USD Index eyes further 2% drop, seasonal trends bearish! 📉Hello traders,
The US dollar has been in a strong downtrend in the recent months as risk sentiment improved significantly. Markets are always looking 6 to 18 months in the future, and positive vaccine news promises global economic recovery in the next year.
Moreover, US President-elect Biden's plans to increase fiscal spending puts additional selling pressure in the US dollar, and rising stock valuations attract funds to the market and increase USD supply.
The latest CFTC report showed that the aggregate USD short position increased to USD 27.1 billion . The current positioning has some room to go until it reaches a 52-week extreme positioning. Because, if everyone is already short, who will be selling?
Seasonality trends based on the last 33 years show that the US dollar tends to have a bearish bias into the year end, starting from mid-November.
Given that the end-of-year rally in stocks will likely put further selling pressure on the greenback, we could soon see the 88.xx area and even a break below.
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Usdx
90.75 Key Level to Watch on DXYPrice stalled as we approach a 2018 level marked at 90.565. Specifically, price broke above this level back in 2018. Over on the hourly, we're seeing price holding higher on the 90.75 level. If price holds, we can expect short term upside and trade around our major pairs accordingly.
Dollar index stalls at the 92.2 levelNo directional bias at this point, but how it plays around this level may hint at momentum plays on the major pairs for the weak ahead.
Note that ideas published represent my viewpoints on structural directional movements. I do not post explicit trade parameters (i.e. entry, take profit, stop loss, etc.) as these are set to in reference with my expectancy. Since my win rate and R-multiple targets are different, ideas published are simply a resource to provide guidance. You are expected to manage your own trading decisions.
DXY - Important Key Level and Fib Retracement ( Bullish )Welcome!
What's up traders! Thanks for Jumping back on my Analysis, 👨💻 Trader champ is here behind the charts, Hit the thumbs up 👍 and support the work
Follow the trade plans and notes. Sketch up your own trade setup and make sure you meet with the required confirmations first, before you make your move!
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Traders Disclaimer: Non of our analysis or trade setups which is shared here on trading view is a trading advice. As we keep on weekly updates with our predictions and expectations. We may take them as a trades only if trade setups meets the required criteria ( Confirmations ). We will never make a move or look back if trade setup invalidates with price action or future economical movements. Understanding the markets is the key behind all success stories. So never miscalculate under estimate anything which is out of your bounds. Take them at your own risk as trading is highly risky and you may loss your investments.
W/C 02.11.2020 - DXYElections on the way in the USA this coming Tuesday. Its going to be crazy. Lots of volatility expected and possibly black swan events. Markets could be gapping hundreds of pips... I have marked levels here on weekly I am watching. 2 areas of importance here, plus the FVG above market above 98 - If we gap into that and reject it will be a wild ride across the markets. Best to stay out of this this chaos. But cant wait to monitor what happens
What to anticipate ahead of the US elections Volatility 2020📌 US Elections have been and are always expected to be an extremely volatile event worldwide. Elections, similar to other political or banking sector events, are notably treated by market participants with anticipation and speculation.
📍 Hence as the US election looms, today's Chart is not in regards to the outcome but in regards to current markets positioning just a week prior to the election as well as their future response to each possible outcome.
📍 While we have been facing an overall weak Dollar in the second half of the year, the proclivity for capital being safe harboured in US Treasuries means this is hinged on the global growth outlook establishing a sustainable improving trend, and that in turn may hinge on the world getting through the Covid crisis. However, the upcoming US election presents risks too, particularly given the perceived chance of the election being contested.
📍 Markets are anticipating another US fiscal package, although the timing remains uncertain, and the size and scope of it will be dependent on the election result. Wall Street narratives suggest that US stock markets are pricing in a blue wave on November 3, with Democrats sweeping the House, Senate and Presidency, which would result in many trillions of Dollars in fiscal support.
📍 So far in October Biden's lead in the polls has deducted the risk of a contested outcome and hence supported the US Equity market to recover since September (after the 1st debate), but also drove the risk sensitive Yen. This comes in contrast with the historical reaction of Stock markets in prior elections.
📍 Historically, the stock market slows down and shows a weaker performance in the period leading up to an election, according to a study from US Bank. On average, the equity market showed a less than 6% gain during election years compared with an 8.5% gain in any other given year.
