USDWTI Short at 47Technically: Fibonacci retracement level supported by MA which plays role of resistance, overbought RSI not likely to sustain the upward movement, same for MACD and Stoch indicators
Fundamentally: Rising OPEC output
USDWTI
Is it time to buy OIL on long term?!Here is my analyse about OIL.
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LFX
Long USDWTIwww.tradingview.com
Many oil companies exhibiting a bullish setup. Oil as well. An idea that looks back into previous cycles.
A 3 year view of Crude OilMonthly
Points of interest 'A' and 'B'. A similar pattern in price, TRIX, and Stoch with the key difference in the DMI. With 'A', the DMI is bullish which I believe limited the downward movement of price and kept the TRIX above 0 which formed the based for the ensuing bull run. With 'B', the DMI is bearish and the ADX, in the past 2 months, has begun to trend up (indicating a strengthening in the down trend). In the time frame since 1990, 39.91 and 27.29'ish has provided good support. The question is, will price challenge these two lines again and if so, when. I believe both will be challenged during the course of the next 3 years but it will be a very volatile time for price. I've added an Elliott Wave interpretation to the chart. I believe that we've just finished wave (B) of a 5 wave descending triangle that makes up wave 'V' of (C that will terminate the correction that began in March 2009.
Weekly
Current support lines include 44.15/41.37/36.62 with 1999 -> 2003 generated lines at 28.50 thru 24.90.
Indicators are appearing to turn down with bearish follow-thru but this week will be key if price is to drive lower toward monthly scenario above
Daily
Previous support of 45.91 is now acting as resistance. A hold of price here (on close) and price should continue down.
Next support lines are 44.93 and 43.60
As with weekly, the indicators are bearish which imply more downside to price this week.
Buying GBP StrengthGBP posted strong Retail Data this morning 2.3% compared to an expected 1.2%. This led to a breakout for GBP. It has since retraced to the 50% level for CAD. The target is the previous high approximately 80pips. And the Stop Loss is set just below a previous high and support level: approximately 50pips.
With CAD it is important to keep an eye on Oil. So if USDWTI or USDBRO starts to hit new highs, that may be a sign to exit the trade
USDWTIKeep in mind most of my trades are made from a minimum TF of Daily. I'm expecting price to rise and cap out at around $53. If price continues any higher than that not only will I be surprised but I will look to hold until the 2016 highs of $52. If it breaks higher than that then you know the deal, ride the trend.
$CL_F ($USDWTI) Multiple technical indicators say buy oil here after OPEC reaffirm cuts. 4.4:1 trade shown.
Opportunity to Short CD leg of Potential Bullish Shark Pattern It is risky but it is a very nice R:R. The target zone is a confluence of a bullish shark completion, an AB=CD pattern completion, the 50% retracement of the larger bullish move, as well as an area with some previous structure as a cherry on top. I will definitely be interested in longing from this area should the opportunity present itself.
(Note: the shark pattern may extend all the way to the 2.24 so it is important to watch price action in the rectangle to determine when to switch sides)
Crude Oil Just Completed a Bearish Gartley PatternNot a great risk:reward and current price action has been bullish but it seems price is facing selling pressure here. Good luck!
sell oil USDWTIfound these two patterns quite similar. Back in in 2014 before the sharp decline, there was oil overproduction reported.
Recently, Energy Information Administration reported increased oil production in November 2016. Coupled with the prospect of rising interest rates in US and consequently stronger dollar, this might be a short opportunity, despite the fact that OPEC and some non-OPEC producers "reached an agreement" to decrease oil production. Kind of doubtful the agreement will have any lasting effects, just a desperate move by oil dependent countries.
$CL_F (USDWTI) suggests one more pullbackTriangle suggests one more pullback, and possibly even to range low of 42.80. But it looks like it will break 52 next year.
$CL_F ($USDWTI) should reverse at 45.67When I drew the tramlines and fib, they matched. I then noticed the gap between the 61.8% and 50% fibs. If you add in support and assume OPEC will agree cuts next week, then you have five pieces of evidence which point to the same thing.
Good Times Ahead for OILOPEC proved it is not going to let oil prices plummet again, 618 retracement completed!
RSI together with MACD and Structure analysis suggests a similar technical story. Fibonacci levels and Previous Strucutre will not let OIL go below 46.
New highest for the year in December? Why not!?
$USWTI $CL_F Symmetry FractalDon't use these often, but this is the price/action of oil on the way down, mirrored
