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Will the US Dollar Index Collapse Below 100? Or Back To 105?The big day has arrived: the first Fed rate cut. The burning question is, will it be 0.25% or 0.5%? In recent days, the markets have been leaning toward a 0.50% cut. Could this be the catalyst for a breakdown below the critical 100 level in the USDX? Let’s break down the charts and find out. Looking at the weekly charts, the 100 level has been a solid support zone for several years, briefly dipping below last year in what turned out to be a false breakout within the 100 - 107 range. I’ve highlighted some key levels on the charts: last year’s low at 99.47, and just below that, the 0.99 mark, which is a key Monthly 0.618% fib level and a strong former resistance turned support (see image below). Below this level is a significant BUY zone, where the massive 2022 rally began, breaking through 100 and eventually driving the price up to nearly 115. Considering these key areas, I do suspect we may see a breakdown through the 100 level, but it will likely be met with strong buying pressure at the areas mentioned. This is why, for now, I’m leaning toward the upside for the US dollar. Zooming into the daily charts, an M pattern is forming at this key support, suggesting that price is gearing up to break through the 100 level. Additionally, there’s a divergence emerging on the MACD, indicating that although a break below 100 might occur, it could be short-lived. This is why we should be looking for buy setups as the price dips under this level. Zooming in further to the 6-hour charts, we can see the divergence even more clearly, with the MACD on the verge of a crossover to the upside. With all of this in mind, a whipsaw move could be on the cards today after the rate decision. I’ll be turning on my TRFX indicator and watching for buy setups on dips under 100 and toward 0.99. Although the USDX may weaken in the longer term, I fully expect a strong reaction at the levels mentioned, with the price likely to run back up toward the 103-104 area before selling off again. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by TheFxAce
9
The 4HR USDX W-Bottom Rocketing USD - Today! I know it reads like a headline in a newspaper trying to sell the Sunday paper, but that is really not me. But I am also not the kind of person who finds keeping a good secret - a secret. We are all here on Tradingview to watch each other's backs in a risk management and learning experience kind of way, in relation to being a consistent and profitable trader. A couple of things to be aware of today in your Friday-trading. I am quite convinced that the USDX will be propelled upwards & finally through 101.85 causing a sustained breakout in the dollar over the next several days to a week. I see this occurring right before, at the open or within in an hour or 2 of the NY market session today. What reason(s) do I have to be propagating this type of fear and panic into Traders today. I will tell you right below! The 4HR W/Bottom is now properly formed. Well the finishing touches are being made to the right-side of the W as I write, which will give the dollar plenty of relative strength. Helping that cause? Well of course that would be the momentum -oscillators RSI & Stochastic's on the higher timeframes. I watch these a lot in my own trading because they warn me about supply/demand levels especially when commodities, currency's, stocks, metals etc, enter their overbought and oversold zones - for example the USD has been beaten down the past month or so and it's now oversold, but when something is oversold, provided that it's a commodity, currency or thing that people want and demand again, it's oversold state becomes one with increasing buyer demand at cheaper prices - then boom - breakout. I will be watching closely the Vix Index as well. I see it possibly breaking higher than 15% today and as for Gold - well after yesterday's shot-in-the-arm, I for one will be Shorting it back to 2430 to 2450 levels. Finally, take a look at the following current 4HR USDX chart. What I see occurring with the Oscillators' is that the RSI / Stochastic's on the 1HR, 2HR, 4HR Daily & Weekly Charts, will cross-up out of their oversold condition's concurrently and simultaneously, igniting the USDX off it's W-Bottom and smashing through 101.85 without so much as the blink of an eye. Maybe I am a looney you are thinking? Yes, but a looney who capitalises ahead of time.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
2
USDX Breaks Out: Gold Struggles For Direction In the Monday 9 Sept. Oceania & Asia session both Gold & Silver were slow to make traction. Prior to London session today, the USDX edged closer to 101.50 & made it to this level again, before retracing and breaking out through this level at time of writing. USDX currently 101.60. Today, I saw some divergence happening between Gold and the USDX, as it rallied Gold did not sell off with the vengeance its normally known for.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
