US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analysis(What we need to know)!Today, I want to analyze the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) for you in the weekly time frame . In fact, the US 10-Year Government Bonds shows the yield rate of ten-year US Treasury bonds and is a measure of investors' confidence in the US economy . As such, this index influences capital allocation across various markets and impacts broader financial conditions .
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The US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) started its upward trend after COVID-19 . After breaking the Important Resistance line and 200_SMA(Monthly) , we can hope for the continuation of US10Y's upward trend. (The Important Resistance line started in 1981 , so it was very important.)
According to the Elliott wave theory , US10Y seems to be completing main wave 4 , so main wave 3 was of the Extended type . If the upper line of the descending channel breaks, we can be more sure of the end of main wave 4.
I expect US10Y to rise at least as wide as the descending channel width and up to the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) after the descending channel break , completing the main wave 5 . If the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) is broken, we can expect a further increase in US10Y .
Now let's see if the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) increases , what will be the effect on other assets?
Impact of Rising 10-Year Bond Yields on Key Assets:
Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) and Other Cryptocurrencies : As bond yields increase, riskier assets like Bitcoin may face downward pressure. Investors are often drawn to safer investments, such as bonds, when yields rise, making cryptocurrencies less attractive.
Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) : Higher bond yields usually put pressure on gold prices. Since gold does not offer any yield, a rising yield on bonds increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, causing a potential decline in its price.
U.S. Stocks : Rising bond yields can lead to lower stock values, particularly in riskier sectors like tech. Higher bond yields often translate into increased borrowing costs, impacting growth and profitability, especially for companies that rely heavily on credit.
US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Weekly time frame⏰.
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Usgovernmentbonds
US10Y held the 1D MA200 and is starting a new rallyThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below):
Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023 and test initially the previous Higher High of the 2-year Channel Up.
Our Target is slightly below at 5.000%.
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US10Y Touched its 1D MA50. Time to rebound?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below):
Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the new Higher High.
As a result, we are bullish as long as it closes the 1D candles above it, with our 5.000% Target intact.
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$US10Y -Important Close *Weekly- US 10 Years Government Bonds(Yield) TVC:US10Y experienced a pull back in the fourth
week of August,
after having rallied previously for five (5) consecutive Weeks,
printing only green *W candlesticks.
The Weekly pullback retraced to a Weekly price level of 4.09% for $U10Y
(key level marked on dashed green line)
We can clearly see TVC:DXY being dragged higher as well during Yields uptrend
(indicating a weak and fearful state of other Major Financial Markets).
Seen on Weekly Timeframe, we can easily spot a triangle pattern being formed
on $US10Y.
Triangle Pattern's Apex can be stretched as far as 238Days from where it
currently is.
In case Pattern is violated to the downside,
a considerable Support-Resistance zone lays just underneath dating back
ever since 1912.
Below that would be the catching up dynamic support of 200EMA on the Weekly,
as well the support-trendline coming from Pandemic Lows.
TVC:US10Y uptrend resumption seems very likely from here,
especially after bouncing at the key level marked on dashed green line.
What is more important to be monitored is the correlation of TVC:DXY going higher
in the same time with TVC:US10Y .
That would be a nightmare scenario for an investor, and a golden opportunity
for those who are on the sidelines and waiting to be heavily invested
in diversification .
US10Y Extremely overbought on Bearish Divergence. Sell longterm?The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is having the first red month (1M) after rising non-stop since May. It has been on extremely overbought levels for the last 12 months as the price established itself above the multi-decade Bearish Megaphone pattern, the same way it was oversold below it following the March 2020 COVID crash. As you know the price quickly corrected back inside the Bearish Megaphone in a pure technical harmonization process of the extreme levels.
Technically it should follow a similar reversal now again, as the most important technical development of the year is October's Lower Highs formation on the 1M RSI. This is a huge Bearish Divergence as the price during the same period is trading on Higher Highs. The same kind of Bearish Divergence has only been spotted another two times in the last +40 years. On both occasions, an aggressive decline started. As a result it is only natural to expect a 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test before 2024 is over, which right now is a huge early sell signal.
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Gold vs. U.S. TreasuriesThe rest of the world is no longer accepting U.S. policymakers being fiscally irresponsible. China has started dumping U.S. treasuries. Other countries like following suit or are going to. Unless U.S. Politicians prove they are willing to reduce expenditures and shrink the deficit, the world is not going to be buying U.S. debt. They are stockpiling Gold until a new risk-free asset can be decided by the open market. The U.S. politicians got greedy and sadly, the American people are going to have to pay for their mistakes.
Us Government Bonds 10 yr yield Looking for a bullish continuation to the upside long term. What Does the 10-Year Treasury Yield Mean? The 10-year Treasury yield is the yield that the government pays investors that purchase the specific security. Purchase of the 10-year note is essentially a loan made to the U.S. government.
