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Return To BaseA "back to the basics" analysis. Let's leave behind the stock markets and look at the slow and deep fundamentals of the worldwide economy. Today I will attempt to make a simple analysis using GDP. This is the net profit of one country. The miracle of China caught the West in the sleep. It outperformed the largest economy of the world. And by incredible speeds. Many use the "stochastic" indicator, and rightfully so. The word stochastic may be coming from the Greek word "stochasmos" which means "thought process". To get a new perspective on these charts we must let nature think for us objectively. The mind of nature spoke. The miracle of China is fading. And the same happens when compared to the "treasure" called Taiwan. Many are willing to fight for it. For experimentation, let's compare the US with the Eurozone. For some unknown-to-me reason, GDP has embedded in it the relative strength of currencies between the two countries. Do note that all GDP is measured in USD. In a sense, relative GDP growth is another way of comparing currency strength. We have gone from comparing equities, to comparing GDP. We concluded that comparing GDP is simply comparing purchasing power of two countries. Currency strength comes from yield rates. The power is given from those who make and define money. Supply + Yields. Power = Money Supply * Money Strength MV = PQ Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. You want to see an Easter Egg? Consider the following equations: MV = PQ Q = GDP M = M2SL V = FRED:M2V P = "price level" 1 / P = "currency strength" Currency Strength = Q / MV In the end, it is up to the FED to decide the future.
FRED:GDP
by akikostas
NZD/USD Rebounds Above 0.6150 on Mixed NZ DataThe NZD/USD currency pair has rebounded above the 0.6150 level, breaking its two-day downtrend at a six-week low. The recent rise in the Kiwi pair is largely attributed to the mixed catalysts at home, along with the broad weakness in the US dollar. The upcoming US Q1 GDP release is crucial for NZD/USD traders to watch. The market expects the GDP to ease to 2.0% on an annualized basis versus 2.6% prior. The recent hawkish concerns about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are expected to recede if the US Q1 GDP prints downbeat figures, which would support the Kiwi pair's latest recovery. 👉 The mixed catalysts, including the negative ANZ sentiment figures and the US-China tension, could further weigh on the Kiwi currency. Therefore, traders could consider a sell signal with an entry price around 0.6140, a take profit level around 0.6000, and a stop loss above 0.6160. TRADE IDEA DETAILS Currency Pair: NZD/USD Current Trend: Bearish Trade Signal: ↘️Sell 👍Entry Price: Around 0.6140 ✅Take Profit: Around 0.6000 ❌Stop Loss: Above resistance at 0.6160 Additionally, the mixed ANZ sentiment figures for April, along with the plummeting Business Confidence in New Zealand, could weigh on the Kiwi currency. Moreover, fears of a US recession, the banking sector fallout, and the US-China tension could also lead to a risk-off sentiment, which could benefit the US Dollar. #ForexTrading #NZDUSD #MarketAnalysis #TradeSignals
Short
by RichDadph-FX
1
Yen extends gains on US GDP declineUSD/JPY continues to fall as the Japanese yen rally continues. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 133.26, down 0.72%. Thursday's US GDP for Q1 was weaker than expected, as the -0.9% reading surprised the markets, which had projected a 0.5% gain. There was plenty of discussion about the soft GDP report, not so much that it underperformed, but rather over the question of whether the US was currently in a recession after two straight quarters of negative growth (GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter). Technically, a recession is widely defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, strategists in the Biden White House have been in emergency mode trying to spin the GDP release and avoid the "R" word at all costs. Optics are always crucial to politicians, and with mid-term elections in a few months, the Democrats don't want to see the phrase "US in recession!" plastered in the media and are aruging that there are other methods of defining a recession, which of course, according to them, don't apply to current economic conditions. However one chooses to define an economic recession, there's no arguing that the US economy is closer to a recession after the GDP release, and that may lead to the Federal Reserve easing up on future rate hikes. The markets seem to think that is the case, even though runaway inflation hasn't gone anywhere. Wall Street is sharply higher, risk appetite has returned and the US dollar finds itself in full retreat. In Japan, today's data was mixed. Tokyo Core CPI for June rose to 2.3% YoY, up from 2.1% and above the estimate of 2.2%. Retail sales, however, fell sharply to 1.5% YoY in June, down from 3.7% and shy of the 2.8% estimate. Still, the yen has posted strong gains today as the dollar continues to struggle.  USD/JPY continues to lose ground and is testing support at 133.53. Below, there is support at 131.50 There is resistance at 134.81, followed by 136.84
by OANDA
