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USDZAR

USD/ZAR. Big data expected to bring big movesThe rand managed to pull the pair to a daily close below the 50-day MA, yesterday, off the back of a broadly weaker dollar. There was no data driving the weakness in the greenback but it seems the weakness is stemming from the “plausible soft landing” narrative and the stable decline in US 10-year bond yield since the beginning of the year. Today’s calendar has the potential to kick-start a fresh trend on the USD/ZAR pair. The 50-day MA, currently at 17.14, has acted like a magnet these past 5 trading sessions with no clear break as of yet. The 200-day MA at 16.91 is creeping higher and will serve as a key support rate in today’s potentially wide range session. The 200-day MA also coincides with the neckline of the blue channel. Events for the day: The SARB will announce their first interest rate decision today and it is widely expected that the bank will hike rate by another 50bps up to 7.50%, no real surprises there. The SARB will stick to their hawkish stance as SA inflation (7.500%) still sits stubbornly above the 3-6% target range. The volatility will come from the US GDP print for 2022Q4. QoQ growth is expected to print 2.6% down from 3.2% in 2022Q3. It is becoming increasingly difficult to gauge how the markets will digest macro data releases but a print below expectations will be dollar positive as it will dent the “soft landing” narrative while a higher-than-expected print will add fuel to the risk-on fire in my opinion. Scenarios: 1. Stronger than expected US GDP: USD/ZAR to break below the 200-day MA and possibly test the current yearly low of 16.70. 2. Weaker than expected US GDP: Confirmed break above the 50-day MA to push higher and test the resistance range between 17.39 (blue 38.2% Fibo retracement) and 17.50 (orange 23.6% Fibo retracement rate). I’m personally favouring this scenario, but it obviously depends on how they cook the data haha. Technical indicators: Bullish divergence is still present on the RSI (rand negative). The MACD indicator is still holding a daily buy signal, but its momentum has pattered out this week, but the buy signal is still rand negative. The DXY is also hovering in a strong support range and its weekly RSI is nearing oversold levels which may support the greenback in the weeks to come (see the attached snippet)
by Goose96
2
Dollar gain strength again SA randUSDZAR gained momentum in pushing to the upside since South africa had a negative impact on the economy due to the poper supply issue. We our first price target from last week was that price would hit 17.50 but now that it has made multiple breakout on certain levels we looking forward for the price to head around 17.70. We see a very clear price has reached the RS ZONE on 1H TM and 4H TM. We take longs just after few countable minutes from market open. Most preferable time will be 01h15 am +2 GTM Johannesburg time zone.
Long
by ipot-officialtrader
Oscillations around 200-day MA support (short-term)The rand managed to pull the pair below the 200-day MA, currently at 16.82, last week Thursday following the US CPI print. The pair is however finding support around its 200-day MA and the dollar strength in today's early morning session has seen the pair blast up to the blue 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.12. The macro risk-on factors mentioned below are rand positive, but the technical indicators are not. The divergence on the RSI and the buy signal on the MACD have me leaning towards another test of the 50-day MA rate of 17.19 and a break higher towards the 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 17.39 and the current yearly high of 17.44. The US CPI print for December added fresh wind into the risk-on sails as the CPI result was in line with expectations at 6.5% and 0.6% lower than November’s print. Last week’s lower than expected initial jobless claims coupled with the strong December non-farm payrolls data is also supportive of the narrative of a strong US labour market. On paper US inflation seems to be easing and its labour market is looking resilient which has the market optimistic for a ‘soft landing’ following the current rate hiking cycle. The current risk-on sentiment in the markets can also be seen in the early year gains for the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 which has gained roughly 5.50% and 7.02%, respectfully, since the start of the year.
Long
by Goose96
2
USDZARTrade are still running patience pays, Big changes for state companies and nationalising the Reserve Bank – here are key proposals from the ANC The ANC suggested that measures be taken to contain state debt and said that the introduction of a wealth tax be considered to reduce inequality. The draft policy documents also reiterate that the government should establish a state bank, even though Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has warned that the country can’t afford to fund it. Central Bank The documents state that the “historic anomaly of the private ownership of the South African Reserve Bank must be corrected, in a manner that does not enrich speculators or overburden the fiscus.” The SARB is one of a handful of global central banks owned by investors — including individuals, commercial banks and pension funds — though its shareholders have no say over monetary policy or the appointment of its governors and Monetary Policy Committee. While the ANC first decided in 2017 that the state should own the central bank, the process — which will require a change to the Reserve Bank Act and an agreement on the price of shares — has stalled. The ANC called on the SARB to “implement monetary policy in a balanced manner, taking into account growth, employment, and exchange rate factors.” The Reserve Bank implements its inflation-targeting mandate in the interest of balanced and sustainable growth, in line with the constitution, and has repeatedly said the obstacles to bolstering output fall outside the scope of monetary policy.
Long
by Mike_SnD
2
USDZAR possible drop to support level!Currency Pair : USDZAE Possible direction : Bearish Technical Analysis : Price has formed multiple liquidity grab on the 4h timeframe after an strong impulse from the resistance level. As long term trend is bearish, highly likely this price will continue to drop to support level Possible trade recommendation : Bearish as per chart sketch Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
Short
by ForexWizard01
Daily USDZAR 50-day and 200-day MA squeezeThe DXY and the US 10-year yield fell sharply following Friday’s better than expected non-farm payrolls report for the month of December 2021 which saw the pair reject the 50-day MA at 17.30 as well as the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement level of 17.44. The dollar started this week on the back foot in the local session which has allowed the rand to test the psychological rate of 17.00. The pair is currently oscillating between its 200-day MA at 16.76 and the 50-day MA at 17.30 with no clear direction as of yet. As per my weekly timeframe idea (link in the description) a failed break below the support range between 16.80-16.86 could see the pair break above the 50-day MA and higher towards the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.87. A break below 16.80 will however allow the rand to pull the pair to the orange 50% Fibo retracement level of 16.36. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is showing divergence which is rand negative and has me leaning towards a break above 17.30 over a break below 16.76. The MACD is currently holding an unconvincing buy signal so I’m not placing any significance on it at the moment. I’ll update the idea since I’m not giving any conclusive direction for the pair.
by Goose96
USDZAR Price Starts To RallyPrice has been trading bearish for a while now this is a potential corrective A-B-C Zig-Zag move. The wave (C) is a possible Ending Contracting Diagonal Pattern. The wave sure seems very short and may not be complete as of yet. We know from a Zig-Zag pattern that waves A and C are often equal so we do have to keep in mind that we could still possibly see a sell-off this would be a Leading Diagonal but not Ending, but for the most part, we definitely are bullish.
Long
by Weshareio
3