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S&P500: below 3-month Range for a 2nd dayS&P500 is approaching its support at 2553 April's low , 61.8% FIb extension for December) where if sustains above this hurdle, it could potentially rise to its resistance at 2600-2630 (FE100 November retracement , 7-week Support). RSI is at 33, approaching its oversold barrier where a corresponding bounce could occur. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
SP:SPX
by HotForex
DOW: Reverts from 26,000 barrier once againBy Andria Pichidi - November 19, 2018 USA30 has reversed off its resistance once again, at 26,000-26,777 (November's peak and latest daily fractal high, 23% Fibonacci retracement, trendline connecting lower peaks since October). It is currently consolidating around the 20-day SMA, at 25,250, after breaking below the 50- and 200-day SMA, where it could potentially continue sloping lower, towards its 2-month Support area at 24,240-24,400 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support in November). Meanwhile, the death cross formed further supports the negative outlook in the near term for USA30. RSI (14) is neutral as it is consolidating around 50 and MACD (12,26,9) remains within the negative area, however it presents poor negative momentum so far. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaime r: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
TVC:DJIShort
by HotForex
Is the current rally similar to the 1994~2000 price rally?Is the current market rally similar in structure and scope to the 1994~2000 market price rally? I'm beginning to wonder if the current US equity market may be more aligned with the 1994~2000 technology run in the US equity markets vs. what many analysts are predicting (doom and gloom). All it takes for one to consider the alternative of a massive price advance is to consider the Obama and global central banks dumped $20+ trillion into the global economy and we have yet to really see any massive advancement of any real asset other than Real Estate (which the US fed is mitigating with rate hikes). Innovation and growth could last another 6+ years from early 2017 if my analysis is correct. What changed in 2017? President Trump. Why is this so important? President Trump was able to unleash the US economy by removing regulations and jump-starting US growth and manufacturing at rates nearly 2x to 3x that of the Obama administration. Yes, Real Estate rallied under Obama, but that was about it. Now, the US economy appears to be firing on all cylinders and I'm expecting continued growth unless some crisis event blows a hole in the expectations of the markets.
SP:SPXLong
by BradMatheny
3
S&P 500 (Daily Chart) - Aftermath of MidtermsOver the past 2 weeks, we saw a very strong rebound from the selldown, but the big question is whether this is a temporary rebound or the start of a larger downtrend. I think the key level is the yellow zone I highlighted, because if prices manage to break below it, then the downtrend is confirmed. Currently, I expect a lot of sideways trading in between this support zone and the price swing highs, and bulls and bears battle it out to see who will emerge victorious. Personally, I am more inclined to the bearish side.
SP:SPX
by SynapseTrading
USA500 persists into the 2,800 areaBy Andria Pichidi - November 8, 2018 USA500, Daily US Equities remained sharply elevated with relief gains of 1.5-2.1% on Wall Street after Trump’s wild press conference. This follows Wall Street’s biggest midterm election day rally since 1982, with the USA500 closing over 2%, which is its 2nd-largest post-election rally since at least 1950 (midterm or presidential). The USA500 cash index has rebounded by 4.3% from the 6-month low that was seen on October 29th. The rally should be seen in context of coming after sharp losses in October, which, with the midterms having largely confirmed pre-election poll predictions, paved the way for a buy-on-fact reaction on Wall Street. The USA500 had racked up a loss of nearly 7% in October, its worst month since September 2011 and the worst October since 2008, while the tech-laden Nasdaq index had fallen by 9.2%. Meanwhile, yesterday, the index cleared 2.8k after closing above its resistance at 200-day MA, of 2,762.49, which coupled with very strong momentum, recovering more than the 50% of October’s losses. Currently, it is in correction mode, presently showing a 0.4% decline, struggling to hit more up to the next important barrier, which is at the 2,817.70-2824.00 area. The latter is the confluence of the latest up fractal, the 61.8% Fib. retracement level and the 20-week MA, and that renders it into a strong resistance area. The overall picture of the USA500 remains bullish with momentum indicators also suggesting that there is further steam to the upwards. Momentum indicators are increasingly positively configured, suggesting a continuation of the upside movement. RSI is at 55 and rising, while MACD lines are decreasing within the negative territory, presenting a decline of the negative momentum. However as the Resistance barrier is considered strong, a close today below 2,800 level could imply a potential pull back of the asset’s price. The huge daily bullish candle, confirmed a supportive floor around the 2,742.00-2,743.60 area, which coincides with the 20-day MA and 4 consecutive days’ lows in the mid of October. Further losses below this Support could drift the price to 2,683 (FE 61.8 set on October’s rebound, and also the 23.6% Fib. level since 2,939.80 peak). Oppositely, on a break of the Resistance area, we could see the USA500 being boosted to October’s peak. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
