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Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. During 1920s - 1930s we experienced a "pandemic event" in both scenarios *odd*. It created a shock crash followed by a pandemic rebound that the masses called "bubble" this is where valuations broke due to a black swan event. We use the SMA 2D (200) that shows the larger trend of the market and we see similarities of this "bubble" crash bounce in 1922-1924, oddly similar to 2022-2024 right?. What's even more dangerous about today is the market in the roaring 20s was held back by the Gold dollar peg, today? we don't even have that. We just have interest rates. Following the 1924 situation the New York FED cut funding rates to avoid a "unemployment crisis" and it began the fueling of the final stage of a major bubble. Differences? during the pandemic in the 2020s Governments forced central banks to print trillions and trillions and enforce lock downs to stop the circulation of the currency. Following this they then raised interest rates globally sucking capital back into "bills" "Money Market Funds". What happens next?, the FRED will cut interest rates aggressively to avoid unemployment spiking trying to front run the future and in return these rates being lowered will rally bonds and release capital and new leverage back onto the market based on the debasement of QE we experienced. Yes the QE during the pandemic barely touched the markets where people were calling 2022 a "bubble". SPX/USM2 has broken out of a major trend while the FRED aggressively raised interest rates indicating this new "trend" cannot be contained without raising rates higher and its impossible to do so with the Government debt interest. A new bubble fueled by "Artificial Intelligence, Bitcoin, Electric Cars, Robotics, Biotechnology" could be rivalling the "automobile, radio, and electricity" fuel of the 1920s. The big question is does it end in a giant crash without a depression? and the answer will ultimately be how well the leveraged is contained in the later stages of the market.
TVC:DJILong
by SatoshiInsight
SPX adjusted to M2 money supplyThe value of stock market indices is highly correlated with the amount of existing money. That is why to measure the economic cycles, I weight the value of the stock market with that of the money supply (M2), obtaining this chart. We see how after 2008, business cycles of about 4 years have been established and that, in addition, we are now in an already mature bullish phase. This bullish phase will conclude with the distribution phase mentioned above, with the first resistances at the maximum value of 2007, and the maximum value trend line that continues since 2011 that has recently broken to the upside. It strikes me that we are not better off now than in 2007 or in 2000, despite all the debt created and the amount of money printed along the way. Take into account that Business cycles and the value of Bitcoin are highly correlated
SP:SPX
by edgargargar
1
TRUMP vs BIDEN : These 7 Charts Reveal AllThese charts will point out not only the difference between 4 year terms, but also the effect of the worldwide Coronavirus on different sectors. Just so you know, I am not advising for or against either candidate solely on what they could do or have done for a certain industry. Instead, this post aims to inform and point out the market's response during each Presidential period. It's also important to consider the effect of Covid (marked by the purple line). 1) DXY / TVC:DXY The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the U.S. dollar's value relative to the majority of its most significant trading partners, including the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). Under President Trump, the DXY fell 14% the moment he took office. The DXY then recovered the 14% over the next two years, but dropped again as the Coronavirus crisis was declared a global pandemic in May 2020. Under President Biden, the DXY rose from post-covid lows by 27%, then retraced 12% unto where it is now trading steadily. I'll use the following chart below as a reference to how we will be measuring (the difference between inherited point to exit, as seen by the measuring tool). Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -13% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +19% 2) Consumer Confidence Index / ECONOMICS:USCCI This Index index measures Americans' assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. The consumer confidence remained fairly stable under Trump, but fell drastically with the announcement of the Covid pandemic. Biden inherited a declining consumer confidence, but the CCI managed to recover with 57.6% after hitting the lowest lows during the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic. The CCI has not been able to recover to pre-covid highs, showing that consumers are not yet comfortable with the current state of economic affairs. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -19.5% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -2.4% 3) Inflation / ECONOMICS:USIRYY Initially the inflation rate was fairly stable under Trump, and then started to fall drastically, dropping -95%... until Covid. Since Biden took office, the inflation rate increased by 550%, but managed to drop back down by 62% after peaking during covid. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -44.8% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +141% 4) S&P 500 / SP:SPX Trump talked-up the stockmarket as a measure of his presidency when he was in office. (Not that the SPX is something presidents have much control over, but let's take a look at it anyway). The s&p 500 index of big American firms is higher since Biden took office, but it rose twice as much during Trump’s first 1,000 days in office. