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The only thing that could help the gold bulls at the moment is?Gold lost its 1% daily gain as prices sold off after U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that a trade deal with China is "very close getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we! Trump tweeted Thursday morning. February gold futures immediately began to drop from $1,490 an ounce back to just above the $1,470-an-ounce level. At the time of writing, gold was trading at $1,472.90, down 0.14% on the day. Trump’s tweet boosted investors’ risk appetite, TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News on Thursday. “The tweet from U.S. President got risk appetite hopping here. The S&P 500 was up 0.9%. We had yields jumping higher; the U.S. dollar strengthened. All the elements that typically work for or against gold, worked against it today, “When the president comes out and tells the market that he is optimistic and this is getting done soon, the markets essentially start to believe that expectations of firming growth are for real and there is less of a chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates next year. “There is hope that equity markets will continue to perform well. There is a large vote of confidence in the form of significantly higher equity markets. That’s meaningful for people and drives capital away from risk-averse assets like gold and moves them into the risk-loving portfolio.”Gold rallied around 1% earlier on Thursday after jobless claims surprised on the downside, coming in at 252,000 versus the expected 213,000. Also, the ECB maintained its “highly accommodative” monetary policy in a continued attempt to push inflation higher in the first monetary policy meeting headed by the central bank’s new president Christine Lagarde. “The only thing that could help the gold bulls at the moment is if someone comes out and says that they are nor afraid to walk away from the U.S.-China trade deal,” Summary-We are witnessing sideways movement In the Gold and silver prices over the past week. Many analysts (Including us) believed that a $1450 price level for the yellow metal could be a strong support level which turned out to be positive. We were expecting a decline within the precious metal sector after Friday’s stronger-than-forecast report on U.S. nonfarm payrolls, which rose 266,000 in November however prices kept unchanged which is a slightly positive sign for Bulls. Technical chart and Economic indicators are giving a mixed picture however leaning more towards the bearish camp but we are taking caution and In order to secure our profit We have moved our stop loss in Gold at $1503 and In silver at $18. at the moment gold is near a key technical area – the 10-day moving average of $1,470.59 and the 20-day of $1,471.88. If gold can rally above here, the market may gain some technical momentum however the bigger resistance for gold stands at $1500(psychological level) and $1525 level. Overall it seems the rally we could see in the sector is fairly limited compared to the major breakdown within the precious metal sector which is yet to be seen.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
It's Just Getting StartedAs we are publishing this report Gold is trading at $1464 per ounce however the white metal is hovering around $16.60 We have warned you numerous times about the possible decline we could see in the white metal. we hope you would be Grateful if you have followed our advice if not there's always the next chance. A slightly higher price has been witnessed within the sector in U.S trading on Tuesday. Two key events this week could affect the market in a significant manner. Risk appetite of traders and investors has dropped as Next Sunday (Dec. 15) is the deadline for the imposition of new tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S.We could see an escalation of trade war if president Trump will allow that new tariff to go into effect however most reports are suggesting now that the Dec. 15 deadline will be extended. The other key event of the week is the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It's expected that the Fed won't make any changes in its monetary policy however comments from Fed Chairman Powell could give clues to traders and investors regarding the Fed's future direction. The European Central Bank also meets on monetary policy Thursday. CFTC Gold speculative net positions. The disaggregated report shows that in the week to Dec. 3, money managers’ net-long position rose to 207,962 futures contracts from 194,287 the week before. This was due to fresh buying, as the number of longs increased by 13,552. Gross shorts fell by 123. However, analysts at Commerzbank noted that some speculators are likely to offset their positions Friday after a stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs report – with a 266,000 rise in November nonfarm payrolls – helped U.S. equities and the dollar, undermining gold. CFTC Silver speculative net positions. In the case of silver, money managers’ net-long position fell to 44,173 futures contracts from 48,139 the prior week. The decline came about from both long liquidation (gross longs fell by 2,565 lots) and fresh selling (total shorts rose by 1,401). Summary-We are witnessing sideways movement In the Gold and silver prices over the past week. Many analysts (Including us) believed that a $1450 price level for the yellow metal could be a strong support level which turned out to be positive. We were expecting a decline within the precious metal sector after Friday’s stronger-than-forecast report on U.S. nonfarm payrolls, which rose 266,000 in November however prices kept unchanged which is a slightly positive sign for Bulls. Technical chart and Economic indicators are giving a mixed picture however leaning more towards the bearish camp but we are taking caution and In order to secure our profit We have moved our stop loss in Gold at $1503 and In silver at $18. at the moment gold is near a key technical area – the 10-day moving average of $1,470.59 and the 20-day of $1,471.88. If gold can rally above here, the market may gain some technical momentum however the bigger resistance for gold stands at $1500(psychological level) and $1525 level. Overall it seems the rally we could see in the sector is fairly limited compared to the major breakdown within the precious metal sector which is yet to be seen.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
