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THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL UPDATEEnd of day update from us here at KOG: The path has worked quite well so far with price testing the high, adhering to KOG's bias for the day and week and respecting the red boxes. We've managed to stay the right way and capture most of the move down completing nearly all the bias level targets on the KOG Report. So, what now? We have major support below at the 2650-55 region with slight extension in to 2645. If this level is attacked and defended in the coming sessions we should get a move back upside into the initial levels of 2675 and above that 2680-5. We do need to see a clean reversal for this to happen so let's be patient if you're looking to go long. Those who followed and are short, we suggested protecting and taking partials along the way while enjoying the move. For now, planned and executed, Excalibur and the red boxes performing well. Let's see what tomorrow's news brings. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
TRUMP is the 47th President! Is this bullish for the markets?Donald Trump is the new (47th) President of the United States, coming into office for his 2nd time. The practical question on the investor's mind is of course how will the stock markets react? Even though there is no definitive way to approach this, the fact that Trump will resume power for a 2nd term, gives us a historic data set to have grounds for comparison. Fundamentally anything can be discussed on policies and strategies etc but technically the picture is more objective. As you can see on this Dow Jones (DJI) chart displayed on the 1W time-frame, Trump's 1st Presidential win was on November 08 2016. At that time, the market was trading within a Channel Up that started after a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) double test on January 19 and February 08 2016. Right before the Elections, the index experienced a natural 'Pre-election volatility' phase. The picture during the current election period isn't very different from 2016. As you can see, Dow started a Channel Up pattern after a 1W MA200 test and half-way through the year started to experience the usual 'Pre-election volatility' phase. During that time both in 2024 and 2016, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting and stayed intact. Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are similar from the time the Channel Up started until the elections. So naturally you are asking what does that mean for us moving forward? Well after the November 08 2016 elections and Trump's 1st win, Dow started to rise aggressively immediately and by March 2017 it almost reached the patterns top (Higher Highs trend-line) before the new medium-term relief pull-back. The post-election Bull Phase was concluded in January 2018, upon completing a +71% rise from the Channel's bottom and 7.0 Fibonacci extension from the volatility phase. So if symmetry acts its part, we may see 47000 by March 2025 and 55000 (+71% from the October 2023 bottom) by the end of 2025. Is this projection definitive? Of course not, nothing is 'absolute' in investing/ trading. But history has shown that the stock market has reacted more than positively after the U.S. elections, particularly in the case of a Trump win. What do you think? Will Trump's 2nd term be bullish? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
1
Hedging Price Risk in Silver in a Pivotal Week This is a big week for financial markets, a long-anticipated election in the US is likely to have widely varying impacts across major asset classes. Safe haven assets such as silver stand to benefit from the uncertainty. There is also an FOMC meeting scheduled on 7/Nov (Thu) where the Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. A lower rate environment also serves as tailwind for silver. Finally, the Chinese parliament is expected to announce details of fiscal stimulus on 8/Nov (Fri). Fiscal stimulus in China also stands to benefit silver through higher investment demand as well as industrial demand. In what should fundamentally be a strong week for silver, prices have entered the week on a bearish note following a 3.4% decline last week. While fundamental outlook for Silver remains bullish, this eventful week may drive unwanted volatility. Indeed markets are expecting large moves in silver prices with silver options IV near a 1-year high. Source: CME Group CVOL Investors can strategically deploy CME silver weekly options along with a long position in silver to capitalize on the fundamental increase while remaining protected against volatility. BULLISH FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK FOR SILVER Mint Finance covered some of silver’s bullish fundamental drivers in a previous paper . In brief, robust growth from the photovoltaic (PV) sector is driving high demand. PV installations are surging, with global solar installations up 29% year-over-year, driven by aggressive climate policies and energy transition goals. This increase has directly boosted silver consumption, essential for PV production. At the same time, silver markets have stayed in a supply deficit for the past four years. Silver miners have struggled to keep pace with the rapidly increasing industrial demand. China’s massive stimulus package—its largest since the pandemic—also plays a crucial role, freeing up liquidity to revitalize its struggling economy. This stimulus supports sectors like PV and electronics, key industries for silver usage, while bolstering consumer confidence, which translates into heightened demand for silver in electronics and jewellery. Investment demand for silver has started to pick up pace. Since July, U.S.-listed silver ETFs have seen over $942 million in inflows, particularly after the Fed’s rate cuts, which makes non-yielding assets like silver more attractive. HIGHER SILVER JEWELLERY DEMAND IN INDIA The recent festival season in India saw high demand for silver as buyers opted for it over gold. Silver sales by volume are expected to have increased 30-35% YoY while gold sales fell by 15% according to data from the Indian Bullion & Jewellers Association. Rising investor interest in silver is partly due to its relative affordability compared to gold, which is trading at an all-time high. While high gold prices are dampening demand, especially for physical gold and jewellery, silver remains more accessible, supporting increased investment. Rising investment demand, particularly for jewellery, risks pushing silver further into deficit. While jewellery demand for silver had been modest in recent years, 2022 saw a significant increase. According to the Silver Institute, jewellery demand is projected to grow by 4% in 2024 (but below 2022 levels), with actual demand potentially exceeding this due to the strong seasonal trend. Increased demand would further tighten silver supplies, likely driving prices higher over the next year. UPCOMING FOMC MEETING AND CHINA STIMULUS TO DRIVE SENTIMENT China’s parliament has started it five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. A substantial fiscal stimulus plan is likely to support silver prices. Recent economic data from China has also shown a recovering industrial sector as China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. In case the trend continues, stronger industrial demand also stands to push silver prices higher. SILVER IN THE MIDST OF CORRECTION DURING UPTREND Silver continued its bullish momentum from September into October but has corrected sharply over the past week. During the rally earlier this year, when silver prices corrected, they were able to find support at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. With Silver presently just above the 