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: +63% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +40.8% 5) United States Employment Rate / ECONOMICS:USEMR In United States, the employment rate measures the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population. The USEMR was increasing steadily up to 2% when Covid hit. Under the Biden administration, unlike many European countries, America decided to give money to workers, rather than pay companies to keep people in employment. The share in work fell, but America’s economy bounced back more quickly than Europe’s. Biden administration takes credit for a 4.8% increase since taking office. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -14.5% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +4.8% 6) Unemployment Rate / FRED:UNRATE Trump inherited a steadily decreasing unemployment rate from the Obama administration. The UNRATE continued to drop until -25.8% after which, again, covid. It is true that the Biden administration inherited a tough one here, and there has been a 15% increase after bottoming out during April 2023. Unfortunately, this chart seems to be steadily increasing. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: +36.4% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -39% 7) Money Supply / ECONOMICS:USM2 US M2 refers to the measure of money supply that includes financial assets held mainly by households such as savings deposits, time deposits, and balances in retail money market mutual funds, in addition to more readily-available liquid financial assets as defined by the M1 measure of money, such as currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits. Historically, when the money supply dramatically increased in global economies, there would be a following dramatic increase in prices of goods and services, which would then follow monetary policy with the aim to maintain inflation levels low. Trump administration inherited a steeply increasing supply which kept increasing rapidly. Currently, under the Biden administration, the M2 seems to be moving towards an equilibrium. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: +45% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +7.7% ______________________ Note that these are not THE ONLY charts we can look at. In fact, I encourage you to post yours below! Which other measures are you looking at? Treasury, perhaps Bonds? Feel free to share them and lets compare!
TVC:DXY
by CryptoCheck-
6
🇺🇸 US2M - QE To buy the US Debt again ? 💎Here's an intriguing observation I'd like to discuss. The increasing number of diamond 💎💎 alerts serves as a warning sign indicating an imminent significant market move. - What is the US2M? The M2 money supply is a measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, and other liquid assets. It's broader than M1, which only includes cash and checking deposits. M2 is important because it gives a more comprehensive picture of the available money for spending and investment within an economy. - Does quantitative easing add to the money supply? Quantitative easing expands the money supply by enlarging the central bank's balance sheet and introducing fresh cash into the economy. This process boosts banks' reserves held at the central bank, effectively increasing the overall money available for circulation and lending. So what does it imply ? 📈 When we say quantitative easing increases the money supply, it means that it adds more money into circulation within the economy. This can lead to more available funds for spending, investment, and lending, which can stimulate economic activity. ( + the US Dollar often goes down in this case) 📉 On the other hand, if we say quantitative easing decreases the money supply, it would mean the opposite: the central bank is reducing the amount of money in circulation. This could be done to control inflation or to address other economic concerns where too much money in circulation might cause problems like rising prices. (+ the US Dollar often goes up in this case) Do not forget to check this US2M Chart, it is very important. I wish you a great day. ILT 💎
ECONOMICS:USM2Long
by IllumiTrade
Plenty of liquidity in the market + more liquidity to come?We still have distortions from the monetary liquidity introduced during the pandemic. The bottom indicator is the 12-month rate of change. We can see an extreme expansion in M2 and subsequent contraction. On the other hand, we can see that the M2 line still shows a big stock of liquidity compared to the standard deviations. Each standard deviation on the chart represents 2 trillion dollars. This shows that liquidity is abundant in the market, as the M2 is currently 2 to 3 standard deviations from its 10-year average. In other words, the M2 standard deviations show around $5 trillion in excess liquidity compared to the 10-year average, indicating that the money supply remains significantly elevated despite the recent contraction in the 12-month rate of change. This excess liquidity in the system may continue to impact asset prices and inflation and fuel a bull market. Finally, considering the fragility created by high interest rates in the banking industry, the FED might be forced to ease monetary policy and lower interest rates further to stabilize the financial system. This is another reason to be bullish or... in case the FED doesn't ease the monetary policy, to be bearish!