Euro rattled as Fed sends hawkish messageWhat started off as a calm week has turned into a rout. The euro is down 0.83% in the North American session and has fallen into 1.11 territory for the first time since June 2020. The currency has taken a nasty spill this week, falling a massive 1.73%. The markets are still buzzing over the hawkish Fed meeting, which has overshadowed today's stellar US GDP report. GDP for Q4 expanded by 6.9%, exceeding the consensus of 5.5% and up from 2.3% in Q3. The GDP Price Index came in at 7.0%, beating the forecast of 6.0%. The stellar data points to a strong US economy despite the Omicron wave and has contributed to the US dollar's rally. The Fed had a hawkish message for the markets, sending equities lower but boosting the US dollar. Fed Chair Powell was careful not to get pinned down on a timeline for rate hikes, although the markets are betting on a  March lift-off. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a 25-bps hike stands at 83%, with a 50-bps move increasing to 16%. The Fed was also vague about a date for reducing the balance sheet, with the FOMC statement noting that the reduction would start after the benchmark rate is increased. Powell sounded hawkish during his press conference after the meeting, and as a result, equities were falling and US Treasury yields were rising as he was talking. Powell said that inflation risks remain to the upside in his view, and there is a risk that high inflation will be prolonged and could move even higher. The 10-year yield rose to 1.83% and moved slightly higher today before retreating. Powell has been walking a tightrope, trying to assure markets that the Fed will bring inflation back below 2%, without being overly aggressive in tightening, which could cause a recession. Based on the panicky reaction from the financial markets after the Fed meeting, the Fed Chair has more work to do in reassuring the markets that the Fed is on the right path. EUR/USD continues to break below support lines and is testing below 1.1226. Below, there is support at 1.1152 There is resistance at 1.1359 and 1.1418
by OANDA
EURUSD heads to 1.1880 key resistance ahead of US GDPThe post-Fed rally of EURUSD pokes a two-week-old resistance line as bulls brace for the preliminary figures of the US Q2 GDP, up for publishing later today. While the stimulus news and FOMC constitute a double whammy attack on the US dollar, suggesting the upside of the adjacent hurdle near 1.1860, bulls are likely to remain unconvinced until the quote stays below 1.1880, comprising multiple levels marked since June 22. The same 1.1880 level also forms the breakout of rounding top bullish pattern and the confirmation of the same will not hesitate to challenge the late June’s peak surrounding 1.1975. Meanwhile, pullback moves can re-test the 1.1800 threshold but the mid-July lows near 1.1770 will challenge any further weakness. Also acting as the downside filter is the monthly bottom close to 1.1750, a break of which will direct EURUSD sellers to the yearly low of 1.1704. It’s worth observing that the pair’s recovery moves reach the key levels but the RSI is also approaching the overbought territory, suggesting another pullback should the data renew USD buying.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Swiss franc claws up to 90 line on US GDPThe Swiss franc is up for a second straight day. In North American trade, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9000, up 0.24% on the day. The Swiss franc has made strong inroads in recent weeks against a US dollar which continues to struggle. The dollar posted sharp gains in the first quarter, but has reversed directions. Since April 1, USD/CHF is down 4.8% and has surrendered most of the gains accrued in Q1. The Swiss central bank (SNB) does not want to see the Swiss franc continue to appreciate, since a higher-valued Swiss franc makes Swiss exports more expensive. The SNB also prefers to see limited movement from the Swissie, so that price movement remains muted.  The SNB has been actively purchasing US dollars in order to prevent the exchange rate from continuing to rise. However, with the US dollar showing prolonged weakness and the Federal Reserve insisting that it will not tighten policy anytime soon, the SNB may have a tough time trying to prevent the Swissie from appreciating further. The US released a data dump earlier in the day. The results were mixed and the dollar edged lower, as the Swiss franc has clawed back up the symbolic 90-level. US second-estimate GDP came in at 6.4%, confirming the initial read but shy of the forecast of 6.5%. Headline durable goods slowed to 1.0%, down from 1.6%. Core Durable goods surprised with a decline of 1.3%, down from +0.5% and much worse than the consensus of +0.8%. On the employment front, US jobless claims dropped to 406 thousand, down from 444 thousand. In Switzerland, the trade balance fell to CHF3.82 billion, down from CHF5.7 billion and shy of the forecast of CHF4.2 billion. USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9033 and 0.9087. On the downside, there is weak support at 0.8939. Below, there is support at 0.8899
by OANDA
S&P to GDP shows the Bull Market is far from overThis is a simple study where I use the SPX to GDP ratio on the log scale in an attempt to determine how far (on the long-term) the current post-COVID sell-off rally can go. As you see the ratio is within a Channel Up since 1971 with clear Higher Highs and Higher Lows. I used the Fibonacci Channel to identify the pressure points and as you see the 0.382 - 0.618 zone is of high volatility, monopolizing the price action most of the time. The chart shows that we shouldn't expect a (long-term) bear cycle before the price either hits the Higher High trend-line or roughly completes a 410% rise. Do you agree? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
SP:SPXLong
by TradingShot
7