USDTRY-SELL strategyToday first time again to come out of neutral :)
The stochastic is negative, and as long as we hold 13.90-13.92, we should remain short.
The profit objective for the short-term trade is 11.65 for now.
Usdtrysell
USDTRY- SELL strategyThe daily chart is a RANGE only with resistance 13.85 and if broken for any meaningful upwards move.
The weekly chart is MID WAY and we have FIB. supports and resistances to play with (as shown).
Judging MONTHLY CHART and WEEKLY CHART it feels we should be on SELL side, even if it moves little higher, these are ADDING levels only. I suggest SELL 13.50-15.50 range for a corrective move to 10.50. The MONTHLY chart has had no correction really, and the RSI of 86.0 is very overbought, and usually we need the RSI to go back to 60.0 or lower to relieve the pressure.
the market is for that reason still LONG USD and an objective of 10.50 or lower 9.50 is still very much on the cards from a medium-term prespective. short-term we have no specific direction for now.
USDT Dominence Forming A Bullish Flag And Btcusdt Bearish flagif usdt Breakout up side then Whole Market will ll bearish soon
On 4Hour Timeframe
USDT Dominence Forming A Bullish Flag And Otherhand
Btcusdt Forming a Bearish Flag
So Beacreful adjust Your Stop loss
Not a financial Advice
posible 32k and 29k in soon in days
USDTRY-RANGE and feel upside biasWe have not changed an inch almost on the currency pair, and that is worrying. It is like flipping of a coin in seeking direction.
For now, SELL strategy better fit since we are near resistance 14.25 (14.3500 stop-loss) and also we are moving below the cloud coming sessions. This is usually a negative sign so I still believe we see lower 11.80-10.50 short-term.
Once the resistance 14.23 is broken, will ignite sharper up move.
USDTRY-SELL Long-termIn case today is a disappointing day, i.e. rate cut instead of no change, we will see higher USDTRY. For long-term this would be excellent, and I feel selling long-term between 13.50 and 15.75-16.50 is a good strategy.
The monthly chart RSI is very high, and has not corrected much. A move higher will make it attractive for adding shorts.
The objective is 9.6200 for now.
USDTRY-NEUTRAL with slightly down side biasWe are still ranging with no major movements at all. This is always suspect, because we cannot be sure which way it will go.
Basing on the MACD we are still have downside bias (as a lagging indicator). The stochastic is positive (not shown), and we are well protected resistances at 13.90-14.23-14.29 for now. The Donchian channel is closing in as well.
Monday or Tuesday we will be below the cloud if no change in direction and resistance is 14.23 once again.
I feel still feel ok with short at 13.25-13.75 for a move to 11.80 > 10.05. A break above 14.30 would mean we may see 15.50-16.00 range, but these will be long-term selling levels. I am not inclined to buy right now because of the fact that the monthly chart is way overbought still.
USDTRY-RANGE with SELL biasWelcome to dream land. The range is same every day, but slowly we are moving below cloud by default. Maybe 3-4 more days and we will have 13.60 cloud resistance. Further, strong resistance 14.23. The Donchian support is only 10.20 for now.
My view remains same, SELL current 13.25-13.75 range for a move back to 11.80 > 10.20 short-term.
LONG-TERM SELL 13.50-16.50 for 9.0000 objective.
USDTRY-RANGING down side biasNo change in view, and in fact rates are still the same as yesterday and the day before etc.
Think we will see a move lower and short still the way to go. However, keep stop loss at 14.35 in case we break the upper range.
Objective unchanged 11.80-10.75 short-term.
USDTRY-SELL strategyI am updating the strategy now the Monday has started. Further, someone requested me to forecast 1st and 2nd Quarter USDTRY so will try my best.
The stochastic is currently negative again, and since we have fundamentally strong SELLING pressure upto 21st January and end of month, the cap is likely well protected 13.77-14.2500. Technically we have never been able to reach much above any of them for a prolonged period of time, and besides 14.00 never was assaulted. This tells a story and we should be taking that into account.
