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US Market Technicals Ahead (9 August – 13 August 2021)With U.S. CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) reversing its stance on mask for vaccinated people amid the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic, Investors will be watching closely on the main U.S. economic data reports on consumer and producer price inflation for any potential scale back of stimulus by the Federal Reserve. Several Fed officials are slated to speak during the week and their comments could help clarify the Fed’s position on tapering. Earnings will continue but will be fewer in number as earnings season winds down. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The US market ended at all time highs on Friday, after monthly U.S. jobs report came in better than expected, as the economy continues to navigate out from the COVID-19 pandemic. The benchmark index $SPX ended the week gaining +0.79% (+34.9 points), closing at 4,438 level. $SPX remains above its multi-month long trend channel that was earlier highlighted. Every break out of $SPX trend channel resistance has been met with a rejection (6 times since 2021). It is also important to note of the diminishing volume observed, reflecting a short term price-volume divergence in this run up. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is revised up to 4,370 level; a breakdown of two weeks price support. Inflation numbers The U.S. consumer price index and the producer price index released Wednesday and Thursday, respectively will provide an insight into the current pace of inflation, one of the key factors along with the labor market, that the Fed looks at when making its monetary policy decisions. CPI is expected to moderate slightly after last month’s jump of 0.9%, the strongest gain since June 2008. The Fed has said the current surge in inflation is just temporary, but market sentiment has been hit by fears of higher inflation resulting in a sudden tapering. Friday’s stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report was the last before the Fed gathers for its annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the end of the month to discuss policy and decide future stimulus strategy. The upbeat jobs numbers coupled with uncomfortably hot inflation data could prompt Fed officials to announce plans to begin tapering bond purchases as soon as September, the first step down the road to eventual interest rate hikes. Earnings wind down Earnings will continue in the coming week, but the number of companies reporting will tail off as earnings season continues to wind down. Some of the names reporting include AMC Entertainment ($AMC), Coinbase Global Inc ($COIN), Sysco ($SYY), Chesapeake Energy ($CHK), eBay ($EBAY), Wendy’s ($WEN), Lordstown Motors ($RIDE), Walt Disney ($DIS) and Airbnb ($ABNB). It has been a stellar earnings season – out of the 427 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 87.6% beat analyst expectations, the highest on record. Bitcoin higher as sentiment recovers Bitcoin rose to its highest level in two months on Sunday as market sentiment recovered but remined fragile. The digital currency hit $45,284, its highest since mid-June. One area of uncertainty for crypto investors is the U.S. infrastructure bill currently making its way through Congress, which contains a cryptocurrency tax provision, tacked on at the last minute.
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by jfsrevg
Trade Idea on CRM - Trading the Flag PatternHi! Today we will share with you a trade idea (real setup we will execute on CRM) First, let's understand what we can see here from a technical perspective. a) The price was inside an expanding structure defined by the dynamic support-resistance trendline (white line) and the support level. b) After a huge GAP that broke the expanding structure, we observed a 270 days consolidation (Flag Pattern). c) In June, we saw the breakout of the Flag Pattern that tends to anticipate the beginning of a new movement once the price reaches a specific confirmation level (ABOVE "B") d) Based on the previous items, we have defined pending orders above "B" and stop loss below "C" the key idea of these levels is that they are on price levels that provide good confirmations in term of broken levels. This type of approach increases the possibility of success. e) What about the target? We have used a principle developed by Elliott, "New Impulses have correlations with the previous ones." In this case, using the previous impulse (Before the Flag Pattern), we can draw Fibonacci Extensions (nothing more than fixed proportions) to define 2 targets. f) How long can it take this movement if everything goes as expected? Between 200 and 350 days. g) How much do you risk in a setup like this? ALWAYS 1% OF our capital, never more. What does it mean? If you have a 10.000USD balance, you want to have a maximum loss of 100USD if the price reaches the stop loss. Is this a forecast? Not at all; this is a scenario that our system tells us, "Here you have a 50% chance of having a winning setup, with a risk-reward ratio of 2.36" With that clear, this is a bet we will take 100 times. The most probable thing is that we will be wrong 50 times and right other 50. Our main goal is developing a positive expectancy over the long term. In other words, "an edge." Thanks for reading!
NYSE:CRMLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
I MADE THIS FOR YOUUUU!!!Drink...my....HOT......KOOLAID!!!!! Just my observations looking back on all the events during this credit expansion cycle. VERY interesting when you look at the RSI indicator below. Look at all the historical market events that correlate to exact tests. ***The Cryptocurrency markets will lead the way off the cliff. We may have already started... I really don't know if we're going to 100k but I am holding my crypto still because it is the future. Think about it. The best performing assets usually are the ones that crash and pop the bubble because they pumped the bubble up so much. What has been the best performing asset over the last 10 years? Crypto. I love crypto and know blockchain is the future, but my blockchain friends need to remember that crypto will most likely crash similar to the 1929 crash. We'll wipe away all the bad cryptos and fakes by devastating the market so badly that only the real projects stay. Those will be the Amazon, Apple, and Google of crypto. If you have cash at the bottom of the crash and are able to invest then, you could be set for life. Should be able to buy a country if you figure out how to short this correctly. I appreciate any advice you experts may have. Buying VXX puts seems to be the general consensus. Maybe 1-2 years out?... I've only traded for 6 years so I'm still trying to understand the markets. (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Just what I'm seeing.)