ECONOMICS:USM2Long
by HenriqueCentieiro
MACRO UPDATE - History is no longer reality since debasement Take some time to focus on the information and macro movement here and compare it with my notes. Why are leading economists and leading institutions fumbling? imagine comparing history prior to 2008 where Quantitative Easing did not exist. No standard macro indicator will be accurate due to the debasement of money that happen during the GFC, compare the SPY to money supply we see that we barely have reached post 2001 levels, 2007 highs. Jerome Powell will not admit this because the system has basically been debased hence the over compensation for rate rises why did he do it? because the debt situation is worse than it seems. This is a very unique situation where retail is still majority short on options/futures while money market funds are still in trillions of cash. If this does play out and you're an institution do you wait for the final bubble to melt up? or do you allocate now and try to capitalize or risk missing the market, either way, something interesting is about to happen. Reminder NO economic indicator can be trusted prior to 2008, its like using map plans for Atlantis you will quickly find out all your indicators are defected. T10Y2 | Is the indicator the federal reserve uses to find recessions. USM2 | M2 US money supply USINTR | USA Interest Rates WALCL | Federal Reserve balance sheet SPY/M2SL | SPY adjusted for the debasement Blue line | Global (major) central bank balances
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
EXIT USD IMMEDIATELY - BTC + M2V + DXY + IR + SPX/M2 Adjusted M2 Velocity is starting to increase due to deposits and M2 removing from the US system back into the economy (this indicates inflation is coming back harder) (this is an internal run on the dollar) (hence Gold and BTC taking off) SPX adjusted for the M2 is showing the market is undervalued + indicating further stimulus to get economic activity going again (you can't tax deflation) DXY is showing extreme weakness after the BRICS movements and Saudi Arabia turning away from the USA including Japan showing less and less support (this is an external run on the dollar) TSI showing BTC on a moving average did not achieve a market top during the fraudulent activity (bitcoin never topped this cycle in historic behavior on a monthly scale) USM1 (red) showing portions of the 23 trillion U.S. dollars PRINTED from QE / C9 are starting to dangerous circulate and exit into hard assets starting the rise of the M2 Velocity (this is point of no return, there is no way to stop this) EXPLANATION - the FRED has most likely seen the dangers and panic raised rates + QT to reduce the effect on M2V, Just like Weimar Germany Jerome Powell is too late and they caught this too late (hyperinflation risk is now real) I have attached a Weimar Germany Wholesale Price Index compared this with the (LARGE BLUE) line indicating 1923 - 2023 is exactly repeating Finale question is when does this kick off? when majority figure out the FRED can't fix this? the FRED can't raise rates? the FRED can't taper? the FRED can't lower rates? the FRED can't stop M2V? the CBDC emergency is stop the money velocity and has nothing to do with modernizing US / EU dollars, the only option is to force control spending and circulating currency, have 10 million? you're now only allowed to spend 50k a year. Why buy Bitcoin? if Bitcoin does not work the world enters world war 3 nuclear fighting to defend dollar strength, rising dictators repeating once again imagine a Hitler but in control of the entire American and NATO military, why don't I like Gold or Silver? it never stopped wars happening after currency collapses and it sure as hell won't stop this unfolding. ---------------UNITED STATED OF AMERICA--------------- 1971 CPI Index was at 40 following the gold depeg CPI Index reached 178 in 2001, Sep 2008 Pre QE reaching 218 and by June 2017 this number kept raising reaching 244, as of the Feb 2023 report CPI index is at 301 points. If this were to repeat similar to Weimar Germany 248 points was the period of NO RETURN, once velocity starts to pick up 300 will be 600 once panic starts to pick up 600 will be 8,557, once QE starts to deal with this problem of people unable to afford basic needs this number will reach 22,486. This will mark the end of the current US Dollar System to be replaced by a new dollar pegged to