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Risk-Model for the US-MarketOur proprietary risk model for the US market changed to GREEN giving swing-traders a green signal to increase their exposure. Most technical indicators in our risk model improved versus last week and are now showing a green or al leaset a yellow light. Contrarian / psychological indicators like the bulls vs bear indicator are well in a range which would support a transition into a new bull market. Most importantly, the individual stocks on our watchlists and our model-portfolio acted well in course of last week and we could score some nice gains. We can now apply the concept of progressive exposure and increase our exposure on the back of our gains from last week. By doing that, we are always invested the most when things are working well for us, that means when our strategy is well fitted for the current market environment. Swing-traders can increase their exposure but still need to be aware of the risk around high volatility in the current market environment. While we could score some nice gains in course of last week, the market is still responding with a high volatility to relevant news. This is different in a stable and confirmed bull market uptrend in which you will only have some volatility around news updates.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
JS-TechTrading: US Market UpdateUS Market Update The U.S. midterm elections won't have an official conclusion for quite some time. Meanwhile, investors are facing questions about what Thursday's latest inflation report means for the path of interest rates. The general reaction toward corporate third-quarter earnings has been poor. This puts the durability of the latest rally attempt during the current bear market in question. The stock market dislikes uncertainty which become obvious during yesterdays’ session. Small caps to megacap techs faced severe losses. Key indexes finished virtually at session lows. The current uptrend remains under intense selling pressure. Always think risk first! The Nasdaq dropped 2.5% and wiped away three days' worth of gains. Another drop like the one on Wednesday could lead to a test of the Oct. 13 near-term low of 10,088. Small caps did worse as the Russell 2000 sank 2.7%. The large-cap S&P 500 sank 2.1%. On Thursday, all eyes on Wall Street will focus on the October consumer prices report. The Day's Biggest Decliners The oil and gas sector really got socked as crude oil futures fell even harder than the stock market benchmarks. West Texas intermediate near-term futures slid 3.7% to $85.61 a barrel. Natural gas fell 2.9%. Lower energy prices will indeed help soften the blow that raging inflation is having on the economy. But this has consequences for stock market investors as well. Lowlight: Chart Industries (GTLS) fell 20% (oil and gas machinery and equipment industry group).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
S&P500 short analysis!!30 min time frame. used Fibonacci to draw (ABC) correction waves. this days, US markets are been a lot volatile. LET ME KEEP MY OPINION OF WHY MARKETS ARE VOLATILE: SINCE MANY OF THEM THINK THAT US INFLATION HAS REACHED ITS PEAK, AND ON THE FLIP SIDE MANY OTHERS THINK IT YET MORE NEEDS TO TRAVEL UP. this basically is causing a lot of volume in the markets. bulls and bears are acting to there strategy. ONE TIP: during volatile markets, be on cash, or invest in low risk assets. be careful, keep having an eye. trade with your own risk.
SP:SPXShort
by raghavchoudhary2016
JS-TechTrading: US Market UpdateNASDAQ Heatmap for last week The heatmap for last week tells the full story – it has been a tough week for the US stock market. Tech Giants like GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL and TSLA being down 6% or more for the week. Selected smaller Caps, especially in the Healthcare Sector could make some gains. Stock Market manages to recover after a significant sell-off following the hotter than expected job report Friday Indexes were volatile after the report, at one point erasing a 2% gain. The Nasdaq turned in the best gain of the major averages as it punched its way 1.3% higher. But this is hardly impressive given it was clubbed 5.7% lower for the week. It is now firmly back below the 50-day moving average. The S&P 500 also showed grit by turning in a 1.4% gain. Nevertheless, it suffered a body blow after falling 3.3% for the week due to the hawkish tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Still, the 50-day line remains in striking distance for now. Bulls and Bears Battle Over Jobs Report The sparring between the bulls and the bears came after another hotter-than-expected jobs report that showed U.S. payrolls surged by 261,000 in October. This was higher than expected but there are a lot of signs that support the labor market will continue to soften here. In addition, the midterm elections are set to take place. With President Joe Biden suffering from poor approval ratings, a split Congress or even a red wave where the Republicans seize both chambers could be in the offing. Markets tend to rally following the midterms. ETF-Trading : 2 distribution days for the SP500, 2 for the NASDQ. The recent Follow-Through-Day on Oct 21st failed. Current recommendation for ETF investors is to be 50% Invested (or less).