6
USDX's Possible Lid On The Gold Price: See Analysis & Chart During the Thursday 29 August 2024, NY session of Gold & Precious metals trading, I noticed some good momentum in Long-positions, so priced looked to be headed up to test 2531.65 which is firm resistance (and below from 2528.50 & even beneath there), where on Wednesday during the Asian session a lacklustre performance in price-momentum of Gold relative to Silver saw it sell off strongly all the way back to 2493.50. Good-on-you if you got in at that price-point because the Gold-bulls drive price back up so quickly. I have digressed a bit, this week we have seen the start of a recovery in the US Dollar and the index that tracks it, the USDX tested the 101.50 level during yesterday before moving back down. I mentioned during the last NY session that I was cashing in my long-positions in Gold and looking at a possible short. Well full disclosure I am still Short-gold today Friday in the Asia session. Mind you I had to get Short in & out 2 times because price rallied against me, that is trading. I even forgot to book my profits during yesterday when price got to 2528.65. Why? I honestly thought the Gold price with its momentum would take 2531.65. There's my mistake. Never anticipate the market. If you have conviction on a firmly held idea with a variety of technical analysis confluence & fundamentals to go with it, then that is different, but saying to myself 'we are going to get over hard resistance zones (2528.50-2531.65) and 'I'm gonna ride this baby all the way to a new high today', that is wishful thinking. What I have learnt about trading Gold & Precious metals is to book your profits. Then you can let price retrace and go again in the same previous direction that booked you all that profit. Anyway, take a look at my chart, please and keep an eye on a break of the 101.50 area where the USDX could engage in a more firmly held rally as we head towards the 'interest rate decision' in the USA in a few weeks time. I think that the Gold-price is extra sensitive to the Dollar at this point in time and I think the rally in the USDX (see an article I wrote last weekend below - click on the chart) that we are going to see may keep a cap or a lid on the Gold price at least until it explodes upwards on an interest rate reduction. This is my analysis only, I don't get cues from anyone else. * Trading is risky. Please don't rely solely on my investment advice & trade setups. Regards, Chris easy_explosive_trades
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
USDX Analysis going into next week's Trading. See Weekly-Chart! Buy AAAPL, Buy Googl, Buy QCOM, Buy McDonalds Fast Food. I honestly have not checked their charts. But they are some of the stocks that must be starting to turnaround in their share prices following the recent sell-off, these companies I would say with their global franchises & operations would be benefiting from a weakening US-Dollar. You can see in the Weekly chart where USDX is coming down into an area of Support on the Weekly chart & my feeling is that it will start to turnaround this coming week as its very oversold. But of-course if I may hedge my bets a bit, the path of least-resistance is down as it's well under important moving averages, but a reversal is imminent is my feeling. * Trading/Investing in precious metals, currency's, commodities & stocks is risky. Please don't rely solely on my financial advice.
EIGHTCAP:USDXLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
2
Why I am getting very Cautious trading Long - Gold / Precious M USDX has really fallen off a cliff this week & this lowering of the USD has been supportive of Gold & all at a time when Gold has been bided up a bit too much & making the Gold price overbought on the Stochastic's higher-time-frames. With USDX and the Gold-price having an inverse relationship, my chart shows just how much the USD has been oversold this week on the important 4HR, Daily & Weekly Stochastics. A strong cross-up on the 20 level could signal a rally in USDX soon, I tip it will rally next week if not before finding strength during late Thursday and Friday trading. There is a tonne of economic news coming out today Thursday morning, will it be a mixed bag and what impact will have on the Gold price and USDX... We will know later.