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USDZAR

USD/ZAR ewThe pair flew to the 50% Fibo retracement level of 16.37 last week Friday following some fresh virus FUD. A daily close above the critical resistance rate of 16.37 will confirm a channel break out of the longer-term orange channel and send the pair higher towards the 71.8% Fibo rate of 17.07. The pair is however trading in heavily overbought ranges on the RSI and the virus FUD will likely ease which may allow the rand to pull the pair to calmer waters around the 10-day MA of 15.82, over the next two weeks. I'm however not getting my hopes up for a test of the critical support rate of 15.66. Lots of event risk this week, Powell babble as well as from Yellen plus NFP's. (The latest variant FUD may cause Powell to sing a less hawkish tone this week, let's see) From SA, unemployment figures and the latest trade balance. Over the slightly longer-term its seems likely that the current third wave will break the orange channel (fundamentally almost every thing seems the be in favour of further rand weakness). A failed break above 16.37 could however see the start of an ABC corrective wave in January next year.
by GustavFourie96
5
USD/ZAR Forecast: USD Continues to Pummel South African RandThe US dollar initially fell against the South African Rand during trading on Thursday but has bounced quite significantly to break back towards the 16 Rand level. That is a large, round, psychologically significant figure so it does make a certain amount of sense that we will pay close attention to it. Beyond that, the US dollar is strengthening against a lot of emerging market currencies, not just this one. Finally, the omicron variant coming out of South Africa has people pulling money out of that country as a lot of travel has been restricted from there. Because of this, I think the South African Rand probably gets punished. The jobs report comes out of the United States on Friday, so this of course will have a major influence on the greenback as well. Ultimately, I do think that this pair continues to go higher, because the breakout from the 15,000.50 Rand level was a very strong signal, and we recently had the “golden cross” that came into the picture as well. With this being the case, the market is likely going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but nonetheless I do think that we have further to go to the upside. If supply chains continue to be disrupted, money flows into the US bond market, which of course demands US dollars as well. As long as that is going to be the case, emerging market currency such as the Rand will be sold off. Another thing to pay close attention to is the fact that the market is in an uptrend anyway, so therefore I do not have any interest in trying to short this market. In fact, it is not until we break down below the 50 day EMA, currently sitting at the 15.30 Rand level that I would consider trying to fade this rally. The volatility during the day on Friday is hopefully going to send this pair lower so I can buy it at a better price. However, a strong jobs report may send this market screaming to the upside. Furthermore, we will have to pay close attention to the entire situation when it comes to the coronavirus and South Africa, because the market seems to be in a “sell first and ask questions later” type of situation.
by SmoothJB
Longer-term USD/ZARThe golden cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA is a long-term buy signal and possibly the start of a fresh impulse wave higher. The daily MACD has also recently crossed to a buy signal after the pair closed above the psychological 15.00 barrier earlier this week. A daily close above the current yearly high of 15.28 could be an early sign of another leg higher towards the 15.60 and the lower 16.00's. Fundamentally, the rand is still struggling to nurse its wounds from the July riots, the SARB is still maintaining a dovish stance (while other emerging market central banks from Russia and Brazil have started hiking) which dampens the rand's carry trade appeal and most importantly imo, precious metal prices (particularly platinum) are still trending lower which is rand negative. In terms of the broader market sentiment, as equity markets continue to hit record highs, crude oil keeps ripping higher and the US treasury yield curve remaining suppressed, I'm hesitant to call an end to the current risk-on wave, which is however rand positive. Yes, the fed has signalled for a possible taper recently and China seems to be reigning in its debt but nothing has spooked the bond or equity markets just yet. SA's trade surplus has supported the rand and tomorrow we'll get the latest trade balance results from SA for the month of September. It currently stands at a healthy surplus of R42.40 billion, but if we are to see a significant reduction of the trade surplus towards year-end, the rand could take quite a tumble.
by GustavFourie96
1
USDZARThis exotic currency pair has been in a bullish trend over the past few weeks, due mostly to South Africa’s ongoing economic and political problems and partly due to USD strength. The news of the origin of a potentially dangerous coronavirus variant emerging in South Africa at the end of last week caused many countries to shut their doors on South African and other African travel, causing the South African Rand to nosedive and send this pair sharply higher to a new 1-year high price on strongly above-average volatility. Unless it is quickly discovered that the omicron variant should not be as problematic as feared, it is hard to see how the closing of doors to South Africa is going to have anything other than a negative effect on the Rand over the coming days. The Japanese yen is stronger than the USD so short ZAR/JPY will probably be a better trade if your Forex broker offers access to it.
TVC:DXYLong
by SmoothJB
USD / ZAR 16.24355 +1.79 % LONG IDEA * CONTINUATION PATTERNHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE, HERE'S A LOOK AT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT IN THE COMING WEEK ON THE DOLLAR / ZAR. - We saw the pair rally with the bulls in this past trading week. --- here's what we had - We closed the week with strong momentum to the upside. - 50 % fib level tested and saw a rejection at this level. - Looking for continuation on the pair for a completion of the impulse. - The new found covid-19 variant might also affect the pair fundamentally. * lets see how it goes. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - SWING TRADE
Long
by PULEMokhothu
3