SILVER'S TIME to TAKE BREATHER Fundamentals:
Bricks buying and geopolitical tensions have kept Gold price elevated pulling up the silver price with it. I believe the Bricks meeting this Sept to be a selling event given that all of the purchase goals (for now) will be met by the meeting. Gold is the stronger of the two metals. I am leaning short Gold but I think silver has more downside potential given recessionary woes (industrial applications).
Seasonal and Election: Looking back Sept-Oct are typically down months for metals.
Technicals: The price is now up against heavy supply zone and major $30 psychological level.
There is a head and shoulders pattern (4r) forming inside of a much larger head and shoulders pattern (2day) (See previous post). At the moment the price has failed to pop back up above the 4hr MA. It may recover. However, I will be selling into strength inside of the the supply zone with a stop on a 2day close above the $30.50 level.
Fed Thoughts: The market has all but priced in a rate cut at this point. Every movement this year has been predicated on them (despite never materializing). I am of the belief that the cut itself will be a selling event regardless of whether or not we get a short lived rally.
Expression: Given that I am skeptical on equities and bearish Silver I will be shorting SILJ given that it has a history of outperforming to the downside on Silver draw downs. In addition, the upside/risk is limited (as much as it can be haha). Major funds are not investing in juniors. They have and will put capital into majors like GOLD and NEM if metals continue to push higher. In addition, miners are not experiencing the upward pressure that Gold and Silver have because central banks and foreign buyers (the reason for the rally in metals) are NOT buying miners, they are buying physical metal. PAAS is also a strong short candidate. It is a basket case (major earnings miss) and will outperform to the downside.
Usdxau
GOLD Scalp buy!Hi Team
This is a quick one - don't miss out!
Within a corrective ABC channel, we have good confirming rejection. With FED coming up, I expect this to be a retracement before a significant drop following the expected USD rate hike.
I am going to take this buy with SL below the structure, looking for closure in the sell region marked in red.
I will post a short closer to that time.
Like what I do? Like, comment, share - I appreciate you!
Good luck, trade safe.
DrBear
Gold H4 - Short Signal UPDATEGold H4
Selling off nicely here, a little consolidation, but seemingly breaking that short as we speak. As mentioned, the next target we have for this pair would be $1827.
We have been speaking about commodities in our members chat, and how we notice the last few weeks risk headlines hasn't really correlation with commodities trading directions.
ETH may be starting its catch up runEthereum usually follows the movements of Bitcoin. However, in the last 18 days, Bitcoin has had a massive run while Ethereum has stayed proportionally behind. BTC has gone 75% over is previous ATH while ETH remains 45% under its ATH. Suppose we are about to see a catch up run like in 2017. The gold denominated resistances are 20grs and 33grs. At current prices that is $1,220 and $2,013 respectively.
A run for the 2,000 dollars area could take the ETHBTC pair above the channel it's been for two years.
The idea of using resistances denominated in dollars-per-grams-of-gold is to account for the depreciation of the dollar.