38.2% level, it may find support here. Silver’s performance in the past two months has closely aligned with monthly pivot points. In both September and October, prices tested these pivot levels before moving higher. However, recent tests have shown smaller deviations from the pivot compared to prior months, suggesting that volatility could push prices slightly lower during this month’s test. There is strong reason to believe that the general bullish trend is likely to continue into next year. According to a poll at the LBMA precious metal conference, delegates expect silver prices to rise to USD 45/oz over 2025, reflecting a 37% increase from present levels. Precious metal analysts were highly optimistic about silver, stating that higher industrial demand combined with continued supply deficit was likely to drive strong gains. SEASONALITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE GAINS IN NOVEMBER Silver prices closed out October with a 4.6% increase but are currently nearly flat for November. Historically, November has been a mixed month for silver, with an average price increase of 1.88% since 2000, though with high standard deviation. Notably, only 42% of Novembers have shown positive gains. Despite this variability, past performance shows periods where silver either consistently declined or consistently rallied over multiple Novembers. Over the last two years, November has seen significant growth in silver prices; if this recent trend persists, silver could experience strong gains this month. SILVER’S PERFORMANCE AROUND ELECTIONS Certain safe haven and risk assets (gold, silver, BTC) stand to benefit from a Trump presidency. Historically, elections have impacted silver prices in varying ways. Following the Trump victory, silver stands to benefit. Looking at silver’s historical performance in the two weeks following elections since 1980, prices increased by an average of 0.7% when a Republican replaced a Democrat president. The Democrat-to-Republican shift has led to price rallies in two-thirds of cases. SILVER’S PERFORMANCE AROUND FOMC MEETINGS As mentioned, lower rates have a positive impact on non-yielding investment assets such as silver while also boosting industrial demand during periods with loose monetary policy. During the Fed easing cycles in 2001, 2007, and 2019, silver reacted positively to Fed rate cuts in 68% of cases (performance measured 1 week after FOMC meeting with monetary easing) with an average of 0.9% appreciation on the CME Silver front month contract. Source: CME FedWatch CME FedWatch tool is suggesting that a 25-basis point rate cut is most likely at the upcoming meeting on 7/Nov with a probability of 98%. As the outcome is largely anticipated, the impact of the meeting on silver prices may be minimal. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Silver remains bullish with strong fundamental drivers including the rapid growth in the PV industry and strong investment demand. This week, several major events are expected to drive significant volatility in the silver market. While these events are generally anticipated to boost silver demand, prices may remain unstable and could see short-term declines. Silver is currently trading near its support levels, but increased event-driven volatility this week could lead to significant price swings. In late October, for example, silver briefly surged nearly 4% above usual resistance levels during short bursts of volatility. Although trading volume remained concentrated near the support level, the risk of sudden, sharp moves remains. This could result in a long silver position being prematurely closed out. With a long position in silver futures at risk from near-term event risks, investors can deploy CME weekly options to hedge a long position from near-term volatility which increases tail risk. In the following hypothetical trade setup, investors can combine a long position in CME micro silver futures expiring in December (SILZ4) at an entry of 32 with a protective put using CME silver weekly options expiring on 8/Nov (Fri) (SO2X4) at a strike level of 31 (delta 20, premium of 0.087/oz or USD 435) offers a compelling trade setup while remaining hedged against near-term volatility. Using a delta-20 put option keeps the position fully delta-hedged for the week, as the delta of the long micro silver position aligns with the option’s delta at 20. Since each micro silver contract is one-fifth the size of a full contract, this setup effectively maintains the hedge. In case prices dip below 30.64 by Friday due to volatility from the election, FOMC meeting, and China parliamentary meeting, the put option would offset any losses from the futures leg. In the later part of the month, the outlook for silver is likely to be bullish given the fundamental factors highlighted above, in case prices rise, the position would become profitable above 32.44, offsetting the premium paid for the short-term option. The scenarios in which the position loses: 1) In case prices remain between 30.64 and 32.44 2) In case prices fall below 30.64 following the put option expiry on 8/Nov The scenarios in which the position profits: 1) In case prices fall below 30.64 before the put option expiry on 8/Nov 2) In case prices rise above 32.44 at any point It should be noted that it would be prudent to set a stop loss on the long futures position following options expiry at 31 to minimize losses in case of a decline after options expiry. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Bitcoin will be the winner of the US electionsAn interesting relationship can be observed between #Bitcoin 's past halving cycles and the US presidential elections. #Halving is generally known as an event that starts an uptrend by reducing the supply of $BTC. It is known that immediately after the US presidential elections, there was a general relief in the markets and as the uncertainty disappeared, investors turned to riskier assets. In this case, the removal of uncertainty in the post-election period, regardless of the candidates, will create relief in the market. With the effect of this relief, investors will turn to higher risk assets, triggering a bull run process. An asset with limited supply, such as Bitcoin, will also be positively affected by this process.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by EtherNasyonaL
What happens to Bitcoin after the U.S. election?The D-Day for U.S. elections is here, and the short-term impact of the outcome on Bitcoin (BTC) could be big. According to the latest Bernstein outlook, a Harris win could drag BTC to $50K, while Trump’s victory could rally it to a range between $80K-$90K.  The research and brokerage firm cited Harris’s relatively hawkish stance as the reason for BTC’s $50K target. But if Trump emerges as the winner, the analysts projected that BTC could hit a new ATH, citing the former president’s pro-crypto stance.  Amberdata, a blockchain insights firm, and asset manager Bitwise, echoed the same projection, although with slightly different targets.  According to Amberdata analysts, there could be a $6K-$8K price swing depending on who wins the U.S. elections. This was consistent with recent action by hedge funds for potential bullish outcomes while covering for likely wild BTC price swings.  Based on BTC’s sensitivity to Trump’s odds on Polymarket, Bitwise analysts found BTC could surge 10% if Trump wins. Conversely, BTC could drop by nearly 10% if Harris wins. That said, at press time, Deribit data showed options traders were pricing a 21% chance of BTC hitting $80K by the end of November. When zooming out from the short-term U.S. election noise, BTC’s long-term impact has always been positive in the past three election cycles, with Bernstein projecting $200K by 2025. 
