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Trouble lies aheadAs the Chinese stocks are starting to show signs of weakness after a few days of upside movement, we expect the same scenario to play out in the U.S. market. With that said, the setup we introduced in a previous article remains valid. To support a thesis about a bearish reversal, we want to see MACD fail at breaking into the bullish zone on the daily chart; in addition to that, we want to see RSI and Stochastic continue declining. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows two Chinese stock market indices we are paying close attention to. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the weekly chart of MACD. A breakout below the midpoint is something to watch in the following weeks. If MACD succeeds in breaking below zero points, it will be very bearish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
8
Walgreens Boots Alliance: The end is near.. 👀But thank god we mean the end of the current downtrend. The price is currently in the magenta wave , which it should complete in our green target zone between $27.30 and $24.10. With this, our white wave (II) is also coming to an end and thus a change in direction is imminent. Here, long orders can be placed well, since significant increases are to be expected afterwards. Attention should be paid to the alternative scenario with a probability of 38%. If this occurs, the increases are significantly shorter.
NASDAQ:WBALong
by MarketIntel
Has The U.S. Dollar DXY Peaked In 2023?After steadily climbing throughout 2021, the DXY saw a solid start to 2022. The US Dollar Index rallied from a low point of 94.63 in mid-January to a 20-year high of just over 114 in late September. DXY has experienced a significant drop since the publication of cooler-than-expected inflation data. Expectations of slower rate hikes from the Fed, and a lower potential terminal rate for US interest rates, have resulted in a repositioned dollar. I believe the USD will weaken further in 2023, as its significant overvaluation (based on the real effective exchange rate (REER)) can no longer be supported, once the Fed stops hiking, global growth shows signs of toughing and market volatility comes down. Technically, the dollar index DXY on the monthly timeframe closed below the 21-EMA for the first time since Aug. 2021, below the critical resistance represented in 102.80 level. Next downside target: 99.35 support level. (on the medium-to-long term)
TVC:DXYShort
by AlyaAkram
SPX Personal Notes - Jan. 23rd, 2023 - Feb. 10th, 2023SPX Personal Notes - Jan. 23rd, 2023 - Feb. 10th, 2023. Trend broke bearish channel, short analysis of what I'd be looking for in the next immediate days. The levels and zones should be fairly easy to follow, the blue drawings are from the weekly timeframe and above, the yellow are from any shorter timeframes. SPX was following a bearish channel that is labeled and can be seen if you scroll back. I assumed, at least in the short term, that if there was a daily break above and close, and a second daily open and close above the channel that this would represent a bullish trend flip. After this flip I began looking into longs starting on January 23rd, 2023. 'buy target wk 30-3' shows the area I would've been okay with entering long trades for this week. 'buy 6-10' and 'sell 6-10' (and respective above and below areas) show the areas that I would be comfortable with opening long or short trades this week or next week, given the current conditions and structure. 'dnt 6-10' is an area between two levels that does not have enough information or structure in this current moment for me to be confident with opening a trade in either direction. The buy/sell/dnt areas are not drawn to accurate timeframe scales. Sorry for the repost! All information and drawings are subject to change and are for educational purposes only. This is not to be taken as financial advice!
SP:SPXLong
by TonyAiello
2
US-Market Update - HeatmapThe Heatmap from yesterday ( SP500 ) shows the full story of last week. The stock market has been beaten down following additional FED hikes and announcement that more action can be expected from the FED. General Market Update Stock Market Falls Again The stock market was clobbered again Friday despite a weak pullback driven by the bulls. A few industry groups managed to shine even in the broader downward pressure. The S&P 500 ended the session down 1.1%. This means the benchmark index ceded more than 2% for the week and closed below the 50-day moving average. If it fails to rebound back above this key level it would be a worrying development. The Nasdaq composite ended the day down 1%. The tech-heavy index fared even worse than the S&P 500 as it skidded nearly 3% for the week. After the week's battering it has now lost more than 32% so far in 2022. The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day line the past two days. Volume surged on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE. This added distribution days to both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Decliners outnumbered advancers by around 2-1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
$SPX (S&P 500) – (Net High/Low +18)$SPX pulled back -0.69% this week after getting rejected by the highlighted trendline resistance. At the current juncture, $SPX remains above its rising 10/20-day moving average as it remains inside the month long uptrend channel, below its medium term downtrend line. The resistance to reclaim for further positivity in the market is at 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,850 level, breaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,700 level.
