Get started

USDZAR

Rand looking positive heading into year-end.The USD/ZAR pair seems to be in an ABC corrective wave pattern after completing a 5-wave impulse that commenced in April this year. Following last week's presidency scare, the rand has been able to pull the pair back below the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.50. Positively for the rand, it managed to keep the pair below the 50-day MA resistance rate of 17.74 and the neckline of the upward blue channel. The major support rates that need to give way for further rand strength as we head into year-end sits on the 38.2% Fibo rate of 16.87 and the major support of 16.80, the 61.8% Fibo retracement from the rand post covid bull run. As long as 16.80 holds the possibility of seeing 19.34 still remains. I'm however expecting a re-test of the support range between 16.80 and 16.86 and a break below this range will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the 200-day MA of 16.50. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is showing bearish divergence, which is rand positive. Conversely, there is currently a buy signal on the MACD following last week's presidency scare. Apart from increased loadshedding and electricity uncertainty the fundamentals for the rand are looking relatively positive. SA GDP increased 1.6% q-o-q in 3Q2022, putting the economy back above pre-pandemic levels. Agriculture grew 19.2% in this period which will boost exports going into year-end which is rand positve. SA 10-year government bonds currently yield 9.105%, so the carry trade is still strong as US 10-year treasuries currently sit at 3.540%, down from the highs of 4.25% in October. In terms of commodities (the rand behaves as a commodity currency) I mainly look at platinum. Platinum is currently trading around $990 per ounce, up 19.57% from the lows we saw in August.
Short
by Goose96
3
South African Rand in no mans land but can strengthen soonIt's been an interesting development with the USDZAR. Since it broke out of April's uptrend, the price is now retesting the resistance (which was support). I suspect that the price will be oscillating between the range of 17.63 and 16.91 in a box formation for a few weeks. Only if the price breaks above or below, will we get some sign of where the rand is going. For instance, if it breaks below, it would have formed an Inverse Cup and Handle showing major downside for the USD to come (which we can hope for). If the price breaks out, the fakeout will spook the bears and the price will run up to ATH... I'm bearish overall, but only time will tell.
by Timonrosso
1
The rand is going up FINALLY! Target R15.92 - With confusion!Rounding Top (Scallop) has formed on the daily chart. The price has broken below the neckline which signals bearish for USD Also the moving averages are almost looking good. 21 > 7 >200 - Bearish First target R15.92 The correlation between the Rand and the JSE stocks have somewhat reversed as of late. When stocks rise, the rand tends to strengthen and vice versa. Now this makes sense in a way that a stronger rand means more buying power for consumers and more confidence in the economy. However, we are a HIGH export country where we export in US dollars. As the heavy weightings of the JSE is with resources, we used to fall with a weakening US dollar. Also, we tend to mirror the S&P500 and the DOw Jones as it's a leading indicator. So the question we need to ask is... Is America signalling that we are in for massive downside again soon and this has just been a bull trap for us buyers. OR is this the change in correlation where the JSE will continue up despite what happens in America and the US Dolla. I Hope the latter. Things aren't as they always seem.
Short
by Timonrosso
3
USD/ZAR Wave 5 Sell-OffUSDZAR has been trading bullish in the long-term or higher timeframe, we are currently trading in a corrective phase as a 1-2-3-4-5 where wave 1-2-3-4 has already occurred and we are waiting for wave 5 completion. Wave 4 is a possible triangle pattern, keep in mind that waves 1 and 4 can not overlap so we can use that idea to use as stop loss or invalidation level. After wave 5 completion, we can expect a short-term corrective pattern in the upside direction before the last drop as a (c) wave.
Short
by Weshareio
USDZAR WeeklyThe best time to analyze the market is when its closed. After a analyzing the weekly chart of USDZAR, I think this market could continue its overall trend to the upside. The market is currently under the 14MA, meaning this market is selling. Lets compare last week engulfed sell candle compared to this week. WHERE IS THE SELLING MOMENTUM? It does not make any sense for this market to have amazing selling power last week and this week it died down. Consistency is key and this market is NOT consistent in the selling momentum. Looking at this market, I am expecting USDZAR to continue to travel towards the upside and I am expecting this market to break the highest high 19.06 continuing to go higher. We will see :)
by Vanaaad
6