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Usdtrylong

2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 8 (1.682 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Today was another very productive day. I spent about an hour talking with someone from Tyler Jenks hyperwave Telegram group, of which I am also a member, about the underlying fundamentals going on in Turkey that could be leading to the massive hyperwave the Lira is experiencing. He seemed convinced that it is all due to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline and after our discussion I am strongly inclined to agree. “In 2012 an analyst cited by Ansa Mediterranean suggested that Qatar's involvement in the Syrian Civil War was based in part on its desire to build a pipeline to Turkey through Syria: The discovery in 2009 of a new gas field near Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Syria opened new possibilities to bypass the Saudi Barrier and to secure a new source of income.” (1) The Lira broke out of phase 1 in 2013 and according to Tyler Jenks this signals a major economic shift (when a hyperwave follows). From my understanding Turkey was allied with Russia for their energy needs and in 2012 they went all in on a pipeline that would help them become more self-sustaining and less reliant on Russia. The United States and European Union were likely all to willing to help in order to cut into Russia’s economy and worldwide influence. Turkey housed Syrian refugees and made political alignments with the EU and United States that likely alienated them from Russia. That was okay though because in exchange for housing Syrian refugees they expected to become a member of the EU. “The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry” Now it seems like the EU is reneging on their end of the deal, for one reason or another. Turkey is threatening to kick out the Syrian refugees and it seems like the Turks could find themselves without any allies, without a pipeline and with refugees that they likley cannot afford to support for much longer. Meanwhile their currency is experiencing hyperinflation and it appears that it will only get worse. Now I have 15 minutes until pool league starts and hopefully that will leed to some lighter conversation! Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0369 BTC Realised PnL: -0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.131 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.057 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49. Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position *1/8/19 SCALE OUT: Have been waiting for price to move in my favor so that I can decrease exposure due to mistake I made when entering. Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 | Max calculated risk = 0.1632 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.042 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.039 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0866 BTC Notes: Made mistake of entering 0.8 lots ($80,000) instead of 0.08 lots ($8,000) and have been waiting / hoping for price to move in my favor so that I could remedy that mistake. Go a bounce today that allowed me to re evaluate my risk. By scaling out of 75% of the position I have limited my risk to 7.5% of my bankroll for this challenge and that is much more acceptable. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.2226 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge. Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Margin: 0.063 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.066 BTC Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC Notes: Consensio is telling me to fully scale out. However we are currently at horizontal and trend resistance. Therefore I set a stop loss order slightly above resistance. That is only 0.3% away from my current price and the difference between exiting now and then would be nominal. However the difference of being able to hold onto my position and not capitalize on a big loss, in the event resistance holds, is very significant. Therefore I much prefer the risk:reward of a market stop loss at 1.1501 instead of exiting now at 1.1475. Open Orders Stop Market to long 0.82288 XBTH19 @ $4,037. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Also like how strong support is holding after the last pump. Stop Market to long ETHUSD @ $160.20. Reason for entry is Consensio being fully bullish and $160 being boundary line for c&h + ascending triangle Stop Market to short XAUUSD @ $1,274.89. Reason for entry is that would create a lower low and break down parabolic advance. Watchtower BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. Currently have stop order set to long at $160.2. *1/8/19: Price re entering cloud after kumo breakthrough + Kumo Twist. Watching for support at $125. LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I prefer to wait for a close above the daily cloud. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weely chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry. EURUSD: Formed h&s and then whipsawed everyone who tried to trade it. Now it appears to be forming a bear flag below major resistance. It is also support above the 200 week MA and trying to reverse that 5 year bear trend. Sources: en.wikipedia.org
Long
by Sawcruhteez
4
