Macro View Shows 2-4 Month Max And Then It Starts!Traders,
Some rather ominous signs are showing in various markets not least of which includes the U.S. housing market. As you know, we have been periodically tracking the USHMI as a key leading indicator to show us where and when our coming U.S. (perhaps global) recession begins. We are close if we have not already begun, but I imagine there will be no ability for denial in about 2-4 months time. Before then, markets may continue to blow off and I still expect Bitcoin to hit our 85k target. Today we'll review our USHMI chart along with other key charts for further clues mapping future trajectory.
USHMI
The Fed Conundrum and the Housing Market CollapseThe Fed money tightening policies are using interest-rates as a lever to fix a balance sheet problem.
Higher rates feed right back into the CPI, initiating the doom loop.
After the financial crisis of 2008, The Fed employed a policy action to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 0-0.25% for seven-(7) years, during which time the CPI fell.
Post-pandemic (COVID), the CPI is 97% correlated to the Fed balance sheet.
Looking historically, in 1980's, the Fed Rate was ~19% (real rate was 8%). Compared to today, the Fed Rate is under 3% and Real Fed Rate is at -6%.
Folks already crying about a 3% Fed Rate.
A colossal policy error in the making, or is everything going "according to plan"?