Emerging market FX to fall another 4-5% - Morgan StanleyIn other words, they expect a stronger dollar narrative to prevail.
The firm is downgrading their view on emerging market (EM) FX for the second time in two weeks, expecting another 4-5% drop given the current market landscape.
The MSCI EM currency index fell by 0.7% at the lows today and was poised for its biggest daily drop since March last year, only to recover a little upon testing the key support.
That highlights the dollar's standing right now in the market and how vulnerable other currencies, including EM currencies, are to the recent resurgence in the greenback.
Now, from a technical analysis, wait for the price to form a continuation pattern and watch strong price action for buy.
USDZAR
ZAR Going to Melt - USDZAR Swing LongsPrice has given a reaction off of the key monthly level that has been refined.
Looking at South Africa, we can really see the devaluation of the ZAR coming. Additionally, this structure is looking gorgeous for upside.
We have a bunch of liquidity to target at around the 17.5 - 18.0 level, which majority of the positions will be shed; however, I'll be holding for $20.
I will scale in longs until we hit the EQB level at 16.85. After that, I will hold until we hit our swing target.
This will likely be a very quick impulse, so we're going to try and scale in as early as we can! Missed some opps already, but will keep on top of it now.
Cheers,
Matt
The rand looks a bit strong there...Is it just me or does the Rand look a bit strong against the dollar?
Raising US yields has put some pressure on EM currencies. The rand being one of the most liquid of the lot. Perhaps its time for a correction to R14.90 - R15 over the next 2-3 weeks?
Lets see :)
Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
USDZAR 14.93870 + 0.05 % LONG IDEA * STRUCTURE & PRICE ACTION Good day everyone
Hope everyone is having a good week in the markets and a beautiful day ahead.
Here's a look at the USDZAR from the 4H chart
* The pair is currently trading in a Symmetrical triangles which occur when a security's price is consolidating
* The pair has touched the roof of structure twice and saw a rejection acting as a resistance level.
* The symmetrical structure pattern has been respected, looking for a break above o structure to signal continuation with the bulls
*^ A break below of structure changes The trading plan.
* follow your entry rules on entries
* significant moves with the bears change the plan.
lets see how it goes.
AS ALWAYS PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT AND A LOT OF PATIENCE & AGAIN many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules.
HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN...
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ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES
RISK-MANAGEMENT
PERIOD - SWING TRADE
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If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
USDZAR 14.67900 + 0.57 % LONG IDEA * PRICE ACTION AND STRUCTURE Hey everyone
Here's a look at the DOLLAR / ZAR from the 4H perspective Hope everyone is good and having yourselves a good weekend.
* The pair has been ranging at the base of a descending channel even saw a break below of the structure.
* This is until that impulse move with the bulls which saw a correction in the form of a bull flag.
* Looking to see continuation with the bulls so basically looking for a break above of structure to see continuation with the bulls.
* follow your entry rules on entries
* significant moves with the bears change the plan.
lets see how it goes.
AS ALWAYS PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT AND A LOT OF PATIENCE & AGAIN many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules.
HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN...
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES
RISK-MANAGEMENT
PERIOD - SWING TRADE
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
USDZAR, the 200 WMA does it again and again. #USDZARI don't want to spoil the party for the ZAR bulls, but what has popped up in my analysis for years is how sticky the ZAR is to the 200 week moving average (WMA). Look at the blue boxes i have highlighted and it is not difficult to see how often the rand retraces back to this 200 week ma before weakening. This moving average almost feels like a magnet that brings price back but then loses all its force once it gets close enough. Also watch the positive divergence on the RSI which could be another clue. This chart seems to support my technical view on the DXY chart i just posted and i would thus expect the Rand to weaken against the dollar if that view plays out. Watch for a break above both the channel and horizontal level at approximately 15.25. If we get a weekly close above this level, then you we can expect the ZAR to once again be on the back-foot going forward.
USD/ZAR KEY ZONE STUDY - read contentsThis is for demonstration and educational purposes. Price is currently sitting on a key zone, with one additional key zone beneath. Although I do believe price is setting up for a buy long term; in the short term we do have to consider there is one additional key zone beneath, where price could test. Watch for a breakout in either direction, and a re-test before buying to the upside.
USDZAR// Long OpporunityFirstly, if your broker doesn't have a decent spread that you think you can work with, forget about this.
Price is currently at an area of strong S/R.
I see an M formation.
Multiple Harmonic Patterns have completed from this area, others well within PRZ.
With every trade comes risk, however Exotics provide more risk than usual. But I do think this is a good opportunity to go long, to gain exposure to currencies outside the usual. I recommend using a small lot size with a healthy SL.
Open to other opinions.
USDZAR Accurate Wave AnalysisFrom the chart you can see that this pair is in a corrective structure. There was an abc down another abc up now i expect a 12345 down before we get the next 12345 up. As the pattern develops i will keep this idea updated, so like, comment, follow so you don't miss any update. Thank you.