by paul_endeo
US Elections impact on BitcoinHistorically, no matter who wins the elections, Bitcoin wins: - Bitcoin’s supply capped at 21 million coins; - Immutable monetary policy; - While governments will continue to print money; - And expanding government debt; Volatility is only short-term. Here's why: Like Paul Tudor Jones said, "All roads lead to inflation". Cash will always lose money over time BUT assets like stocks, Bitcoin and crypto will go up in value. In the short term, crypto might perform a bit better if Donald Trump wins the elections. He seems that the big crypto corporations (Coinbase, XRP, a16z) donated millions to Trump in exchange for more crypto friendly regulations. In the long term, it doesn't matter who wins the elections. In the long term, Bitcoin and crypto are likely to perform well both under Trump or Harris. Why? Because the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the US M2 money supply is 83%.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
Bitcoin Bull Run Ignites: Eyeing New Highs Ahead of ElectionsOverview: Bitcoin (BTC) has recently demonstrated significant bullish momentum, breaking the $68,900 resistance level. This surge is supported by favorable financial news and the anticipation surrounding the U.S. presidential election scheduled for tomorrow. Key Levels: Entry Point: $68,900 Target 1 (T1): $75,146.69 Target 2 (T2): $84,392.46 Target 3 (T3): $92,059.49 Stop Loss: $66,500 Technical Indicators: Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending upwards, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 65, suggesting room for further upward movement before reaching overbought territory. Volume: Increased trading volume aligns with the recent price surge, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Fundamental Factors: The upcoming U.S. presidential election has heightened market interest in Bitcoin, with both major candidates expressing favorable views towards cryptocurrency regulation. Additionally, significant inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been observed, indicating strong institutional support. Conclusion: The confluence of technical indicators and positive fundamental developments suggests a strong bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Traders should monitor the aforementioned target levels and adjust positions accordingly, keeping an eye on potential resistance as the market reacts to election outcomes. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by insidermike
3
Like it or not, it really is this simple.Some of you may not appreciate this chart, but we have to trade on facts not wishes. Right now (and it pains me to say this as a technical analyst), you can throw all your technicals out the window. The market is trading U.S. election results. That's it. Trump looks to be winning the popular vote by a large margin. Once the results are official and Trump is declared the winner, the rocket ships will fire up, take off, and may leave many traders in the smoke with FOMO. On the other hand, if there enters any doubt whatsoever that Trump will be the next POTUS, down we'll go.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
5
BTC: ATH Imminent? U.S. Election Could Be the Catalyst!Hey everyone! If you’re finding value in this analysis, don’t forget to hit that 👍 and follow for more updates! Welcome to this BTC Update! BTC has broken out of the parallel channel on the daily time frame and is currently hovering near the retest area. The market has been unusually quiet lately—this feels like the calm before the storm, and I’m anticipating a major pump from here. It seems the whole market is waiting on the outcome of the U.S. elections. After the election, I expect BTC to break its ATH, aiming for $90k-$100k by year-end. Invalidation: Daily close below the $64.8k level. What’s your take on BTC’s current price action? Are you spotting this bullish setup too? Share your analysis in the comments, and let’s ride this wave together!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
M6E: Staking an Opinion on the US ElectionCME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) All eyes are on the November 5th U.S. presidential election. The stake can’t be higher. A bad outcome could lead to reshaping the balance of world power, an escalation of the geopolitical crises underway, and disrupting the social stability in the U.S. and beyond. Here on TradingView, I want to address this question: How would the U.S. election impact financial investment? A Lookback from the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election On August 17, 2022, I published “Market Impacts of the US Mid-term Elections, which broke down the possible election outcomes into two categories: • “One-Party Rule”, where Democrats controlled the White House and the Congress • “Divided Government”, where Republicans retook either the House or the Senate and created effective challenges to the Administration’s political agenda I analyzed how each asset class would fare under these two scenarios. My conclusion was that the four mega spending bills passed in the first two years would pump $4 trillion in the U.S. economy and would pop up the stock market. At the time of that story, the S&P 500 stood at 4,264. Last Friday, it settled at 5,808, up 36%. Prediction Markets, Opinion Polls and the DJT Stock With the upcoming election, my main question can be broken down into two: • What asset class would fare well if Trump wins? • Would there be any investment instrument help us express our market view? What if Harris win? The election is a binary option with only two outcomes. We could combine them in one question with Yes or No answer. A No for Trump is equivalent to a Yes to Harris. To start our analysis, we need to assess the winning odds of each candidate. Many data sources exist to help. Each tells a part of the story, but all have their own flaws. In my opinion, the prediction markets are preferrable to opinion polls. Millions of people wager on the election outcome on Polymarket, with the money pool amounting to $2.5 billion. This is a real deal as people put money where their mouth is. Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has 65.1% odds of winning the election, where Harris has a 34.9% chance. How does it work? • If you believe in Trump, you could put down 65 cents for a recreational bet to vote Yes. When he wins, you get $1 back, and if he loses, you lose the bet. • If you are in favor of Harris, you could put down 35 cents to vote No for Trump. You also get $1 back if Harris wins and will say goodbye to 35 cents if she loses. Many readers are not comfortable with an “All or Nothing” trade and may not be allowed to participate in a betting market. Fortunately, there are investment-graded alternatives. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp ( NASDAQ:DJT ) is a publicly traded company listed on the Nasdaq market. Its main owner is Donald J. Trump with an 84% stake, and its main asset is TrueSocial. My hypothesis: DJT stock price shall move up (down) along with the rise (fall) of Trump’s winning odds. With so many unprecedented events happening, we should be able to validate this assumption easily. Let’s look back in the campaign timeline in the past four months, and see how Polymarket and DJT stock price responded to these events: (1) On June 27th, the first presidential debate took place. It’s generally viewed that the current President performed poorly against his opponent. My rating: Positive on Trump • Polymarket: Trump’s odds increase from 59.5% to 67.0% (+7.5%) • DJT: Stock price moved from $25 to $39 (+56%) (2) On July 13th, an attempted assassination on Donald Trump wounded him and killed a bystander in Pennsylvania. Rating: Strong Positive • Polymarket from 59% to 71% (+12%) and DJT from $29 to $41(+41%) (3) On July 24th, President Biden withdrew his presidential candidacy. On August 3rd, Kamala Harris became the Democrats nominee after a roll call to party delegates secured a majority vote. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 62% to 45% (-17%) and DJT from $41 to $21 (-49%) (4) On September 10th, the second presidential debate with Trump and Harris took place. Many viewed that Harris performed better than expected. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 52% to 49% (-3%) and DJT from $18 to $12 (-33%) (5) On October 20th, Trump worked a shift in a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, making fries and handing out food to mobile customers. Rating: Very Positive • Polymarket from 55% to 65% (+10%) and DJT from $20 to $39 (+95%) The above analysis shows that DJT is positively correlated to the Polymarket winning odds. Therefore, we could use DJT as a stock market proxy for Trump’s chance of winning the presidential election on November 5th. For anyone owning a stock brokerage account, he could give his approval to Trump by buying DJT. Harris became presidential nominee in less than 3 months, and there isn’t a stock symbol closely linked to her. Therefore, for anyone leaning towards her, he could deliver a disapproval to Trump by shorting DJT. DJT Correlation with Other Financial Instruments Keep in mind that DJT is a single stock with very volatile prices. Its low market valuation opens DJT vulnerable to stock manipulation. A prudent investor may want to consider other assets that move in line with DJT but are less volatile. I looked into a number of financial instruments. Here is what I founded: US stock market indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT Gold and Bitcoin have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT US Dollar Index is positively correlated with the stock prices of DJT, while the Euro-USD Exchange Rate is negatively correlated with the stock prices of DJT Let’s focus on the ones with statistically significant correlations. The dollar index moved in line with Trump’s winning odds. Investors are not necessarily in favor of a Trump win. In my opinion, his America-First policy would help uphold the value of the dollar. Meanwhile, an untested Harris administration means more uncertainties to dollar investors. The Euro-USD is negatively correlated with DJT because of the quoting convention in the FX market. Quoting as number of dollars per euro, dollar appreciation means that each unit of euro could buy fewer dollars, resulting in the declining exchange rate quotation. The opposite also holds true. Trade Setup with the Micro Euro-USD Futures Like trading DJT, a trader could express his political opinions in this election using CME Micro Euro-USD futures ($M6E). M6E contract has a notional value of 12,500 euros. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $280. The December contract (M6EZ4) was settled at $1.0817 last Friday. At the current price, each contract is valued at $13,521.25. The M6E contract is very liquid, with a daily trade volume of 18,096 and an Open Interest of 14,375. Along the line with our preceding discussion, possible trade setup are as follows: • A Trump victory could strengthen the dollar, leading to a decline in M6E quotation. Therefore, a vote for Trump could equal to a short position in Micro Euro-USD futures. • A Harris victory could weaken the dollar, leading to an increase in M6E quotation. A vote for Harris is a No to Trump, which could equal to a long position in M6E. I do not attempt to sway anyone’s vote to one direction or the other. Both views could find application using M6E. Unlike Polymarket, trading futures is not an All-or-Nothing bet. If you are wrong, you may incur losses in the trade, but not necessarily lose everything. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
