DOW waiting for bearish correction to completeHi traders:
Looking at DJI for the bearish reversal in the up coming days/week.
Overall looking at the price action, we see DOW has hit the all time double tops, and price is showing reversal price action on the LTF.
Price had a push up, but failed to continue higher with any bullish correction.
Instead, we see a short bearish push down from that area, and a correction begin to form.
Key here is to not jump in right away, rather wait for price to develop and structure to complete for the sell.
Thank you
Usindices
NASDAQ RALLY TO CONTINUE?IM jumping back in us100 as i expect it to spike on dollar fall at some point this week. head and shoulders reversal on 30m
$SPX - It formed a Symmetrical triangleHello everyone!
When the world goes lockdown on Wave 2, the US remains in lockdown since March, and guess what, it was a pretty damn good March to November for the US Indices.
Despite losses in major fields, tech companies showed significant growth and revenue, pharmaceutical companies were on the spot as well, and in general despite DXY dropping since then, SPX for example pumped up higher than ever this year, so I'm guessing if we are going to see more surprises in the market.
From the technical point of view, I think the wave count might be incorrect because of the curve-shaped previous impulse, though looks perfect to me, but in general the direction is right.
SPX is about to break out of the triangle and move towards new highs, which I'm guessing could be 3600. Though before we get super excited and place long on SPX here, I'd highly recommend to see the next actions inside the triangle.
S&P-500 - will there be Monday panic before elections?Very important how US indices will close today. All week long we had a non-stop selling , and if today we get the close at the lows (ideally close to support line), I would not be surprised to see strong follow through on Monday as well, even gap lower and limit down maybe.
Prices often continue trending on Mondays in the same direction as Friday close. So given it will be 1 day before most important and unpredictable elections in recent history (and I am not even speaking COVID here), a lot of investors might decide to rush for the way out all at once, especially, if today is another ugly day in the making...
U.S S&P 500 index a boo?U.S S&P 500 Index.
- Retraced from its sideways resistant.
- Broken down below its Mid Term Trend.
- Its next 5 days crucial reversal zone will be important to take note.
- A break down below this zone will also mean breaking down below its Long Term Trend (Red Line) will spark a Bear Market.
- A recovery above this zone and above its Mid Term Trend = Super Bull Run remains intact.
NASDAQ - WEEKLY PREDICTIONA lot going on here, both technically and fundamentally. Any trades taken will look to move stops to entry for risk free trading ASAP given the volatility of election season and Covid resurgence. We cannot control any fundamentals, but we can control our risk management.
Firstly, on the weekly we can note the potential wick rejections forming a Double Top.
Drilling down to the Daily, we can see the descending channel and also the current area is very much a no trade zone where price needs to decide it's next move.
Close below support and grey zone on the daily see's sells to the red line, next support.
Buys on break of the channel and both near term fib levels to retest the 61.8% fib and daily resistance.
NASDAQ - WEEKLY OUTLOOKTECHNICAL POINTS:
4HR resistance
4hr Fib
Daily fib (50% lines up with 4hr resistance)
Daily support
4hr Head and shoulders
Buys:
Close above 4hr resistance invalidating H&S
Sells:
Wait for rejection around 11,400 in line with left shoulder. Failing that, break of the neckline.
Nasdaq - Trade opportunity! Short term trade idea:
Pattern wise within Nasdaq - Double bottom, measuring it comes to 38.2 Retracement of Fibs which is matches nicely key retracement area.
Above 11270 Area bullish with the resistance areas of: 11480 - 11560 - Target area for double bottom = 11815 - 12000 area.
Below 11085 Area Bears could come in control with key support areas of: 10930 - 10711
Medium term: I am bearish US Indices, Precious Metals, EUR, AUD, NZD - This would be a counter trend move, please use appropriate risk management.
Target for EUR - Low ends of 1.16 to 1.15 area to position for longer term EUR target of 1.22/1.25
All the best,
Trade Journal
Remember: Just a trade idea, not a recommendation.
NASDAQ - WEEKLY OUTLOOKTechnical:
Weekly Fib
4hr Fib
4hr Descending Channel
4hr Double Bottom
200ema as ceiling
Buy Entry:
Descending channel broken on 4hr
Break and close above both 23.6% fib levels
Close above 200 4hr EMA
Confirmation of double bottom if price breaks previous lower high @ 11,200.
Target 61.8% 4hr fib for around 500 points
Sell Entry:
Close back below both 23.6% Fib levels
This will also confirm structure with another lower high
4hr channel holding
Targets - -23.6% fib on 4hr as well as the 800 4hr EMA for around 600 points.
US30/DJ30 Weekly OutlookTechnical:
Daily ascending trendline
Weekly fib
4hr fib
4hr descending channel
Buy Entry:
Close above 78.6% weekly fib level
Close above 23.6% 4hr fib level
Close above 27,500 breaking LH/LL structure
Break of descending channel
Target - 4hr 61.8% Fib for around 600 points
Sell Entry:
Break of daily ascending trendline
Close back below both fib levels
Target - 4hr -23.6% fib for around 600 points
SP500 WEEKLY OUTLOOKTechnical:
Weekly Fib plotted
Daily support area
Falling wedge
4hr Fib plotted
Entry Buy:
Break of channel
Close above 4hr 23.6% Fib
Close above Key 3300 level
Target - 4hr 61.8% FIb level around 40 points
Entry Sell:
Channel holding
Close below weekly 23.6% Fib
Close below daily support
Close below 3200
Target - Weekly 38.2% Fib around 100 points
NASDAQ 100 at key levelPrice is now consolidating below the key 11000. If we look at Elliott wave analysis, this should be the top. However, this summer showed the exuberance of greed and addition of retail traders like Robinhood, shifted the balance making retail trading almost 25% of all trading in the world. So while I am still advocating for a tech bubble burst, it may come later. Still appropriate to look for reverse patterns on 1 and 4 hour charts. A break of 11000 and close of the daily candle would indicate further buying momentum. This year has been truly astonishing.
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Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
NASDAQ Divergence on the Daily chartTake a look at the divergence that happened in February 2020. Well that same divergence has happened once again in a similar scale so we can expect a similar type of sell off. Not to mention how overbought the Nasdaq is doing, many will take this as a sign to take their profits.
DOW JONES Trading planPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bullish on every dashed line.
Target: The two Resistance levels 26,790 and 27,640.
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S&P500 outlookSeems like wave B was finally over, now we are waiting for the continuation lower. Price near a strong 3000 level. Best to wait for more price action and wait for Europe session to open tomorrow as price expected to gap lower on the open and volatility will make it harder to point a good entry.
As Central Banks and financial institutions cut the economic forecast this week a bit of realism returned to the markets as they noticed how bad things actually are. We shall see if there will be response in the form of more stimulus offered by the Central Banks to push the stocks back up.
Please support the idea and share your thoughts on S&P500!
Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
S&P500 weekly analysisThis week we saw the worst day for equities since March as S&P500 lost almost 8% from the high of 3233 down to 2982. Aggressive sell off happened on the rising fears of the second wave of COVID-19 in USA as more states are declaring record numbers of new cases. Also, Fed chairman Jerome Powell was quite pessimistic in his economic forecast for the next few years, suggesting potential permanent damage to the economy. All these fears triggered a sell off in indices across the board.
On the technical side Elliott waves show the end of wave (I) since the crash in March. We see a solid 12345 formation with appropriate sub waves in each one. Wave (I) was finished as wave v completed the 5th wave. The sell of was the start of wave (II), which is usually very sharp as we see here. It comes as the FOMO (fear of missing out) is over and those that caught wave (I) cashed in their profits and sold. Wave (II) is an ABC formation. Wave A seems complete in an 12345 formation, finding support just below 3000 and right on 200SMA on a 4-hour chart. If this is indeed the end of wave A, then we should see B wave forming now, potential to retrace at least to 61.8% and 50SMA at around 3120. As a rule, wave B can go up almost to the highs though.
End of wave (II) is always the start of the biggest rally in Elliott waves as all traders who missed wave (I) aggressively buy in a massive FOMO to get the next rally. This indicates that potentially we could see a V shaped recovery as the market climbs in wave (III). With financial institutions across the globe continuously adding more stimulus and pumping it into equities market, there is a high probability for a V-shaped move. Now 2960 is strong support as it was a high near wave 3, where price ranged for almost a month before breaking higher. Most traders will be crossing fingers for a sharp spike from here in hope that the market is done with a correction already and will go to all time highs from here. Let us see if Greed is stronger than Fear.
Considering the massive hit that the world economy took, stock market stimulus is the only thing that keeps the financial system from collapsing and the financial institutions are extremely aggressive as countries keep pumping money into the financial system. They learnt from 2008 crash, though such stimulus is creating a huge risk for fiat currencies to lose all value with such heavy printing. With US elections in November Mr. Trump needs the market to climb back up to have a shot at second term and of course to cash in on the market move if he fails in the campaign.
As a counter argument, this is only one potential count of the S&P500 chart. There is an alternative suggesting that March sell off was in fact a wave A and that the recent rally was wave B. If that is true, then Wave C down is what is coming next. That is of course the opinion of many ‘fatalistic’ economists and traders that always see more bears than bulls. But it does not minimise the validity of their argument that a potential slump further is possible, especially with a lot of uncertainty regarding the future development of the world economy.
S&P500: Sell opportunity on the 1D MA50 rejection.On our last trading set-up we mentioned the potential that the Channel Down could be wider and since the 4H MA50 broke, the pattern would fill in a Lower High near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement:
Right now we use the 1D chart (RSI = 52.588, MACD = -25.640, ADX = 24.177) and see that the recent stochastic run is being exhausted (STOCH = 83.359, STOCHRSI = 72.755). The reason is the 1D MA50 which is adding high selling pressure on the Lower High trend line of the Channel Down.
We are therefore now turning into medium term selling with our Targets being the Supports: 2,450 and 2,200 respectively.
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