SPX Personal Notes - Jan. 23rd, 2023 - Feb. 10th, 2023SPX Personal Notes - Jan. 23rd, 2023 - Feb. 10th, 2023. Trend broke bearish channel, short analysis of what I'd be looking for in the next immediate days.
The levels and zones should be fairly easy to follow, the blue drawings are from the weekly timeframe and above, the yellow are from any shorter timeframes.
SPX was following a bearish channel that is labeled and can be seen if you scroll back. I assumed, at least in the short term, that if there was a daily break above and close, and a second daily open and close above the channel that this would represent a bullish trend flip. After this flip I began looking into longs starting on January 23rd, 2023.
'buy target wk 30-3' shows the area I would've been okay with entering long trades for this week.
'buy 6-10' and 'sell 6-10' (and respective above and below areas) show the areas that I would be comfortable with opening long or short trades this week or next week, given the current conditions and structure.
'dnt 6-10' is an area between two levels that does not have enough information or structure in this current moment for me to be confident with opening a trade in either direction.
The buy/sell/dnt areas are not drawn to accurate timeframe scales.
Sorry for the repost!
All information and drawings are subject to change and are for educational purposes only. This is not to be taken as financial advice!
Usmarketbubble
BTC GOLD OR US30/S&P50018 Months after COVID-19 surfaced, the world economy is on its knee's. We are looking at inflation close to that of 2008/2009 in many countries. A recipe for disaster. Stocks struggle earlier this year as many expected inflation to be sky high since Uncle Sam at the FED printed 21% of all circulating dollar in history. Yes you heard that, Since the dollars creation 21% of the dollar that exists was printed due to covid. Weird, were is the money going? Everyone still broke right? People have less, well i can say for sure the poor(us) are definitely poorer and the rich well unaffected or richer as usual. Covid was a beautiful beautiful scam. Not saying it was fake as thats pure stupidity, but for sure countries and governments decided to monetize this tragedy. While most lost family and friends the rich made more as usual. The evidence is clear. Regardless, US bonds yields which we expected to react to the inflation news took the opposite affect. Instead we saw NASDAQ jump an insane 1.7%. Which in stock terms is insane. This is due to the fed promising to keep borrowing interest rates at zero. Essentially the US market which leads the world, sadly, (like the way BTC is leading crypto again sadly) is surviving on printing more. The government or the FED to be more accurate print money and buy stocks and borrow to the rich owners of business's. This is not a secret its called QUANTITIVE EASING. There is no evidence this works, only been tried once in 2008/9 but its not clear if it made us recovery since many techniques were tried. All in All most may have got here and thought what is this young man waffling about. Well look, The US market is showing strength when it really shouldn't i don't believe this quantitive easing will work and if it does its a matter of delaying the explosion of the bubble which is the American stock market. Also the terrible USD will probably lose a lot of value which it has been doing for years now. So WHATS THE SOLUTION YOU ASK? B T C. Love it or hate it. It is digital gold. Anyone disagree's with me is doing so out of pure ignorance. BTC is clearly more significant than gold in all aspects of Money storage or hedging against inflation. The S&P500 which was the old hedge will go to shit and if it doesn't 5-10% a year isn't that appealing is it? Long term BTC has proven to be the best hedge and In my opinion is better valued than the bubble which is the US stock market. I also believe in buying gold as a hedge. All in all we MAY see some what of a super cycle with this terrible US mess of a market which is slowly unravelling. 2020-2021 will have movies about it. How so many profited from Covid crash and the market crash which is approaching. Meme stocks and crypto will feature. Be a part. Anyways ima go back to enjoying the sun.
FINAL WARNINGI am OUT. This is getting crazy and I am pretty gosh darn confident in this count!! The RSI readings match the wave count as well.
Red Box = retest of the momentum resistance, indicative of a wave 5.
Yellow boxes = I zoomed into just that final wave 5 we've been in for 12+ years and it has retested 3 times!
I'm seriously creeped out.
*My theory is that once the public realizes that inflation will not be transitory and that all their expenses are going up, the musical chairs game is going to end.
No shame in taking some profit at least if you've been in this market for a long time. THIS IS NOT a correction that I can advise you just hold through. THIS IS depression-like correction that's coming.
You're gonna be holding the bag for probably 20-30 years before we get back up to these prices.
Please prove me wrong.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE.
S&P RSI Bear DivergenceThe current situation on S&P500 graph reminds the Dot-Com Bubble
RSI maximums going down, while the price maximums going up.
Taking into account the current situation with coronacrisis, mass defaults in the US in the next few months, relatively high unemployment in the next few years, growing savings among households, and low CAPEX among companies, the rise of S&P seems like a big bubble.