SPY bearish - pitchfork analysisSPY reached double pitchfork resistance levels (2 different pitchfork lines intersecting close to the point where price reached), both on daily and weekly. RSI on weekly also reached a pitchfork resistance line. This gives a good probability that SPY will take a down turn soon.
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FERRARI ($RACE) at the resistance area!From a technical point of view, Ferrari ( NYSE:RACE ) Stock Trend is bullish, but at the same time it has reached an important resistance area around $300/320, and from here it could trigger a short-term corrective structure. The minor structure 12345 might be completed, but as we can see from the chart, it might be a wave 5 of 3 (major), so once the correction is completed, I don't rule out a new bullish leg.
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DOW JONES Technical view on what chart is trying to say.DJ:DJI
A reliable thing on which almost all investors believe in to know the trends of the market weather it will be upside or in the down side in the short term. so here it is a basic outlook of what I think looking at the chart of our fav index Dow jones which tell us so many things at ones and sometimes says nothing.
This is the time where we have to understand it better that market condition based on the economy level is very weak we cannot expect a big really from here to the upside even after it has tested its important trendline recently on the 15th of march after 5 days of collapse of the SVB (silicon valley bank) after which common expectations should be of a crash in the market which has not been seen yet or i guess it has been just postponed for a while by the US fed by promising all its customer that they will get there deposits back that too 100% of the amount they have with the bank. and 97% of account there had more deposit than the amount that is insured by the government at the time of collapse of any bank. so to the point to fulfil the promise of the government at the time of inflation and economic crises nearly already smart ass US government printed more dollars in order to give it back to the depositors and maintain there promise as well as trust of people on banking system.
Above phase is just to make you understand the economic outlook at this period of time because based on economic factors only technical theory can be supported. now coming to the technical part of the index as we were discussing above on 15th of march as you can see on the chart important trend line has been tested once and then it has started moving upwards which is supported by the fed news of printing more notes and pumping it in the economy. after the support now price will tell the next resistance level of around 34500. we can consider a short term upward move due to the extra dollar printing up to 36000 and 36800. this is same situation as we saw in the times of pandemic when people got cash credits on which market reacted positive and gave us a big bull rally and new highs. we cannot expect new high because now the situation is same but not the economy, there is inflation now which was already at high and expected to go more in coming time of June and July and then soon we see a correction flush of all the extra money and a red color splashing all over the markets.
This was my over look of Dow jones on bases of economic and technical view hope this can help you read the chart more easily.
Thankyou,
2023 Looks Very BloodyStocks look poised to head sharply lower through the rest of this year. The banking crisis has been snoozed like your alarm clock blaring at you first thing in the morning. The thing is you only get about 5-10 mins before it blares at you again. More bank failures are coming. Most banks are holding treasuries with unrealized losses and myself and others are combing through balance sheets and finding weak players asking to collapse.
This summer looks very negative. My hunch is the debt ceiling issue is going to compound the bank crisis. There seems to have been no progress made at all between Republicans and the White House over the last couple months and we only have 2-3 more months before this becomes a catastrophe. Myself, along with many others, believed initially that this was a non-issue, but the charts are saying otherwise. Perhaps we should not dismiss this as impossible. It could be a black swan that's right in front of everyone's noses but they don't think it is worth inputting into their risk calculations yet.
The rally from the October lows is not impulsive. There is no wave count to be made that is bullish there and the upward action has cut back into previous highs a couple times so there are many reasons to believe further downside is much more likely.
It is going to get a lot worse before it gets better folks.
I hope you all have your seatbelts on and some money in Volatility.
There won't be a warning. One morning we'll just wake up and 6 more banks have announced stress and people will start freaking out. Volatility will spike 40% in a day and people will rush in.
Good Luck.
DJI May be surprising you and in lower time it looks in the 4th Hey guys can see the moves made by dow jones from 13 march....each leg looking a 3 wave structure....
In my view it is in 4th wave of lower time frame and would show you much deeper levels...
This is not a trade idea but for educational purpose....
abcde patter in formation...!
Regards
Bank of America (BAC) A great potential for the mid-term
Bank of America is one of the largest banks in the United States, with more than 4,000 branches and 16,000 ATMs located across the country.
In 2008-2009, the bank was among the many banks that required a government bailout during the financial crisis.
Despite these controversies, Bank of America remains a major force in the banking industry and continues to be a trusted financial institution for millions of customers.
⛓Technical analysis
We may see a drop of up to 5% in the coming weeks before the recovery that should take place in the first 2 quarters of the year.
Trade safe!
• Dow jones signal | 4H TimeframeWe have a strong order zone and we are waiting for the price reach that zone.
S&P500: Another drop? S&P500: By the book again?
Classic technical analysis! Literally a school of technical analysis!
In its last 3 attempts, the index tried to break the resistance level while MACD shows 'the cross' (the blue line dropped below the orange one which indicates a change in the trend) and led the market to another down-trend period of several weeks.
As you can clearly see on the graph, the index has failed every time since the beginning of the year, will the situation be different this time?
Trade safe!
