USDZAR Top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDZAR
USDZAR Swing tradeI only take high probability trades. I love clean swing trades like this one cos I dont like being on the charts all the time, nor everyday all day. Should price break above the Blue line I am going to allow my trades to run.
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This is not financial advice. Forex trading is a risky business. Trade at your own risk. Remember to exercise proper risk management and have the patience to see your trades play out.
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BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR USDZARAfter a long bearish trend for USDZAR over the past two weeks, finally, the price was able to reach the weekly support cluster. We can also see the loss of momentum as the price approaches this zone. Moreover, there's formation of a bearish channel on the zone which signifies a potential reversal. To buy the market wait for the breakout of the channel then buy on the retest.
NB; Trade carefully and wait for clear price action to enter the market as market conditions can change anytime.
What is your plan on USDZAR? Bullish or Bearish, comment below!
USD/ZAR: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + SHARK PATTERN FORMATION 🔔The South African Current Account for the second quarter is predicted at ZAR305.1B, and to the Current Account Percentage of GDP at 4.90%. Forex traders can compare this to the South African Current Account for the first quarter, reported at ZAR267.3B, and the Current Account Percentage of GDP at 5.00%.
South African Manufacturing Production for July is predicted to decrease 3.0% monthly and increase 3.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to South African Manufacturing Production for June, which decreased 0.7% monthly and increased 12.5% annualized.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of September 4th are predicted at 335K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of August 28th are predicted at 2,744K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of August 28th, reported at 340K, and to US Continuing Claims for the week of August 21st, reported at 2,748K.
The forecast for the USD/ZAR remains bearish despite its recent sell-off.
Can bears extend their dominance over the USD/ZAR and force more downside?
USDZAR seeing some chunky price movesIn these moribund markets you have to move further out on the risk curve and look at more exotic currency pairs for vol and sizeable pip moves - my former place of birth's currency, the rand, doesn't disappoint in this regard. For example, the 14 period ATR currently reads just above 2000 pips. Price has retraced its risk-off losses from 2 weeks prior. There are a couple factors working in the rand’s favour – GDP re-estimation higher, healthier balance sheet of the national electricity provider Eskom, solid rebound in PMI. However, the rand does have a high beta to risk and there are new mutations arising, which if potent enough could sour risk sentiment again and hurt the rand. Additionally, when the Fed starts tightening the screws with their monetary policy (especially if the upcoming job reports are robust), we will see outflows and this will pressure the rand. Lastly, given the strong rallies we've seen in precious metals SA has achieved a significant current account surplus. However, going forward their terms of trade will get hit hard if oil moves higher and gold lower, which to me seems like the probable path for both assets as the Fed tightens (real yields higher - hurts gold) and the economy reopens.
The RSI hit overbought and signalled the near term top for price. Price is now just below its 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA. A golden cross/death cross looks imminent. There is horizontal support at the 14.5 level. Price is also below its lower trend line of the ascending channel. The target on the downside would be the strong 14.2 horizontal support. On the upside, weakness in the rand could see moves toward the round number of 15.
(Luke Suddards)