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Usdtrylong

How Bad is Turkey Doing?Almost six months after the rate hike which pushed Turkish interest rates to 24%, the Turkish Central Bank wants local banks to use one of two more expensive funding windows, standing at 25.5% and 27% respectively, as it suspended one-week repo auctions for an unspecified period, as it announced on March 22. The announcement came less than a year after the Central Bank said one-week repos would be its main funding tool. The Lira slumped at the announcement, dropping 2,800 pips on the day. While the Lira recovered in the next couple of days, there are still signs of weakening, as the USDTRY has been on rally since the first days of February, gaining approximately 5% year-to-date. Signs of economic deterioration can be found in the country’s data announcements, with a contraction of 3% recorded in 2018Q4. Despite registering growth for the year, mainly based on the first two quarters’ performance, and even though the Finance Minister commented that the country has left the worst behind, recent data releases have not been good: the average unemployment rate increased to 13.5% from 12.3%, Retail Sales are down 6.7% y/y, and the state budget balance recorded a 16.8 Billion deficit compared to a 5.1 Billion surplus in January. Most importantly, the March CPI release on April 3 sees expectations of a rise to 19.9%, compared to 19.67% in February. In the banking sector, things are not doing so well either. As a result of the depreciation, FX deposits increased by 45% y/y, of which 11.9% took place since the beginning of the year. This increase is due to have caused a further depreciation of the Lira, especially considering that resident deposits in TRY are declining. The depreciation caused a major part of the 34% increase in FX loans, while loans in TRY increased marginally. Non-performing loans are also up 39%, reaching 5.3% of total loans, compared to 3.9% a year ago for Deposit Banks. As commented back in August, the Turkish crisis reflects endemic factors, the first being the country’s high dependence on external financing, which appears to have been waning as foreign investors are either pulling out or rethinking investments in the country. This became evident last week as the Central Bank’s international reserves declined by $6.3 billion, to $28.5 billion, or $2.5 billion more than the expected foreign debt repayments, hinting that these funds may have been used to stabilize the currency. As Black Monday showed, forcing the Bank of England to learn fast and the hard way, Central Banks cannot go against the market for a long time. Thus, it is not at all surprising that investment banks such as JP Morgan set the target for the Turkish Lira at 5.90 stating that the pace of FX reserve reductions will be unsustainable. The second endemic factor is none other than the political situation. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is running the country with an iron fist, going as far as probing JP Morgan for its statements, and warning other investors against predicting that the Lira would weaken. Municipal elections on Sunday could turn the tables on Erdogan, who hopes for a win which will allow him to deal more with restoring foreign confidence. However, Erdogan’s usually arrogant stance has put more pressure on the country, with the CDS on the 5-year bond rising to more than 460 bps, a 50% increase from mid-March. In a nutshell, all of the above continue to weigh negatively on the economy, with the government likely to increase spending in order to prevent further deterioration. However, given that the economic situation in Turkey is more linked to political developments than ever, it would take a big turn in country’s approach to foreigners in order to satisfy the markets. Technically, USDTRY just moved past its 200DMA at 5.47 and is trading north of the weak 5.484 Resistance point. Strong Resistance is at 5.60 (Fib. 23.6%), with the next coming at 5.88 (Fib. 38.2%), close to the JP Morgan level of 5.90. Indicators are also showing signs of a rise, as Stochastics appear to have bottomed. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
3
USD/TRY long long longI believe the local election would help to the goverment for next few days and Mr. Albayrak has announced they will show the economic programme in April. But i think that programme will suck cause the Turkey have more serious economical and political problems like unemployment rate is most highest rate before the 2008, the inequality of the Turkish citizens are getting higher. And the biggest problem of Turkey is their growth depend their import products and it cause high number of current deficit. The low TRY would help Turkey to close that deficit. But they have to make reforms which they did in 2002,2003,2004. They should give attention and more care the relationship with USA, Russia and China. President Erdogan has blamed the Jp Morgan for last crash, it doesnt make any sense. If the goverment take reasonable and good positions i would revise my analysis but probably they not and thats my target on TL. Those are just my views not investment advisory.