DJ:DJIShort
by MonetaryRebel
2
FINAL WARNINGI am OUT. This is getting crazy and I am pretty gosh darn confident in this count!! The RSI readings match the wave count as well. Red Box = retest of the momentum resistance, indicative of a wave 5. Yellow boxes = I zoomed into just that final wave 5 we've been in for 12+ years and it has retested 3 times! I'm seriously creeped out. *My theory is that once the public realizes that inflation will not be transitory and that all their expenses are going up, the musical chairs game is going to end. No shame in taking some profit at least if you've been in this market for a long time. THIS IS NOT a correction that I can advise you just hold through. THIS IS depression-like correction that's coming. You're gonna be holding the bag for probably 20-30 years before we get back up to these prices. Please prove me wrong. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE.
TVC:DJIShort
by MonetaryRebel
12
Nasdaq - the beginning of wave (iv) ?After the NASDQ reached my target for wave iii, the index shows a clear reaction. This could be the start of the corrective wave iv. A first clear sign of wave iv would be a sale below 13774. Then I expect prices around the stored trading area around 13550. This would be the ideal target of wave iv as long as no new highs are built. If this is the case, the trading area shifts upwards. I will specify this area in the next update as soon as the high is confirmed. The primary expectation is still that we see prices in the 14350 range in form of a wave v. 45min: H4:
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by TizTrader
3
US MARKET - 10 YEAR FORECAST Hey guys. Today we are dealing with the question of how I assess the market over a long period of time. Basically, I'm very bullish for the next few years. This analysis is based on the elliott wave calculation and has cost a lot of time. The stock market is a game of probabilities. And here you can see my primary scenario for one of the most important US indices. My thesis is that we are in the middle of the longest bull market. This analysis ignores any fundamental data. In my opinion, these are not important for this either. I don't care when the Fed speaks. I don't care how corona develops. I don't care how much money is printed. All of these factors are not taken into account! Just elliott waves and the natural market cycle;) Overall, we are in a strong upward movement, and based on my calculations, I forecast a target area of around 7000. Only then I see possible a “crash”. I did not include a time calculation in this analysis. But I'm talking about several years here :) I have also prepared my short-term scenario: There we are in a subordinate wave 3 with a high probability. My mid term target is around 4668 - 4700. With a lower probability, this could still be wave 2, so that a further correction in the 3900 range is possible. But this scenario is only to be considered secondary. Currently the target 4238 has to be overcome. After that, the probability increases that we will go up to 4600-4700 (you can see my specific numbers in the chart). If you have any questions, let me know. And for everyone who thinks that this is total nonsense: deal with the elliott waves and the technical analysis. Then you will be able to understand it too;)
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by TizTrader
18
Look At This! Please.An extremely rare pattern for an extremely rare time in the U.S. Ending Expanding Diagonal patterns are not seen very often. Not a natural looking pattern because the wild price swings aren't natural. You know what else isn't natural? The M1 money supply increase from 4 trillion to OVER 18 TRILLION in 2020. They increase the money supply by over 400%!! Why do you think Bitcoin and blockchain is getting so much support? Because people are realizing this ship is SINKING!!! Why do you think decentralized finance is manifesting? You think that's random? No!! Things are created when someone see's a need and the world reaffirms the value in it through their belief and investment. A break back below 3,800 would be a major sell signal for me and a break below 3,200 indicates the end of the bull market. Not financial advice. Just what I'm seeing and what makes sense to me based on the data, wave counts, and price action. I appreciate feedback on my wave counts though, so feel free to comment that I'm an idjit if you want.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by MonetaryRebel
1
SPX BREAKS 4000Following my last post, the daily Supertrend line at 4011 was broken on 010421.More significantly, the SPX starts of the trading month of April 2021 positive bullish in the long term since the bullish breakout of the Supertrend line at 3654 on 011220. The disposition of the SPX 500 is now BULLISH on all time frames. Attach also is the Fibonacci Extension projection for new ALL TIME HIGH price targets on the daily charts that sets 4124 (1) and 4291 (1.618) RESPECTIVELY. LONG TERM UPTREND since 011220 MEDIUM TERM UPTREND since 01020 SHORT TERM UPTREND since 270321 PIVOT 3891 Long positions above 3891 for 4124 and 4291 Short positions below 3891 for 3626 and 3221
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by gekkohot
How high can the market go? Gold XAUUSD AnalysisTrading Idea: Long Buy Area below: $1,770 Stop Loss: $1,735 Take Profit: $1,880 Today Gold reached levels below $1,770, before bouncing back above $1,800. It lost a bit more than 14% since the last surge marking an all-time-high level above $2,070. Investors turned to riskier assets since the popular vote chose Biden as the 44th President of the USA. On the Monday that the the results were confirmed the markets surged and Gold took the bears having the first hit which continued with a bloodpath as Pfizer announced positive news for their early results from the coronavirus vaccine trial with their 90% effectiveness. Optimism continues with more Companies releasing covid-19 vaccine effective rates and countries laying out their plans on distribution dates to citizens. At the same time those events could either be the prophecies that things are actually going good or smoke around the huge bubble before a highly anticipated crash of the markets. Fiscal and monetary policies are testing the nerves of the markets. The world economy is standing on stimulus plans. How high can the market go? On Tuesday, one day after Cyber Monday and Black Friday, the markets surged and visited uncharted territory. This makes it a good potential opportunity to go long and find support levels to enter. You can see our support and resistance levels indicating the area the market will be bouncing within the borders.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by pipsinsider
2