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3 big drops since BTCUSD ATH and the next move is going to ...Given that: For the time being, Bitcoin (BTC) is well correlated with traditional markets. What this chart shows me: Bitcornz on the Weekly TF. 3 major drops since ATH. All the bullish rallies and comebacks to date have yet to really break free of the downtrend, however it's above it longer now the previous times. it's like watching an asset dance on a knife edge for as long as it can before it makes the next move either way. How The Biggest Whale Affects Everything: As long as the Fed keeps buying the FAANG bonds and basically p0wning the market / transforming the USA into more like the USSA .. central Kontrol over everything. ... well as long as the charade lasts, trads keep up the PAMP and bitty may ride along, for now, anyway. The Great Comparison: However if you look at the markets compared to right before the Great Depression ... Well ... it basically looked a lot like this. See DJI for example. Highly overvalued stocks being propped up by artificial cash infusions in to the markets. and there was a signal dump and recovery and then shortly after there was the big drop. It looks an awful lot like that now, too. of course systems are "stronger" now but still ... the system is also so much bigger .. the damage from any crash now or in an even larger, more centrally controlled future, will be proportionally bigger as well, in all likelihood. WDUT?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by stepstones
S&P Going for double top - [long term short]on the Indice trading side we are not selling nor buying right now We can see the great imbalance from the demand zone - which is weak but we have a strong supply here so we can definitely see great potential for the supply to sell off. Note: only if price shows a rejection and imbalance then we will execute on the daily timeframe. Using the supply and demand strategy. we can see a great opportunity ahead using double top formation. The imbalance is key for our trading here and the higher timeframes do not show sells as yet. ofcourse conduct your own top down analysis to buy and sell - different time frames show different scenarios, but we focus on the long term journey here. If you like our work, please leave a like and comment. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
2
S&P 500 Elliot Wave Correction Hello all, I do not typically do any analytical content out side of cryptocurrency, but with the state of the markets and everything happening I thought I would take a look. This analysis is just a simple thought process so do not trade based off this. S&P 500 in Elliot Wave Correction. This seems to be a possibility. After the unfortunate spike in the confirmed cased of Covid19, the market took a hard hit, again. This new wave of cases is possibly linked to the increased crowds, parties, and gatherings for memorial day a couple weeks ago. If this is the case, I have reason to believe that it is just the beginning of the confirmed case increase. I say this because very recently there has been a large amount of protesting in the states, millions of people gathering together. I will not comment on that of course, but I will say that it is the perfect storm. It may have just helped spread the virus even more than ever before. It is unfortunate as these predictions on markets are not just about the value of something, but it is a reflection of how bad things are. So keep that in mind. I hope this was helpful. Stay safe all, trade safe, and stay healthy. Thanks for reading. - Max K.
SP:SPX
by MaxKoke
5
Gold ShortAfter retesting 1709.73 and possibly going farther to 1718.11, which is a well respected pivot point of resistance, it might go down following its trend. we are seeing a lower high lower low pattern as well in the 1 hour timeframe. after reaching the said pivot points of resistance, we could very well expect the price to go back to 1699.89 which is a possible first level of support then probably will go back to the previous week low of 1681.55. possible manipulative moves are to be expected during the early moments of the new york session so be careful as well. also the us economy is going up due to the fact that the stocks in the us are rallying high and recovering from the previous months loses. so potential short entry is to be expected after several minutes of the new york open.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Elijah007
Micrsoft - long term buys. Fresh demand allowing to go long, due to a weak level Looking to break all time highs. once it does, we will look for a sell entry once we have confirmation of a strong supply. If a risk off scenario occurs, go short, with another opportunity to long again. we have a very strong level to buy from. Coronavirus effect - meaning the previous high needed a fresh touch in order for long positions. Fundamentals - these are great but we do not look at these much. create its first data centre region in Italy under a $1.5 billion investment plan as the U.S. company expands its cloud computing services, with partnership of TIM telecom italia mobile.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by LupaCapital