SShort
by HotForex
If ES closes above 2790 this week, we could see a massive rallyBased on my analysis, if the ES closes above 2790 this week or next, actually if it breaks that heavy magenta arc on my chart, we could see a massive upside price rally unfold very quickly. These price arcs are what I call "Tesla Vibrational Theory" studies. The idea for this is that every price move, large or small, equates into pure energy (energy of price). With each price reversal, a unique energy output is emitted - each with it's own amplitude, frequency and power rating. My objective is to try to map these energy pulses because I believe they help to identify future price levels/targets/inflection points. If my analysis is correct, this 2790 level is currently acting as resistance, but should create a massive support level once this level is breached. Yes, I'm talking about a massive short squeeze and a real blow your socks off type of rally. Be prepared.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
1
US BANK INDEX - 15% Countercyclical Trade?The selloff has been fairly steep in this index as we now trading below the descending channel. We are very oversold here, so let's look for a re-entry back into the channel and see if we can hit channel resistance before we get another consolidating sell-off. Here's the weekly snapshot: We can see we are close to the EMA200 and will probably need to retest resistance before we break below it. ***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
B
by Trader6127
DJI - Profound analysis and upcoming important events.As noted in the chart provided, the downtrend persist but that can change sooner than later. The chart shows that November 1st will be a key day, for the reason I will explain below. The weekly DJI chart shows a bear market trend with oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) and near to support levels. Also, as noted in the chart weak hands have not been washed entirely yet, meaning that there could is a further downside risk. This applies to similar indexes like S&P and Nasdaq. Hisotrically, when weak hands are fully washed out the probability of a bull run is very high. Now any bounce is suspect but several positive factors are coming into play that call for a fair probability of a very short term bottom. - The market is about to enter a seasonally strong period. - Mid-term elections are ahead. Often elections remove uncertainty and the market goes up irrespective of who wins. - Interest rates are coming down after a spike. - Overall the U. S economy is staying strong. - If the Fed were to indicate that it will slow down raising rates, it will spark a massive rally in stocks. - President Trump and President Xi of China will be meeting next month. Optimism over a trade deal may drive a rally. Money flows: Tech stocks have been the market leaders. For this reason it makes sense to look at money flows in stocks such as Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Netflix. Semiconductors are the lifeblood of the modern economy. Semiconductor stocks have been hit hard. It makes sense to pay attention to money flows in stocks such as Intel, AMD, NVIDIA and Micron. - This market is under the control of the momo (momentum) crowd. For this reason it makes a lot of sense to pay attention to the momo crowd especially for the short term. - Smart money tends to have more consistent patterns than the momo crowd. Setting stock market technicals aside, there is a big headwind for the stock market that many investors have not noticed. The headwind is slowing earnings growth momentum. Why November 1st may be an important day for the market? United States is publishing the monthly ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and smart money will pay close attention to it. Apple will report earnings November 1st after the close. Whisper numbers for Apple are higher than the consensus numbers. Stocks move based on the difference between the whisper numbers and the reported numbers. If it falls, watch out below — but this warning has to be tempered because of the six factors that can ignite a rally explained above. Of course if Apple earnings are good, it may also ignite a rally, specially if weak hands have been fully washed and strong PMI is reported.