The Upcoming US Election and Gold’s Record Highs Voters in the United States (US) head to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president. The 60th US Presidential election is shaping up to be a tightly contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with current polls unable to point to a clear-cut winner. In the midst of ongoing campaign efforts, Gold has remained a clear outperformer, garnering global attention from both investors and market commentators. Candidates Neck-And-Neck As Election Day Nears According to ABC News/538’s latest national polling averages, as of 22 October, Harris maintains a narrow lead over Trump with 48.1% vs 46.4%. Additionally, a poll published by The Washington Post on Monday revealed that approximately 47% of registered voters would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ vote for Harris, while 47% stated the same for Trump. The races in the battleground states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona – are particularly intense, with no candidate maintaining a decisive lead. According to ABC News, the margin between Trump and Harris is two percentage points or less in all seven major swing states. Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is a crucial battleground that could determine the outcome of this year’s election. With nine million registered voters, the state typically leans Democratic, having voted for the winner in every presidential election since Barack Obama in 2008. In 2016, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by just 45,000 votes, while Joe Biden secured the state in 2020 with a margin of approximately 90,000 votes, translating into a one-percentage-point victory. Quantus Insights’ latest Pennsylvania survey, conducted between 17 and 20 October, again points to a very tight race, with Trump leading Harris by two-percentage points (50% vs 48%). The upcoming days will be crucial as both candidates ramp up their campaigns in the swing states, which may ultimately shape the election's outcome. Increased Uncertainty; Gold as a Safe Haven US elections are unquestionably among the most significant events for global financial markets. The occupant of the White House directly influences the direction of the US's economic, fiscal, and monetary policies, as well as its foreign relations – factors that are key drivers of market sentiment. Amid growing uncertainty surrounding the US election outcome, gold – a widely recognised safe-haven asset – reached record highs of $2,758 per ounce. This surge is supported by escalating tensions in the Middle East and expectations of further policy easing from the US Federal Reserve, with investors currently pricing in 44 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. Historical Relationship Between Gold, Politics and Economic Landscape Fluctuations in the price of Gold are nothing out of the ordinary for markets and investors. While Gold prices often experience shifts during US election periods, geopolitical events and economic indicators – particularly inflation and unemployment metrics – along with changes (or expectations of a change) in interest rates also impact the price of the yellow metal and its appeal as a safe haven. During Jimmy Carter's presidency from 1977 to 1981, the price of Gold increased by an impressive 326%. In contrast, while Ronald Reagan was in office from 1981 to 1989, the price of the precious metal dropped by 26%. Some analysts argue that the price spike during Carter’s term was a continuation of an upward trajectory which began in 1971 when President Richard Nixon terminated the Gold standard (i.e., the direct international convertibility of the US dollar to Gold) in response to increasing inflation, as well as geopolitical uncertainty brought on by the Cold War. As the US economy recovered and negotiations began with the Soviet Union during the Reagan administration, the price of Gold decreased by almost 50% between the start of his first and second terms. When Barack Obama left the White House in 2017, the prices of Gold and Silver were up by 40% and 50%, respectively, compared to when he took office eight years earlier. Following concerns over the US debt ceiling and fears of the government defaulting on its debt obligations in 2011, Gold surged to US$1,895 – 122% higher than Obama’s first day as president. During Donald Trump’s presidency, and given the economic fall out of the Covid-19 pandemic, the precious metal’s price hit an all-time high of over US$2,000 in August 2020, marking a 72% increase from his first day in office. Gold Bulls Continue to Outperform Despite Overbought Signals Gold has powered higher this year, climbing 34% year to date and recently refreshing all-time highs of US$2,758. The precious metal is on track to pencil in its largest one-year gain in 14 years. While Gold’s rise is noteworthy, longer-term action signals trouble could be ahead. The monthly chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is closing in on an area of resistance between 87.02 and 83.87; historically speaking, the momentum oscillator has turned south every time it has reached this zone since 2008. Another technical observation worth considering on the monthly scale is the convergence of projection ratios at current price. At US$2,723, a 100% projection ratio is present (harmonic traders will recognise this as an AB=CD resistance pattern), which is closely connected with a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at US$2,777 (an ‘alternate’ AB=CD resistance). Meanwhile, price action on the daily chart shows that Gold is colliding with channel resistance, extended from the high of US$2,531. In addition to potential resistance forming on the monthly timeframe between US$2,777 and US$2,723, adding weight to the daily ascending line is the possibility of a negative divergence signal from the RSI on the daily chart. The combination of monthly and neighbouring daily resistance, along with the RSI signalling upside momentum could slow, may be enough to prompt some profit-taking. That said, the underlying drivers remain strong in this market for now. As a result, while a reaction from said resistances could materialise, it is unlikely to gain much following. A breakout higher, on the other hand, swings the pendulum in favour of further outperformance, potentially as far north as US$3,000.