Waiting for the stark reality of economy to be exposed!Op-ed: The charts show global stocks could retest their March lows later this year www.cnbc.com Key points: From a technical analysis perspective , global stock indexes in March wiped out critical long-term support factors pertaining to the entire multiyear rallies since the conclusion of the global financial crisis bear markets, that have driven many stock indexes to all-time highs. From our technical perspective, although the short-term outlook into June remains for further upside, we do not see most of the major benchmarks challenging the current 2020 cycle highs. Given that markets remain contained below the peaks from the first quarter of 2020 at the end of the second quarter and taking into consideration the above-mentioned damage inflicted to the long-term charts, the threat in the next two quarters is for a roll back down lower into the very wide ranges established by the first-quarter sell-offs. From a macroeconomic perspective , a more negative outlook could be driven by the lifting of lockdowns allowing for the removal of fiscal accommodation by governments, which could expose the stark reality of a post-pandemic global economy, damaged by the measures taken during global lockdowns. Furthermore, there is also the risk of a second wave of coronavirus cases and deaths as lockdowns are eased, potentially seeing lockdown measures reinstated. Finally, the growing resumption of tensions between China the U.S. (as well as other nations), could lead to a renewal of the 2019 trade war. With most commentators agreeing that the economic recovery is likely to be U-shaped at best or even L-shaped at worst, the likelihood of a V-shaped recovery by the global economy seems unlikely, which is likely going to be needed to continue the aggressive V-shaped rebound in stock indexes. In summary then, although the short/intermediate-term outlook remains for renewed upside for the major global stock averages into June, we do not see a resumption of intermediate or longer-term bull trends. Rather, markets could likely be contained within the broader ranges defined by the first-quarter 2020 bear markets, or possibly even into the second half of 2020 to retest the March 2020 bear move lows.
SP:SPXShort
by krisu619
3
Witnessing a bubble created by people's unrealistic expectationsA lot of inexperienced newbie investors are piling up the market yet the reality of the economic atmosphere is not robust at all. A lot of companies are filing for bankruptcy, consumption, production, and employment are extremely low (and not expected to recover fast). As small, inexperienced investors are rushing into the market, the big institutions are more aware and cautious of what is happening at the moment. The prices are at an unsustainable level and we are living a bubble that is created by people's unrealistic positive expectations. ***** Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller says the stock market's risk-reward is the worst he's ever seen — and downplays the Fed's ability to rescue the economy He also worries that a V-shaped recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is "a fantasy." markets.businessinsider.com ***** Young investors pile into stocks, seeing ‘generational-buying moment’ instead of risk The major online brokers — Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Etrade and Robinhood — saw new accounts grow as much as 170% in the first quarter, when stocks experienced the fastest bear market and the worst first quarter in history. “Traders here are ‘buying the dip’ in a lot of names with questionable fundamentals now, i.e. airlines, highly volatile stocks, low in recent price momentum, and ones with that have recently (in the last 3 months) had lottery ticket like upside payoffs occur,” added Krause. “Robinhood investors are making all the classic mistakes in the short term. May work for today’s market, but not in the long-run if repeated.” www.cnbc.com ***** Besides what's mentioned above additional factors like the possibility for a second wave of infections, U.S.–China tensions, and many more are currently being bypassed by the market.
SP:SPXShort
by krisu619
3
S&P & DJI Showing Strong P ActionBoth S&P and Dow creeping up to the mid point of their respective inner upward channels and flexing their strength. These markets aren’t out of the woods just yet and with Q2 yet to close out with one more month to go, will we see these markets pop up to the previous highs and safety point or trickle back down like mid Feb/march’s P action. A break of 2723.3 on the S&P and 22931.5 on the DJI I’ll be very bearish, however for the time being strength is being shown. The following still applies, just updated overview charts: S&P: If P action closes below the orange line at 2723.3 attention will turn more bearish and watch for market to fall to 2460.2. In this instance will reassess market dynamics as it may bounce in this range or continue to fall Dow: The same flows for Dow Jones with P action closes below the orange line at 22931.5 attention will turn more bearish and watch for market to fall to 20842.4. In this instance will reassess market dynamics as it may bounce in this range or continue to fall.