Gold is going to the moon or will crash below the earth? Please, note-We are still holding our short position both in gold (entered at $1530) and silver (entered at $19) as we could witness the very severe breakdown within the precious metal sector in the upcoming days and months which would ultimately make our positions more profitable. In order to secure our profit We have moved our stop loss in Gold at $1503 and In silver at $18. - Gold prices are trading near steady in midday U.S. trading Monday. Gold and silver traders are awaiting a fresh fundamental spark to help drive prices. U.S. economic data was scant on Monday but the report tempo rapidly picks up speed beginning Tuesday. February gold futures were last down $0.10 an ounce at 1,465.00. March Comex silver prices were last up $0.064 at $16.66 an ounce. The world marketplace is seeing just a bit of risk aversion to start the trading week, following weaker economic data coming out of China, the world’s second-largest economy. China’s exports fell 1.1% in November, year-on-year, including shipments to the U.S. declining 23% in the period. China’s exports were seen up 1.0% in November. Imports were up 0.3% in the same period, and were expected to be unchanged. The U.S. economic highlight of the week is the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Fed is expected to make no changes in its monetary policy. The European Central Bank also meets on monetary policy Thursday. Technically, February gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy and sideways trading. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,489.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,453.10. First resistance is seen at $1,475.00 and then at $1,480.00. First support is seen at $1,456.60 and then at the November low of $1,453.10, ok now let's analyze what smart money is doing within the sector,Large speculators added to their bullish posture in gold during the most recent reporting week based on positioning data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. During the week-long period to Dec. 3 covered by the report, Comex February gold rose $17 to $1,484.40 an ounce, while March silver added 6 cents to $17.248. Net long or short positioning in the CFTC data reflect the difference between the total number of bullish (long) and bearish (short) contracts. Traders monitor the data to gauge the general mood of speculators, although excessively high or low numbers are viewed by many as signs of overbought or oversold markets that may be ripe for price corrections. The disaggregated report shows that in the week to Dec. 3, money managers’ net-long position rose to 207,962 futures contracts from 194,287 the week before. This was due to fresh buying, as the number of longs increased by 13,552. Gross shorts fell by 123. However, analysts at Commerzbank noted that some speculators are likely to offset their positions Friday after a stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs report – with a 266,000 rise in November nonfarm payrolls – helped U.S. equities and the dollar, undermining gold. In the case of silver, money managers’ net-long position fell to 44,173 futures contracts from 48,139 the prior week. The decline came about from both long liquidation (gross longs fell by 2,565 lots) and fresh selling (total shorts rose by 1,401). Summary.We are witnessing sideways movement In the Gold and silver prices over the past week. Technical chart and Economic indicators are giving a mixed picture however leaning more towards the bearish camp but we are taking caution as we haven't seen a breakdown within the precious metal sector even when Major U.S stock indices are making all-time highs every day along with the building permits beating expectations. We still believe that a major breakdown within the precious metal sector is yet to be seen however In order to secure our profit We have moved our stop loss in Gold at $1503 and In silver at $18.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
The Shinny white metal will bring enormous profits to the table Gold and silver prices are steady to weaker in early U.S. trading Thursday. Bulls in both metals have suffered a minor setback late this week and now they need to step up and show some fresh strength to keep their price uptrends on the charts alive. The just-released third estimate of second-quarter U.S. GDP came in at up 2.0%, which was unchanged from the last estimate and in line with market expectations. The markets showed little reaction to the news. Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The up-and-down U.S.-China trade rhetoric is presently in “up” mode following positive comments on the matter from President Trump on Wednesday. Then on Thursday China’s Commerce Ministry said Chinese companies will buy “sizeable amounts” of U.S. soybeans and pork ahead of high-level trade discussions scheduled to take place in October. This has given the world marketplace a bit of a boost in risk appetite. However, the positive news on the world trade front is being blunted by the U.S. House of Representatives considering impeaching Trump over what the House says are illegal comments Trump made to a Ukrainian official. The Trump administration on Wednesday released the transcript of his comments to the official, which is being spun by both Republicans and Democrats to each’s favor. Whether Trump actually gets impeached seems unlikely at this time. However, the inquiry by the House is very likely to bog down the U.S. government to a standstill on new legislation, and is likely to hurt Trump’s foreign policy agenda, including trade negotiations with China. Upbeat economic data coming out of Germany is also assuaging European investors late this week. A consumer sentiment report Thursday showed a higher reading in September than in August, and the September number was also higher than expected. Recent economic data coming out of Germany had been dour. