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USDZAR

USDZAR updateI may be forced to change my view of a drop towards 13.20 if the pair fails to close this week below 14.00. A break above the 30-day MA rate of 14.25 will allow the pair to move into a range between the 200-week MA rate of 14.55 and the 61.8% Fibo rate of 14.51. A close above 14.51 will invalidate the move towards 13.20. The MACD indicator is working into a wedge which shows that the rand's run is maturing and their is clear bullish divergence on the RSI indicator. For now we remain in a tentative range between 14.00 and 14.20.
by GustavFourie96
1
USDZAR 14.28480 + 0.17 % LONG IDEA * PRICE ACTION & STRUCTURE HELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK, HERE'S A LOOK AT THE DOLLAR / ZAR . * follow your entry rules on entries * significant moves with the bears change the plan. lets see how it goes. many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules. HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN... _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES RISK-MANAGEMENT PERIOD - SWING TRADE __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
Long
by PULEMokhothu
USD / ZAR * TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN SWING IDEA STRUCTURE & PRICE ACTHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK, HERE'S A LOOK AT THE DOLLAR / ZAR. * LOOKING AT THE DOLLAR ZAR FROM HIGHER T/F LOOKING FOR DIRECTION, STUCTURE & SENTIMENT WE SEE THE PAIR HAS BEEN TRADING IN AN ASCENDING CHANNEL RESPECTING STRUCTURE TO AN EXTEND. * POSSIBLE SCENARIO 1 - WE COULD SEE A BREAK BELOW / FAKE OUT TESITING SUPPORT LEVEL 11.53256, OR SCENARIO 2 - STRUCTURE WILL HOLD AND WE'LL SEE THE DOLLAR REGAIN STRGHTH AGAINST ZAR. ONLY TIME WILL TELL * follow your entry rules on entries * significant moves with the bears change the plan. lets see how it goes. many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules. HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN... _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES RISK-MANAGEMENT PERIOD - SWING TRADE __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
by PULEMokhothu
A differnt perspective on the value of the randAccurately and reliably forecasting a currency is near impossible, however, its easy to have an opinion. The question is, what do you base your opinion on? As a South African, I follow the rand closely, particularly against the US dollar and the pound. One can use a purchasing power parity (PPP) or real effective exchange rate (REER) chart to calculate a "fair value" through analyzing the numbers. But the rand has everything to do with sentiment and the global economy and very little to do with the South Africa economy. I put this chart together to try and understand the rand from a global context. Assumption: there is a high correlation between the price of gold in US dollars and the M2 money supply. The chart shows the M2 money supply in orange compared to the price of gold in rand terms which is shown by the blue line. We can see that the two lines have significantly diverged from each other over the last 8 months. If we assume that the M2 line will only ever go up and can never revert down, then we can assume that the price of gold in rand terms must also go up over time, all else being equal. It would therefore stand to reason that the price of gold in rand terms is in a cyclical low and may suggest an attractive entry point. What about the correlation between the price of gold in rand terms vs the rand dollar exchange rate? The green line shows the rand dollar exchange rate in comparison to the price of gold in rand terms. It's evident that there is a high correlation between the two however, the the divergence between the two particularly over the last 2 years, shows the real appreciation in the price of gold. So where does that leave us? The assumption that the price of gold in rand terms is correlated to that of the M2 money supply, suggests that the price of gold in rand terms needs to increase. The correlation between the price of gold in rand terms and the rand dollar exchange rate suggests that the rand needs to weaken or depreciate over time. Makes sense? I therefore ask the question as to whether the denominator that one should also follow over time is actually the direction of the M2 money supply in relation to the rand? This also backs into monetary policy in the largest economies and the US in particular. It stands to reason that the rand is far to strong at these levels if the world continues to print money? Its not sustainable! Thoughts? Please like and follow for daily posts on various asset classes. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader. Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
FX_IDC:XAUZAR
by JesseMorgans