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by FPMarkets
BTC: NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE!!Hey everyone! Appreciate a like and follow if this analysis helps! Bitcoin has successfully broken out from a symmetrical triangle in the 4-hour timeframe. However, a retest of the broken resistance level is likely. Avoid impulsive buying (FOMO) and wait for a potential pullback. Anticipated Timeline: Sideways Movement: Expect Bitcoin to trade sideways for the next week or two. Retest: A retest of the broken resistance level (around $60k) is probable. Post-Retest Outlook: Bullish Momentum: A successful retest and subsequent close above the resistance could ignite a strong rally. Target: The next major target is $80k. What are your thoughts on BTC's current price action? Share your analysis in the comments!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
A New President's Potential Impact on Oil Prices1. Introduction The U.S. presidential election in 2024 is set to bring new leadership, with a new president guaranteed to take office. As history has shown, political transitions often have a profound effect on financial markets, and crude oil is no exception. Traders, investors and hedgers are now asking the critical question: how will WTI Crude Oil futures react to this change in leadership? While there is much speculation about how a Democrat versus a Republican might shape oil policy, data-driven insights provide a more concrete outlook. Using a machine learning model based on key U.S. economic indicators, we’ve identified potential movements in crude oil prices, spanning short, medium, and long-term timeframes. 2. Key Machine Learning Predictions for Crude Oil Prices Short-Term (1 Week to 1 Month): Based on the machine learning model, the immediate market reaction within the first week following the election is expected to be minimal, with predicted price changes below 2% for both a Republican and Democratic win. The one-month outlook also suggests additional opportunity. Medium-Term (1 Quarter to 1 Year): The model shows a significant divergence in crude oil prices over the medium term, with a potential sharp upward movement one year after the election. Regardless of which party claims the presidency, WTI crude oil prices could potentially rise by over 40%. This is in line with historical trends where significant price shifts occurred one year post-election, driven by economic recovery, fiscal policies, and broader market sentiment. Long-Term (4 Years): Over the course of the full four-year presidential term, the model predicts more moderate growth, averaging around 15%. The data suggests that, while short-term market movements may seem reactive, the long-term outlook is more balanced and less influenced by the winning party. Instead, economic conditions, such as interest rates and industrial activity, will have a more sustained impact on crude oil prices. 3. Feature Importance: The Drivers Behind Crude Oil Price Movements The machine learning model's analysis highlights that crude oil price movements, especially one year after the election, are primarily driven by economic indicators, rather than the political party in power. Below are the top features influencing crude oil prices: Top Economic Indicators Influencing Crude Oil: Fed Funds Rate: The most significant driver of crude oil prices, as interest rate policies affect everything from borrowing costs to overall economic growth. Changes in the Fed Funds Rate can signal shifts in economic activity that directly impact oil demand apart from the US Dollar itself. Labor Force Participation Rate: A critical indicator of economic health, a higher participation rate suggests a stronger labor market, which supports increased industrial activity and energy consumption, including crude oil. Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI reflects inflation at the producer level, impacting the cost of goods and services, including oil-related industries. Consumer Sentiment Index: A measure of the general public's outlook on the economy, which indirectly influences energy demand as consumer confidence affects spending patterns. Unit Labor Costs: An increase in labor costs can signal inflationary pressures, which could lead to changes in oil prices as businesses pass on higher costs to consumers. This study exclusively uses U.S. economic data, excluding oil-related fundamentals such as OPEC+ supply and demand information, in order to focus on the election’s direct impact through domestic economic channels. Minimal Influence of Political Party on Price Movements: Interestingly, the machine learning model suggests that the political party of the newly elected president has a relatively low impact on crude oil prices. The performance of WTI crude oil appears to be more closely tied to macroeconomic factors, such as employment data and inflation, than the specific party in power. These findings emphasize the importance of focusing on economic fundamentals when analyzing crude oil price movements for longer term exposures, rather than solely relying on political outcomes. 4. Historical Analysis of Crude Oil Price Reactions to U.S. Elections Looking back over the last two decades, the performance of crude oil post-election has varied, depending on global conditions and the economic policies of the newly elected president. Notable Historical Movements: George W. Bush (Republican): In his 2000 election, crude oil dropped nearly 50% within a year, reflecting the broader economic fallout from the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the events of 9/11. In contrast, his 2004 re-election saw oil prices climb 21.5% within a year, driven by the Iraq War and increasing global demand for energy. Barack Obama (Democratic): After his 2008 election, crude oil prices surged by 33.8% within one year, partly due to economic recovery efforts following the global financial crisis. His 2012 re-election saw more modest growth, with an 8.3% rise over the same period. Donald Trump (Republican): His election in 2016 coincided with a moderate 23.8% increase in crude oil prices over one year, as the U.S. ramped up energy production through fracking, contributing to global supply increases. Joe Biden (Democratic): Most recently, crude oil prices skyrocketed by over 100% in the year following Biden’s 2020 victory, driven by post-pandemic economic recovery and supply chain disruptions that affected global energy markets. 5. WTI Crude Oil Contracts: CL and MCL Explained When trading crude oil futures, the two most popular contracts offered by the CME Group are WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) and Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL). Both contracts offer traders a way to speculate or hedge on the price movements of crude oil, but they differ in size, margin requirements, and ideal use cases. WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL): Price Fluctuations: The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $10 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: As of recent estimates, the margin requirement for trading a CL contract is around $6,000, though this can fluctuate depending on market volatility. Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL): Price Fluctuations: 10 times less. The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $1 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: 10 times less, around $600 per contract. Practical Application: During periods of heightened market volatility—such as the lead-up to and aftermath of a U.S. presidential election—traders can use both CL and MCL contracts to navigate expected price fluctuations. Larger traders might use CL to hedge against or capitalize on significant price movements, while retail traders may prefer MCL for smaller, controlled exposure. 