DXY Meltdown, Keep an Eye on this Level! Welcome!
What's up traders! Thanks for Jumping back on my Analysis, 👨💻 Trader champ is here behind the charts, Hit the thumbs up 👍 and support the work
Follow the trade plans and notes. Sketch up your own trade setup and make sure you meet with the required confirmations first, before you make your move!
________________________________________________
Traders Disclaimer: Non of our analysis or trade setups which is shared here on trading view is a trading advice. As we keep on weekly updates with our predictions and expectations. We may take them as a trades only if trade setups meets the required criteria ( Confirmations ). We will never make a move or look back if trade setup invalidates with price action or future economical movements. Understanding the markets is the key behind all success stories. So never miscalculate under estimate anything which is out of your bounds. Take them at your own risk as trading is highly risky and you may loss your investments.
DXY is Slowly Growing in a Elliot Wave ( Phase 4 Completed )
Welcome!
What's up traders! Thanks for Jumping back on my Analysis, 👨💻 Trader champ is here behind the charts, Hit the thumbs up 👍 and support the work
Follow the trade plans and notes. Sketch up your own trade setup and make sure you meet with the required confirmations first, before you make your move!
________________________________________________
Traders Disclaimer: Non of our analysis or trade setups which is shared here on trading view is a trading advice. As we keep on weekly updates with our predictions and expectations. We may take them as a trades only if trade setups meets the required criteria ( Confirmations ). We will never make a move or look back if trade setup invalidates with price action or future economical movements. Understanding the markets is the key behind all success stories. So never miscalculate under estimate anything which is out of your bounds. Take them at your own risk as trading is highly risky and you may loss your investments.
DXY Quarterly levels to watch20/09/2020 - Dollar is indicating signs it wants to bounce here to the upside in LTF in a short term basis or until we at least hit 94.50s. I will be monitoring what we do at 94.50s on daily as this also provides a decent resistance level for a drop further down to run the low at 88.17. The level 84.79 should also show increase in support and I believe this will be the make or break for the dollar. If this level breaks dollar is really going to go to new lows again in the 70s
USDCAD | SWING - 27 Sep. 2020Hello my friend | Welcome Back.
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If it does not continue to rise, it may head towards the downside to retest the broken triangle and then rise again.
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Here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate No single analysis is To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
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The information given is not a Financial Advice.
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DXY is about to gain more strength
Welcome!
What's up traders! Thanks for Jumping back on my Analysis, 👨💻 Trader champ is here behind the charts, Hit the thumbs up 👍 and support the work
Follow the trade plans and notes. Sketch up your own trade setup and make sure you meet with the required confirmations first, before you make your move!
________________________________________________
Traders Disclaimer: Non of our analysis or trade setups which is shared here on trading view is a trading advice. As we keep on weekly updates with our predictions and expectations. We may take them as a trades only if trade setups meets the required criteria ( Confirmations ). We will never make a move or look back if trade setup invalidates with price action or future economical movements. Understanding the markets is the key behind all success stories. So never miscalculate under estimate anything which is out of your bounds. Take them at your own risk as trading is highly risky and you may loss your investments.
Just siting back and enjoying the show for KAVA
I post the image twice because I'm still getting used to this interface. I digress...
Kava is getting ready to make a big move. SO LONG AS BITCOIN DOES NOT DROP , I'm expecting quite the show. $Kava to a new high of about $7.50 and here is why. It's payday around the globe. In places like Spain, India and other countries the norrm is getting paid only once a month on the first. Kava is only readily available for purchase outside of the US for reasons unbeknownst to me. Nonetheless, we see these big moves lasting about 7 days around the first of each month, as highlighted in the chart. We are just 2 days away from the 1st of September, so buckle up. Just imagine when this hits Binance.US or Coinbase or Crypto.com or any other exchange that Americans have easy access to. Plus! Congress will be back in session and with election day coming near those stimulus checks are bound to his the hands of everyday crypto enthusiast...
Yes, short term downtrend is exhausted. Kava has been moving fast, make corrections opportunities.
Depending on what bitcoin does we will be back on the path to see new ATH, making preview resistances support on the way.
Ps: Announcements coming in the end of the month.
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ideia for swing trades opportunities on the MKRBTC/KAVABTC Ratio