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook – Managing political risk• Month and quarter-end flows to impact price action • The US Presidential elections kick up a gear • Managing risk around the French 1st round vote • US Core PCE is the marquee data point of the week • Australia's monthly CPI a potential kicker for the AUD • Central bank meetings due this week • Long MXN back in vogue For the week ahead there is a fair bit for traders to prepare for and to manage, with event risk spanning economic data, politics, and central bank meetings. We also gear up for month- and quarter-end, so the usual opaque portfolio rebalancing flows impacting price action, as well as the aftermath of a monster options expiry (OPEX) and ETF rebalance on Friday. I’ve never personally found any edge aligning trades to what I’m hearing for the needs of portfolio rebalancing flows. However, as the big portfolios rebalance (e.g. from pension funds) the flows can impact equity, FX and fixed income and produce moves that can’t readily be explained by the data and news flow – any factor that alters our trading environment needs to be considered. The US election kicks into gear On the political front, the US Presidential election kicks into gear with the first debate held between Biden and Trump (21:00 EST / 02:00 BST / 11:00 AEST) likely getting sizeable attention. Prediction markets currently have Trump ahead by 5ppt, which is partly a function of Trump’s superior polling in the six key battleground/swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia). While the debate may not stoke market volatility, it will be symbolic given it’s the earliest live debate since 1960, and Biden will be out to prove a point to the American voters. As the gloves come off it could get ugly on the podium, and we watch to see if the debate affects polling. Managing exposures into the French first-round vote For those trading the EUR, FRA40, and European equities more broadly, the first round of voting in the French election plays out on Sunday. This will have many assessing the risk of holding exposures into the weekend vote, with the very real prospect of gapping on the Monday open. We can take a stab at the outcome and base-case scenario the market is currently pricing based on the French-German 10y yield spread and current pricing in EU assets, and from that loosely devise a playbook for a potential market reaction upon learning who will go through to the second-round vote scheduled for 7 July. Given recent polling, I’d argue the broad consensus is currently seeing two outcomes – either Le Pen’s RN party gaining a working majority and cohabiting with Macron as President or a hung parliament with the RN party the largest contribution. I’m not sure we get a massive market response if this remains the base case after the first vote. The big reaction comes with a better outcome for the left-wing NFP coalition, where they seem to have momentum with recent polls have shown greater support for the coalition - the greater sway the left has on fiscal policy the more negative the reaction in the EUR, FRA40 and broad EU assets. EURUSD holds below 1.0700 but is finding some support below the figure. Should the France-German 10yr yield spread widen past 85 to 90bp this week (its currently at 80bp) then EURUSD could be headed towards the 16 April lows of 1.0601, with EURCHF rolling over and eyeing a move back down to 0.9500. ECB 1- & 3-year CPI expectations (due on Friday) could promote some EUR volatility, but it will be trumped by market participants positioning ahead of Sunday's vote. US core PCE inflation a risk event On the US data side, US core PCE inflation is on Friday and is the marquee event risk, with expectations the Fed’s inflation gauge prints +0.1% m/m, and +2.6% y/y. The last two US PCE inflation prints have come in above expectations, but historically the outcome of the data falls in line with consensus. That said, if we do get an upside surprise and a year-on-year pace at or above 2.8%, this outcome would likely impact be taken badly by equity markets and result in solid USD buying. We get relief in risky assets, USD selling, should we see the month-on-month pace come in at 0.00% m/m and certainly if we see a decline. We also get US consumer confidence where the consensus sees a lower read at 100 (vs 102 in the prior read), a Q1 GDP revision, personal income, and spending. We also get 9 Fed speakers through the week, although I don’t see these being too much of a risk, and we need to hear speeches post-PCE inflation data. USDJPY and USDCNH both get focus, where the upside moves in USDCNH seem to be spilling over into strength in other USD pairs – the PBoC should look to curb yuan weakness this week, but higher levels in the USDCNH cross-rate should see lend upside support for the USD. On the data side, we see Japan's Tokyo CPI (due Friday) and China PMIs (on Sunday), where the latter offers some degree of gapping risk in Chinese markets and the China proxies (AUD, NZD, CLP) on Monday. The client’s focus is on a potential break of ¥160 (in USDJPY) and whether we start to hear more from the MoF on JPY intervention – Japan rates now only price 4bp of hikes for the July BoJ meeting, and the market is happy to hold JPY shorts despite the likelihood the BoJ drastically reduce the pace of JGB buying. The rate of change and slope of the trend in USDJPY is the bigger issue though. Aussie CPI in play AUD and AUS200 traders will be watching the May monthly CPI read, with the consensus eyeing a lift in headline CPI to 3.8% (from 3.6%). The notable focus will be on services inflation, which keeps the threat of an August hike on the table, so this monthly print will set expectations for the all-important Aus Q2 CPI (due 31 