6. Conclusion As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, crude oil traders are watching closely for market signals. While political outcomes can cause short-term volatility, the machine learning model’s predictions emphasize that broader economic factors will drive crude oil prices more significantly over the medium and long term. Whether a Democrat or Republican wins, crude oil prices are expected to see a potential increase, particularly one year after the election. This surge, driven by factors such as interest rates, labor market health, and inflation, suggests that traders should focus on these economic indicators rather than placing too much weight on which party claims the presidency. 7. Risk Management Reminder Navigating market volatility, especially during a presidential election period, requires careful risk management. Crude oil traders, whether trading standard WTI Crude Oil futures (CL) or Micro WTI Crude Oil futures (MCL), should be mindful of the following strategies to mitigate potential risks: Use of Stop-Loss Orders: Setting predefined exit points, traders can avoid significant drawdowns if the market moves against their position. Leverage and Margin Control: Overexposure can lead to margin calls and forced liquidation of positions in volatile markets. Position Sizing: Adjusting position sizes according to risk tolerance is vital especially during uncertain periods like elections. Hedging Strategies: Traders might consider hedging their crude oil positions with other instruments, such as options or spreads, to protect against unexpected market moves. Monitoring Economic Indicators: Keeping a close watch on key U.S. economic data can provide valuable clues to future crude oil futures price movements. By using these risk management tools effectively, traders can better navigate the expected volatility surrounding the 2024 U.S. election and protect themselves from significant market swings. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Editors' picks
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
5
DXY - Looking to Big PictureWhen we look back, when Trump first came, Dxy showed a 5.5% increase, Dxy goes to 103.5. And Trump Dxy is too expensive, the dollar is too expensive, it should fall, the statements started. Then Dxy's 14% decrease went to 88.5. Now Dxy is around 102. I bought it directly as a fractal from August 15, 2016. If Dxy comes to around 104 until the election, the rapid increase with Trump's arrival corresponds to 110s. It has been an expected area for a long time and when Trump Dxy is at 110s, similarly, if the decrease starts with him saying the dollar is too expensive, it goes to 94s, fractal. Here, my hopes begin and I say that it is still expensive at those levels, we will go down to 86s. This means a 4-year never-ending mega bull. I applied the same fractal to the euro, and the much-anticipated 1.02s are here again. If I can get a fund, I will look for swing shorts at 1.12s. The fractal and events looked pretty good to me. It also fit the channel nicely. FX:EURUSD
TVC:DXY
by mooniron
Shib path to November 2024 - 2025 Hola Shib-inu fans, I have been getting request while I was away - asking what's the next move for Shib in this current market today. Along with questions such as: Why is it crashing so much? Should you buy, hold, or sell? Where do you see the market in the next year? To answer that question is simply put I can not answer that directly at this time. Reason being, the market is currently influenced by the United States political and economical climate and is likely going to make an even greater impact based on which candidate wins office. Republicans🐘 vs 🐎Democrats Currently control the market movement, and if you don't believe me, after Donald Trump was shot, Republicans believed that this would land Trump a landslide victory, so Whales and influencers to the market flooded the main crypto wallets BTC and ETH among others with rally that led the price of bitcoin from a 56k lost back to a 70k return. Another example of how the US as well as China has a major controlling factor on how the market moves, is the fact that this most recent crash is based on the US CPI report being unsatisfactory forcing both the crypto and SnP market to crash from that outcome alone. This is mostly the results of Bitcoin and its holders trying desperately to have ETF's take center stage and by doing so gave much of the control over financial growth to the banks and the governments that control them. That's the price we paid to have ETF's we are now apart of the regulatory stock market which is mainly control by the US market base. So to understand where the next move for shib may lead is basically impossible to tell depending on who wins in November, so to help with this issue, I made a pathing map, and possible areas of concern for holders to look out for on a modified day chart converted to a weekly chart. This path starts and end in November of 2024 to 2025 where if the republicans win, it will influence buying power from whales looking to capitalize on the returning president trump and the republican party new policies that want to put in place that is more beneficial to those with wealth they which to extend further. vs Another democratic win where policies may not change to much but will be a greater impact on the financial markets as a whole which will not rally whales if any at all and will likely cause a selloff in much of the markets not just in crypto. So hopefully this map helps guide you to a positive path to riches or avoid a possible path to ruin.
by Grandmaster_Oz
9
Election Year Jitters: How to Navigate the Volatile US Equity MaUS Presidential Elections and US Equities are a match made in heaven. History shows that market swings more up than down. This year, prepare for a wild ride full of twists. Sadly, former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally over the weekend. He survived and is safe. Investors are expected to shift into haven assets. Gold could test all-time highs. The Dollar, Yen and Bitcoin will rise. WHAT IS THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE THEORY? Yale Hirsch introduced this theory. It posits that stock markets are weakest in the year following Presidential elections. The presidential election impacts economic policies and consequently market sentiment. Theory suggests that US equities perform best during the third followed by the fourth year of a Presidential term. In 1967, Yale Hirsch (a market researcher) published the first edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. According to the book, the President typically indulges the special interest group who got him elected in the first two years after assuming the office. With the next election round the corner, the President shifts focus on shoring up the economy to get re-elected during the third and fourth year. Consequently, equities gain during the second half of the Presidential term. That's the theory, but does it hold true? The answer turns out to be an emphatic yes. S&P500 Index Performance since 1960 with election years highlighted BUT HOW ABOUT SECOND HALF OF THE ELECTION YEAR? With half of the election year behind us, crucially, how do markets perform during the second half of an election year? Over the last 6 decades, the S&P500 on average delivered positive returns in 13 of the 16 election years during the second half of the year. 2008 