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USDZAR

USD/ZAR short 300 pips!USD/ZAR will have a correction this or next week. Heavy resistance at this level and monthly fib at 15.0267. Market psychology took this pair too highe due to political uncertainty and covid. We are familiar with extended trends with respect to covid. ZAR is heavily correlated with metals and bonds, especially lower yields will be bullish for ZAR, higher base metal value will be bullish for ZAR, but not so much as yields. Technical analysis shows strong resistance and DXY may have a correction soon. Which further supports the claim for bearish USD/ZAR to about 300 pips.
Short
by libertasrei
7
USD/ZAR UPDATED ANALYSISYou can see if we put both the DXY and USD/ZAR next to each other how well they correlate at the moment. Both charts have retraced respectively giving a strong narrative that if the DXY respects the trend and moves higher, that USD/ZAR will follow suite. The South African economy has taken a huge knock this week due to extended Covid restrictions but more importantly, the looting of major retail enterprises. Yesterday South Africa released it's Retail Sales YY* results which came in at 15.8% which, when compared to the prior results of 95.7%, is insane. If you piece all of this information together then it is reasonable to assume that the Rand will continue to weaken against the Dollar for the foreseeable future.
Long
by skypointmarkets
USDZAR 2021The USDZAR pair is currently sitting in the consolidative blue triangle. As long as the DXY remains below 92.800 and platinum stays above $1015, I expect the pair to complete an ABC corrective pattern. A break above the 200-week MA rate of 14.59 could however see the pair move into the range between 15.50 and 16.00. The fundamentals that drove the rand stronger in 2020 and the first half of 2021 are still present. SA is still holding a healthy trade surplus, the rand still has strong carry trade appeal and commodity prices remain stable. I remain doubtful that the FED will taper their minimum $120 billion in asset purchases this year despite their recent "hawkish" monetary policy stance. China's credit impulse has recently turned negative which could weigh on commodity price growth in the next two quarters but the news that China cut their reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points earlier today has me remaining bullish on commodity prices (Chinese credit expansion will support commodity demand).
by GustavFourie96
USDZAR Upcoming Swing ShortAnalysis done on the weekly timeframe. As you can see, USDZAR is in a clear downtrend. I expect price to come up closer to the trendline before ultimately heading down again. I have identified several key support and resistance levels from the weekly TF also. This is just my analysis, i've never actually traded any exotic pairs. If anyone has any advice or tips for exotics, specifically UZ, i would appreciate it if you could comment them. Only reason i even ended up checking it out was because i read an article on Bloomberg about SA struggling with covid vaccines, so i figured this could be a good opportunity to swing. I may take a short on a small lotsize once price comes up to an ideal entry.
Short
by darbova
1
ZAR strength not necessarily overMedium-term bullish trend still seems to be intact for the USDZAR, after its recent weaknesses (strength in the US Dollar). It currently finds itself back at the 50-day Moving Average (EMA), with a break and close below R14.07, bringing back the strong support level at R13.95. This is a strong support level, with a break lower, most probably bringing back R13.50 (short-term target). Should we however see further weakness, with a break above the bullish trendline at R14.30, could see the USDZAR only find resistance again at the 200-day EMA at R14.86. For now, I still believe that the Rand is in oversold territory, which is confirmed by its 14-day RSI.
Short
by SchalkLouw
4
USDZAR (Dollar-Range) Faces Big Picture TechnicalsThough much of the attention in the FX market automatically goes to the majors, there are some remarkable technical pictures among the Dollar-based EM pairs. In particular, I am impressed by the pattern shaped by USDZAR through the past year. The post-pandemic recovery trendline resistance is still guiding the exchange rate lower, but we are starting to come upon far more significant support levels founded on years of price action. A break in either direction would likely require a significant escalation in conviction beyond the casual drift we have seen these past months. If risk appetite continues to rise, the 3.50% benchmark yield on the Rand could draw more appeal, but the forecast for this rate's path is not particularly encouraging. So, while a haven bid would certainly benefit the Greenback, even comparative yield forecasting could benefit a USDZAR bullish view. Overall, the easier technical move would be to clear resistance in the trendline and 100-day moving average.
Long
by JohnKicklighter