For now, I liquidate LONG (in profit in fact), and go short in 13.45-13.75 range. Stop-loss above 14.35 (for safety reasons). My initial objective is 11.80. 1st Quarter: January I expect average 12.50, February 11.50, March 10.75. The low is expected for the 1st Quarter to be 9.75 and the high 13.50. For the 2nd Quarter we may see little higher ranges and I feel we should have an average for April 12.50, May 13.00 and June 14.00. I feel after we have declined to the lows in 1st Quarter, market will condition the rate to move slowly higher. Anyway, let's see how it all develops, and will update if any changes. have a great day everyone.
USDTRY- SELL strategy (4-hourly)We have been ranging for a while now, and the stochastic is negative. For a 4-hourly chart a negative stochastic can reach a 1.30 points down move to satisfy the stochastic. This means from 13.80 back to 12.50, and the cloud support is 12.00 right now.
I suggest remain short, or go short current 13.8000-14.15 and keep stop-loss 14.35 still.
Profit order 12.25-12.50. After we have reached that we re-access the market.
USDTRY- SELL strategyThe 4-hourly Ichimoku chart starts showing support for USDTRY upwards.
However, the stochastic viewing historic performance, the stochastic is negative, and this shows we do have selling pressure.
The open cloud support is at 13.00 right now, and this is what I mean by support for the USDTRY.
For now remain short and keep stop-loss 14.2500 and if broken, we may likely see above 15.50 again.
USDTRY- SELL strategyNo change in view. The MA-10 vs MA-30 still negative (but turning) and the DMI positive but weak.
Market is not showing clear wish to move higher.
I prefer still short with tight stop-loss above 14.20 (let's say 14.35), as a breach may open the way to 15.50-16.25, before down again.
For now keep profit order at 10.50-11.00.
USDTRY - SELL strategyNo change in view. Remain SHORT for now with a stop-loss 14.35.
The DMI is positive, but the NEW MOON phase is useful in advising on potential turning, and NEW MOON means expected downward move. It is based on moon cycles and it appears to help a lot along other indicators, is my view.
Strategy SELL current 13.25-13.75 for profit order 10.50-11.00.
USDTRY-SELL strategyThe slowness of move suggest that we are in a more balanced environment. The BULLS and BEARS are exchanging positions only.
This suggests that we may have difficulty moving beyond 14.25 for now, and I feel that SELL strategy makes sense looking at the GANN angle resistance and the room we have to move lower.
Strategy sell current 13.25-13.75 and place stop-loss above 14.25 (keep some room) and ensure small position sizes only. Profit order to be placed 10.50-11.00 once again.
For LONG TERM players no stop and add on highr levels, but profit level at 9.46 for now.
USDTRY - cautious SELL strategyThe USDTRY pair starts looking tired. It does not seem to trend upwards.
The 4-hourly chart starts looking negative, i.e. the 10-MA vs 30-MA turning and ikely may break. The stochastic is negative, and the DMI is flat and DMI+ below signal line. Further, providing we remain below 14.25, the chances are we move lower 10.50-10.75.
Today am preferred SELL at current 13.20-13.50 and place stop-loss at 14.35. If broker, re-sell 15.25-15.50.
Profit order 10.75 for now.
USDTRY-SELL strategy medium-termUSDTRY remains defying gravity.
No change of my medium-term view, and as you can see the channel resistance and support levels are the boundaries.
The fast weakening of the TRY no doubt will improve the export base, and therefore natural TY inflows, i.e. the buying of TRY.
Medium-term we will see 12.00- 10.35 to correct the rocket upward move. The timing, who knows, but gravity will set in.
Play it safe and add very careful shorts to USDTRY.
USDTRY- LARGE DECLINE EXPECTEDI am unchangeable to my view point. It is even misunderstood.
The view is medium-term here, whilst the short-term charts are similarly suggesting an imminent decline coming.
it is obvious that interest rate policy has weakened sharply, and this against the standard view of managing inflation.
