Usdtrylong
USD/TRY is going in an uptrend channel to 5,92Due to short of cash in Turkey, USD is gaining power against TRY day by day. We can see some small corrections to support of chnanel like 5,78 - 5,80 but the trend is going upwards since 5,50's.
Uptrending channel will meet with the resistance at the end of August and than we can see some steep movements probably upwards or maybe some corrections. Until than, I expect the value will continue to 5,9x
USD/TRY is forming a second pennant move We can see on the half hour graph that USDTRY is forming a second pennant formation.
We have to wait and see other indicators to support this move such as Parabolic SAR and RSI. Moving average is crossing the bollinger middle band as I'm publishing this. Volume is getting higher in each stick forms. Also bollinger bands narrowed down for a move. Target of this pennant will be around 5,81
This morning price made a false break of pennant support. Just like it did on the first pennant formation. And the steep uptrend started right after this false break. Most probably that false break stopped many people's trade.
Bullish pennant formation on USD/TRYDue to Turkish holiday TRY will be traded weakly until Thursday. At these times, values can be more volatile.
We can clearly see the bullish pennant formation on USD/TRY. Tomorrow we have to carefully watch the value. If it will break the pennants resistance, value may go up to 5,62-5,65 channel. We can see that there will be a steep movement from the narrowed bollinger bands.
Parabolic SAR shows the downturn and also moving average does not support the upmove so that we can also expect a steep down move. In case of a down break reaction, we have to watch 5,53 support line.
Good luck all.
USD/TRY Take a Step Back - Higher Timeframe AnalysisThis post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Please refer to my previous analysis today (below). This gives a high level overview of long term what we can see happen in the market with this pair. We have a descending wedge forming, alongside trendline confluence, and a bounce off the 61.8 fib level. Trade at your own risk. As this is high level outlook there is a lot of price action that goes on in the lower time frame. Most retail traders have to drill into lower time frame to capture pips on short price action. (see previous trade idea below)
USDTRY confluence to go longVery similar idea to my EURTRY idea posted yesterday. You can find the link in this post.
The price is hitting an ascending trendline (green) dating from February. That is a very strong support. It is also supported by the fact that it is a double bottom and we are seeing bullish signals. RSI confirms this view with a bullish divergence and the pair is very close to an important area of horizontal support and MA200.
All that makes me think that price will rebound to the next resistance at 5.812 where it will face resistance by MA50 too.
The problem I see in this pair is the 4H chart:
First thing we see is that the price action is not very clean and that always concerns me a little bit. We also see that the price is below the MA50 and below the descending trendline (green line) that is pretty much following the MA200. That is a lot of resistance and if we wait to see if it breaks them it will probably be too late to enter the trade as we will be approaching a horizontal level.
So what do we do???
We can stay in the sidelines or we can buy at the actual price level (supposing there is no gap on Monday) and place a SL at around 5.589. This level is important because it would mean that the price broke below the ascending trendline and that it broke the closing price of the lowest point on the 5th of July.
This is a risky trade but what is life without risk and excitement!
Trade safe and share your views in the comments below!
USDTRY - Expanding wedge offers upside baisFX:USDTRY
OANDA:USDTRY
SAXO:USDTRY
USDTRY - Intraday - We look to Buy at 5.6870 (stop at 5.6525)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 47 days. Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation. The medium term bias remains bullish. The trend of lower highs is located at 5.7905. However, with the intraday chart now highlighting higher lows we are possibly forming an ascending triangle pattern. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 5.6870, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 5.7900 and 5.8000
Resistance: 5.7905 / 5.8000 / 5.9500
Support: 5.6870 / 5.6460 / 5.6300
USDTRY Decision Time is CloseSo far price was loyal to the descending wedge formation, and as expected, 200 EMA held the defense perfectly. Parabolic support also seems to be working.
Next step will be conquering the 20 & 100 EMA resistances along with the upper line of the descending wedge formation. All these converged on the same zone (the area shown as faint white box), which made that zone super important.
20 EMA is about to cross 100 EMA, which would create downward price pressure. However MACD and RSI all bullish.
If the price breaks the descending wedge formation, buy orders will surely increase.
If the price breaks yellow price level (5.84-85) I consider that as the second confirmation for the rally.
Green price level would be the final confirmation for the next big rally.
Fundamental developments are all against TRY unfortunately. (CB president just sacked by Erdogan unlawfully, Fitch downgraded Turkey's credit rating again, S400 related developments might cause more pressure from the US (like more sanctions?) etc...)
USD/TRY Trade Idea - Low Risk/High Reward Set UpThis idea is for educational and demonstration purposes and does not constitute a signal. If you take this trade, you do so at your own risk. This is simply an idea and not a guarantee.
We have the following confluences:
1. Trendline as noted; price has tested this trendline on now the fourth occasion
2. Price is also sitting at a key fib level 61.8% from last swing points.
3. Price is currently sitting on key demand zone, and appears to be respecting this zone.
4. Descending channel; we can expect an outbreak to the upside. How far, we can only presume (hence the TP1 and TP2)
5. We show divergence on the H4
TP1: 275 pips
TP2: 525 pips
I suggest placing the stop loss around 40-50 pips beneath the trendline as noted. You want to allow more room because of this trade's usual price action, so you will not get stopped out. I suggest allowing the market to digest a little on market open on this Sunday and analyzing this again; We know this pair is known to open with gaps, so we have to adjust our trade ideas accordingly. This offers a low risk to great reward set up.
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