Get started

Usdzaranalysis

BREAKING: #USDZAR to R24 per US Dollar by 2030The days of gloom lie ahead for the South African economy. Very optimistic for a South African citizen right....? NAH! Let me begin with a disclaimer: firstly I am a proud South African citizen and secondly I'm a Market Technician by profession. My job as a Technical Analyst is to study financial instruments or charts using time tested principles to deduce an understanding of the behavioral patterns of any market historically. I have no choice but to remain objective and true to the laws and principles of my profession because the market doesn't care about how I feel about my country. I want my country to prosper, I want to see the currency strengthen over the years, and perhaps sometimes it will take a simple chart like this that may reach some senior citizens and guide them to make different decisions for a better and stronger economy. Now let's begin. USDZAR is currently trading in dangerous territory below the R18 resistance. The good news is that the bears are at the advantage to defend the R18 price to drive the downward trajectory agenda. The defense of the R18 resistance may see a 20% gain in the South African Rand to around R14 to the US Dollar and failure to defend the R18 price may see the Rand tumble a staggering 33% to R24. Ideally I am expecting a medium term pull back of 20% gains for the Rand to the March 2011 trendline support. The March 2011 support is very dangerous and may set the market on rocket speed to a multi-year depreciation of the Rand of 70% loss against the US Dollar to R24. We should see these movements happen within the decade by 2030. The push to defend the R18 price as well as the 20% gains to R14 in the medium term gives South Africa a fighting chance against the Goliath because it presents the opportunity to even break the March 2011 support for further gains. This is the scenario that I hope to see fulfilled but only time will tell.
by SilasMorerwa
Potential Short-Term Long for USDZAR?blI have denoted the two movements I believe are possible given the technical analysis I have conducted with two different coloured sets of arrows. The purple arrows denote the possibility of price making a more immediate rebound from the lower bound of the daily pennant against which it currently has support, possibly to the upper bound of the 4H channel or the upper bound of the daily pennant, the yellow arrows denote the possibility of a short term break of the daily pennant to the 4H support zone, prior to re entry of the daily pennant. Both possibilities fall in line with the bullish price trend associated with the lower bound of the daily pennant. I will be trading this on the 1H should the black countertrend line I have drawn in be broken correctly. Note has to be made of the MPC meeting this week. I am only trading this pair on the 1H given the unpredictability of long term movements.
Long
by Papache
Potential Short-Term Short for USDZAR?I believe we are still trading within the bounds of the daily pennant that formed over the last several weeks. Visible on the chart is the 4H descending Channel I have drawn in as well as the 1H descending channel I have drawn in both of which are currently respected, both falling in line with the daily pennant formation. The purple and orange arrows denote the movements I believe are possible given my technical analysis. Should the red countertrend line I have drawn in be broken correctly I will potentially take a short term short position on the 1H. Beware taking a long term short, given the rate cut that could be coming this week bullish movement is possible should it not already be priced in as yet.
Short
by Papache
Potential Short-Term Long/Short for USDZARI have denoted the two movements I believe are probable given the technical analysis I have done with two different coloured sets of arrows. The purple arrows denote the movement I believe will take place if the H4 trendline I have drawn in is not correctly broken, in that case I believe price will move to the lower bound of H4 channel before making a bullish price movement. The yellow arrows denote the movement I believe will take place if the H4 trendline is correctly broken, after which I believe the H1 channel I have drawn in will continue to be respected to the upper bound of the H4 channel before making a bearish price movement. Both of these expected outcomes fall in line with the USDZAR's short term bearish trend. I'm trading the USDZAR strictly on the H1 given the unpredictable nature of its longer term movements. Let me know if you agree/disagree.
by Papache
1
USDZAR SHORT TERM THEORY...A BIT OF WAVING & TECH ANALYSISHi Traders! I hope everyone is doing great. We as speculative traders have stayed in the same type of zone because we are naturally in lock-down with these 2 screens in from of us. Simply meaning not much has changed in my trading world. Except for everyone who was used to specific bias ideas and got shifted when the market took a dive early this year. Nonetheless here is an idea of USDZAR short term concept. See how it fits into your idea. I missed the buy, but with patience and tracking I should be able to catch the opposite today or tomorrow. Till next time, FIBZ
by fibznwavez
USDZAR Bullish or Bearish???In my previous analyses I have provided reasons as to why I considered the USDZAR bullish for the medium to long term but it seems for the short term at least we may be seeing bearish price movements. I believe we're seeing this because of weakening of the USD and in part due to overbought levels on the daily time frame, meaning its a necessary pull back if we are to see good momentum going forward in terms of bullish action, also if you refer to the gann fan drawn in that I had also mentioned in my previous analyses you'll see we currently rest on the 3/1 ratio line which I spoke about earlier last week when price broke through the very respected 2/1 ratio line. I did not want to rely too heavily on the fan, however it does coincide with previous support + the ascending wedge and was respected for quite some time, and as such it's my belief that if price is to move in a bullish direction it's going to happen sooner rather than later (2 days left till May ).
Long
by Papache
1
Are We Still Bullish On The USDZAR???Nothing that has happened since the beginning of the week has deviated to the extent required for me to change my personal opinion of this pair, in my view it is still bullish and in line with the overall trend, if your mind is changing based on the sporadic price action around these levels, ask yourself why you're actually bullish on this pair, and if bearish why you're actually bearish on this pair. I've already read the headlines but what does the economic stimulus package actually mean for the ZAR, yes the world wants the USD to be reigned back but when? Let me know what you think.
Long
by Papache
USDZAR Medium Term Long Starting to Emerge?The resistance I've previously mentioned in my analysis has been broken, not decisively, however it's an important time to be watching what price does next. I personally see price retesting the support before it continues on to the next resistance as I've illustrated, I would advise waiting for the retest before getting into a long position as it would mitigate some of the risk should we fall back below the support. Check out my linked ideas to see what I've had to say about the USDZAR for the coming two weeks. Let me know your opinion and if you agree/disagree.
Long
by Papache
13