Get started

Usdtryshort

USDTRY Short After Surprising Rate Hike on Sept 24, 2020After a series of stealth measures by the central bank to contain the lira's weakness: such as ceasing to provide funding at its cheapest benchmark rate which began in August, Gov Uysal increased the benchmartk one-week repo rate to 10.25% from 8.25% on Sept 24, 2020. He assessed that such tightening steps should be reinforced with the rate hike to contain inflation expectation and risks to the inflation outlook. Back on August 10, 2020, Gov Uysel took a measure to raise the cost of money for its primary dealers (firms that trade directly with the Turkish central bank) which had already experienced a halve of their liquidity limits. The decision was made to increase the weighted average cost of funding. This type of stealth tightening was seen by the market as flexible and temporary, which is why we saw a sharp depreciation of the lira until now coupled with the recent strength this week of the USD as equities liquidity gets into it. The market needs to believe that the central bank will keep policy tightened for an extended period. With the base rate being increased now, this also means there was a huge waste of FX reserves as Turkey state-owned lenders sold dollars to support the lira. Why tightening might ease the inflation outlook and strengthen the lira? 1. The benchmark 1-week repo rate stands now at 10.25% which is still BELOW the bank's weighted average cost of funding which stands at 10.65% currently. Risks: A. We do not know the full extent of the tightening: If policymakers still refuse to provide funding to its commercial banks at the 1-week repo rate of now 10.25% and instead redirects them to borrow at their late liquidity window rate which is its highest rate at 13.25%. B. President Erdogan appeals for lower borrowing costs. In Turkey the president has the power to fire the head of the central bank so it is possible that the rate hike is done to increase bullish sentiment on the lira while still playing around its rate corridor which goes from 13.25% for the late liquidity rate, to 10.25% for the 1-week repo rate. Gov Uysal could be playing politics with the rate tightening and easing which would be a repetition of what has been happening ever since the beginning of August 2020. C. Geopolitical risk: EU Summit was posponed to 1-2 Oct, 2020. During this summit, EU leaders were going to discuss imposing potential sanctions on Turkey, but on Sept 24, Greece and Turkey agreed to diplomatic talks making the probability of sanctions very unlikely. Counter-argument for risks: A. Gov Uysal performed the rate hike from 8.25% to 10.25% as a measure to start giving back its commercial banks the option to borrow at their lowest benchmark rate. Banks had the only option of borrowing at the previous late liquidity window rate of 11.25% so the rate hike could be viewed as a way to encourage investors and banks to hold the nation's asset. B. Most economists and central bankers believe that lower rates cause inflation as capital outflows increase since investors are demanding higher returns for holding the lira as a risky asset. Higher rates compensates investors for the risk and would strengthen the lira easing borrowing cost pressures on the central bank's own obligations. This would avoid a potential balance of payments crisis. Technical analysis: After price broke from the trendline, once the rate hike decision was made, price dipped with more buyers showing up after bouncing on the 4HMA. This leads me to believe there is a consolidation to happen over the coming days and possibly weeks before we see price initiating a bearish trend. This could be the result of investors waiting to see that the Turkish central bank is serious about providing higher rates and as investors start getting attracted to the higher return on their money for holding the lira. For this the horizon on this trade is of around 3 weeks. Stop loss level has been placed at 7.71687 which is a 200 points risk, give or take since this pair counts points differently. TP1 is at 6.68000 TP2 is at 6.42169 Will continue to monitor future geopolitic and economic events as they develop.
Short
by Alecx95
USD/TRY in a Rising wedge.Hey, I am back with another Forex idea as I said, that I will deliver a one Forex Idea every working day. Let's get into chart. Basically USD/TRY has printed a rising wedge which is considered as bearish pattern and is expecting the price to see a spike down. RSI has also printed a bear flag, overall this seems like a good trade. Don't forget to follow me, to not miss out on a good trade opportunities😉 Each Like is very much appreciated! 🙌
Short
by TiborVrbovsky
1
Watchlist candidate for USDTRYHello world, here we have a candidate which I have flagged for my watchlist. This is not a trade I am taking, just an interesting chart! We have: - a key weekly level reached - quite some time without a proper retracement - and highly overvalued RSI - a bit of price action forming at this key level - shorter then average previous candles (only) indicating (!) momentum loss What I am waiting for? - more confirmation in form of price action at this key level - theoretically I would TEND to assume that price will see at least a 23% fib retracement Apparently I do not know enough about the macro-economic situation regarding turkey. If anyone knows and sees this, feel free to comment. All the best, c4ss10p314
Short
by c4ss10p314
2
#USDTRY tahmin edilmesi zor olasılıkDolar TL 6.5TL de direnc görüp tekrar 6TL'lere gevseyebilir. Sonrasında 7 TL görülebilir. Fakat yaklaşık 1 sene sonra öyle bir düşüş dalgası olabilir ki 3.5TL'den 7TL'lere cıktığı gibi düşüş rallisi yapabilir. Unutmayın bu sene öyle bir sene ki yıllardır beyinlere yerleşmiş her ne varsa yıkılma zamanı. Finansal piyasalarda sok üstüne sok görme zamanı gelmekte. Amerika tuvalet kağıdı üretir gibi dolar üretmekte. Eğer corona virus sebebi ile millete havadan para dağıtılmaz ise gelecekte bu hareketi görmemiz çok olasıdır. Bu seferde paraları ile TL'ye güvenmeyip dolar alanlar kaybedecek.
Short
by emrahmersinli
6
US Dollar Tether disbalance/BTC FACTORY SETTINGS MARKET RESETUSDT has enourmous value which means that the prices arent sustainable, because of upcoming Halving scheduled for May 12.th. I personally think that this #btc price range won't be sustainable even if wales and sharks are flashing market trading on high levels between themselves and creating prices which enables them to reset altcoins even if not making money on btc . Those alt prices we saw and all those enormous uptrend(s) will be corrected to previous prices and they will probably drop even more then previous values before lowest low we've seen so far which is 3156 on binance. Possible scenario is that wales n sharks are buyin' alts, artificialy inceasing prices and trading, making real money there, while trying to slow btc downtrend which is inevitable. I would not suggest buying anything else on these price levels but it will dump as prices drop . Stay in US dollars until we drop to previous low. Then goes rebound. Then goes lower low (3500, then 3200$). I don't provide disclaimer, since i'm not fake. Good luck and happy earnings.
POLONIEX:USDTUSDShort
by milanjelic
2
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.02.17On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into the month end. On the fundamental side, Turkey remains in rough shape, those bearish on Turkey should use this as an opportunity to add heavy bullish exposure with targets up towards the 7.80xx levels: In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the extensive breakout we traded previously has unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the core bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. We can use the long-term charts as our drivers to scale into swings more comfortably on the immediate term. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig