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NZDUSD Analysis for 16/10/2024: Slight Bullish Bias ExpectedIntroduction As of 16th October 2024, the NZDUSD (New Zealand Dollar vs. US Dollar) pair shows a slight bullish bias in today’s trading session. A combination of fundamental factors, economic data releases, and market sentiment are all playing a pivotal role in driving this price action. In this article, we will break down the key drivers for the potential bullish trend in NZDUSD today, with a focus on the latest developments in the global economy, central bank policies, and market conditions. Key Drivers for NZDUSD Bullish Bias 1. New Zealand Economic Data Strength One of the primary factors contributing to the slight bullish bias in NZDUSD is the recent release of positive economic data from New Zealand. Key indicators such as GDP growth and retail sales have come in stronger than expected, supporting the NZD. The New Zealand economy continues to exhibit resilience despite global challenges, and this has attracted investors towards the Kiwi dollar. In the latest report, New Zealand’s consumer sentiment index showed improvement, reflecting increased consumer confidence. This suggests that domestic demand is picking up, which is supportive of the New Zealand Dollar’s strength. As a result, this economic optimism is likely to boost NZDUSD. 2. RBNZ Hawkish Stance The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, signaling a possible interest rate hike in the near future to combat inflation. Although inflation remains elevated globally, New Zealand’s inflation figures are closely monitored by the RBNZ, and the central bank is prepared to act if needed. A potential rate hike would increase the attractiveness of the NZD in the forex market. The US Federal Reserve, by contrast, is leaning towards a more neutral stance, with expectations that interest rates may have peaked for the time being. This divergence in monetary policy between the RBNZ and the Federal Reserve is providing support to NZDUSD, as a more hawkish RBNZ outlook favors the New Zealand Dollar. 3. US Dollar Weakness On the other side of the equation, the US Dollar has experienced some softness amid mixed economic data and shifting market sentiment. The recent US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report showed inflation cooling, reducing the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. As inflation shows signs of easing, investors are beginning to price in the possibility of a Fed pause, which has led to USD weakness. Additionally, political uncertainty in the US, particularly related to fiscal policy and government shutdown risks, is weighing on the USD. The combination of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve and domestic uncertainty is making the US Dollar less attractive, boosting the NZDUSD pair. 4. Global Risk Sentiment Risk sentiment in global financial markets is another critical driver of NZDUSD. As a commodity-linked currency, the New Zealand Dollar often performs well when risk appetite improves. Today, we see a more optimistic tone in equity markets as investors respond positively to the easing inflation pressures in the US and signs of stabilization in global growth. This “risk-on” environment typically benefits the NZD, and we are seeing this reflected in the slight bullish bias for NZDUSD. Moreover, China's economic stabilization efforts, especially in the property sector, have provided additional support for commodity-exporting countries like New Zealand, bolstering the NZD. 5. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, NZDUSD has been testing key support levels in recent trading sessions, and a bounce from these levels is likely to fuel further upside. The 50-day moving average (MA) has recently crossed above the 200-day MA, forming a bullish “golden cross,” which is a positive signal for further upside movement in the short term. In addition, RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings are indicating that the pair is not yet in overbought territory, suggesting more room for the bullish momentum to continue. Conclusion In summary, the NZDUSD pair is expected to maintain a slight bullish bias on 16th October 2024, driven by several key fundamental factors. Strong New Zealand economic data, a hawkish RBNZ stance, US Dollar weakness, positive global risk sentiment, and favorable technical signals all contribute to the optimistic outlook for NZDUSD today. However, traders should remain cautious of any unexpected developments that could shift the market sentiment. Keywords: NZDUSD, New Zealand Dollar, US Dollar, Forex Analysis, 16th October 2024, bullish bias, RBNZ, Federal Reserve, US inflation, interest rates, forex market, technical analysis, risk sentiment, currency trading, New Zealand economy, NZD strength, TradingView analysis, forex forecast, USD weakness.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