DJ:DJI
by sickgains
US Equities - Official 10% Correction The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30USD) has officially posted a 10% drop from its high on the 03.10.18 at 26950. It is now classified as an official correction as illustrated by a 10% drop. The relentless sell off in US equities shows that there is still severe trepidation in markets. Furthermore, the similar aggressive sell-off in all other global equities shows that the hysteria and risk adverse sentiment is still very strong and I believe it may continue to worsen. While there is no major macroeconomic direct event that has sparked the sell-off that is rivalling the worst month since 2008, the discourse has been centred around a looming recession in late 2019 and 2020, Trump's dilemmas in the trade war, rising interest rates as well as political turmoil in the EU (Germany's Merkel, Brexit, Italy's Budget). This has quite strongly negatively impacted world equities and investor sentiment has declined rapidly this month. What's worse is that the market is struggling to grapple on to some positive news. It is trying to find solace in earnings, global macro data, mergers and acquisitions. However, the data fails to carry any positive momentum in the markets. This is an incredibly difficult time to gauge the strength of the market as traditional positive macro events and solid earnings have always been superseded by 4-6 week aggressive bull run with little to no room for weakness. This is no longer the case. As such, I believe its time to relinquish our reliance on technical analysis and put a greater focus on fundamentals. The markets have pushed through all traditional technical analysis indicators and overlays the past month and as such, they provide no safety net from falling further. Also, try to be mindful of the fundamental and technical analysis that spurted out by professionals traders, analysts and researchers. It was only the last two weeks when the consensus was to 'buy the dip' which was simply poor advice as the market fell by a further 4 -5 %. The Nasdaq, just shy of falling 15% from its 01.10.18 high, illustrates that our favourite tech tycoons are at the front of the sell-off. NAS100USD Now, today 30.10.18 as of Australia UCT +11 time, DJIA has dipped past 10% and technically broken the long term lower lows trend line from Feb '18 pull-back (yellow line on chart). While the break is not substantial, it may (50% chance) go lower and rival the dreaded 23000 mark. Despite this, an official 10% correction banner on CNN, Fox News, RT and of course other non-financial news outlets can easily alert the market and pusher equities higher as investors feel that are correction exceeding 10% is not warranted in the current climate and hence rebound for possibly the last leg of the bull run. Again, I'm not particularly sure which way it will go and I am definitely not confident taking any risks in equities this week. From my point of view, equities are way too risky right now and I believe it is not a good idea to risk any capital trading in any equity class. I am going to sit on my hands for at least this trading week and reassess next Monday to gauge the market's momentum and direction. I am strongly embodying a risk-adverse sentiment for the month of November. 30/10/18
OANDA:US30USD
by Dubsta000
US Bull Market at Risk - Pivotal Week US equities have had a largely aggressive bull run to date. However, current economic conditions and future expectations are seriously rattling investor confidence. As the Fed Chair stated last week, it is very rare for markets to decrease in strong economic growth conditions. However, we have had three major corrections this year alone and the bulls are starting to question the strength of the current trend. Although investor sentiment is not exactly confident which way the market will go (look at the dramatic rise in the save-haven asset, gold, over last two weeks), it does not mean that we are definitely heading for a reversal. It is still a possibility and it should be considered into long term strategies. The chart above indicates that we are in the last stage of the cup and handle bullish continuation pattern. While it does show signs of bullish continuation on a technical analysis front, it is in no comparison to the underlying fundamental analysis of the market, which has the greater pull on