The export base is good for Turkey, and the extreme weakening of the TRY will grow the exports even faster, and then you will get an offset of natural selling of USDTRY medium-term. China has done this, but differently.
The increase of minimum wages by 50% in Turkey does not help inflation.
Ok fundamentals we know, but what now... SELL USDTRY for first corrective move to 12.35 (reduce position here for re-sell). Ultimately we will see 10.05>10.50. Only then I feel we will see much higher.
USDTRY- Short term SELL 4-hourly chartSell USDTY 15.00-15.25 for move to 14.29 > 12.75.
Market is awaiting news, but may be disappointing.
USDTRY - D-DAY ?Today will be quite a day, either sharply up or down. My personal view, remains medium-term SELL.
The FIB time cycles on weekly chart suggests we are nearing the end of the cycle, and further we are trying to move beyond GANN resistance, but am still worried about the stellar steepness of the increase.
I have no issue seeing long-term 15-16-17 handles, but first we need to move back towards 10.25-11.25 to relieve the pressures.
Today is D-Day as we may see either rate cuts or not. The question is also how much. this should be far build-in the market and therefore the chance of a sharp decline is far greater than not.
It is a personal view point and choice. needless to say, good luck for today.
USDTRY - SELL strategyIt seems comments coming my way to stop writing about USDTRY.
Personally I can't see why I should. I have been working too long in this market and this way i can help others.
In the end of the day, it's each ones decision to agree or not. For me not an issue.
It is clear Turkey's monetary policy is quite different approach, and that has spooked the market. Tomorrow expectation of more rate cuts, keeps it up high. The question is, is the market LONG USDTRY or SHORT? I guess very LONG and besides, the reason we are here is just because of the possible further rate cuts. Thee are some banks in USA betting on even a much weaker Turkish Lia for 2022 and 2023. We all can read that no doubt.
Now back to the drawing board. Short-term and medium and long term, we are in uncharted territory, and I have seen it before during Italian Lira crisis.
USDTRY RSI is near 95.0 weekly chart... monthly near 89.0 and daily 83.0 again. We will correct back to 11.25 > 10.25.
PLEASE DO NOT GO LONG... yes it can spike... but a rocket rising that sharp will fall sharp as well... anyway... let us see tomorrow... best regards all and good luck on this one.
USDTRY- LARGE DECLINE EXPECTED - PART 2Someone mentioned that interest rates in Turkey will decline to 5% by Thursday. I think that seems something out of this world.
Anyway, looking at FIB circle, it is clear we have been in stellar mode, or its similar to viewing SpaceEx rocket material.
No honestly, i prefer to be view this market as it is. Market is VERY LONG USDTY and any disappointment in rates (not reducing) may be the catalyst for the large decline.
I keep the same strategy SELL current levels 14.25 and upwards and reduce 12.50 and resell on move back 13.50 and then go for the ultimate buy-back 10.25-10.75.
in the meantime good luck for Thursday.
USDTRY - CONTINUE SELL The candle stick patterns provide clues on the state of the market. Hammer (inverted) top (cross) plus evening star, and RSI 93.0 for the weekly does not bode well for the longs.
Sad to say, I remain steadfast in the belief that we will in fact have a collapse downwards. The GANN resistance 14.62 and 14.30 were attracted yesterday, and no doubt placed fears into then mind of people. Run away trucks are never fun to watch and I fully get it.
However, regardless the circumstances, the correction will set in. Do note, that when it comes to this currency pair, we require patience and more importantly do not overtrade. Shorting in very small position sizes to end up a reasonable average. I am sure most of you are aware. Just for guidance sake, assuming shorting since 9.50 (its medium-term view) and low leveraging, at current 13.80 rate we will have reached 1.05x leverage now. So, we are very fine and we can manage it well and have a profit objective of 10-15% at the closing of the positions.
Back to the strategy, SELL 14.25 (unless you did 14.30-14.40 in the spike) and also reduce position at 12.50 and re-sell that above 13.50. Overall profit target 10.25>10.50 for now. Have a great day everyone.
