NSPR Could Be Deep Value Comeback StoryI wrote an extensive piece on NSPR in which I go into depth on the company and the potential turnaround story, you can find it here: rockvuecapital.wordpress.com
Trading at a 77% discount to book value, an 81% discount to sales, an 81% discount to NCAV, and a 43% discount to net cash, NSPR is roadkill in the market. However, no matter how great the value may seem, it does nothing for us if the price action doesn't coincide with our thesis. For this reason we must take into consideration the chart. As you can see from the chart, there is tremendous amounts of consolidation at the 0.76 to .60 price channel. In an effort to focus more on the price action, I am looking for a breakout from that 0.76 price level. If that breakout happens, it could signal the bullish thesis I laid out. A more convincing price action would be a breakout above the 50 MA. I am content to wait on this one and wait for the price action to confirm my entry.
Usequities
VIX showing signs of strength into the coming monthsThere are further signs of bullish trend development in the VIX.
Prices are now trading above congestion around 15.00 as momentum studies post positive divergence and continue to strengthen. The proprietary Tension Indicator (not shown) is also improving.
In the coming months, expectations are for higher levels to attract, with focus turning to congestion around 20.00 and the 20.20, (23.6%) Fibonacci retracement of the August-February fall. A close above the 23.01 high of November 2016 is needed, however, to confirm a fresh rally, with subsequent gains opening up the 26.50, (38.2%) Fibonacci retracement and the 26.72 high of June.
A close below the 9.97 low of February would add fresh downside pressure to price action and target critical support at the 9.39 contract lows of 2006. An unexpected break would confirm fresh downside tests as the 2015 bear trend gains fresh traction.
VIX under pressure, but close to critical supportsThe VIX remains under pressure, within the November bear trend, with the close below the July 2014 trendline putting pressure on the 10.28 year low of July 2014.
Falling studies anticipate extension to psychological support at 10.00, with potential for further losses to the 9.70 year low of February 2007. Still lower is the 9.39 year low of December 2006, but already oversold stochastics studies suggest downside tests could become progressively more difficult to maintain.
Critical contract lows at the 8.89 low of December 1993 should underpin any immediate tests, as prices settle into volatile consolidation.
Resistance is lowered to the 13.28 high of 19 January, but a close above the 14.72 high of December 2016 is needed to improve price action and promote stability/trend change.
Hershey's CoCo Sector Report - January 28, 2017Materials and Finance both started the week flat, moved up for a couple days, then remained steady on Friday while the US and World markets were down. If the US and World indexes are up next week I expect much from these two!
Real Estate and Consumer Staples (Non-Cyclical) were the clear Sector losers taking back all the gains they made early in the week to finish weak.
Materials had over 60 stocks > 5% for the week... compare that with Real Estate that had only 9!
Good trading!
Brian Hershey
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Check out my "Hershey's CoCo World" indicator, available now for your US stock and sector evaluations.
"CoCo World" helps to answer the following question: Is this stock moving alone or with the US and world markets? No stock is an island, so it's important to see what everyone else is doing. Useful across all time frames, small and packed with info!
US equities SPX losing background bullish momentumUS Equities remain at elevated levels, with focus on the 2300 psychological barrier and (150%) projection of the 2015-2016 fall.
Extension towards the 2332, (161.8%) retracement cannot be ruled out as the Tension Indicator, not shown, continues to strengthen, but overbought stochastics and weakening background readings are expected to make gains progressively difficult to sustain and promote profit-taking pressure into the coming months.
A close below 2200 would turn investors cautious once again, and open up further losses to congestion around 2100. A close below the 2083.79 low of November, however, would add weight to price action, and signal a deeper reaction towards congestion around 2000.
SPX pressuring Fibonacci projection at 2225~The pop higher in the SPX has reached the 2225, (76.4%) projection of the Feb-Jun rally.
Next resistance is likely to be around 2250, but any break should fade beneath the 2300~, (100%) projection.
Facebook remains under long term pressureThe sharp rejection of the October highs is attempting to stabilise above USD113.00.
Consolidation is highlighted in the coming week or so, but the fall in momentum studies and deterioration in sentiment are likely to keep prices under pressure into the beginning of 2017Q1.
Also, from a relative perspective, Facebook is also underperforming the US Technology Sector, which itself is Underperforming the S&P500. This double filter also highlights downside risks into the coming months.
DOW keeps blasting higherWe officially elected the key Socrates monthly bullish level at 18625 for November. Now watching for a pullback to this level to jump in and add to my mini position. Major resistance bank awaits at 20764-21252
Cup and Handle Pattern forming on WMBGood risk reward on this cup and handle pattern forming on WMB. It also doesn't hurt that Goldman Sachs gave a buy rating yesterday
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (Short-Term View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (All-Time View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
SPY/VXX Ratio 4/18/2016 (Short-Term View)This is for you all stock market bears. Do not go short if this ratio keeps on breaking those resistance lines.
SPY/VXX Ratio 4/18/2016 (All-Time View)This is for you all stock market bears. Do not go short if this ratio keeps on breaking those resistance lines.
SPX/VIX/Gold Ratio 4/15/2016This is the the ultimate market measure of economic/financial well-being.
Inverse Gold/Short S&P 500 Ratio 4/15/2016 (Short-Term View)Watch the lines. This chart tells us how much/how urgently people are selling stocks to buy gold.
Inverse Gold/Short S&P 500 Ratio 4/15/2016 (All-Time View)Watch the lines. This chart tells us how much/how urgently people are selling stocks to buy gold.
S&P 500/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (Short-Term Non-Log View)Watch the lines for a good place to jump in if you are looking to long VIX. This chart helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes.
S&P 500/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (All-Time Non-Log View)Watch the lines for a good place to jump in if you are looking to long VIX. This chart helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes.
SPX/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (Short-term View)Instead of looking at SPX alone, looking at this ratio is better for shorting stocks/longing VIX, because it helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes. Watch the black/light blue/brown lines above. If this ratio breaks above those lines confidently, get out of shorts and wait for a better time to do so.
SPX/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (All-time View)Instead of looking at SPX alone, looking at this ratio is better for shorting stocks/longing VIX, because it helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes. Watch the black/light blue/brown lines above. If this ratio breaks above those lines confidently, get out of shorts and wait for a better time to do so.