the market for medium to long term. As such, this coming week 22-26/10/18 will be pivotal in determining where the market is leaning. Worst case scenario, earnings from Caterpillar (CAT), 3M (MMM), McDonalds (MCD), Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T) Boeing (BA) Lockheed Martin (LMT) will be OK but falls short of earnings expectation. This will most likely plunge the market further down as the market starts to realise the larger implications of the global economy. Gold and US T-Bonds yields will rise aggressively, fund managers will come out and say they are changing the weight of their portfolios to larger fixed income and cash securities. The list goes on, but you get the point, global sentiment will change and warnings will pursue. Best case scenario, earnings of the above-mentioned companies are strong, some positive news about China decentralisation, de-escalation in the trade war etc, market rebounds and closes above 26000 for the week. Following that, cup and handle bullish analysis can be sought and new long positions can be opened. Another flat week is not good and sees an equal chance in going either direction. 2018 has been a tumultuous year for equities and the market is not responding well to technical analysis. The market is largely determined by fundamental analysis such as Trump Administration International Relations, global economy health, trade wars et cetera. So try to understand the economic conditions before applying technical analysis as it will provide much needed context and ground your analysis with global risk sentiment. 21.10.18
OANDA:US30USD
by Dubsta000
$TWTR - Regulation May Give Pressure Towards $28=> Increased sector regulation via Cambridge Analytica etc is going to be bad news for TWTR and we believe the recent squeeze in shorts has run its course. => Despite front-end rates ticking to the upside this year, differentials will not be enough to protect global Equity pressure will encourage investors to sell, especially in the U.S. => A likely correction is necessary and healthy in this case as we look for a more meaningful rebound in TWTR towards the end of Q318. => From a technical perspective we are seeing weakness around the 61.8 fib as widely expected. GL all
NYSE:TWTRShort
by RaiseTheBid
1
S&P Recovery Less Certain As Bulls Look Exhausted=> Here actively looking for positions in S&P around the 2730 handle. Expecting equities enjoying the recent short lived relief rally on Thursday's U.S CPI miss to finish after the NY opening range today. => A weekly close below 2730 will be needed for bears to retain the upper hand as this may see bearish sentiment resume early Monday. => Things are starting to look very dark ahead for the U.S economy via protectionism with Iran deal, trade wars et al providing fuel to the fire. => A failure to register a weekly close below 2730 will strengthen the upside bias. => From a TA perspective we are trading simple Support and Resistance levels here as bulls begin to look exhausted, no more, no less. GL
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by RaiseTheBid
NASDAQ Could Offer KILLER value in the futureThis quarterly trend line projected from the Q4 '08 and Q3 '10 key lows is what has held up this long-term rally and is extremely significant because of that. There's been some talk lately in the trading community about the reliability of trend-lines and whether or not they're useful, judging by this chart I'd say if drawn correctly they're pretty damn reliable... This is an ideal time for a high on the quarterly time frame according to bull cycle counts. If price can bounce and pullback to the trend line and reject it with some nice price action I'll buy the hell out of it (notice how the fibs and major 2000 high sit right on top of that area). If it breaks this line then look out below... There may be some opportunities to play a move (short) into that support area via this index and/or $AAPL but I need to see confirmation of a top. I'm not trying to get honey-dicked with a bear trap like everyone whos been shorting US equities over the past year or two. I'll post more analysis and go over the opportunities once things become clearer. Checkout my website @ PatsTrades (link is on my profile page below my picture) for my analysis on other trades like this and subscribe to avoid missing out on ideas and entries. Thanks!!
