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Usdtryanalysis

USDTRY confluence to go longVery similar idea to my EURTRY idea posted yesterday. You can find the link in this post. The price is hitting an ascending trendline (green) dating from February. That is a very strong support. It is also supported by the fact that it is a double bottom and we are seeing bullish signals. RSI confirms this view with a bullish divergence and the pair is very close to an important area of horizontal support and MA200. All that makes me think that price will rebound to the next resistance at 5.812 where it will face resistance by MA50 too. The problem I see in this pair is the 4H chart: First thing we see is that the price action is not very clean and that always concerns me a little bit. We also see that the price is below the MA50 and below the descending trendline (green line) that is pretty much following the MA200. That is a lot of resistance and if we wait to see if it breaks them it will probably be too late to enter the trade as we will be approaching a horizontal level. So what do we do??? We can stay in the sidelines or we can buy at the actual price level (supposing there is no gap on Monday) and place a SL at around 5.589. This level is important because it would mean that the price broke below the ascending trendline and that it broke the closing price of the lowest point on the 5th of July. This is a risky trade but what is life without risk and excitement! Trade safe and share your views in the comments below!
Long
by MicKi
USD/TRY Long Term PossibilityPlease note this trade idea is for demonstration and educational purposes only; it does not constitute a signal. This idea is a long term possibility. Given all factors including fundamentals, no one can with 100% accuracy know for sure that long term ideas will play out. We must follow price action. It will be interesting to see how this pair plays out long term. As I study this pair a few things have caught my eye as follows: 1. We do see more instability with the lira in light of political circumstances especially regarding the re-election that is scheduled to take place. 2019 could be a troublesome year for the lira. 2. From a technical standpoint, we see the possible makings of a teacup. I have highlighted zones where price could hit certain key zones in the market, all within a descending channel before reaching a strong key level of support. This strong level of support happens to offer confluence at the the 50% key level. Price may or may not pull back withing this descending channel. It could push straight down to the 50% fib level without a pullback. 3. Note also the trendline, highlighted in fuchsia, which offers confluence if price pulls back to the 50% fib level. 4. If price bounces off this key level I would expect to see this pair take off to higher highs, especially if the lira continues to deteriorate. Again, please note this idea is for study purposes. Please follow me on Instagram and Facebook (links below). Please also like or comment to offer your insight. As always please trade at your own risk and use proper risk management.
Long
by mrsceleste
USD/TRY Technical Analysis since I was a kid. What is the next?No one has a crystal ball for the Forex market, but what we do have to look at is history. Although past performance does not guarantee future results, when it comes to the Turkish Lira’s current situation, history shows some alarming parallels. The patterns do repeat themselves -- and with good reason. The stock/ Forex market is governed by a set of two principles: supply and demand ; and fear and greed. Both are based on human nature, and human nature doesn't change. In a bear market, all stocks are taken down. Greed gives way to fear, and investors can't sell fast enough. But the smart money sees value in the best stocks and will begin accumulating shares, bidding these stocks up. So, when the market hits bottom, some of these stocks will have already built bases and are back near highs. They get ready to break out and rush to new highs, leading the way once a new bull market begins. And these bases have certain characteristics that show up repeatedly in market cycle after market cycle If you asked 10 people about their strategy you will find one trader among each 10 people. 9 out of each 10 people become traders then end up losing money after few month, weeks or even days. The only person who keeps making money from the stock / Forex market is the smart trader and not the gambler . If you want to make money from the stock market then you must shift your mindset to become more of an trader / investor than a gambler. Gambler might make some profit on the short or even the medium term but sooner or later they end up with losses. Let's start our analysis; After the economic crisis in Turkey ( in Feb 2001 ) , USD / TRY parity was almost stable between 1.3 and 1.6 for 10 years!!! It was not the best investment decision at this time after taking the huge profit! It was 950% up from 1988 to 2002 ! The breaking point was when I decided to leave the country, I am not joking at all. Look at chart. :) One month after I left my hometown, It was a general election in Turkey. Turkey's 17th general election was held on 12 June 2011. Justice and Development Party re-elected with 49.8 % of the vote. And, TRY lost the game against Dollar again. So, How can you understand that it was the best time to buy as a long investor? The first thing I would say is always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea. That way you can be wrong more than twenty times; it will take you a long time to lose your money. I would emphasize that the 5 percent applies to one idea. If you take a long position in two different related grain markets, that is still one idea. The next thing I would advise is to always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point. Pick the weekly chart and look at the chart carefully. 