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USDZAR

Reversal on the cardsThe rand has performed solidly since the start of the year mostly due to Powell's less hawkish stance in his testimony earlier this week and more liquidity entering the market. Yesterday's US CPI print for the month of December, which came in at 0.5% m-o-m down from 0.8% in November, saw the DXY drop 0.62% which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the support rate of 15.50. The next rate of support is the 100-day MA which coincides with the 38.2% Fibo retracement rate at 15.24. I expect this support rate to hold as the stochastic indicator on the pair is trading deep in the oversold zone and the RSI is also nearing its oversold zone. (Both these indicators are deep in the oversold zone on the 4h timeframe) I'm looking at a short-term'ish buy opportunity around 15.24 with TP zone between 15.66 and the 50-day MA at 15.72. A break above this zone could allow the pair to test the major resistance at 16.10.
Long
by GustavFourie96
USDZAR BULLISHLooks we are going to see bullish movement for the USDZAR for the following reasons: we see the market has broken the the decending triangle and has restested the trend line. and bullish movement is expected to continue bullish if it sentiment sticks to the triditional movement of the decending triangle being a bullish movement TUESDAY, JANUARY 4 15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index(Dec) USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index(Dec) USD ISM Manufacturing PMI(Dec) USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid(Dec)
Long
by LUNGU_FX
1
USD/ZAR ewThe pair flew to the 50% Fibo retracement level of 16.37 last week Friday following some fresh virus FUD. A daily close above the critical resistance rate of 16.37 will confirm a channel break out of the longer-term orange channel and send the pair higher towards the 71.8% Fibo rate of 17.07. The pair is however trading in heavily overbought ranges on the RSI and the virus FUD will likely ease which may allow the rand to pull the pair to calmer waters around the 10-day MA of 15.82, over the next two weeks. I'm however not getting my hopes up for a test of the critical support rate of 15.66. Lots of event risk this week, Powell babble as well as from Yellen plus NFP's. (The latest variant FUD may cause Powell to sing a less hawkish tone this week, let's see) From SA, unemployment figures and the latest trade balance. Over the slightly longer-term its seems likely that the current third wave will break the orange channel (fundamentally almost every thing seems the be in favour of further rand weakness). A failed break above 16.37 could however see the start of an ABC corrective wave in January next year.
by GustavFourie96
5
USD/ZAR Forecast: USD Continues to Pummel South African RandThe US dollar initially fell against the South African Rand during trading on Thursday but has bounced quite significantly to break back towards the 16 Rand level. That is a large, round, psychologically significant figure so it does make a certain amount of sense that we will pay close attention to it. Beyond that, the US dollar is strengthening against a lot of emerging market currencies, not just this one. Finally, the omicron variant coming out of South Africa has people pulling money out of that country as a lot of travel has been restricted from there. Because of this, I think the South African Rand probably gets punished. The jobs report comes out of the United States on Friday, so this of course will have a major influence on the greenback as well. Ultimately, I do think that this pair continues to go higher, because the breakout from the 15,000.50 Rand level was a very strong signal, and we recently had the “golden cross” that came into the picture as well. With this being the case, the market is likely going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but nonetheless I do think that we have further to go to the upside. If supply chains continue to be disrupted, money flows into the US bond market, which of course demands US dollars as well. As long as that is going to be the case, emerging market currency such as the Rand will be sold off. Another thing to pay close attention to is the fact that the market is in an uptrend anyway, so therefore I do not have any interest in trying to short this market. In fact, it is not until we break down below the 50 day EMA, currently sitting at the 15.30 Rand level that I would consider trying to fade this rally. The volatility during the day on Friday is hopefully going to send this pair lower so I can buy it at a better price. However, a strong jobs report may send this market screaming to the upside. Furthermore, we will have to pay close attention to the entire situation when it comes to the coronavirus and South Africa, because the market seems to be in a “sell first and ask questions later” type of situation.
by SmoothJB