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US: Long-Term Trend Model on 'BUY'Our long term trend model for ETF investments moved to a buy signal two weeks ago and remains solidly bullish. ETF investors should be invested by 50-100%, pullbacks of the major US market indices can be used as low risk entry points. If you are still in 100% cash, I would look to add 25-50% on pullbacks in the SPY. With that said, the current environment for breakout / swing-trader is still a bit tricky, there is still nervousness in the market and volatility increases for any sort of market relevant news. Individual stocks are not yet moving in earnest and we remain in a "hard penny" environment. Stay patient and disciplined for now. We will enjoy an "easy dollar" market again at one point, the only question is when. For now, I would hold off on getting too aggressive until we get more confirmation that a reliable bottom has been established. Stock traders should only buy qualified breakouts and only get aggressive if and when breakouts start displaying meaningful follow through. Always apply the concept of progressive exposure. Notwithstanding a continued rally, backing and filling could take months. This will depend very much on inflation and the affect rate hikes are having on the economy. Our JS-TechTrading risk model stays on green:
DJ:DJILong
by JS_TechTrading
Analysis on the ES Futures chart on the Weekly Time FrameI am trying in this analysis to figure out the price movement of the ES futures in the coming months Using the Bollinger Band as a simple tool to analyse I am basing this analysis on previous price action and its relevance to the current place of price on the chart. We are revisiting the 20 WSMA and a significant supply zone on the price front. We could see some resistance on the strong up move that we have seen in the last 2 to 3 weeks and the rally may be coming to a climax in this cycle. We should wait for the confirmation signals before we begin to trade on this analysis and commit our capital only once the price action gives us the desired moves. I am not a registered financial advisor and just releasing this idea as a piece of educational information on how price analysis can lead to action that can help us profit from engagement with the market. Please opine on this analysis and comment your views
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ancorman
This is the 6th correction on S&P500 since 2009. In today's post, we will compare the current correction in S&P500 with all the similar corrections that happened since the beginning of the bull market in 2009 (the bottom of the 2008 financial crisis). Why are we doing this? Because in the market, no situation is completely new, and by understanding similar situations in the past, and the following resolutions, we can get a good idea of how to react to the present. I will be using the following parameters. Every decline of 15% or more will be considered a major correction. Under those parameters, we have 6 situations to analyze. 2010 / 2011 / 2015 / 2018 / 2020 (I bet you remember that) / 2022 (now). The information that you will see in the following pictures is: a) % Decline b) Duration from the beginning of the correction until the bottom of it. c) The most external trendline of the corrections. 2010 2011 2015 2018 2020 2022 Alright. So how can I use this? You can use this in several ways. The most basic way is looking for patterns in specific areas you are interested in. For example, one of the main tools I use to look for setups is waiting for the breakout of the most external trendlines of corrections and then looking for corrective movements that I can use to set entry and stop levels. But that's my style. So you can use yours, like taking each of these scenarios and using moving averages, indicators, or whatever you prefer. The key aspect here is that I have classified similar situations in terms of decline and Duration. Now it's up to you to develop setups around this, and you can test how your parameters would have worked on 5 scenarios in the past. If you see a clear edge, then you have a great opportunity to plan your next setup. Thanks for reading! If you have ideas in mind, I would love to see what parameters you can come up with in the comments. Like "I have tested X, W, Z," and this was my result.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
Here's what we should be watching this week for Bitcoin.Traders, I want to go over a few items that should remain on our watchlist this week and where the indicators are leading me. I will also give an update on how Stewdamus 2.0 is coming along. -Stew FED Events 🏛 🇺🇸U.S. ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK: *MANUFACTURING PMI (TUES.) *SERVICES PMI (TUES.) *NEW HOME SALES (TUES.) *DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (WED.) *FED FOMC MINUTES (WED.) *Q1 GDP - 2ND READING (THURS.) *JOBLESS CLAIMS (THURS.) *PENDING HOME SALES (THURS.) *CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (FRI.)
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
The S&P Holds At The 200smaThe S&P 500 has found support following the gap down candle on April 5th. The 200 simple moving average has been holding price up for three consecutive days. Price is now forming an unconfirmed bullish flag formation, which will be confirmed if the recent high from March 29th at $4637 is broken. The recent move has been bullish from March 14th but price is actually in consolidation since January 4th. As there are signs of recent strength and support holding price from declining further, we are anticipating a continuation of the overall bullish trend over the coming weeks and months. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPX
by Sublime_Trading
$SPY $QQQ to remain haywire until T10Y2Y inversion confirmsRecently Global Markets had experience some unprecedented fluctuations amid pandemic-endemic transition in a growing geopolitical conflicts between Russia-Ukraine, sending NASDAQ:QQQ slightly to bearish market earlier in March 2022. Later in the month, the trend reversed, breaking 200MA resistance. We anticipate the market will remain volatile for the coming weeks until (1) 10y-2y yield inversion confirms, (2) CPI for March is released. Market is pricing in 6-7 interest hikes, aiming for 2.75% target rate until EOY 2023. Job market data is strong. According to US Department of Labor, March 24th jobless claims is at 187K, lower than pre-pandemic level. Yield Curve Inversion is all time low. FRED:T10Y2Y is at around 0.20, and on a downtrend. Historically, when the inversion occurs bringing it to 0, it indicates an upcoming recession. Geopolitical conflicts to be resolved between Ukraine and Russia. Aside from thousands of tragic loss in military and civilians, it casted upward pressure on some of the essential commodities like NYMEX:CL1! ZW1! CBOT:ZC1! MCX:NICKEL1! . These are putting an added pressure for FOMC to control the aggressively hiking inflation rates. Inflationary Risks. February yoy CPI printed at 7.9%. March yoy CPI is being released on April 12th. If the Fed wasn't able to deploy an effective QT to control rising prices, and if the CPI prints above the consensus, this will likely cause a negative shock to the market.
AMEX:SPY
by JDS_6ix
1
SPX - Time to SELL??Here we are after a massive 9 day rally at the moment of truth. FOREXCOM:SPXUSD This where we find out if it is a suckers rally and we are heading lower or a major low is in and we shouldve been long from 2 weeks ago. Bearish option - We have had a 9 day rally and everyday has had lower volume from the 15th of March spike low. This is not Bullish at all. We are almost at the 61.8% level from the All Time High. This would create a bigger ABCD correction down to the 3800 area. We still have the ABCD down to 4000 as long as 4600 doesnt get taken out. Bullish option - Still has a Pull Back before higher prices. This could see it come back to 4300 before we could see the next explosive move to the upside and new all time highs. This would be the place to get long and hold on for the last blow off towards 5200. Plenty to watch for but running out of steam is how im seeing it ATM. An ABCD move down for the upside or a fast move down for the lower levels. Maybe a geo-political event over the weekend to start proceedings, or a few more days higher to really get the FOMO going.. Either way I hope this helps. Enjoy the day!! 👍👍
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by L_F