GBP/USD Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected on 14/10/2024The GBP/USD pair is expected to show a slight bullish bias today, supported by a combination of key fundamental drivers and technical factors. Traders and investors in the forex market should remain vigilant as several economic data releases and geopolitical events could shape the pair’s movements. Below is a comprehensive analysis highlighting the key factors driving this potential bullish bias for GBP/USD. 1. UK Economic Outlook One of the major drivers for a possible bullish momentum in GBP/USD is the recent strength in the UK economy. Despite some challenges in the global economic landscape, the UK has shown resilience, particularly with stronger-than-expected GDP growth and robust retail sales. UK inflation remains elevated, with the CPI figures suggesting sustained price pressure, which could prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to consider further tightening measures. A hawkish stance from the BoE, which is already maintaining higher interest rates, would support a stronger pound, adding to the bullish sentiment in the market. 2. US Dollar Weakness The US dollar is showing signs of exhaustion after a prolonged period of strength. USD weakness is being driven by softer inflation data, with the recent CPI report showing cooling price pressures in the US economy. The Federal Reserve may lean toward a more dovish stance, refraining from further aggressive rate hikes. This has caused the dollar to lose some of its safe-haven appeal, providing room for the pound to gain ground against the greenback. 3. Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment The broader market sentiment is being influenced by geopolitical tensions , especially in the Middle East and Europe. Risk-off sentiment tends to favor the US dollar, but given the recent easing of these concerns, market participants may shift back to higher-yielding assets like the pound. A relief in risk sentiment can boost the GBP/USD pair, pushing it toward higher levels. 4. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD On the technical front, GBP/USD is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend in the short term. The pair has found strong support around the 1.2100 psychological level, with upward momentum suggesting a test of the 1.2250 resistance level. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is trending upwards, confirming the bullish bias, while MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) also shows strengthening momentum. 5. Key Data Releases to Watch Traders should keep an eye on upcoming data releases for further clues on the GBP/USD trajectory: - UK Unemployment Rate: A stable or better-than-expected figure could lend support to the pound. - US Retail Sales: Any softness in the US retail sector could further weaken the dollar. - BoE Governor Bailey's Speech: Any comments on future monetary policy tightening could provide additional bullish support to the pound. Conclusion The GBP/USD is expected to exhibit a slight bullish bias today, driven by strong UK economic fundamentals, cooling US inflation, and broader market sentiment. The technical setup also favors upside potential, with the pair poised to target higher resistance levels. However, traders should remain cautious and monitor key data releases that could shift market dynamics throughout the day. Keywords for SEO Ranking: - GBP/USD analysis - GBP/USD bullish bias - UK economic outlook - USD weakness - Bank of England rate hikes - UK inflation - US inflation - US dollar outlook - Forex trading strategies - Technical analysis GBP/USD - BoE monetary policy - Federal Reserve rate decision - Geopolitical risks forex - Trading GBP/USD in 2024
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
US & Headline CPI - October Release/Overview US CPI US Headline and Core CPI for October both came in lower than expected (decrease). US Headline CPI: YoY – Actual 3.24% / Exp. 3.3% / Prev. 3.7% (Green on chart) US Core CPI: YoY – Actual 4.02% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.13% (Blue on chart) The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 1 – 3% from 2002 – 2020 below. Nice to see the Core CPI come down, almost down, into the moderate historical averages PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