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $56.50 a barrel. The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index trading slightly lower but not far below the high for the year. Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, revised corporate profits, the advance economic indicators report, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and pending home sales. December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded late this week. A four-month-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it in place. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $18.81 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.47. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $18.105 and then at $18.25. Next support is seen at $17.75 and then at $17.58
OANDA:XAGUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
TIME IS TICKING AND THERE IS ONLY 2 HOURS LEFTToday can play out one of two ways — the Federal Reserve introduces a 25-basis point rate cut and gold consolidates, or the central bank doubles down on easing with a 50-basis point cut and gold rallies to new highs. Gold has traded in a range between $1,430 and $1,411 this week, looking to end the session on Friday down 0.55% on the week. August Comex gold futures were last at $1,418.50, up 0.27% on the day. All eyes turn to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision Today. Markets are currently pricing in a 78.6% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 21.4% chance of a 50-basis point cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Markets are widely expecting for the Fed to begin its easing cycle, but what will matter the most is whether the central bank is embarking on a major easing cycle or just a couple of rate cuts. “The fact that overall the U.S. economy is not dropping off a cliff is consistent with our view that we are only looking for a quarter-point cut now, another quarter-point cut before the end of the year, and then the Fed going on hold in 2020,” said CIBC Capital Markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld. “For the Fed to continue on cutting into 2020, you’ll have to have the economy remain very slugging next year.” 25-Basis Point Rate Cut Scenario Gold is likely to consolidate but hold above the $1,400 an ounce mark if the Fed sticks to a 25-basis point cut this Wednesday. “ might go a little bit lower because there is still a portion of the market that is expecting a 50-basis point cut next week. Ultimately, we’ll get a 25-point cut and we’ll a bit of a re-pricing lower in gold ,” said TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay. A break lower in gold and testing of the $1,400 level is most likely in a quarter-point cut scenario, said LaSalle Futures Group senior market strategist Charlie Nedoss. Overall, gold is expected to remain a great long-term buying opportunity to investors, McKay added. “Ultimately, any dip will be a buying opportunity for the longer-term … Gold is very well supported due to global central banks shifting to this easing tone,” he said. The U.S. GDP data from Q2, which came in slightly better-than-expected, will play a role in the Fed’s decision, especially when it comes to inflation . With the U.S. economy slowing to 2.1% in Q2 and Fed’s key inflation metric — core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) — coming in below expectations at 1.8%, it might just be enough to see the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. “Core PCE at 1.8% is further ammunition for the doves at the Fed meeting next week,” McKay noted. The overall economic slowdown, however, was not particularly severe, noted Shenfeld, which is why a 25-basis point cut is the likely scenario. “The items that the Fed is worried about — a decline in global growth rate, the impacts of trade wars on exports, and the impacts on business confidence all showed up in the report,” he said. “A modest dose of interest rate relief will help turn the corner on housing, which has been a drag and support on the continuation of reasonable growth and consumer spending, which together should be enough of a tailwind to offset the drag from a softer global economy.” 50-Basis Point Rate Cut A major cut by 50 basis points would see gold rally to fresh multi-year highs and test the $1,454 levels and possibly higher, according to analysts. “If the Fed does a 50-point cut, we would come back up and test those recent highs $1,454-40,” said Nedoss. “What gold is looking at is that we are in an easing cycle, but where are we in that cycle. We started the year by talking about one rate cut, then two, then three, then back to two.” What Else To Watch A central thing to watch on the global front is how other economies are growing this summer, with a majority of key central banks turning dovish this year, including a new stimulus package that is likely to be introduced by the European Central Bank (ECB) this September. “ plays into the global theme of central banks easing and the negative-yielding debt pile continuing to surge. Other items on the radar next week are the U.S. employment report, the ISM manufacturing index and U.S.-China trade talks.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
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