TVC:NDQ
by patrick186
waiting for the bell...US equities are starting to look well and truly overcooked, if we don't see a rate hike today (very unlikely) then July will come. Eyes on the rhetoric around the balance sheet today will be the key to pandoras box, in my books we are set for a mid term change of trend in US equities ... expecting a clean sweep for the 2417 handle with a tick below unlocking the air underneath In the related ideas are the 3 parts to Brexit , explore those when you have time as they will start to build a picture for how we are aligning for a massacre in equity markets, UK equities wont give till US and Europe also begin too!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by TheBanker
1
NSPR Could Be Deep Value Comeback StoryI wrote an extensive piece on NSPR in which I go into depth on the company and the potential turnaround story, you can find it here: rockvuecapital.wordpress.com Trading at a 77% discount to book value, an 81% discount to sales, an 81% discount to NCAV, and a 43% discount to net cash, NSPR is roadkill in the market. However, no matter how great the value may seem, it does nothing for us if the price action doesn't coincide with our thesis. For this reason we must take into consideration the chart. As you can see from the chart, there is tremendous amounts of consolidation at the 0.76 to .60 price channel. In an effort to focus more on the price action, I am looking for a breakout from that 0.76 price level. If that breakout happens, it could signal the bullish thesis I laid out. A more convincing price action would be a breakout above the 50 MA. I am content to wait on this one and wait for the price action to confirm my entry.
NLong
by BrandonBeylo
3
VIX showing signs of strength into the coming monthsThere are further signs of bullish trend development in the VIX. Prices are now trading above congestion around 15.00 as momentum studies post positive divergence and continue to strengthen. The proprietary Tension Indicator (not shown) is also improving. In the coming months, expectations are for higher levels to attract, with focus turning to congestion around 20.00 and the 20.20, (23.6%) Fibonacci retracement of the August-February fall. A close above the 23.01 high of November 2016 is needed, however, to confirm a fresh rally, with subsequent gains opening up the 26.50, (38.2%) Fibonacci retracement and the 26.72 high of June. A close below the 9.97 low of February would add fresh downside pressure to price action and target critical support at the 9.39 contract lows of 2006. An unexpected break would confirm fresh downside tests as the 2015 bear trend gains fresh traction.
TVC:VIX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
VIX under pressure, but close to critical supportsThe VIX remains under pressure, within the November bear trend, with the close below the July 2014 trendline putting pressure on the 10.28 year low of July 2014. Falling studies anticipate extension to psychological support at 10.00, with potential for further losses to the 9.70 year low of February 2007. Still lower is the 9.39 year low of December 2006, but already oversold stochastics studies suggest downside tests could become progressively more difficult to maintain. Critical contract lows at the 8.89 low of December 1993 should underpin any immediate tests, as prices settle into volatile consolidation. Resistance is lowered to the 13.28 high of 19 January, but a close above the 14.72 high of December 2016 is needed to improve price action and promote stability/trend change.
TVC:VIX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
Hershey's CoCo Sector Report - January 28, 2017Materials and Finance both started the week flat, moved up for a couple days, then remained steady on Friday while the US and World markets were down. If the US and World indexes are up next week I expect much from these two! Real Estate and Consumer Staples (Non-Cyclical) were the clear Sector losers taking back all the gains they made early in the week to finish weak. Materials had over 60 stocks > 5% for the week... compare that with Real Estate that had only 9! Good trading! Brian Hershey ***************************** Check out my "Hershey's CoCo World" indicator, available now for your US stock and sector evaluations. "CoCo World" helps to answer the following question: Is this stock moving alone or with the US and world markets? No stock is an island, so it's important to see what everyone else is doing. Useful across all time frames, small and packed with info!
AMEX:XLB
by bnh
1
US equities SPX losing background bullish momentumUS Equities remain at elevated levels, with focus on the 2300 psychological barrier and (150%) projection of the 2015-2016 fall. Extension towards the 2332, (161.8%) retracement cannot be ruled out as the Tension Indicator, not shown, continues to strengthen, but overbought stochastics and weakening background readings are expected to make gains progressively difficult to sustain and promote profit-taking pressure into the coming months. A close below 2200 would turn investors cautious once again, and open up further losses to congestion around 2100. A close below the 2083.79 low of November, however, would add weight to price action, and signal a deeper reaction towards congestion around 2000.
TVC:SPX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK