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Usequities

ridethepig | Tracking CNH Extremely Closely🔸 China Macro Flows 🔸 The point of this configuration is that CNH is influencing the currency, equity and commodity board that can be seen in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, OIL, Gold and everything in-between...USD's cannot make any use of the Yuan devaluation and this has been a threat ever since Saudi unlocked the CNY oil contract. For those tracking the Long-term Macro Playbook we are reaching the first area of strong support. Now that all the pieces to the global economy are hanging by a thread, it will be difficult to continue betting on the downside in USD until we clear the second chapter in covid. To put simply, expecting a temporary stop-over till 2021 as markets will have a difficult time from August convincing people to stand as guarantors to CNH till year-end. The "Giant Panda" has been playing a 🔑 role in sitting on the AUD bid...however, in an ever changing environment the arrival of Covid Chapter II will make things even more complex. Highly recommend digging deeper into the AUDCNH and NZDCNH which are both experiencing the slingshot as widely expected since the start of the pandemic: 📍 AUDCNH 📍 NZDCNH ... As you all know by now the Oil devaluation gave China a third lever to control its C.A surplus - by devaluing the black stuff it was the equivalent of devaluating the Yuan. As long as we get another hammer in Oil then it will offset any upside in CNHUSD, the only way that the U.S. can manoeuvre around this is by pushing up the price of XAU in USD terms. Why❓ ... Well as we can trade GC1 and CL1 in both USD and CNY terms it means the Gold:Oil ratio is indirectly tightening the noose on the petrodollar market. Despair. It illustrates the unhealthy stance of the energy market and the 'checkmate' from China/Russia. The textbook move involves a pinning of USD and US Equities. We are still not quite there yet where the USD can begin the waterfall devaluation, it will take a Plaza Accord 2.0 to trigger such an event and until the dollar peaks Equities will remain vulnerable to gyrations in risk sentiment. Those who are betting on the CNHUSD breakdown are also aiming for a retest of support at the March lows in SPX, NQ and DJIA... The USD will still be the safest place to park in Covid Chapter II. 📍 The Dow 📍 Shanghai Comp Highly recommend tracking CNH in the 'endgame' of the economy cycle. Typically recessions last 5 Quarters in time and it is far from unusual to see 2 or 3 of those Quarters as dead-cat-bounces. If you are still in any doubts of the picture equity promoters are painting, please take a look at Long Bonds which are refusing to subscribe to the V-shaped consensus view. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | A 'Harry Potter' Scar ⚡️A highly interesting move, the necessary preparation for the counter swing. Sellers are aiming to complete the ABC sequence and ideally sweep the lows into 2020 Elections. The main feature of interest to us is the role played by the latest protests and virus cases ticking higher. A "second wave" will act as another strong post / blockader between consumer confidence and the establishment . The cramping influence of social justice can very quickly turn into class warfare which polarises countries. In the initial 'zig' part of the correction we analysed exchanges in DAX. In addition, we also exchanged the flows in VIX to avoid being forced into covering or retreating or to make a momentum-wasting attacking play (liquidating buyers stops with subsequent breakdowns). Basically, Global Equities can be considered as a combination, as in any case we are in 'risk-on/risk-off' exchanges. In the "endgame" part of the correction the apparently desirable reopenings of the economy will act as opportunity for us to see the latest Robinhood traders money fall into our lap as if it were a ripe fruit. Just think back to our newly developed tsunami across the labour force: The destruction goes much further because of its damage radius, the wide stretch of damage in confidence has created a territory which is centrally positioning consumers for a retracement after a decade long cycle. The simplest explanation would be the following 'Consumer Staples' diagram: Here it is usually an ABC sequence which we are talking about: we have the choice of treating it with 3-5-3 zig and zag on both sides which mean soft hand buyers are now next to come under attack. The 🔑 point is that we will want to clear some at +/- 2570 initial target and leave the rest running for a destructive 2018 main swing. Once we breakdown again there will be a psychologically difficult environment, it will create desirable swings for some cheap buying opportunities later in the year. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
6
S&P BULLISH BIAS & CONTINUATIONThe TVC:SPX rose 3.2% last week finally closing above the last previous high at around 2940. This indicates to me that there are still a lot of buyers in the market, the likelihood is that price will continue to make gains in the following weeks. If there is a decline in price, a good buying area (depending on price action) to jump onto the trend will be around the 2800 region. My preference however is over the coming weeks too see if price is able to clear and retest the 3000 handle, if this becomes a reality this is where I will look to add some more positions.
TVC:SPXLong
by Too_Ray1
When Is The Next Stock Market Crash?First of all, I have zero financial knowledge. I am not educated and finance is not my profession. I barely understand your language. I'm only a technical guy. Looking at charts, I have predicted some possible targets of the next stock market crash. The worst scenario begins around $2600's. Hopefully this never happens. Maybe there's only 1% probability or maybe less. According to my analysis, S&P 500 is more likely going back $2600 any time sooner. And i think AMZN will crash more than 50% Not all my predictions are accurate. Nobody is 100% accurate. But, what if I'm right? Are you ready for that? Here are my targets S&P current price: $3103 / 04-Dec-19 1. 3090 - Already hit and please ignore this 2. 3045 - 1.87% / 01-Nov-19 3. 2925 - 5.73% / 10-Oct-19 4. 2845 - 8.30 / 26-Aug-19 5. 2670 - 13.95% / 30-Jan-19 6. 960 - 69.0% / 23-Jul-09 Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. Trade safe, Atilla Yurtseven
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AtillaYurtseven
Tracking 1480-1475 in Russell..From the previous idea (see attached: "Russel leading the consolidation pack") you will know that Russell in many ways has been acting as a leading indicator for US Equities. This is interesting timingwise, especially when the break to new highs in S&P and NQ occurred was not comparable in Russell. So here we are now only needing to track the 1480-1475 region. This is the 38.2% retrace and we 'know' in advance is the level bulls would want to turn for continuation. Should we break lower then it will really knock confidence and imply we are starting to show early signs of an impulsive selloff. This will also bring into question the more meaningful top. Tracking it very closely with Mueller cleared...Best of luck all and thanks for the support!
TVC:RUTShort
by ridethepig