July), which could go some way in influencing if the RBA do consider a hike in August. We also hear from RBA members Kent (Wed 09:35 AEST) and Hauser (Thursday 20:00 AEST). Prefer AUD upside vs currencies where the central bank is cutting or holds an easing bias (EUR, GBP & CHF). I also like AUDNZD from a central bank divergence play and would be adding to longs on a daily close above the 50-day MA (1.0883). On the central bank front, we see meetings in Sweden (expected to leave rates at 3.75%), Mexico (unchanged at 11%), Turkey (unchanged at 50%) and Columbia (50bp cut to 11.25%). The MXN is certainly looking perky, with a blend of short covering and aggressive longs emerging late last week – USDMXN eyes support at 18.0514 and should test this soon. Driving the MXN we’ve seen several more market-friendly appointments in the AMLO cabinet, but we’re also seeing carry trades working well as a strategy, and this week should refocus the market on MXNs compelling fundamental characteristics, with high real policy rates and improved forward rates offering excellent carry. Long MXNJPY is in beast mode at this point but comes with intervention risk. With the moves seen in US equity on Friday, we start the week with the ASX200, HK50, and NKY225 all looking like they open on the back foot, with our opening call 0.2% lower a piece. I remain biased to trade a range in the ASX200 (7850 to 7650) and NKY225 of 39,340 to 37,860, with a small bias that we see lower levels of these ranges tested. Good luck to all.
by Pepperstone
DXY The Fake Dance- One of the most important barometers for global currencies and markets in the world. - Most of the time DXY is a well used machine to supress markets (forex, stocks, cryptos, etc..) - When they don't start the printing machine, DXY keeps is strength. - When they start to print DXY starts to dip and markets boom up. - it's really basic and based on "BRRR Machine". - i had a hard time to decrypt this fake peace of resilience. - actually there's none visible divergences on the 1M or 3M Timeframes. - So i decided to push my analysis to 6M Timeframe and noticed few things : - You can notice that from 2008 ( Post crises ), DXY was in a perma bullish trend. - So now check MACD and will notice this fake move on January 2021 ( in graph the red ? ) - MACD was about to cross down, columns smaller and smaller, then a Pump from nowhere lol. - i rarely saw that in my trading life on a 6M Timeframe. - So to understand more this trend, i used ADX (Average Directional Index) - ADX is used to determine when the price is trending strongly. - In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator. - So if you look well ADX columns, you will notice that a strong divergence is on the way. - First check the Yellow Doted Line in July 2022 when DXY reached 115ish and look the size of the green columns. - Now check today (red doted Line), and look again the ADX green columns is higher, but DXY diped to 105ish. - So like always, i can be wrong, but i bet on a fast DXY dip soon or later. - it's possible to fake pumps, but it's harder to fake traders. Happy Tr4Ding !
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by thecryer
5
Elliott Wave Analysis Expects GBPUSD to Pullback in Wave 2Short Term Elliott Wave in GBPUSD suggests rally from 4.22.2024 low unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 4.22.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 1.2635 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 1.2445. The pair extends higher again in wave ((iii)) with internal subdivision as an impulse in lesser degree. The 1-hour chart below shows the subdivision of wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 1.2541 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 1.2502. GBPUSD then extended higher in wave (iii) towards 1.2726 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 1.2685. Final leg wave (v) ended at 1.2761 which completed wave ((iii)). The pair then pullback in wave ((iv)) towards 1.2675 and extended higher in wave ((v)) to end at 1.2801 high completing wave 1 in higher degree. Near term, as far as pivot at 1.2801 high stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7 or 11 swing pullbacks to end wave 2 correction before further upside.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
BTC will see 100$#BTC has started an uptrend since 16oct2023 (30 weeks ago) and then reached an all-time high in 2024, as values exceeded over 73,000 USD in March 2024 . when Israel bombed Iran's consulate , tensions escalated and risky assets like BTC dropped , on the other hand safe assets like gold rose . after that , BTC retraced and found support the 38.2 Fibo level ( while tensions eased ) and now on weeky timeframe we see a pin bar and a strong bullish candle which is a sign that BTC continues uptrend ; but we should wait until Monday and see if last weekly candle would remain strong or not . if so , we would take profit at 161.8% (Fibo ext) level and 102.300$ or you can exit safely and earlier on 100$ .
Long
by habib75rajabi