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EURO bulls might take a little break and then go up towards 500!Euro bulls are having trouble to stay above 250 and I don't expect them to break up towards 300 early next week either, even though they could always surprise me. I expect them to reach 500, but I think its safer to wait for a re-test of parity first or for a clean break above 250, so they would actually manage to stay above. So for me the week will start in waiting mode. If we start with a downmove...I will wait for when it stops, if at the 100 level again or if it breaks below, towards parity.
Long
by from1tomillion
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXY Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% DXY, 25% Cash. *Demand for USD continues as global recessionary fears amplify and tighter monetary policy pushes investors to short term Treasuries (Yield Curve inversion). The Euro is maintaining parity with the USD for the third consecutive day as Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi submitted an offer to resign today . Interestingly, as DXY continues pushing higher to reach levels last seen in 2002 (taking liquidity from Cryptos, Equities and Commodities), markets are currently reacting favorably to Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks today about how the markets are "getting a bit ahead of themselves" regarding inflation and that the job market is healthy enough to continue economic expansion. Waller also mentioned that though 75bps is all but guaranteed, he is waiting on June retail sales data ( scheduled for release tomorrow 07/14/2022 at 830am EST ) and housing starts/building permit data ( scheduled for release 07/19/22 at 830am EST ) to determine if demand is still so high that it warrants a full 100bps or more rate hike on 07/27/22. DXY has only traded above $108 in three other periods: 1967-1973 (two recessions 69-70 and 73-75, Nixon "nixed" the Bretton Woods Agreement and Gold Standard in attempt to stimulate the economy and ring in inflation, the third and fourth Arab/Israeli wars, 1973 oil crisis and stock market crash); 1981-1986 (one recession 81-82 after short rate-hike induced recession in 1980, Cold War fears pushed investors to DXY as Russia tested nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan, Iranian Revolution prompted 1979 energy crisis, Fed tightened monetary policy to bring down inflation, stock market only crashed 81-82 and rallied from 83-87); and the only period where CPI was relatively low (below 3.67%) and DXY was above 108 was 2000-2002 (short recession in 2001, Y2K, Dot-Com bubble popped, 9/11). That said, history shows that financial markets mostly tumble and the economy enters a recession as DXY rallies above 108; using this pattern one can surmise that if DXY continues to rip higher, markets may go lower.* Price is currently trending up at $108.63 as it technically tests $108 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $106.20, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 76 after bouncing at 73, the next resistance is at 82. Stochastic is currently in the process of crossing over bearish as it trends sideways at 97 in the 'bullish autobahn zone'. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 1.25 as it tests 1.24 resistance with no signs of peak formation; the next support is at 0.64 and resistance at 1.92. ADX is currently trending up at 42 with no signs of peak formation as Price continues to push higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $108 then the next likely target is a retest of $115 resistance for the first time since February 2002. However, if Price is rejected here at $108 and breaks down, the next likely target is a retest of the 50 MA at around $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $108.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
Head and Shoulders USD Index Daily I have been looking at this for a while due to the fact that i trade my local currency quite often against the USD. During this analysis i have realised a head and shoulders pattern formation. Is this due to the rising Gas and Oil price? Oh well, if the precious Metals recover a bit, i think the dollar might give us a break and fall into the head and shoulders pattern. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Elektro Analysis
TVC:DXY
by Elektro-Analysis
The gold bears prosecute their case.Well the new channel points back down to test the old uptrend. Long-term commodity channel that was from 2012 shows the Covid/Putin excursions that were responsible for excessive QE and government expenditures for war on whatever. WAR is such an overused concept. Anyway the bear channel, should it hold, needs to first get 1724 out of the way. 1650 would complete the case. This is largely a USDX issue. Other currency pairs are not bearish yet. The combination of maximizing currency strength with the backdrop of prior overprinting (MMT) will be resolved here. Guns and butter are currency strength vs tax receipts. The major trend is up but the geopolitics of the moment and obvious currency abuse/debasement are at issue. My thought would be an outcome to the downside at the intersection 1650 if the shorts have the stomach for it and if the EURO, Yen, Pound stay soft to absorb inflation for the US. This monetary policy will grind equities further which may attract buyers. Failing that, we all get some cheap gold in the 1500s. 1450 is possible, but not likely unless the currency war gets out of hand. That would crush stocks especially resource stocks. See the two gold charts done in the past below.
TVC:GOLD
by Ruthenium
USD Index versus Gold and Silver in EUR 2008-2011Most of the times, when USDX goes up, Gold and Silver go down. However, there are time periods in which USDX goes down along with gold and silver. Or times when USDX goes down and gold and silver go down. Such bad market times for gold and silver happen, however these tend to be somewhat short-lived. For longer periods of time, gold and silver tend to go up strongly especially when USDX goes down. It feels like we are in July-October 2008 all over again as USDX is up while gold and silver down. A year-long upward trend may be in the making shortly thus representing buying times now. When this happens, gold starts to move up first with silver lagging behind to find a bottom while USDX consolidates at high level to eventually drop
TVC:DXY
by RockstoneResearch
USDX BULLISH PATTERNUSD remains one of the stronger currencies in this period of uncertainty in the FX markets. The US Dollar Index, that had reached a two-decades high earlier this month, has broken the resistance of its Falling Wedge pattern on the 4H graph and it is returning to its upper trend. If this trend continues, the Dollar Index might try to test again the level of 105. Otherwise it might return within the Falling Wedge pattern and test the support at 103.40 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by legacyFXofficial
USDX Daily TA Cautiously BullishUSDX Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are down, cryptos are down, commodities are down (yes Gold included), real estate/housing market down, inflation up and the US dollar (as well as Russian ruble)... up. The Fed is expected to announce anywhere from a 50bp-100bp rate hike this Wednesday if they want to be in line with their promise to go "beyond neutral" to ring in still growing inflation; 50bp would likely assuage markets in the short term and stall the dollar, whereas 75bp+ would likely send markets lower and keep pushing up the dollar.* Recommended ratio: 90% USDX, 10% cash. Price is currently in Discovery as it is currently printing a new ATH at $105.05 amidst a big push back into treasuries (10y/30y). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close in the green in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $101.36, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently breaking above 63.78 and is trending up at 68.60 as it fast approaches overbought territory. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently on the verge of testing max top (where it can potentially coast in the bullish "autobahn zone" for a while). MACD remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 0.39, the next resistance is at 0.46; if it blows past 0.46, it will likely test the uptrend line from August 2020 at around 0.80 resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 23 as Price continues to rise, this is mildly bullish and becomes very bullish if it can maintain this same correlation above 25. If Price is able to continue in its Discovery, the next psychological level to watch for is $110. However, if Price retreats from here then it will likely test $103.77 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $103.77.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by dailytaguy