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 6 (1.737 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. Please be advised that I trade on high leverage and am comfortable with the risks. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It's been another long day today. I'm not drinking tonight either and at this moment I would really enjoy a cold one. This certainly isn't how I wanted to start this challenge but it's way too early to get worried. The big positions I have are short SPX500 and long USDTRY. Those look like they are in bad shape but I still have big hopes for a turn around in the next week. If one of those positions goes in my favor then it should make up for all the losses that I've taken so far. I think this week is very important for anyone who is trying something new this year. I don't think most people who make New Year's resolutions make it past the first week or two and that is usually because it doesn't feel like the results are matching the effort. Good thing I know that anyone who has made it this far in BTC has far more resilience than that. Through experience we know that by remaining resolute, consistent and disciplined we will achieve our goals. Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 ADJUSTED STOP: Stop moved to breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0266 BTC Realised PnL: +0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.176 BTC Notes: P < S MA is a signal from Consensio to scale out 5%. However this is a Hyperwave and that supersedes Consensio in regards to exiting. Hyperwave waits for a weekly close below the phase line and exits fully. Consensio is used for entering Hyperwaves because Hyperwave doesn’t have objective entry guidelines (as far as I know). Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.05578 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49. Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.63 lots ($63,000) Margin: 0.1657 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0983 BTC Realized PnL: -0.031745 BTC Notes: Intended to add 0.08 lots on 1/4/19 and instead added 0.8 lots. Big mistake that could end up costing me huge. Have set market stop loss at $279.33 to ensure that it doesn’t get away from me too much. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’sl (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.153 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Botched this trade due to miscalculating the projected risk (see Worst Dressed List below). Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Margin: 0.063 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0355 BTC Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC Notes: Adjusted projected risk and set a market stop loss at 1.15010. If that gets triggered then I will lose approximately 0.09 BTC. That is about twice as much as I want to risk based on the Consensio guidelines and that is because I did not do a good job of projecting risk yesterday. This position is an early front runner for January’s Worst Dressed List. Closed Positions Long: XRPM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 CLOSE OUT: P < S MA < flat L MA < bearish M MA Enter: 0.00009702 Exit: 0.00009177 & 0.00009228 Exposure: 5,385 Ripple (0.522 BTC) Realized PnL: -0.0302 BTC Notes: Even though Consensio signaled an entry I should have waiting for breakout of ascending triangle / c&h and should have been ready with a stop entry. However since risk was properly managed and I stuck to the guidelines I feel good about this trade. Watchtower ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below. XAUUSD: Price back above trendline and appears to be turning it back into support. However it is also getting dangerously close to breaking down the parabolic advance. It it does then an 80% decline would be expected which would indicate a return to $1,200. The RSI is pulling back from overbought territory. Watch for a bear div. USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry. Best and Worst Dressed Trades from 1/1/19 through 1/6/19 Worst Dressed SPX500 Short The trade that I am least pleased about is my S&P 500 short. The primary reason for my dismay is the expected risk that I used. I used horizontal resistance at $2,520 to determine my expected risk and thus my leverage and exposure. I knew for sure that I would want to hold onto this position through $2,600 due to the neckline from the h&s as well as the very bearish 33 MA. I should tend to be even more conservative then that and would like if I used $2,650 to calculate my expected risk. The reason I didn’t use the correct number to calculate my risk was primarily. The tighter the expected risk I go with the more leverage and exposure it allows me. I am very confident that the S&P has entered a bear market and I am expected a big move to the downside over the next few months. Therefore I am inclined to max out my exposure on this trade. I am used to trading with strict stop losses and that is the biggest difference for me with Consensio. There will definitely be a learning curve. That miscalculation has put me in a very bad spot. The unrealized profit on this trade is currently -0.153 BTC and I will not be getting any more signals from Conensio to exit as long as we are below the bearish L MA. If the price does rally to $2,650 before I am able to fully scale out then I would be looking at a ~0.5 BTC loss on this trade. Absolutely unacceptable to risk ~25% of my Challenge bankroll on one position. It should be nearer a fifth or a tenth of that at risk. There should be a lot of resistance at $2,600 and I will be watching closely for that to hold. If it does then this could quickly turn into a very profitable position and alleviate a lot of the anxiety that it is causing me. USDHUF Long This was more of an honest mistake that I will not beat myself too much over. I