TVC:SPX
by LandenInternational
DJI end of the upwards momentum & signals for an explosive move!Squeeze Momentum Indicator implies that the upwards retracement after the bottoms has come to an end. However, it has not given a clear signal of the direction of the next momentum in the market. By combining this information with the Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) we can see that the upwards trend is really losing its vitality. Besides this the occurring negative divergence with the price gives a bearish signal that may signal a major negative price move. However, you should notice: Divergence isn't to be relied on exclusively, as it doesn't provide timely trade signals. Divergence can last a long time without a price reversal occurring. About the Squeeze Momentum Indicator This is a derivative of John Carter's "TTM Squeeze" volatility indicator, as discussed in his book "Mastering the Trade" (chapter 11). Black crosses on the midline show that the market just entered a squeeze ( Bollinger Bands are with in Keltner Channel). This signifies low volatility, market preparing itself for an explosive move (up or down). Gray crosses signify "Squeeze release". About the Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) VFI, introduced by Markos Katsanos, is based on the popular On Balance Volume (OBV) but with three very important modifications: Unlike the OBV, indicator values are no longer meaningless. Positive readings are bullish and negative bearish. The calculation is based on the day's median (typical price) instead of the closing price. A volatility threshold takes into account minimal price changes and another threshold eliminates excessive volume.
DJ:DJIShort
by krisu619
3
CNBC: "BABA stock could forecast the global economy's next move"CNBC news: www.cnbc.com One Chinese stock could forecast the global economy’s next move. Key points: Alibaba “stock started rolling over in very early January before the Chinese stock market did and certainly before the global economy started to slow down. So in other words, its weakness was a good leading indicator to tell us that the coronavirus was going to have a bigger impact than a lot of people thought,” Maley said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” Alibaba stock executed a double top pattern before the first crash and is now heading replicate the pattern again. I personally wouldn't take this as any kind of clear sign as I'm doubtful of how good of a leading indicator Alibaba stock is for the global and U.S. economy. However it's interesting to wait and see how things play out for both, the S&P 500 and Alibaba.
NYSE:BABA
by krisu619
US Stock market approaching CRITICAL area i learned a big lesson from R. N. Elliott the founder of wave principle- impulses consumes more price rather than time and corrections consumes time rather than price. i a market drops quickly and rises slow you should consider it as a downtrend and vice versa. so to speak one may come up with the question that US stock market dropped fast in the past 10 years and rose slowely why it is also in an uptrend? to answer this critical question i should say that us central bank is offsetting us economy and for doing so they will answer tomorrow not today but they will be responsible for the actions. the economy should cool down inflation and deflation should co-exist one without another is devastating. we have inflation without deflation the Monetary base is always rising interest rate is close to a point where there is chance to be negative. we are experiencing biggest money printing in the history (by absolute size not relative) they are trying to keep economy booming forever but that's not the solution we should let economy to be free and do its cycles as it is necessary. after all is think this economy is in a downtrend since 2008 but it is off-setted. this fact that a market falls really fast is a sign of less interest to hold and less orders below the price. sell order is always ready to take down this market but buy orders are weak. the value of market is a fantasy made by us central bank and it is going to be someday in the road of reality. i measured the time from the all time high to the recent march low at 2187 and i noticed that we are reaching to a time ressistance of 1.618 times from top to bottom and also 0.618 retracement of the massive downtrend. also it appears to be forming a little double top formation. if market drops below 2790 level it will get harder for the economy to recover any time soon keep an eye on 13th of may (tomorrow) and the price of 2933. it may be the local top. it will affect cryptos as well. because bitcoin and US500 are correlated with the correalation value of 0.8 which indicates a great positive correlation. bitcoin will be in danger.
