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Usdtrylong

USDTRY- BUY strategyWe have moved above 10.50-11.00 and we broke through the FALSE BEAR FLAG channel upwards. Looking at the GANN square, we are observing a break-out of the previous GANN angle and in a new square with support at 12.62. The MA is positive, and the MACD is is moving slowly to positive (it always is lagging) and the DMI is positive USDTRY. My feel is we go back 15-17 ranges, and who knows even above 18s. The MONTHLY CHART we have to observe closely once we have reached a correction upwards. But for now remain long with stop below 12.00 and profit target 15-50-16.00.
Long
by peterbokma
3
USD/TRY Turkish Lira UpdateThis week has seen the USD/Turkish Lira exchange rate drop from a high of 18.25 TL per Dollar to a close at 11 TL per Dollar. In my previous idea published in January 2021. The concepts I laid out in that idea are still valid. The curve I drew still holds intact. RSI is still rising in the parallel channel. The recent spike has seen RSI reach even higher value than ever before. I still hold that this trend will continue until 2026 where the exchange rate will be 18 TL for the Dollar; and I'm talking about the normal stable every day rate, not a temporary spike like in the past month. Another thing to notice is the volatility. The previous spike in January 2017 reached a high that is 30% above my curve. The spike in September 2018 reached a high 71% above the curve, and lastly, the December 2021 spike reached a high 104% above the curve. As we go further in this trend, the spikes will be more volatile and we could see the rate triple in a matter of weeks, only to come back down the following week. This instability severely disturbs daily transactions both domestic and international which will push foreign investors away from Turkey. Already many investors are prepared to slowly pull out their capital as they say this instability occur right at the time of closing the books at the end of the year. Turks are already pricing their goods in Dollar and Euro having little confidence in the value of the TL. These factors will only worsen the situation in the coming years, and their effect is not seen immediately, but over months and years. Without a fundamental policy change, this trend will continue. Trust in the Turkish Central Bank is dropping as hard as the currency is. Throughout 2020, The Turkish government has been the biggest buyer of gold in the world, but they have been also the biggest seller of gold in the same year. The Central Bank is confused as is actually trading gold like an uncertain irresponsible child. The responsible thing to do is to peg the currency to either the Dollar, the Euro, Gold or even better, Bitcoin. It will cause a shock, but it will also bring security, stability and prosperity in less than a decade. You can follow this chart here . Follow me for updates on this chart and others.
Long
by TechNerdOmar
12
USDTRY- careful BUY strategyThe daily chart has developed a FALSE BEAR FLAG pattern. The flag channel is wide ranging between 11.28 and low 9.12s. This type of pattern usually suggest a sharp upward move, and that is why BUYING is advised. the question is where we do we buy. My previous buy level was 11.50-12.00, but think we should lower that now. I feel we buy or add 10.25-10.75 and after 9.50-9.75. The profit levels will be placed 13.75-15.00. It is no issue holding longs, but keep in mind that the stop-loss level is lower now and below 9.00. As a note: keep your positions to a very low leverage and add tiny to it if we fall. The market is still uncertain and there are still some USD longs out there from long-term perspective. For long-term I remain SELL 13.50-15.00 and profit 8.75-9.00.
Long
by peterbokma
5
Turkish Lira is far from recovery. This is just a quick look at the USDTRY pair. I'm evaluating the recent recovery of the Turkish Lira versus the dollar from about 8.5 TL per dollar to 7.3 TL. In my estimation, this recovery has not shown enough strength to continue. We can see that as soon as it touched the bottom of the drawn curve, RSI has reached the bottom of its parallel channel. That's as far as this recovery will go. In fact, I think the next five years will see the USD appreciate against the TL by 150%, which is exactly as much as it has appreciated during the past five years. This will take it all the way up to 18TL by February 2026. This signal I consider strong enough to predict a complete reversal of this trend is significant RSI divergence, i.e., a higher high in price coinciding with a lower high in RSI. We have seen one instance of slight RSI divergence shown in the chart which has contributed to a recovery in August 2018 from 7.08 to 5.13 TL. That is 27.5% appreciation for the dollar. To imagine what a significant RSI divergence would look like, consider the most recent top on 2 Nov 2020. Look at the RSI level on that same day. We're looking for a higher top in price where RSI is significantly lower, ideally within the blue zone. That would be a strong signal for trend reversal. Another thing to notice is the blue zone and the ascending parallel channel. What's the meaning of the blue zone? When RSI climbs above it, the asset is said to be overbought. It means that price has went up too high too fast without enough real demand backing it up. However, that interpretation really depends on the parameter used. A better, easier and more reliable way to use RSI is to look for RSI divergence like I explained. That becomes even more relevant for this chart when you notice how RSI levels have been steadily climbing in the parallel channel shown. That means that the overbought zone becomes less and less significant as an indication. But it also means that TL recovery phases will be more and more volatile.
Long
by TechNerdOmar