USDX Breaks Out: Gold Struggles For Direction
In the Monday 9 Sept. Oceania & Asia session both Gold & Silver were slow to make traction.
Prior to London session today, the USDX edged closer to 101.50 & made it to this level again, before retracing and breaking out through this level at time of writing. USDX currently 101.60.
Today, I saw some divergence happening between Gold and the USDX, as it rallied Gold did not sell off with the vengeance its normally known for.
Usdxrally
Why the USD is about to rally... See chart below please.
I would not necessarily listen to certain You-Tubers who write-off important momentum indicators like Stochastics & RSI.
My observations of both is that they are wonderful at telling me what is overbought & oversold. When a commodity, currency or stock is in either of these phases, massive & fast swings in price can occur as price comes out of the overbought (shorting) and oversold (buying) conditions.
The timeframe of the Stochastic and RSI which I've noticed has the most power and punch with respect to the above is the Weekly but sometimes the Weekly & Daily & 4HR RSI/Stochastics cross-up (x-up on 30/20 respectively) on their zones (buy) or cross-down (x-down 70/80 respectively) on their zones (short-sell). You really need to see the indicators tick-up (buy) or tick-down (sell) firmly through their respective zones (RSI 30/70) STOCH 20/80).
The following chart is the Weekly for the USDX. The RSI looks to be really getting under price & packing a big momentum-punch upwards soon. Plus the Stochastics Weekly is looking to cross up on its 20 zone at the same time. When they cross-up and if the Daily simultaneously crosses up it will provide a lot of upward price movement in USD and its index USDX.
I have been saying for about a week now that a rally is coming for the USD. This chart is the confirmation.
USDX's Possible Lid On The Gold Price: See Analysis & Chart
During the Thursday 29 August 2024, NY session of Gold & Precious metals trading, I noticed some good momentum in Long-positions, so priced looked to be headed up to test 2531.65 which is firm resistance (and below from 2528.50 & even beneath there), where on Wednesday during the Asian session a lacklustre performance in price-momentum of Gold relative to Silver saw it sell off strongly all the way back to 2493.50. Good-on-you if you got in at that price-point because the Gold-bulls drive price back up so quickly.
I have digressed a bit, this week we have seen the start of a recovery in the US Dollar and the index that tracks it, the USDX tested the 101.50 level during yesterday before moving back down. I mentioned during the last NY session that I was cashing in my long-positions in Gold and looking at a possible short. Well full disclosure I am still Short-gold today Friday in the Asia session. Mind you I had to get Short in & out 2 times because price rallied against me, that is trading.
I even forgot to book my profits during yesterday when price got to 2528.65. Why? I honestly thought the Gold price with its momentum would take 2531.65. There's my mistake. Never anticipate the market. If you have conviction on a firmly held idea with a variety of technical analysis confluence & fundamentals to go with it, then that is different, but saying to myself 'we are going to get over hard resistance zones (2528.50-2531.65) and 'I'm gonna ride this baby all the way to a new high today', that is wishful thinking.
What I have learnt about trading Gold & Precious metals is to book your profits. Then you can let price retrace and go again in the same previous direction that booked you all that profit.
Anyway, take a look at my chart, please and keep an eye on a break of the 101.50 area where the USDX could engage in a more firmly held rally as we head towards the 'interest rate decision' in the USA in a few weeks time. I think that the Gold-price is extra sensitive to the Dollar at this point in time and I think the rally in the USDX (see an article I wrote last weekend below - click on the chart) that we are going to see may keep a cap or a lid on the Gold price at least until it explodes upwards on an interest rate reduction. This is my analysis only, I don't get cues from anyone else.
* Trading is risky. Please don't rely solely on my investment advice & trade setups.
Regards,
Chris
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