Long
by alejandrofiles
USD/TRY Technical Analysis since I was a kid. What is the next?No one has a crystal ball for the Forex market, but what we do have to look at is history. Although past performance does not guarantee future results, when it comes to the Turkish Lira’s current situation, history shows some alarming parallels. The patterns do repeat themselves -- and with good reason. The stock/ Forex market is governed by a set of two principles: supply and demand ; and fear and greed. Both are based on human nature, and human nature doesn't change. In a bear market, all stocks are taken down. Greed gives way to fear, and investors can't sell fast enough. But the smart money sees value in the best stocks and will begin accumulating shares, bidding these stocks up. So, when the market hits bottom, some of these stocks will have already built bases and are back near highs. They get ready to break out and rush to new highs, leading the way once a new bull market begins. And these bases have certain characteristics that show up repeatedly in market cycle after market cycle If you asked 10 people about their strategy you will find one trader among each 10 people. 9 out of each 10 people become traders then end up losing money after few month, weeks or even days. The only person who keeps making money from the stock / Forex market is the smart trader and not the gambler . If you want to make money from the stock market then you must shift your mindset to become more of an trader / investor than a gambler. Gambler might make some profit on the short or even the medium term but sooner or later they end up with losses. Let's start our analysis; After the economic crisis in Turkey ( in Feb 2001 ) , USD / TRY parity was almost stable between 1.3 and 1.6 for 10 years!!! It was not the best investment decision at this time after taking the huge profit! It was 950% up from 1988 to 2002 ! The breaking point was when I decided to leave the country, I am not joking at all. Look at chart. :) One month after I left my hometown, It was a general election in Turkey. Turkey's 17th general election was held on 12 June 2011. Justice and Development Party re-elected with 49.8 % of the vote. And, TRY lost the game against Dollar again. So, How can you understand that it was the best time to buy as a long investor? The first thing I would say is always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea. That way you can be wrong more than twenty times; it will take you a long time to lose your money. I would emphasize that the 5 percent applies to one idea. If you take a long position in two different related grain markets, that is still one idea. The next thing I would advise is to always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point. Pick the weekly chart and look at the chart carefully. 1 ) The 10 years resistance level is broken 2 ) Volume was getting increasing 3 ) MA 50 passed MA 100 4 ) The candle was above the uptrend-line 5 ) The candle was above MA 100 Since May 2011, The candle was always above MA 100. The last time the candle touched MA 100 was in Feb 2013. OK, got it. So, When is the best time to convert TRY to USD for a long time? Be specific. 1 ) When the candle touch MA 100 ( Last time was 6 years ago ) 2 ) When the candle touch MA 50 ( It touched at least once last 17 years, except 2 years - 2015 and 2018 ) More specific? 4.85 and 5.22 will be the next best areas if it drops. If not? Watch out MA 50. Since Nov 2018, The candle was first time above MA 20 , It is a bullish setup for Dollar. Sorry for TRY! USD is super strong as long as it is above MA 20. Today it’s not enough for you to just work and earn a salary. To do the things you want to do, go the places you want to go, and have the things you want to have in your life, you absolutely must save and invest intelligently. The income from your investments and the net gains you can make will let your each your goals and provide real security. No one can hold you back but yourself. What is the USD to TRY exchange rate today? The USD/TRY Forex rate is 5.4 today. Will Dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate grow / rise / go up? Yes. The USD/TRY exchange rate can go up from 5.442 to 6.42 in 2019. Is it profitable to invest in USD/TRY Forex pair? Yes. The long-term earning potential is +18% in one year. Argentine peso JUST HIT the ATL again vs USD dollar THIS WEEK. Last 20 years, Their historical graphics have been identical. Dont surprise if USD / TRY hit 6.42 again. ( All-time highs near 7.24 on August 13, 2018 ) To be successful you always have to be one step ahead of everyone else. **You are an investor / trader, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts. ***Nothing shared or published by me constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or content provided by me be relied upon for any investment activities. I strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.This is not trading advice, and should be used for educational purposes. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose.
Long
by CryptoEngineering
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 56 (0.466 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It looks like we are finally getting some volatility and this is very exciting. In order for me to succeed with this challenge I need a big trend that I am able to enter into early in the game. The chop that has occurred over the last two months has been very difficult to trade. If USDTRY can resume it’s bullish trend then it is game on. I am ready to bet big on this one, but as always will be starting small. The 4h chart recently had a red 9 at support and that was a good opportunity for me to start building a position. Next I am watching for a golden cross with the 50 and 200 EMA’s. After that I will be watching for the same golden cross but on the Daily. If that goes as expected then I will be building a long position of ~10 BTC. If all goes according to plan and then my most conservative target gets hit I will be back in the green for this challenge. The chances of that happening are realistic but not necessarily to be expected. As long as I continue to diligently manage risk and wait for ideal entries then I am confident I can get this challenge going in the right direction in the allotted time frame. The crypto markets are also very interested for the first time in months. It is right on the verge of making a big move as far as I can tell. To learn more about what I am watching for see the Watchtower below as well as the 335th day of the Bitcoin Daily Update . Open Positions Exposure: 0.14 lots (3.66 BTC) Long USDTRY Enter: $5.3107 Stop: $5.236 Risk: 1.39% Watchtower USDTRY Notes: Price getting squeeze in between 50 & 200 EMA’s on 4h and D. Gameplan: Add if 4h GC. Add on D GC if not too far away from price. Close > $5.56 is another signal to add Target: $6.55 (ATH Retest) & $8.00 (Big W Target) ETHBTC Patterns: Descending triangle. Notes: Getting squeezed between 50 & 200 D EMA’s with beautiful cupping pattern Target: 0.07 if break triangle to upside Gameplan: Waiting to see how market reacts to Hard Fork. The technicals are very bullish, but Hard Forks are generally a sell. This might be different since there is no alt token being created. ETHUSD Notes: First bullish crossover with 4 & 9 week EMA’s since April 23, 18. Only the 2nd since Feb 2017. Gameplan: Same as above LTCBTC Notes: Weekly golden cross with price above 200 W EMA. Gameplan: If BTC can close a daily above $3,922 then I will be looking for longs. Will enter on LTC if ETH hard fork hasn’t happened yet.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
4