Dow EW-Count in case that the corrective 4 has not finished yetIt doesn't mean that this EW-Count needs to play out (wave 4 could already be finished). However I am just taking this into assumption as another szenario, in which the corrective wave 4 is still going on and plays out as a more complex and streched out structure in time. If this is the case, then it could be looking something like this. Also note how the wave 2 was rather short in time and short in retracement this could mean that the wave 4 now is deep in retracement and long in time, therefor we could still be in the wave 4.
Usmarkets
Next Downtrend SoonIt appears we'll be starting the Wave 5 impulse downward soon.
Timing is not my strong suit, so depending on how the president tries to manipulate people, we might not see it until next week, but it seems inevitable. I'm holding my long in the VIX with a target around $28-30.
Personally if it doesn't start tomorrow, I'll be loading up more on my VIX position because the labor day weekend could hold some big news.
Short the S&P, unless we see 2960Very BEARish on the S&P right now, and really all major indexes, especially the Russell and Nasdaq, but I mainly play the S&P through the VIX by buying leveraged VIX ETF's like TVIX which gives you 2x.
If we break 2890, we're going down to 2740 next to finish the bearflag measured by the vertical yellow line.
(note: I'm in hard bear mode and do hold a bearish bias to these markets right now. I friendly invite any opposition to try and convince me that we are not in a market correction and ultimately going down to 2,000)
Good buying opportunityDepending on how the markets open and futures go over the weekend, we could buy right here on the .618 fib level and bottom of the triangle.
We still have to finish the C wave correction, so we need to see this triangle hold. If it doesn't we could be looking at the $15.51 support for our next target because that would be a 1:1 ratio ABC correction
Visa: A winner amid the May market correction.Visa became today the largest S&P500 company to hit new All Time Highs since the May correction. 1D is on very healthy bullish levels (RSI = 60.091, MACD = 0.770, Highs/Lows = 1.7236) to ensure further uptrend. What is particularly interesting is that the price action since early May is identical to the January - April 2018 candle sequence. Even the RSI pattern has strong similarities. After the 2018 pattern was completed and a new High was made, Visa gained +19% in value. Assuming that the 1D MA50 will support this uptrend, we are expecting a similar rise which puts an early target estimation at 197.00.
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What happens when SPX tests its All Time Highs?With SPX approaching its All Time Highs (ATH), having risen non-stop on the 1M chart since the December low, we try to answer this question: How SPX behaves near its All Time Highs?
In this attempt, we thought it would be useful to back-test two long term periods, which share remarkable similarities: the 1966 - 1990 period with the 1998 - 2019 (current).
Initially and for almost a decade each, both periods share two major crisis events: For 1966 - 1990 the 68 - 70 and 72 - 74 bear markets, for 1998 - 2019 the 00 - 02 and 07 - 09 bear markets. What followed this period of turbulence was a strong bull market. The first was the one that actually led to the 2000 - 2002 crisis (Dot com bubble). The second one is still ongoing and based on the similarities of the two periods SPX should keep rising to new highs.
Will we have a pull back upon the ATH test? Well let's look at what happened during the last times SPX tested its ATH. In the modern era (1998 - 2019), SPX pulled back 2 out of the 3 times, but stayed on its strong bull channel since the bottom of the Housing Bubble. During the previous era (1966 - 1990), it pulled back 2 out of 4 times.
Since however the last ATH test was so recent, it is unlikely to make another pull back so soon, unless it follows the 2015 - 2016 example.
So in conclusion, SPX has much more chances breaking its current ATH (2,940) with in fact every bearish monthly candle being a buy opportunity.
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#SPX S&P500 Pure Price Action Chart SetupUS markets have rallied tremendously over the past month. We have increased steadily at a very fast rate, however we cannot go up this fast forever. 3 touches of the red ascending trendline confirms it as a support. Once price breaks trendline and bearish PA is confirmed, I will short heavily. US markets have been propped up after end of 2018 sell-off due to positive news of fed not hiking rates in 2019 and USA winning the trade war against China for about the 10th time (and hopefully the last as today China announced to buy billions in products to fix the trade imbalance) However I will short bearish PA and will be watching closely.
Short US Equities. The Dead Cat Bounce is Over.The market entered an important zone of resistance, formed by important support levels in the past. It is also failing to break through the 180 MA, where it has been rejected many times during this recent downtrend. We have also formed a double top, with bearish divergence shown on the RSI. As soon as we break resistance at 6530 with force, it will be a good short opportunity. I believe this was the completion of the dead cat bounce in the recent days, and we should now see a continuation of the downtrend. I will be playing this through SQQQ .
$SPX Index forming a triple low and continue to be in a channel Sun 09.Dec.2018 12:13
Ticker: SPX
LAST= 2,633.08
S&P 500 INDEX movement during the last few days showed a Bearish move, with a recent low price seen on Thu 06.Dec.2018 at 2,621.53 forming a triple lows formation at around 2,635.00 level and continue to be within the channel formed since mid October
During the next few days the price is expected to go down to 2,620.00 just to test the strength of the lower level of the channel .
The view for the Short-Term is expected to continue to be DOWN as long as the price is below 2,647.55. And its recommended to ' BE SHORT ' for a targeted price of around 2,625.00 and then may continue to the first and second support levels.
On the other hand, a change in the direction of the general trend needs to be considered when the price trades above the level 2,745.00
Res_2 = 2,690.50
Res_1 = 2,644.00
Sup_1 = 2,597.55
Sup_2 = 2,550.00
Dow Jones & World Markets - Bullish & Averaging LongWe are averaging our derivative positions for the next few months when the RSI crosses the 51 level on the DJI weekly chart. We will only cancel averages if prices stay longer than 3 days <24k. The inverted shoulder-head-shoulder pattern can be seen in most world indices.
I take this opportunity to reaffirm our outlook for the markets in the coming months, being a bullish stock market, bearish commodities, a bullish dollar and a bearish euro. As for blockchain, it will be decided in a break very probably in December.