Get started

USDZAR

USDZAR 2021The USDZAR pair is currently sitting in the consolidative blue triangle. As long as the DXY remains below 92.800 and platinum stays above $1015, I expect the pair to complete an ABC corrective pattern. A break above the 200-week MA rate of 14.59 could however see the pair move into the range between 15.50 and 16.00. The fundamentals that drove the rand stronger in 2020 and the first half of 2021 are still present. SA is still holding a healthy trade surplus, the rand still has strong carry trade appeal and commodity prices remain stable. I remain doubtful that the FED will taper their minimum $120 billion in asset purchases this year despite their recent "hawkish" monetary policy stance. China's credit impulse has recently turned negative which could weigh on commodity price growth in the next two quarters but the news that China cut their reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points earlier today has me remaining bullish on commodity prices (Chinese credit expansion will support commodity demand).
by GustavFourie96
USDZAR Upcoming Swing ShortAnalysis done on the weekly timeframe. As you can see, USDZAR is in a clear downtrend. I expect price to come up closer to the trendline before ultimately heading down again. I have identified several key support and resistance levels from the weekly TF also. This is just my analysis, i've never actually traded any exotic pairs. If anyone has any advice or tips for exotics, specifically UZ, i would appreciate it if you could comment them. Only reason i even ended up checking it out was because i read an article on Bloomberg about SA struggling with covid vaccines, so i figured this could be a good opportunity to swing. I may take a short on a small lotsize once price comes up to an ideal entry.
Short
by darbova
1
ZAR strength not necessarily overMedium-term bullish trend still seems to be intact for the USDZAR, after its recent weaknesses (strength in the US Dollar). It currently finds itself back at the 50-day Moving Average (EMA), with a break and close below R14.07, bringing back the strong support level at R13.95. This is a strong support level, with a break lower, most probably bringing back R13.50 (short-term target). Should we however see further weakness, with a break above the bullish trendline at R14.30, could see the USDZAR only find resistance again at the 200-day EMA at R14.86. For now, I still believe that the Rand is in oversold territory, which is confirmed by its 14-day RSI.
Short
by SchalkLouw
4
USDZAR (Dollar-Range) Faces Big Picture TechnicalsThough much of the attention in the FX market automatically goes to the majors, there are some remarkable technical pictures among the Dollar-based EM pairs. In particular, I am impressed by the pattern shaped by USDZAR through the past year. The post-pandemic recovery trendline resistance is still guiding the exchange rate lower, but we are starting to come upon far more significant support levels founded on years of price action. A break in either direction would likely require a significant escalation in conviction beyond the casual drift we have seen these past months. If risk appetite continues to rise, the 3.50% benchmark yield on the Rand could draw more appeal, but the forecast for this rate's path is not particularly encouraging. So, while a haven bid would certainly benefit the Greenback, even comparative yield forecasting could benefit a USDZAR bullish view. Overall, the easier technical move would be to clear resistance in the trendline and 100-day moving average.
Long
by JohnKicklighter
USD/ZAR: FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST | PRICE ACTION | SHORT SCENARIO 🔔The South African Current Account for the first quarter is predicted at ZAR182.1B, and the Current Account Percentage of GDP at 3.55%. Forex traders can compare this to the South African Current Account for the fourth quarter, reported at ZAR197.7B, and to the Current Account Percentage of GDP at 3.70%. South African Mining Production for April is predicted to increase by 105.0% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to South African Mining Production for March, which increased by 21.3%. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of June 5th are predicted at 370K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of May 29th are predicted at 3,602K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of May 29th, reported at 385K, and to US Continuing Claims for the week of May 22nd, reported at 3,771K. The US CPI for May is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and by 4.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US CPI for April, which increased by 0.8% monthly and by 4.2% annualized. The US Core CPI for May is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and by 3.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Core CPI for April, which increased by 0.9% monthly and by 3.0% annualized. Volatility may increase after today’s CPI report out of the US and with the CCI moving higher, but the downtrend is intact.US Dollar weakness is expected to continue, but will bears take advantage of the momentum and pressure the USD/ZAR into its next horizontal support area?
Short
by FOREXN1
3