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by JS_TechTrading
US Stock Market Update Nov 4thStock Market Extends Losses Ahead Of Jobs Report - Tech Giants Continue To Struggle The stock market ended lower ahead of Friday's jobs report, as the major stock indexes continued to fall after Wednesday's Fed-fueled sell-off. Tech titans continue to suffer severe losses. Jobs Report, Treasury Yields Friday's jobs report is already predicted to be the softest since December 2020, with the U.S. economy expected to add 210,000 jobs. Yet there's reason to think it may turn out far weaker — perhaps even bad enough to provoke some rethinking about Fed chief Jerome Powell's rally-killing rate-hike plans. Stock Market On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite lost 1.7%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 declined 0.5%. Volume fell on the Nasdaq vs. the prior session, and also appeared to be lower on the NYSE. Lower volume means the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both avoided another distribution day. Tech titans continued to struggle. Amazon lost 3.1% Thursday in big volume. The e-commerce giant is down about 46.4% year to date, on pace for its worst year since 2000, when it crumbled 79.6%. Alphabet (GOOGL) tumbled 4.1%. Apple (AAPL) declined 4.2%. Meta Platforms (META) fell 1.8%. And Microsoft (MSFT) sold off 2.7%. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft hit new 52-week lows. At this point, investors should be playing defense; don't let profitable trades turn negative. Be cautious of the high risk in the current market. With key reports coming out and the reporting season still ongoing, swing-traders have to be aware of the increased level of volatility.
Long
by JS_TechTrading
Morning Update: SPX Futures may need OMH to 3823 Last night’s spike up and reversal seems to display the hallmarks of the short-term trend shifting. However, in a further examination of the smaller timeframe fractals, unless this develops into a Leading Diagonal (which is an untrustworthy trading pattern) we should chop around in this area only to get OMH towards the 3823-38 area. The black count is playing out within the smaller the micro timeframes as you can see from the above. I will point out that OMH is NOT required to complete this pattern. This pattern can be considered complete and Black 4 is done. It’s the overlapping decline from the 3813 high that is causing me to anticipate one more high (OMH). Additionally, I mentioned over the weekend I would like to see a day or two of slight upward pressure on price for MACD to get closer to the zero line. So we have this area where this final battle will take place for control of price. I fully expect to know the outcome by weeks end. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
7
The Peculiarity surrounding Smart People I think it was Confucius who said, “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance”. I find that quote one in which I must contemplate for a while. I would like to know I have the capacity to realize when I was skewing more so towards ignorance, rather than remaining rational. I also have to consider the nature of ignorance means I’ll never be successful in that endeavor. Putting that aside for a bit. I have many goals, like so many of you reading this post, I would like to accomplish before I depart this life. Professionally, none more important than in the same vein as Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, training average people how to successfully trade markets. I’m not talking about hosting a webinar on how to place a limit order. Neither am I referring to what James Cramer does on his Mad Money TV show where he states what he thinks you should buy and what he thinks you should stay away from. I’m talking trading success. Individual self-sufficiency. " A Turtle for Today"... My Turtles. I’ve written about these two characters before (Dennis and Eckardt). The story of their Turtles haunts me. I have read all I could find on them. Suffice to say The Turtles are largely anonymous today. To me, that’s ok. I actually respect that. But if you're like me, you’ve searched the ends of the Earth to find that one thing that separates us, as traders, from all others. How does the trader of today, differentiate themselves to achieve long-term success? How does today's trader get an edge on all the competition? These are deep, but relevant questions to ask ourselves in the trading business. Inheritant or otherwise through formal means...smart people want