UAWAG/USD / Salaries in UkraineUAWAG/USD Analysis with Geopolitical Context:
The chart reflects the average wage in Ukraine denominated in USD, showing significant fluctuations over time. Key dates are marked on the chart, which align with potential changes in geopolitical scenarios and their impact on Ukraine's economy.
Key Dates and Potential Influences:
July 2027 (07/01/27) - Post-Conflict Economic Rebuilding:
Scenario: By mid-2027, if the previously discussed freeze or resolution in the conflict with Russia is maintained, Ukraine could enter a phase of economic rebuilding. International aid, investments in infrastructure, and efforts to stabilize the economy may start showing tangible results.
Impact on Salaries: With the economy stabilizing, there may be gradual improvement in wages, especially in USD terms. However, this growth may still be modest due to the lingering effects of the war and the ongoing need to rebuild various sectors.
June 2029 (06/01/29) - Economic Strengthening and Wage Growth:
Scenario: Assuming continued stability and successful economic policies, Ukraine could see more robust economic growth by 2029. This period might mark the beginning of a significant improvement in living standards, with the possibility of higher foreign investments and stronger currency reserves.
Impact on Salaries: Average wages in USD could see a notable increase during this period, driven by economic growth, a stronger Hryvnia, and improved employment opportunities. This would be a positive period for the Ukrainian workforce.
June 2033 (06/01/33) - Potential Economic Challenges or Recession:
Scenario: Around 2033, external factors such as global economic conditions, shifts in trade dynamics, or even internal political changes could introduce economic challenges for Ukraine. This might include a recession or a slowdown in economic growth.
Impact on Salaries: In such a scenario, wage growth could stall or even decline. Inflationary pressures, reduced foreign investments, or economic mismanagement might erode the gains made in the previous years, leading to lower average wages in USD terms.
January 2038 (01/10/38) - Long-Term Economic Outlook:
Scenario: By 2038, the economic landscape could stabilize after the challenges of the early 2030s. This period might see Ukraine either recover from or adapt to the economic shifts of the previous decade. The outcome will largely depend on global economic conditions and Ukraine's integration into international markets.
Impact on Salaries: Wages in USD might start to improve again, reflecting a more stable and potentially growing economy. However, the pace of this recovery would likely be slow, contingent on the broader global economy and Ukraine's ability to maintain political and economic stability.
Conclusion:
The UAWAG/USD chart highlights the potential for significant wage fluctuations in Ukraine over the next decade. Key events, such as the resolution of the conflict with Russia, economic rebuilding, and possible future economic challenges, will all play crucial roles in determining the average wage levels in USD.
While there is potential for wage growth, particularly in the late 2020s, there are also risks associated with global economic conditions and internal political stability that could hinder this growth. As a result, Ukrainian workers and policymakers should be prepared for both opportunities and challenges as the country navigates this complex economic landscape.
Ultimately, these projections underscore the importance of strategic economic planning and the need for Ukraine to build resilience against external shocks while fostering sustainable economic growth.
USDUAH
USDUAH Analysis USDUAH Analysis with Geopolitical Context:
This chart represents the USD to UAH (Ukrainian Hryvnia) exchange rate, showing a significant trend of USD strengthening against the UAH. The chart provides a clear visual on future potential movements, marked by key dates that align with potential geopolitical events.
Key Dates and Events:
September 2025 (09/01/25) - Conflict "Freeze" and Temporary Peace:
Scenario: As we discussed, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia could enter a phase of "freezing" around this time. This period might not bring complete peace but rather a significant reduction in active military engagements.
Impact on Currency: The temporary halt in hostilities could stabilize the UAH slightly, preventing further devaluation. However, the economic scars of the war might keep the exchange rate volatile.
May 2029 (05/10/29) - Resumption of Conflict or New Escalations:
Scenario: After a few years of relative calm, a renewed phase of conflict or escalation between Ukraine and Russia could begin. This may be driven by unresolved territorial disputes or political changes in either country or their allies.
Impact on Currency: This would likely lead to another sharp depreciation of the UAH, as markets react to the increased uncertainty and economic strain of renewed military action.
May 2032 (05/03/32) - Potential Full-Scale Conflict:
Scenario: The situation could deteriorate into a more severe conflict or widespread regional instability. This period might mark the beginning of a more protracted and intense phase of war.
Impact on Currency: A full-scale conflict would severely weaken the UAH, potentially pushing it to historical lows. The Ukrainian economy would face enormous pressure, leading to further devaluation.
April 2037 (04/10/37) - Stabilization and Possible Recovery:
Scenario: By this time, the conflict might have resolved, or at least the region could have entered a period of prolonged stability. This could be due to international interventions, peace treaties, or significant changes in political leadership.
Impact on Currency: The UAH might begin a slow recovery if stability is restored and economic rebuilding starts. However, this recovery would be gradual and dependent on the extent of damage done to the Ukrainian economy.
Conclusion:
UAH will likely experience significant volatility over the next decade, heavily influenced by the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe. Each of the marked dates corresponds to potential shifts in the conflict with Russia, with major implications for the UAH. Investors and policymakers should closely monitor these dates and prepare for various scenarios, ranging from temporary stability to severe economic downturns.
These forecasts underscore the importance of strategic planning in uncertain times. The potential "freeze" in conflict might offer temporary relief, but the possibility of renewed or intensified conflict in later years looms large, making the future of the UAH highly uncertain.
Interesting graph of USD/UAHOf course, I have not traded the currency market much and I have no experience as such, but I can predict something purely based on the structures and how it happened, my analysis cannot be taken into account!