go through dozens of calculations per day to determine how to manage my positions / cash. A mistake is bound to happen. Unfortunately this mistake is a scary one, exposing $80,000 instead of $8,000 that should have been. If the Hungarian Forint moved against me on Friday (like most of the USD longs did) then it would have put me into a world of hurt and would have cost me more than 10% of my bankroll. Luckily that didn’t happen and I am able to start scaling out, due to Consensio, today. Since this was not done out of greed I am not as worried about it. Nevertheless I will do my best to be more careful next time. Best Dressed ZAR (didn’t overexpose), BTC (was patient, stuck with the game plan, didn’t overexpose) USDZAR Long This is a trade that has had me drooling over the past few weeks. If US equities enter bear market then the USD should rally. I am bearish the stock market and bullish the USD. When bullish the USD I like to long it against the weakest currencies that I can find, TRY, ZAR, MXN, instead of the more common EUR, JPY GBP pairs. The South African Rand formed a very nice cup and handle throughout 2018 and finally brokethrough the bear trendline on August. It then proceeded to consolidate in a bull flag type of pattern above the trendline and cup and handle. Furthermore the 200 MA is in a very bullish posture. With all of those factors combined I was / am about as bullish as can be on USDZAR. The price recently spent a few weeks above the flag pattern and it would have been very easy for me to get greedy and overexpose myself like I did with the SPX500 short. Eventhough this trade has moved against me significantly that is okay because my risk is properly managed. It isn’t a great feeling when the first up on my best dressed list is a big loser but that is okay because I am sticking to the process and learning from my mistakes. BTC Long If I am not mistaken this is my only position that is currently in the green and therefore I felt obliged to include it on this list. There were a number of reasons why I prefered to look for shorts on BTC (see Daily Update from last few days). Mainly due to the built up resistance from $4,000 - $4,200, the thick Ichimoku Cloud, as well as most people seeing the i h&s / c&h and my lack of belief in patterns that most recognize. Nevertheless I stuck to Consensio and entered the long due to the L MA turning slightly bullish, the golden cross, the bullish cross with the S & M MA. This is a great example of why it is extremely important to stick to a system and not let personal feelings / emotions get in the way. When positions move against you it is important not to take it personally and when they go in your favor it is important to control feelings of euphoria / ego. Knowing that the system you are trading is what got you in those positions can make all of the difference in the world.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
Turkish Lira - Devaluation goes onThe devaluation of the Turkish (new) lira continues to the fullest and shows how strong a current wave 3 is within the impulse wave. The confidence of the own population in the monetary policy decreases more and more and even interest rates on 2-year government bonds of just under 20% and 17% on 10-year government bonds as a foreign investor do not compensate for the losses caused by the devaluation. I expect a further devaluation by at least 20% in the range 5.90 lira for 1 US-Dollar before a short relaxation could start, not must. Best regards Stefan Bode Invest money! Interest or dividend? Stocks or bonds? What are convertible bonds? Real estate or commodities?
Long
by StefanBode
8
USDTRY Falling Wedge Breakout is Imminent - Long Term IdeaUSDTRY has a falling wedge formation on the weekly chart. If this week closes above 5.31 falling wedge breakout will be confirmed. Stoch RSI is extremely oversold on the weekly chart. Tom Demark count gave a red 9 and counted extra 3 bars. In upcoming weeks I expect a bullish rally to start. Here is my long term trading idea: Long at: 5.26 - 5.31 Take profit at: 5.43 - 5.75 - 5.82 Stop loss: 5.04 ***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Long
by EylemCulculoglu
USDTRY - Get Ready For A Bullish BreakoutUSDTRY counted red 9 according to Tom Demark count. After red 9 we expect a trend reversal. Weekly Stoch RSI is at historically low levels. Bollinger Bands are very narrow at the daily chart. I expect a bullish breakout within this month. Major resistance areas are: 5.33 (daily MA20), 5.43 (fib 0.5) and 5.72 (weekly MA20). Major support is at: 5.05 (fib 0.618) Here is my long term trading idea: Long at: 5.20-5.22 Take profit levels: 5.30 - 5.41 - 5.70 Stop loss: 5.00
Long
by EylemCulculoglu
USDTRY - the pleasure and pain will be mine.USDTRY is a very tricky exotic pair to tackle. The exotics on the whole are erratic and offer may traps and false breakouts. This is a dangerous pair and not recommended for those without experience of exotics. On this occasion I'm departing from my system of 'rules' because I'm dealing with such a wild 'animal'. I have experience of exotics doing false breakouts against my favoured direction. I'm not saying there is going to be one on this occasion, but I'm prepared for it. I stand to take loss which is acceptable. Notably most Tradingview posts are about good news in terms of positive expectations (whether long or short); not about losing positions. This is not surprising, is it? There is an unconscious need to present mainly good positions. I'm breaking the mould. I'm not afraid to show that I can lose.
Long
by Captain_Walker