to impress you that they’re smart. They want you to understand the depths of their knowledge is complex...so much so, that going to the store for bubble gum is not as simple as it would seem. That these things are complex, and your simple minds would not understand. I will impart one thing to all of you who have taken the time to read this Sunday diatribe of mine...Reject that notion and, ERROR ON THE SIDE OF SIMPLICITY. Simplicity in how you interpret your analysis. Simplicity in how you develop every trade thesis you execute. Simplicity in how you approach trading in general. If a lay person cannot agree with you, then in my opinion, you’ve over complicated it. It goes back to when realizing we’re being ignorant. The very nature of ignorance is not knowing, so it’s somewhat counterintuitive to come to some realization. I will not draw this post out so long as to the point it’s gets boring so I'll conclude. I studied Economics in college and was fascinated by it. I met my wife in Freshman ECON 101 and we’re still married today. I learned about the money multiplier, supply side and Keynesian economics, and the role of the Fed. I could write a 100-page post on this subject matter. But in as much I enjoyed learning about these things....AS A TRADER, I HAVE FOUND THEM TO BE WORTHLESS. If you’ve read this post to this point, please allow me to leave you with this parting nugget of wisdom. And a simple reminder. YOU’RE NOT AN ECONOMIST. YOU’RE NOT A GEOPOLITICAL EXPERT. You’re not a mathematical Nobel prize winner or contender. You’re a trader. So keep things simple. “Unrealized intelligence I’m sure is a Chinese proverb”. Chris Maikisch Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
NASDAQ, 21ST SEPT MEETING ANALYSIS!!- REUPDATED!!due to the hikes in interest rates, US markets are not getting that freedom to freely enter the market and make their positions. the hike is creating a fear among the people of not entering into the market, and keep on people selling their positions, making markets keep falling. "A BULL RUN can only happen when all the news has been factored". this explanation is also set for the INDIAN markets too. and people do have a good and fresh mindset to enter into the markets. when such a thing happens US markets will have a boom. and this will gonna be happening soon. support lines are too mentioned. news is much factored in the indices, if by a chance nasdaq, broke the particular drawn supports to, then the next support will be forming around 10000, which is about 10% fall, but i dont feel now there is such more news aspects lefty to cover which will make the markets to fall with such a high number. final words, do watch out for 200 MOVING AVERGE, because from past few weeks, this indicator is acting a very good support for nasdaq.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
NIFTY 50, WAVES- REUPDATED!!in my previuos analysis of nifty50 waves(i will mention the link), i had drawn the waves which existed with the 2 major black line(drawn out in chart), i had thought nifty 50 will complete its 5 wave bull run impulsve movement, in that trend itself. but due to the affect of US markets, nifty is fluctuating(same acts for NIFTYIT too), so it will now hold that support(drawn in black line), which is drawn from the markets getting consolidating, after the 2020's bull run. and end up in same trend line which was going previously. today(23rd sept), when the markets opened which gave a breakdown to my analysis, i had drawn out the purple line, and today the same days when markets got closed, supporting my line, i am confirmed now with my waves. therefore this analysis even says that US markets will also recover very soon, and will give its bull run.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
2
SPY - bullish (pitchfork analysis)This builds on my previous pitchfork analysis (see related idea which pointed to June 17th as the point of reversal and the start of the longer term bullish cycle). While that still stands strong, this is a smaller term analysis. SPY reached the intersection of 2 upper pitchfork lines (well, one bar off the intersection) after which it fell. Now it reached lower pitchfork line which is a likely point a reversal, turning bullish. SPY however may go down to the next red line before bouncing back up. Looking at other, longer term pitchfork lines I drew, SPY hasn't become fully bullish (that is, it reached higher order bottom pitchfork lines than the upper lines.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradersForecast
2