1) I can see a 5 wave structure and now the last wave of growth
2) There is so much negativity that the chart begins to slow down, a sign of trend weakness
3) As strange as this US election is, it looks like something is about to happen
In my opinion, there are 2 scenarios. First, we really form the 5th final wave and go through a correction to 20-25, which will give a positive result for 4-10 years, after which the upward movement will begin again. Second, the negative will become more and more and the rate will start to break above 50-54, which in my opinion is very critical and will stretch the uncertainty for years. In my opinion, the probability is as follows, the first - 70-75%, the second - 30-25%
USDUAH Elliott Waves AnalysisHello friends.
Everything on the chart.
Im waiting for 45-47 zone, it's will be top of the cycle, then trend reversal, minimal target will be 28.
Good luck everyone!
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It's not financial advice.
Dont Forget, always make your own research before to trade my ideas!
Open to any questions and suggestions
USDUAH Ukrainian Hryvnia strengthening against the dollarWorldwide currencies are strengthening against the dollar as the dollar slumps. But briefly USDUAH will rise as dollar strengthen. Also there is the cyclical strengthening of the Hryvnia during spring and summer due to possible increase in export and migrant workers sending money back to the country.
Targets are 26 and 25 USDUAH at the end of summer and end of year respectively.
USDUAH New trading range and trend correction !As I have posted last week, Turkish Lira has
started its correction against USD. But not
7.8000 is my support level, which will be
I have announced T1 as the most important
support level for UAH against USD and this
week prices has touched T1 trendline, we
need to realize that this is long term trendline
and little crossing of this trendline can not give
as strong information about trend correction,
but anyway UAH is stable for this and next several
weeks. I expect 27.900-28.200 trading range.
Terms and short forms!
T - Trendlines (T1,T2... etc.)
S - Supprt levels (S1,S2... etc.)
R - Resistance levels (R1,R2... etc.)
TP - Take Profit
SL - Stop Loss
F - Fibo Levels (F23,F61... etc.)
Check out my next stream "What is divergence, why it is important for trading?"
www.tradingview.com
USDTUAH waiting for longHi, everyone! Today we’ll take a look at USDTUAH!
Recently, currency pairs have been generous on the flag patterns. This time, on an upward trend, a falling channel has been given to us by couple USDTUAH. The economic crisis, the coronavirus, the devaluation of the hryvnias, and the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the anti-corruption powers of the National agency, though not directly affecting the hryvna’s exchange rate, all combine to confirm the correct flag pattern. This is my personal opinion, not a call to action!
Thank you for your attention! If you like my analysis, put likes and follow me. May the profit be with you!
USDUAH long for next several months UAH has just reached 27.798 resistance level,
this price was strongest during last 6 months,
reaching of this level means that UAH will hold
another range above 28.000. Price can reach
30.000 until new years eve, if central bank will
not take actions, or if country will not close
pandemic restrictions
USDUAH unreliable currency to save moneyBased on this, you should have done everything possible for the Ukrainian hryvnia.
Before the New Year, the hryvnia may collapse: the dollar can jump up to 30 UAH / dollar.
In the budget for 2020, the price for one dollar (27 UAH) is approximate.
Ukraine is an industrial-agrarian country, so a seasonal increase in demand occurs in the summer.
Economic activities of companies. Hryvnia deficit is felt in all customers, therefore exporters are actively selling currency, while importers do not buy it in significant quantities. At a time when the supply of currency briefly exceeded demand, the NBU bought out the excess dollar. For Wednesday-Thursday, the regulator lowered its price tags from 26.60 to 26.58 hryvnia. You can buy for a week only $ 40 million;
The decrease in the discount rate by the National Bank from 8% per annum to 6% affects the resource interbank and the government bonds market. This step of the regulator will adjust the behavior of all the major players in the Ukrainian foreign exchange market - both local customers and banks;
On the interbank. Due to the deficit of the hryvnia, you have the opportunity to monitor the activation of currency sellers.
USDUAH The stabilization period!Ukraine govenment had made quick desicion for coronavisurs, aos the number of infected people is preaty law, also Central bank has immadiate respons to changin environment in financial markets. In my opinion UAH will stabilize between 27.79-26.50 during next several months.
usduah (medium-term movement)Everything on the chart.
Open pos: market
Stop: 27.35
Take profit: area 25.8-26.2
Risk: 1 to 3
Hello everyone, almost year ago i have lost my deposit(almost 8btc and i'm still broke w/o deposit and job,I can’t do my favorite thing.) and now i'm trying to get back to the market. If i help you to earn some money i will RLY VERYVERY THANKFULL for your donate. Also open to your suggestions.
USDUAH ScenarioAll on the chart.
If I right and we are now moving in a correctional wave (4) we can go down to 26, I don’t think that it will be lower. Possible reversal levels on the chart (fibonacci). After correction wave (4) will finished. Target zone near 28.8-30. If we break level 27.3 you could open long position.
Hello everyone, almost year ago i have lost my deposit(almost 8btc and i'm still broke w/o deposit and job,I can’t do my favorite thing.) and now i'm trying to get back to the market. If i help you to earn some money i will RLY VERYVERY THANKFULL for your donate. Also open to your suggestions.
USDUAH Ukranian Hryvnia to 26.7Hryvnia is forming an inverse head and shoulders and is heading to the neckline at 25, where there is a lot of resistance. But a break above 25 will send the price to the inverse H&S target at 26.7. This will be around October which will be reasonable because the Hryvnia historically weakens in winter.
Price is above the cloud for the first time since 2018, which is a significant change in trend.
USDUAH - Inflation in UkraineUSDUAH -either the economy improves in Ukraine and the dollar falls
or the second option from this level is a new growth cycle;
In Ukraine, changes in monetary circulation, which will take place in the near future.
There will be a new banknote 1000UAH
1,2,5 kopecks will be gone from use already tomorrow