Anticipating a dropPrice has been bullish until the 4h fair value gap got triggered at 18.50000. Now we have a bearish sentiment, because price swept the 4h liquidity before the mitigation. To strengthen this scenario price has cleared the swing low to give us displacement, we are now looking for a flip that will make a sweep and simultaneously mitigate the rejection block at 18.38950 for bearish positions. This rejection block resonates with our 4h fair value gap, however, we should be wary of the unmitigated zone above. Fundamentally USDZAR is expected to trade at 17.00000.
Looking to risk 600 pips in order to accumulate 3000 pips…
Usdzaranalysis
USDZAR ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK (starting 20/05)USDZAR has been bearish for quite some time now, breaking several structures downwards too. On both the weekly and daily TFs you can see some imbalance downwards which seems to be attracting the price further downwards to demand.
From what I can see on the 4H - price has actually respected previously created blocks, especially after the most significant break (the one that broke the low on the daily) making me wonder whether it’ll continue to do so while continuing it’s downwards push to demand.
USDZAR is bearish and I’d only short.
TP1: 17.86800
Final TP: 17.66375
U.S Macro Supports ZAR MomentumDespite the South African local election being only 14 days away, speculation of U.S. interest rate cuts over the last two months has supported the rand momentum.
We're approaching a crucial level at the Fibonacci retracement, but a reversal may be unlikely given a widening USDZAR carry trade and a disinflationary U.S. environment, which will support the ZAR's momentum until the end of Q2.
A momentum break of 18.27 will spur price action toward 17.95 and 17.78 if the stars align. However, I'm cautious ahead of the recent shipment of weapons from the U.S. to Israel this week. This will add further tension in the Middle East if Israel aggressively pursues the Rafah Region. However, we may remain range-bound below 18.60 to 18.20 in the present macro environment.
Keep in mind that April and May data will show a level of skewness due to loadshedding suspension ahead of the elections.
USDZAR sweeps and shiftsWe have 4h liquidity sweep, shifted bullish and initially made a minor sweep to mitigate the breaker block, followed by the first break to the upside then after an internal sweep to mitigate the order block… looking for a pullback to the unmitigated order block then a hike to the buy side liquidity…
USDZAR BULLISH TREND WILL CONTINUOUS TO 20.00 HI FRIENDS!!
As we can see this USDZAR again near at support zone we have good chance to join the rally
as we can see US $ is holding support and all major pairs. this pair is also holding a strong support and trading above a uptrend line zone, so our risk and reward ratio is fantastic on this pair let's see what markets brings its just a trade idea share Ur thoughts with us it helps many other Traders.
STAYTUNED!
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USDZAR | Weekly | UpdateLooking at USDZAR on our weekly chart we can notice that USDZAR has been failing to break to the downside as has been respecting our previously outlined levels. To elaborate further we can take note of the fact that USDZAR’s failure to break through our 17.50xxx Psychological level confirmed a new higher low on the pair after which it started rallying back up and is now trading above our 19.0xxxx price point; we can also take note of the fact that after USDZAR failed to break our 17.50xxx level creating a new higher low it gave us the opportunity to identify the formation of that bullish channel within our already existing long term bullish trend.
Now looking to the right on USDZAR we can notice the possibility of it creating a new all time high between our 20.50xxx and 21.50xxx respective levels and considering the current economic climate in South Africa and the upcoming elections causing further instability in the ZAR so we could possibly see the USDZAR head towards these levels as we head into 2024.
BUY USDZARUSDZAR saw a strong surge of bearish movement this past week, which almost had me thinking price would crash to 17 points. Let us keep in mind that the overall trend for this pair is bullish. Here we observe that price is rejecting local support 18.4. H4 structure is not clear at the moment but from my experience, I predict a bullish flag which will break out using a double bottom to the upside 21+ points. For now, let us take profit at local resistance 18.7.
USDZAR TRADE IDEA: Long (24/07/2023)USDZAR is looking to reverse. It has clearly slowed its downwards movement and is looking to reverse up top to potentially continue its down movement. This was signified through its break of structure on the 4H chart.
As shown on the 15 minute chart it has broken structure. The only worrying part is that it is returning back to break even. However this has the potential of a 7RR trade.
NOTE: This is not financial advice, please do your own research and be aware that any risks are being taken solely by you, the individual.
USDZAR | Weekly | UpdateUSDZAR | Weekly
Looking to the left on USDZAR based on my initial analysis, we notice that we he had a target for USDZAR at 21.2xxxx - 21.5xxxx after which we saw USDZAR rally all the way up to 19.93xxx creating a new high for the USDZAR we saw it fail to break above our 20.xxxxx psychological level. After failing to break above the 20.xxxxx level we noticed the ZAR “try” to recover it’s losses against the USD creating or current base as after falling from around 19.93xxx we can see the USDZAR finding support at 18.08xxx and bouncing up from there and currently trading above our 18.5xxxx Psychological level at 18.7xxxx.
Looking to the right, if USDZAR fails to push down and break our support at 18.08xxx - 17.74xxx we can consider that area as our new base and we can expect the USDZAR to push further up and may potentially break our 20.xxxxx psychological level while still expecting it to head up to 21.2xxxx - 21.5xxxx.
UPDATE USDZAR hit my target price unfortunately at R19.80 - WaitSince the USD/ZAR hit my target price at R19.80. It's been retracting a bit.
It weakened fast and furious. And now we can expect a bit of a retracement before the USD continues to strengthen.
I truly hope the USD/ZAR continues to weaken so the rand can strengthen more...
It's embarrassing seeing the rand at levels above R19 in the US, UK, Swiss etc...
Come one South Africa!
USD/ZAR - Tentative Hello
with the Feds rate decision in play we see that the Rand is getting stronger. Going down to 4hr Support level.
One of two things could happen here
1. The rand could reach up again to close the future value Gaps noted on the 1hr timeframe. This will suggest that the dollar will recover. We will have to monitor the movement in this zone.
2. We could see a sharper movement downwards breaking through the 4hr support zone. This will give us good momentum for sell positions and we will move into the 18.0000 zone.
At this current moment my bias is more centered around bullish momentum as noted on the 4hr TF we had strong bearish momentum.
Remember price must correctly deliver both sides before we reach for any liquidity
Stay Safe
USD/ZAR target hit at R18.48 & we have another dreadful target It pains me to say our USD/ZAR trade hit the take profit level at R18.48 and now it looks like further upside for the USD is on the way.
Another Cup and Handle has formed, which has broken above the neckline.
And if we place the stop loss below the handle, we get the next target at R19.71.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target R19.71
With interest rates on the rise in America after Daddy Powell mentioned more upside to come, meanse investors will continue to invest in the US dollar with high income yielding assets like Bonds, Money Markets and High interest savings rates options.
As long as interest rates (or the fear of them) continue up, we will continue to see US dollar strength which will bring down many other exotic currencies like the rand.
South African Rand looking horrid target to R18.40Falling Wedge formed on USD/ZAR
7>21>200 -BUllish
RSI >50
With the Jobs data coming out much better than expected, and with the rising interest rates - this seems to have a positive effect on the US dollar as investors are putting their money in it.
The economy is clearly booming and earnings are coming out better than expected.
My first target for the USD/ZAR is R18.40