S&P BULLISH BIAS & CONTINUATIONThe TVC:SPX rose 3.2% last week finally closing above the last previous high at around 2940. This indicates to me that there are still a lot of buyers in the market, the likelihood is that price will continue to make gains in the following weeks. If there is a decline in price, a good buying area (depending on price action) to jump onto the trend will be around the 2800 region.
My preference however is over the coming weeks too see if price is able to clear and retest the 3000 handle, if this becomes a reality this is where I will look to add some more positions.
Usmarkets
Is the "Big Short" coming now!? Here is a very bearish elliottwave count which possibly could play out as economic trembles from corona crises worsens. (Dont worry I have also other buillish counts which are possible, none the less this bearish one is for the moment not off the table). This scenario takes into account that new lower lows under the "corona" low are coming.
Sp500 idea Key points:
- DJY retesting after breakout
- Nasdaq trading at the bottom of a bullish flag
SP500;
if DJY confirms a down trend after retesting resistance at the breakout level we might see spx500 being dragged down otherwise this will bring Sp500 up to retest 200EMA again
US30 - Dow Jones DJY short H&S breakout H&S breakout
price came up with secent bullish strength to retest
It's a good risk reward shorting opportunity at the resistance level
S&P 500 $SPX2797 is the confirmation support for double top. There is 50SMA support (2721) between target price and confirmation support. RSI is just below 50 and we don't it to go far away from 50 not to be in bearish side. and moro ever, there is gap (at 2538) waiting to be filled. so corona virus news will affect the direction of the market.
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US Markets Defy gravity - S&P / DOW JONES Weekly Consideration S&P: If P action in the next week closes below the orange line at 2723.3 attention will turn more bearish and watch for market to fall to 2460.2. In this instance will reassess market dynamics as it may bounce in this range or continue to fall
Dow: The same flows for Dow Jones with P action in the next week close below the orange line at 22931.5 attention will turn more bearish and watch for market to fall to 20842.4. In this instance will reassess market dynamics as it may bounce in this range or continue to fall
If markets stay above these initial levels for the next 3 months (i’ll be surprised) however this will look like economies are back in order from COVID-19 and running ‘normal economics’
The above is a very basic observation at present as I scan charts. Larger write up to come, stay tuned.
(Print source set to close)
KO - Eyes open - Idea coca-colaAnother good opportunity
If the price gets rejected at the top we enter short towards to the 61.8% Fibo as it is breaking the triangle.
61.8% fibo range is the sweet spot to enter long if the above scenario happens.
In case we see a breakout of the tunnel before geting to 61.8%, wait to retest the tunnel confirming support to enter long.
WMT - Walmart - keep the eyes on this Big move incoming here for Walmart
the patter is completed. It looks like we have a massive H&S.
The earnings can be a game changer on this stock. The date is approaching to report earnings and although people are buying more the operational costs have also increased which means the earnings might not be as positive as some people expect.
If we see bearish movement increasing we can possible break the H&S and have a really good margin for profit shorting this.
S&P500 down move potentially coming. The American market index has reached a crucial price area. The corona crash has been 61.8% retraced, further we can see a 3-Wave ABC move. The C-Leg is now in the crucial area of 100-123.6%. However the S&P500 can well still reach the 3000 level in price before turning.
NASDAQ Doesn't Make Any Sense Anymore! But let's earn some moneyWe know it's wrong. We know it's unsustainable. There's a Corona Crisis. There's unsustainable growth. There are huge unemployement issues. Crazy deathrates.
Stockmarkets are surging.
No, it doesn't make any sense. But to make a decision on this trade when the price hit this support zone so beautifully we have to look at the data. Purely based on technical analysis I expect the price to break out.
Okay, we could look at fundamental information like how the technology sector might not be negatively impacted by corona as much as the other sectors. Not just because their products are all online, and people have to arrange their whole life online right now. Also because the people who work for those companies are much more comfortable and capable working from home.
But hey, look at other markets that are not technology based. All green. All going up. This doesn't make any sense to me. Let's earn some money.
It already tried this level one time before, and only bounced back a little bit. With this second attempt on the resistance the bulls will be stronger and have left many bears behind them.
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SPX: Trump was elected at 2200Hi Guys,
long time since the last time. I hope you are all well and fine.
Let's dive into it!
March 23 - FED announced it would buy bonds in unlimited numbers and backstop direct loans to companies, the latest in a series of policy steps taken over the past 10 days to calm markets and support the economy.
(www.reuters.com)
SPX bounced at 2200 (red dotted line) which is the starting point of Trump's US Presidency.
Please click & play the following chart posted on Feb 29 (Sat) in order to review the informations and watch it unfold:
March 3 (Tue) - by cutting rates the FED managed to slow it down at 2950 but the effects of the emergency measures did not last long:(www.reuters.com)
March 9 (Mon) - market keep falling. Please click & play the following chart posted on March 6 (Fri) in order to review the informations and watch it unfold:
Just to note that the FED held 6 meetings in March to calm markets. (www.federalreserve.gov).
TECHNICAL:
- price below 200SMA (as in 2015/2016 and in 2018/2019) currently supported at 2200 (A);
- price pulling back from 2200 (A) in what may be a bear rally into 200SMA at approx 50% of Covid19 downtrend from (0 zero);
- VIX maybe on its way below 30 again;
Questions:
1) how long will it take for the market to cross and consolidate above 200SMA and resume Progress again?
2) what what kind of recession is the COVID-19 recession going to be? V-Shaped? L-Shaped? W-Shaped?
3) Is this a virus-related recession, or is it the one economists said was on the horizon?
For information iro The Flash Recession (2nd circle in red) please review the following chart posted on Apr.7, 2019:
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
S&P500 could see short-side soon as inching closer to 50%The S&P500 is reaching a resistance area and showed a sell off yesterday. However the 50% level has not quite been reached and could still be in play with another pull up. Downside potential is favorable at the moment therefore I am looking for reversing signals