US10Y The 1D MA50 is the key. So far rejected.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 5 days ago (4H time-frame):
Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price has started rising since the December 07 Low, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). So far this is quite similar to the early August rise. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low.
In order to extend selling the US10Y, we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (October 21 High) Resistance. So far the 1D MA50 seems to get rejected.
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US10Y Inflation has peaked according to the bond yieldsThis is a critical update on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. This is a technically bearish formation that we typically see on market tops with a reversal following. It gets even stronger considering the fact that the Head of the formation hit (and got rejected on) the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Megaphone pattern that the market has been trading is since 2013.
There is however a possibility of not dropping to a correction before one last test of the Higher Highs as it happened both on mid 2018 and the September 2013 H&S patterns. As a result, we should approach this in terms of Resistance and Support break-outs. Above the Resistance, expect one last Higher Highs test, below the Support expect a plunge towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
But why is this US10Y top formation pattern so important and what does it have to do with the Inflation Rate (red trend-line)? Well as you see within this 9 period price action, the two symbols are very correlated. In fact, every time the US10Y hit the top of its Megaphone pattern, Inflation peaked and started to follow the US10Y lower on its correction.
As a result we can say that this is the first indication we've had in a long time that the raging inflation that started in May 2020, may finally be getting under control. If so, this could be the ideal time to get back into stock buying as early as possible.
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Was the U.S. & China Involved in Bitcoin Price Suppression?Today let's take a look at something I've uncovered regarding top bitcoin hodl'ers, price suppression, and ...is this a bullish indicator for bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a whole?
TradingView Peeps. House rules state that I cannot provide any links in this description. In fact, I cannot even hint at where you may be able to find them. So... I don't know?
Are bonds ready for a bounce?Bond have fallen a lot and quite fast. The sentiment is really stretched and most expect yields to rise more (bonds to fall lower). In my opinion there is quite a decent chance the bond bull market is over given that we had a massive blow off top in March 2020, but this doesn't mean that I don't see a potential bounce here or even bottom. Bonds hit key support, swept the lows before the big move up and are no showing signs of life.
When I see so much debt, when I see slow growth and all the bad things going on around us... I don't think we'll get huge inflation any time soon. To me this is cyclical inflation after a supply shock rather than anything else. Many other yields are decreasing and spreads are the tightest they've been in years, so why would bonds go much lower? The Fed has failed to meet its inflation target for years, but they are going to make it now? We are also post the SLR cliff that could had been the 'sell the rumour buy the news event'
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YELD GROWINGBond markets have experienced a strong movement this week with the U.S. Federal Reserve saying it expects higher economic growth and inflation in the United States this year, although it repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero. Yields on U.S. 10-year have been rising for the past seven weeks on growth expectations, spiked to their highest since January 2020 at 1.754% on Thursday. They eased to 1.6838% on Friday.
The SEB analysts said they expected the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to hit 2% this year
US10Y: Consolidation leading to 0.900 - 0.950.The 10 YR Yield is posting the first red 1D candle after a strong bullish streak of 5 candles. The 1D chart turned bullish (RSI = 64.680, MACD = 0.012, ADX = 28.379) after 2 months. Assuming the 1D MA50 supports, the price may find enough momentum to consolidate in order to post the final push towards the 0.955 Resistance. Attention is needed as the 1D RSI is waving a bearish flag (only indicator to do so), so keep stops tight.
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TLT LongTLT has pulled back to a very key trend line with additonal supports coming in below. On the hourly chart, we have positive divergence on TLT meaning we should see upside soon in the short term. Given the postures of the markets and how treasuries act as a flight to safety asset, it is reasonable to assume they will go up in price as stocks fall.
For this trade, I advise picking up TMF (x3 leverage) with a stop anywhere from 28.00 to 26.60. I also recommend scaling into the position with 2 or 3 batches comprising your total allocation that you are willing to invest.
US 10YR: Time to buy Bonds.Regardless of the fundamentals that are dominating the global economic scene (trade wars), there is an interesting long term, and rather cyclical from the looks of it, pattern developing on the U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield.
The pattern is a declining Head and Shoulders formation on 1W. The last two times that the same pattern emerged (in 2017 and in 2015 - 2016) the price broke higher very aggressively, surpassing the peak/ head of the formation. In 2017 the patterns duration was around 280 days while in 2015/2016 around 460 days. We are currently on the 360th day of the running pattern. Purely from a long term technical perspective it may be the right time investing in these bonds.
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US GOVERMENT BONDS (US10Y) Reached Top (Crash Incoming)You can expect at least a 10% drop for the US10Y in the coming weeks and months, but most likely stronger.
The bearish divergence is very strong and it is showing up on both the MACD and RSI. The decent has already started.
Looks like the entire conventional market is about to have a massive crash. Time to move to crypto.
Thanks a lot for reading.
Namaste.