World Wars & US Inflation From 1914This is the US Inflation Rate (YoY) from 1914 until 2022. Symbol is called USIRYY and it measures the Inflation Volatility in the United States. With the War going on in Ukraine, and Russia trying to force its way through, I took the liberty of looking into the following: - How Global Wars Affect Inflation - How US Inflation Reacts to External Wars - How Wars Affect the Financial Markets You can see the time-lines, it's all laid-out in the chart (graph). I took all the Major World Wars and events that significantly affected, not only the US Inflation, but Inflation itself. First of all, the US Inflation Rate (USIRYY) tells me the following: * When the US was involved in a War, we can notice that the US Inflation spiked. * Most of the times when US was not involved in an External War, then Inflation dropped. That's because of War & Uncertainty Sentiment around this "terrific" word. War does not bring anything good, in fact, in only brings bad times. People die and global sentiment gets super-negative. This of course, leads to... you guessed it: Market Crash. Why? Because after or during times of War, there are Recessions and Depressions. Supply Chains are disrupted and the Global Economy falls on its face. What about looking at things from a Technical Analysis perspective? * Symmetrical Triangle: and the only way is UP! I will give you points which I believe are worth keeping in mind for the next Market Crash. First of all, let's be logical about this. Winter is coming and it's only gonna get worse before it gets better. As Inflation spiked to a 40y high, the higher powers intervened, in an attempt to cool the Inflation spike off. I'm talking here about the Federal Reserve (FED) ramping up the Interest Rates. This is the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS). Can you see the break-out? They want to calm down Inflation, but they can't. Why? Because this is no ordinary Inflationary period, it's a long-lasting thing. One of those hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, or whatever the heck these experts call it... :) The Volatility Index (VIX) tells me that another spike in Fear Sentiment is inevitable. I'm in love with Elliott Wave Analysis, so I labeled this next chart. This is the United States Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) and it measures exactly what its name says, LOL. When it drops, people are freaking out. When it rises, people are optimistic and the Markets are going up. Daaaa! With all that said, what's the bottom line here? I believe that periods of terror are gonna hit us all. Are we having World War 3? Who the heck knows? All I know is that there are more pieces to this puzzle: United States 10Y Bonds (USB10YUSD) have reached the Support, and a spike bigger than the Covid Pandemic has started: The 10Y Treasury Note Yield (TNX) have broken out of a 40y down-trend: Isn't it ironic how it synced with the Inflation 40y high? Damn! Germany 40 (DAX, GER30, GRXEUR) is doomed. Fractal sequence, Descending Channel, and a "beautiful" ABC Elliott Wave Pattern. So, how can you prosper from all this? Metals could be a good hedge. Gold (XAUUSD) just broke out of an important Bearish Structure. Maybe it will go up. Natural Gas (NG1!) & Crude Oil (USOIL) however, are showing Bearish Reversals. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is Bearish until further notice as well. But this may become the new currency moving forward. In times of terror, the banking systems might need to change. Cash and Card is so '00. WHAT'S YOUR TAKE? WAR OR PEACE? Leave your commend down below. Cheers! Richard
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by Lionheart-EWA
5
The end of the fiat experiment, USA Hyperinflation / WAR This will be just insane to watch unfold month by month take a look. Adjust the US GDP to USM2 (Money supply growth) the US has not experienced real growth since the 1999, pretty alarming. Adjusting the SPX to the M2 the SPX has actually not experienced growth either. Forced to sanction the Russian Ruble (creating an excuse) to stop Russia gaining an advantage, CNY well we know what happen to them. EUR forced to print adopting countries into the EURO system. Now the FRED what just figured out this all leads to hyperinflation even BEFORE the QE policy? Very very coincidental that when the USA tried to avoid this scenario in 2018 by quietly raising rates, China happens to leak something that would completely throw the entire world off throwing the USD/EUR into quantitative easing policies, China would have known a lockdown event would trigger lockdowns and QE and put the USA / EUR system in a place worse than ever. coincidence I think not. Where does this leave the future? when the DXY starts to fall, Money Velocity starts to rise as assets are liquated back into the US economy at the same time. This will be from the EU and JP ramping up Yield curve control, the US will have to start engaging in Yield Curve Control for US yields as you can clearly see its not an inflation problem causing yields to rise, its the doubt the US economy, yields could start leaping to 7% - 15% this can't happen because then the US government will default. Pointing heavily to an all out war with Russia / China vs US / NATO. Either the world splits up into 2 system East / West separated economies or there's going to be a fight, and the country in the worst position has the biggest military arsenal and capabilities in the world. No point not buying Bitcoin at this point, either Bitcoin is the miracle to stop this or we no longer exist.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