SP:SPXShort
by farzinsabbagh
4
USOIL: #stayhome effect Oil prices have dropped more than 50% in March (yearly performance is around-62,1%). Is it the end or are we going to see more downside movement? Let's assume this is another opportunity for joining bears, based on technical analysis (thoughts) you can see on the chart. How much lower can the price go? Can it reach the lows of 1999? My answer is: why not? Most of developed countries are on quarantine #stayhome and the supply wasn't cut by OPEC. The major US indices, including DJI, S&P500 and Nasdaq, have fallen in the following order: 35%, 30% and 25%. While different sectors and industries in the US have the following yearly performance so far: 1. Energy minerals sector (931,2B MKT CAP): -58,04%, out of which e.g.: -Coal Industry: -69,17% -Oil & Gas production Industry: -62,67% -Integrated oil Industry: -57,05% -Oil Refining/Marketing: - 55,7% 2. Industrial Services Sector (515,96B MKT CAP): -36,09%, out of which e.g.: -Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry: -60,01% -Oil&Gas Pipelines Industry: -42,93% 3. Process Industries Sector (681,34B MKT CAP):-27,36%, out of which e.g.: -Pulp&Paper Industry: -50,05% -Chemicals: Major Diversified Industry: -49,87% -Agricultural Commodities/Milling: -41,45% 4. Non-Energy Minerals Sector (476,43B MKT CAP): -25,73%, out of which e.g.: -Steel Industry: -48,32% -Other Metals/Minerals: -40,16% -Aluminium: -39,87% 5. Transportation sector (569,48B MKT CAP): -23,84%, out of which e.g.: -Airlines industy: -49,2% 6. Finance sector (6038,64B MKT CAP): -23,12%, out of which e.g.: -Life/Health Insurance Industry: -37,69% -Real Estate Development Industry: -37,64% -Financial Conglomerates Industry: -34,83% -Major Banks Industry: -31,13% 7. Consumer Services sector (1481,09B MKT CAP): -21,53%, out of which e.g.: -Hotels/Resorts/Cruise Lines Industry: -43,78% -Casinos/Gaming Industry: -34,22% 8. Producer Manufacturing sector (1030,45B MKT CAP): -21,02%, out of which e.g.: -Auto Parts: OEM Industry: -34.64% -Metal Fabrication Industry: -33,09% -Industrial Conglomerates Industry: -31,72% It's quite interesting when and how these industries will be able to recover, but I am quite sure it's a great opportunity to start analyzing particular companies and building portfolio with these businesses. This is going to be my next step... // I would very much appreciate if you would support my work by hitting like.) Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
FX:USOILEducation
by GIgor_021
EUR/USD vs DXYHi Guys, here a comparison mirroring EUR/USD vs DXY . Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
by cozzamara
1
DXY vs EUR/USDHi Guys, here a comparison mirroring DXY vs EUR/USD. Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
TVC:DXY
by cozzamara
Strange last week, the OPEC decision & near futureThe reasons for the markets getting out of “hibernation” are an active news background interspersed with the news. Recall, it was launched by Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel from Argentina and Brazil and at the same time accuse these countries of currency manipulation. What was perceived by us as an expansion of the trade war and a possible beginning of the currency war. Well, the week ended with the publication of statistics on the US labour market, as well as the completion of the OPEC meeting. Let's start with statistics on the US labour market. Honestly, it surprised us. The numbers came out abnormally high for the current reality of the US economy (+ 266K with a forecast + 180K). Also, the unemployment rate fell to its record low marks (3.5%). The growth of the dollar against the backdrop of such excellent data was logical. But, given the anomalous nature of the given data, we would not be in a hurry to conclude. At least one more confirmation is needed that + 266K is not a coincidence, but a pattern. So on Monday, we will rely on local profit-taking in the dollar after Friday's growth, and therefore we will look for points for its sales. Note that on Friday our recommendation for news trading in the USDCAD worked out perfectly: excellent US data overlapped with bad figures on the Canadian labour market, as a result, the USDCAD soared by 100 points. Perhaps the most important event in terms of the consequences of the past week was OPEC’s decision to further reduce oil production from 1.2 million to 1.7 million from January 1, 2020. So, we can talk about the OPEC + agreement №3 (recall, the first one, provided for a reduction of 1.8 million barrels, the second one 1.2 million barrels per day). At the same time, Saudi Arabia made an unexpected statement of readiness on its part to further reduce production by another 400 thousand b / d. That is, the total reduction may reach 2.1 million barrels. This is the highest reduction since the cartel's attempts to stabilize the situation in the oil market. Despite the rather modest oil growth on Friday, such an outcome of the OPEC meeting is a very strong bullish signal. So this week, we will look for points for oil purchases. It would seem that after such a busy week the markets need a break, but you should not count on it. This week promises to be even more volatile. Key events are the announcement of the Fed decision on monetary policy parameters in the US, the ECB in the Eurozone, as well as elections in the UK. And although both events seem relatively predictable, there is enough time for surprises. How to make money on each of this news we will write a bit later. As for our positions, we do not see any reason to change our basic strategy (except oil). Therefore, we will continue to buy safe-haven assets (gold is simply perfectly substituted), sell the dollar, and this week we will actively build up a long position on the pound - the victory of conservatives in the UK parliamentary elections will have to hit the pound higher. we will buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1