NIFTY 50 SHORTING!! ABOUT 2.5% FALL!!i have seen the major sectors, and major blue chip stocks, there charts, based on there current positions, and those particualr sectors and stocks's weightage, i have come up with nifty's shorting.
NIFTY WILL FALL ABOUT 2.5-3%. since its been a little overvalued, it needs to get a correction. now recently it gave its ATH, and a pullback from it, there on, its been a little overvalued to touch that particular point. now it needs a time to get rest, and be volatile in nature, then it will again resume its rally.
one more point to just add on: US MARKETS, are yet too volatile, and they are nearly to be bearish in nature, recently S&P indices could not break the lower low pattern. yet, this could worry the INDIAN MARKETS. and top of that nifty it is already seen it, woth a red candle given past week.
i will show a small concluding analysis of what sectors and stocks i had selected to short the nifty, as i ws mentioning earlier. (i will mention the once which are majorly in fall, and supporting nifty to rise)...
SECTOR ANALYSIS-
BANK NIFTY: 7% FALL
NIFTY FMCG: 7% FALL
NIFTY ENERGY: 4.5%(approx) FALL
NIFTY METAL: 12% FALL
NIFTY IT: could fall 2%, then move upward about 10-15%
STOCKS ANALYSIS-
RELIANCE: COULD FALL 3%, BUT THEN NEEDS TO MOVE ABOUT 10% UPWARD
HDFC BANK: YET 10% UPWARD MOVE IS PENDING...
ICICI BANK: 10% FALL
INFOSYS &TCS- COULD FALL 3-4%, THEN MOVE ABOUT 10-15% UPWARD
KOTAK FALLING 6%.
i see major secotrs like bank nifty and fmcg, being overvalued, and needs correction, and nifty it being undervalued, a big move still not completed.
other sectors like pharma, fin serv &auto to be neutral, being volatile.
nifty metal is in crucial stage, since it has just given a pullback, but yet needs to be conformed by its further moves, but most probably it needs correction.
i will slowly bring analysis on nifty mid and small caps too, and other imp stocks to get covered, and there further moves.
The Resistance Hit 4th Time - SPX500
Saw the red line! It is now hit the 4th time by the market.
Although oil has come down from 130 to 80 USD per barrel giving some relief to the oil-dependent economies and inflation is also in a downtrend, the problem is worse and deeper. This alarming deeper problem is US debt which is now 137% of the GDP. Imagine it was hardly 67% in 2008 during the financial crunch. If things were good, why did this debt rise to 137%.
Debt is good for industries till it remains fuel for growth. But when it becomes fuel for existing debt it is really problematic.
US Risk Model UpdateCurrent reading of our risk model is low risk. Swing-traders can increase their exposure applying the concept of progressive exposure.
Some details:
Our risk model considers technical indicators, psychological / contrarian indicators and most importantly, the performance of stocks on our watchlists and in our portfolio. By doing that, we can define if our strategy is in line with the current market environment.
• General Market: The health of the general market is determined by IBD’s methodology which considers Distribution Days, Follow-Through-Days and a number of other non-technical market indicators.
• New 52w Highs versus Lows: If > 1 and the general market indicator is showing an ‘uptrend’-signal, then this indicator is a further confirmation as a high number of individual stocks are supporting the uptrend in case of a ration >1.
• Stocks above / below their 200d MA: if > 1, then we have additional confirmation.
• Volatility Index: this index is a measure of the choppiness of the current market. Reading close to 30 or above are an alarm signal.
• Up/Down volume: if > 1, then this indicator confirms that we are currently in a buying environment, major institutions are pushing their big money into the market.
• Bulls versus Bears: this is a contrarian indicator. Extreme bullish readings are an alarm signal and may indicate the end of a bull market run. On the other side, extreme low readings can indicate the end of a major market correction / bear market.
• Margin Debt: this is also a contrarian indicator. Readings below 0 indicate that there is lots of money available to push the markets higher, extreme high readings indicate that the margin level of investors is very high and sentiment is overly bullish. This might indicate the end of a bull market run.
• Most important: always look at the performance of your own trading over the last week or few weeks. If that is not positive there is no reason to increase market exposure.
SPX 500 LOOKS BULLISH MAKET LOOKS PURE BULL 4200 IS MONTHLY TARGET
options price will move more volatile
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General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap SP500
One may get concerned about the relatively red looking Heatmap from yesterdays' session. Don't bee too concerned!
Let's take a deeper look into what happened yesterday:
Nasdaq Makes A Normal-Looking Pullback
The Nasdaq, having rallied as much as 11% in the prior four sessions, seemed all but destined for a pullback. That's exactly what investors got Wednesday.
A 1.5% decline by the composite index on Wednesday may sting those who went long right before the market open.
Yet in the context of the overall market's fledgling uptrend, the Nasdaq's loss on Wednesday does not disturb the current upward trend. Plus, volume fell sharply on the Nasdaq vs. Tuesday's session.
That's actually nice for the bulls. Lower volume on down days signals that the big players on Wall Street — from mutual funds and banks to pension plans and large investment advisors — are not dumping shares. This latest pullback can therefore be considered as a natural reaction to the previous up-sessions.
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