1 ) The 10 years resistance level is broken 2 ) Volume was getting increasing 3 ) MA 50 passed MA 100 4 ) The candle was above the uptrend-line 5 ) The candle was above MA 100 Since May 2011, The candle was always above MA 100. The last time the candle touched MA 100 was in Feb 2013. OK, got it. So, When is the best time to convert TRY to USD for a long time? Be specific. 1 ) When the candle touch MA 100 ( Last time was 6 years ago ) 2 ) When the candle touch MA 50 ( It touched at least once last 17 years, except 2 years - 2015 and 2018 ) More specific? 4.85 and 5.22 will be the next best areas if it drops. If not? Watch out MA 50. Since Nov 2018, The candle was first time above MA 20 , It is a bullish setup for Dollar. Sorry for TRY! USD is super strong as long as it is above MA 20. Today it’s not enough for you to just work and earn a salary. To do the things you want to do, go the places you want to go, and have the things you want to have in your life, you absolutely must save and invest intelligently. The income from your investments and the net gains you can make will let your each your goals and provide real security. No one can hold you back but yourself. What is the USD to TRY exchange rate today? The USD/TRY Forex rate is 5.4 today. Will Dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate grow / rise / go up? Yes. The USD/TRY exchange rate can go up from 5.442 to 6.42 in 2019. Is it profitable to invest in USD/TRY Forex pair? Yes. The long-term earning potential is +18% in one year. Argentine peso JUST HIT the ATL again vs USD dollar THIS WEEK. Last 20 years, Their historical graphics have been identical. Dont surprise if USD / TRY hit 6.42 again. ( All-time highs near 7.24 on August 13, 2018 ) To be successful you always have to be one step ahead of everyone else. **You are an investor / trader, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts. ***Nothing shared or published by me constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or content provided by me be relied upon for any investment activities. I strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.This is not trading advice, and should be used for educational purposes. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose.
Long
by CryptoEngineering
USD/TRY has a 5 wave structure!! (More info in description)From elliot wave analysis, i see that usdtry pair has finished 5 wave structure then started to a-b-c correction. Also at 5,54 price level i see double top formation and during this time, you can see bearish divergences at macd line and histogram so my first expectation from usd/try is to drop around 5,32 price level. Then if inclined support is broken, we can test 5,256 price level which is a minimum target for double top formation. After 5,256 price level, usd/try pair can use inclined support as a resistance to test it again or we can observe more drop to 5,137 price level. ***In this trade, your stop loss should be around 5,47 In addition to techical analysis, Donald Trump had a tweet about Turkey on 14 January and he said "Spoke w/ President Erdogan of Turkey to advise where we stand on all matters including our last two weeks of success in fighting the remnants of ISIS, and 20 mile safe zone. Also spoke about economic development between the U.S. & Turkey - great potential to substantially expand!" Source: twitter.com Here is the rules of Elliot waves you can compare with the chart above; 1- Second wave's low is higher than first wave's low. 2- If second wave makes a sharp correction, 4th wave will make a flat correction or vice a versa. 3-If 3rd wave is the longest wave, the time length of the first wave must be equal to the time length of the fourth. 4-After the 5th wave, A-B-C correction comes and this correction will take us to C level which is very close to low of 4th wave. For more info about double top formation: www.forex.cat I had an analysis about 5th wave failure of usd/try pair in the past which is similiar with this one, it might be useful to check. Hope to see you in our next trades, Have a nice day. Berk
Short
by Mr_Berk
Turkish Lira - Devaluation goes onThe devaluation of the Turkish (new) lira continues to the fullest and shows how strong a current wave 3 is within the impulse wave. The confidence of the own population in the monetary policy decreases more and more and even interest rates on 2-year government bonds of just under 20% and 17% on 10-year government bonds as a foreign investor do not compensate for the losses caused by the devaluation. I expect a further devaluation by at least 20% in the range 5.90 lira for 1 US-Dollar before a short relaxation could start, not must. Best regards Stefan Bode Invest money! Interest or dividend? Stocks or bonds? What are convertible bonds? Real estate or commodities?
Long
by StefanBode
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