SP:SPXLong
by jfsrevg
$SPX (S&P 500) – (Net High/Low +88)$SPX staged an aggressive rally of +6.16% after better-than expected CPI data, rebounding off its 10/20-day moving average, The huge gains were a manifestation of pent-up hope that inflation has peaked and that the ultra-aggressive nature of the Fed's policy approach has also peaked. Briefly, total CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in October while core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month. The monthly changes left total CPI up 7.7% year-over-year, versus 8.2% in September, and core CPI up 6.3% year-over-year, versus 6.6% in September. The key takeaway from the report wasn't singular. It was manifold: (1) The report helped validate the peak inflation view. (2) The report is apt to compel the Fed to take a less aggressive rate-hike approach at the December FOMC meeting. (3) Some encouragement was borne out of the understanding that the shelter index (computed with a lag) contributed more than half of the monthly all items increase, suggesting price increases moderated in many other areas. $SPX currently trades inside a month long uptrend channel, below its medium term downtrend line. The resistance to reclaim for further positivity in the market is at 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,800 level, breaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,700 level.
SP:SPXLong
by jfsrevg
3
NASDAQ, 21ST SEPT MEETING ANALYSIS!!- REUPDATED!!due to the hikes in interest rates, US markets are not getting that freedom to freely enter the market and make their positions. the hike is creating a fear among the people of not entering into the market, and keep on people selling their positions, making markets keep falling. "A BULL RUN can only happen when all the news has been factored". this explanation is also set for the INDIAN markets too. and people do have a good and fresh mindset to enter into the markets. when such a thing happens US markets will have a boom. and this will gonna be happening soon. support lines are too mentioned. news is much factored in the indices, if by a chance nasdaq, broke the particular drawn supports to, then the next support will be forming around 10000, which is about 10% fall, but i dont feel now there is such more news aspects lefty to cover which will make the markets to fall with such a high number. final words, do watch out for 200 MOVING AVERGE, because from past few weeks, this indicator is acting a very good support for nasdaq.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight)$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low +17) The stock market came into this shortened week of trading on a three-week losing streak. It looked on Tuesday as if that streak might be extended to four weeks, but there was an abrupt turn in sentiment that powered a strong move in the major indices over the last three sessions from 3,900 support level. The losing streak was eventually broken and both the $SPX and $QQQ had reclaimed a posture back above their 50-day moving averages. The resilience to selling efforts in the face of negative developments has fostered a sense that the market has priced in the near-term rate hikes already after enduring three, consecutive weeks of losses. At Tuesday's low, the $SPX was down 10.1% from the intraday high it saw on August 16, so there has been an added sense that the market had gotten oversold and was due for a technical bounce. At the current juncture, the mid-term downtrend remains intact as $SPX remains trading below its declining 200-day moving average, and AVWAP from all time high. The support to watch for this week remains at 3,900 level, the recent lowest level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,212 AVWAP from all time high. Immediate resistance at declining 200-day moving average and downtrend line. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,900 recent low. next support at 3,800.
AMEX:RSP
by jfsrevg
SPY - bullish (pitchfork analysis)This builds on my previous pitchfork analysis (see related idea which pointed to June 17th as the point of reversal and the start of the longer term bullish cycle). While that still stands strong, this is a smaller term analysis. SPY reached the intersection of 2 upper pitchfork lines (well, one bar off the intersection) after which it fell. Now it reached lower pitchfork line which is a likely point a reversal, turning bullish. SPY however may go down to the next red line before bouncing back up. Looking at other, longer term pitchfork lines I drew, SPY hasn't become fully bullish (that is, it reached higher order bottom pitchfork lines than the upper lines.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradersForecast
2