AUDUSD Short Trade Idea: High U.S. Inflation and Hawkish FedThe AUDUSD pair is currently under pressure as a result of stubbornly high U.S. inflation and signals from the Fed that interest rates may need to be raised for a longer period than previously anticipated. We are looking to take a short trade on AUDUSD at 0.68977, with a take profit target at 0.67519 and a stop loss at 0.70014. This trade idea is based on the potential for the U.S. Dollar to continue to strengthen, while the Australian Dollar may weaken due to concerns about containing inflation. #AUDUSD #shorttrade #USinflation #hawkishFed #tradingstrategy 📈📊💰
Short
by ss7trader
US Inflation.US inflation is very correlated with the extreme rallies we have seen in US stocks, Oil and crypto, FED are increasing rates frequently to counter this abnormal levels inflation show as the bar graph in my chart, one thing that is going to directly affect asset prices is rates, the dollar should look to gain strength too. So increased Inflation will see rising asset prices, and a falling inflation should drop asset prices from their highs. FED are beginning to try tackle the major inflation seen in the US, and the market conditions are going to change, so be prepared and manage your risk very safely, these coming market conditions are going to be a tough sea in my opinion.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by ZenFlo
US30 THE DOW 30 CRASH, ONE YEAR LATER UPDATE Last year May we saw a potential crash for the Dow Jones 30 due to inflation fears and now what we predicted is finally happening. In our analysis a year ago Dow 30 was trading at 34,644 after reaching highs of 35100 we saw a potential sell signal on the 1W chart which was the formation of a bearish harmonic. this halted our longs and swings on the Dow. So what is Fueling the Dows Crash at the moment? Same thing which was fueling it about a year ago, inflation fears in the US. US investors have lost their trust in the Fed's ability to control inflation even with the current 75 basis points interest hike we saw this week during the FOMC on Wednesday to try and curb inflation, investors believe that the Feds tools have failed. Recent data has shown that inflation is now at its highest in the last 40 years in the US and analysts have predicted a decline in US GDP in the next coming years meaning the US could be facing a recession or is already in one. WHAT TO EXPECT Currently @ 29,900 Next support for Dow 30 is 29,500 so we expect it to reach this support level before short term retracement back to +30,000 Looking at the Covid Crash we expect Dow 30 to fall at least 10,000 points from its highs which were at 36,400 meaning We expect Dow 30 to reach 26,000 before any reversals, Our initial target from a year ago was 23,500 and we still think this might be a possibility. Our positions Active sell positions @ 31,600 & 31,300 from our last analysis link is attached below New positions Sell Limit @ 31,000 TP @ 30,000 Sell Stop @ 29,000 TP @ 28,000 Sell Stop @ 28,000 TP @ 27,000 Buy Stop @ 30,100 TP @ 30,600 Buy limit @ 29,500 TP @ 30,000 Buy limit @ 26,800 TP @ 28,000 Buy limit @ 23,700 TP @ 33,000 Note these are low risk entries link to previous analysis attached below Note: this is just an analysis based on technical analysis & current events. All investments involve risk, our analysis and trading strategy does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Short
by fxspott
GOLD ANALYSISEarly Friday, gold futures are trending lower as U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar remain steady amid increased expectations that the Federal Reserve would use aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. This thinking is being sparked ahead of today's U.S. inflation figures, which could reveal information about the Federal Reserve's monetary policies in the future. Traders are particularly interested in confirmation that the country's decades-long high inflation rate peaked in March. However, some doubters believe this is unlikely due to the recent spike in crude oil and gasoline costs.  Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of a basket of items to urban consumers, is expected to accelerate to 0.7 percent from 0.3 percent. When food and energy products are removed, the CPI is expected to cool a nominal 0.1 percentage point to 0.5 percent. Year over year, the consensus expects headline CPI to remain at a blazing 8.3 percent, with a "core" CPI reading of 5.9 percent, a welcome 0.3 percentage point decrease.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FiscalAutonomy