hard assets once again. ---------------UNITED STATED OF AMERICA--------------- ---------------WEIMAR GERMANY--------------- Between May 1921 and July 1922 the previous tendencies were once more resumed. On the basis of an index number of 100 for May 1921, the circulation in July 1922 was 248.6, internal prices were 734.6, and the dollar rate 792.2. Again, between July 1922 and June 1923 these tendencies con­tinued, though at enormously in­creased rates. With an index num­ber of 100 for July 1922, circulation in June 1923 stood at 8,557, inter­nal prices at 18,194, and the dollar rate at 22,301. The prices of imported goods had increased to 22,486. ---------------WEIMAR GERMANY--------------- inflation rate in United States: 2023: 6% 2022: 6.5% 2021: 7% 2020: 1.4% 2019: 2.3% 2018: 1.9% 2017: 2.1% 2016: 2.1% 2015: 0.7% 2014: 0.8% 2013: 1.5% 2012: 1.7% 2011: 3.0% 2010: 1.5% END
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FederalXBT
Hello US Hyperinflation - hello BTC reserve currency. Starting off I really had this event happening around 2030s, but here we are in 2023 just as Weimar Germany in 1923 stuck with too much debt to gdp. I don't care what the debt comes from or is spent on when a government goes Weimar and allows debt to get too far from a countries GDP its the point of no return. Done. Settled. There is no coming back. So where are we in US history? 1. US dollars are no longer backed by Gold 2. US dollars have been printed to mask a failed regulated banking system 3. Inflation remained low due to US military operations and military debt spending 4. Now US inflation is appearing while the banking system is in crisis, meaning its game over. Its the great depression or hyperinflation 5. Too much inflation for wages? here take some stimulus money. Can't afford rent? here take some stimulus. Measure the DXY index to US money supply you can clearly see its game over, measure the US stock market in US money supply you can clearly see its game over. Hyperinflation happens when you least expect it, the global banking system is already betting on the CNY being the new reserve currency for the next 100 years, but guess what? I don't think this is going to happen, bitcoin has already given the leaders in China a reality check when they saw what BTC was becoming and tried to ban it, followed by shadow miners and the Chinese government collecting BTC for insurance. bitcoin will be the last peaceful weapon of last resort that will somehow plug into a new US CBDC that will be backed by bitcoin its the only way out of this mess. there's a reason mining has been allowed, taxes to be harvested in BTC, + the US government got selling any Bitcoin while the Russian government has been doing similar, all giant countries are aware of this. Will the US Government try ban Bitcoin? Nope the opposite they will front run exports / imports in a CBDC / Bitcoin hybrid and become the leader of the new world reserve currency Bitcoin. This way China will be happy, Russia will be happy, there's no more fighting over some reserve currency. Final thoughts, if this is it we will see stock markets rise and appear "recovered" real estate start to halt declines DXY will start to weaken people will get asset richer while getting asset poorer, followed by hard assets like Gold and Bitcoin doing things you can't even imagine. This is Bitcoins moment, once those printers start in the G7 countries. US government will never allow a CNY reserve currency without World War 3, a bitcoin standard? possibly bitcoin will prevent a world war 3 scenario over power. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. The hyperinflation crisis of 1922-23 was caused in large part by the Weimar government printing banknotes to pay striking workers in the occupied Ruhr. 2. By mid-1923, the printing of these banknotes, which were not backed by gold, was causing a rapid increase in both prices and wages. 3. This hyperinflation led to farcical scenes, such as extraordinary prices and Germans pushing wheelbarrows of cash to buy simple items. 4. Hyperinflation also eroded the cash savings of the middle class and caused foreign exchange rates to skyrocket, disrupting commercial activity. 5. The hyperinflation crisis was eventually ended with the formation of a new reserve bank and the issue of a new national currency called the Rentenmark. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by FederalXBT