was a washout year for equities with global financial crisis crushing equities. The S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.1% followed by 3.2% in the second half on average even after including 2008. S&P500 tends have positive bias in election years Excluding 2008, average S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.9% followed by 5.4% in the second half. S&P500 positive bias during election years is even more pronounced when 2008 GFC abnormal returns are excluded PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE History has shown time and again that timing the market is futile. Using Hirsch’s theory as gospel can be dangerous. Presidential elections occur once only every four years. Even though the analysis above covers 6 decades, it only has 16 data points. By any measure, that's far too little to arrive at definitive conclusions. As any sensible statistician would tell you, even if two variables are correlated (election cycle and S&P500), it does not guarantee causation. WHAT CAN INVESTORS EXPECT DURING 2024 ELECTION YEAR? It is not just historical precedent that suggests upside in the next six months, market conditions also suggest equities could see further upside. 2024 has been a stunning year. Gen AI frenzy has fuelled powerful rally. It has been the strongest tailwind since the dot-com mania. Unlike the dot-gone era, companies are producing eye-popping revenues and profits that support the rally. The recession that never came has been a powerful tailwind that has helped equity markets soar to heights never seen before. Inflation has been easing. Labour markets are tightening. Expectations of rate cuts are rising fast. The next Fed meeting is scheduled on 31st July. Markets are pricing 93% chance of the Fed Fund rates remaining unchanged at the current 525-550 basis points (bps). The picture is starkly different for the Fed meeting on 18th September. Markets are pricing >90% chance of the Fed starting to cut the rates by 25bps based on CME FedWatch tool as of close of markets on 12th July 2024. Slowing economy and rising unemployment will trigger the Fed to commence its rate cutting cycle Citi analysts predict that the Fed will slash rates by 200 bps (2% in total) by the summer of 2025. 25bps of rate cuts in eight successive meetings, starting in September. A slowing economy and growing unemployment are cited as the basis for this aggressive rate cut cycle. RATE CUTS WILL PUT MARKETS ON TOP GEAR Two active wars. Extreme weather conditions. Shocks from elections across the globe. None of these have had any dampening effect on equities. Such is the euphoria. Rate cuts will put a turbo charged market on steroids. Investors out to be cautious to assess if rate cuts are already priced into equities given that S&P 500 is up >11% over last three months including 2.8% so far in July. It is essential to make risk mitigated moves in the second half of an election year. WHAT ALTERNATIVES DO INVESTORS HAVE? There are many alternatives. Three common possibilities are (a) Long Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, (b) Long call options on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, and (c) Bullish put spread on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures. Futures enable direct, liquid, and efficient access to the index. Long call enables investors to gain from rising S&P 500 and from volatility expansion. Bullish put spread allows the trader to harvest put options premium as the index rises. The bull put spread consists of one short put with a higher strike and one long put with a lower strike. Given the sharp run-up in the index and expected volatility, long calls are not viable. Risk reward ratios for a bullish put are not compelling. Hence, a hypothetical trade set up using futures. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With equity markets in euphoria and rate cuts expected starting in September, US equities are poised to rally further. Historical precedent shows that 2H of election years tends to results in positive returns in the S&P 500. Investors can express this view using Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index futures. Trade set up using Micro E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures expiring in Dec 2024 (MESZ2024) is summarised below: • Entry: 5650 • Target: 6030 • Stoploss: 5400 • Profit at target: USD 1,900 (6030 – 5650 = 380 index points; Profit = 380 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,900) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,250 (5400 – 5650 = 250 index points; Loss = 250 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,250) • Reward to Risk: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Long
by mintdotfinance
GOLD ANALYSIS 27/06/24Current Gold Price Trends: Gold is currently trading around $2,328.135, having rebounded from $2,315 due to a weaker US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields The anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year supports the bullish sentiment for gold . Impact of Core PCE Index on Gold: The Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation measure, will be released tomorrow. This data can significantly influence gold prices as it shapes Federal Reserve policies A higher-than-expected Core PCE Index could indicate persistent inflation, potentially leading to higher Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar, which may exert bearish pressure on gold prices . Conversely, a lower-than-expected Core PCE Index may suggest slowing inflation, prompting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, thereby supporting bullish momentum for gold Technical Analysis from the Screenshot: The chart shows key resistance levels at 138.00% ($2,397.895), 161.80% ($2,416.014), and 175.00% ($2,426.064) Fibonacci retracement levels for bullish scenarios. Key support levels for bearish scenarios are indicated at 138.00% ($2,257.790), 161.80% ($2,238.630), and 175.00% ($2,228.003) Fibonacci retracement levels. If the Core PCE Index is extremely low, gold may break above the resistance levels; if it is extremely high, gold may break below the support levels.µ Reminder : i will update with news , possible entries Stay Tuned and Support me & Max Share and Boost Brothers & Sisters Love to help you all
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TraderFa9ir
GBPUSD : All The Focus Is on The U.S ElectionGBPUSD : All The Focus Is on The U.S Election The US election is keeping all markets under a lot of pressure. The whole focus is on who will win the election because it will also determine the fate of the currency for the next 2 years. It will be interesting and very dangerous at the same time. Technical Analysis: Price is developing a large contracting pattern with the actual data that we actually have. Chances are it could go higher given that the market is focused on a Republican victory this time. The first and strongest resistance will be near 1.1720 After this point, anything can happen. Thank you and Good Luck!
by KlejdiCuni
13
#BITCOIN Update : 11.09.22 By re-examining the Bitcoin chart, we can see that yesterday's price managed to fill the FVG exactly from the range we analyzed and managed to grow up to $20,600, and after that, it was corrected and dumped again with the news about the US congressional elections And it dropped to $17,200! Now we have to wait to see if the price will stabilize above the $17,000 level or not! This analysis will be updated (don't rush to make a decision) Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.09.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
28