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USDUAH

USDUAH | Still on WatchlistThe hryvnia (UAH) continues to trade sideways while in consolidation in the "no trade zone." Recently, the currency strengthened against the dollar (USD) and initially it looked like an opportunity to go long on the USD. However, the weekly EMA50 (which historically has provided support for the USD) turned into resistance, broke the 3 year trendline, and now we are heading toward the 61.8 Fibo. Above the 61.8 Fibo the USD is still bullish. Below the 61.8 Fibo we have a bit more neutrality with support close at the weekly EMA200 (good place to hedge UAH and/or go long USD).
Long
by Trader6127
1
USDUAH | Added to WatchlistUkraine's Hryvnia looks poised for a reversal to the downside on the weekly and lower timeframes against the dollar. There could be a 5-8% trade in here. 1) RSI is currently indicating a trend change. 2) Price action is currently indicating a trend change 3) Volume profile is quite high which could indicate traders are soaking up USD by trading in their UAH as the latter appreciated by nearly 7% in the last 12 months. PS. Ukraine had an election in April that resulted in regime change (old banking elites are recapturing the government). The country has the highest NPL in the world and a very precarious situation is stirring in the Ukrainian banking system involving the largest bank by assets, Privatbank which was nationalized in 2017. This may result in NPL issues resurfacing with changes in the banking system, the restitution of Privatbank to former owners, or just some kind of accounting rule or bank reserve requirement changing the outlook for the Hryvnia. Sovereign credit issues may also pop up involving the IMF, so this pair could get very interesting to trade.
Long
by Trader6127
6