$USO crash before the bull market starts?I originally thought that we'd see a move higher off the bounce from $69, however the chart has now morphed and looks more bearish than it did over the summer.
If we break the trend line to the downside, then I think it's likely that we can see a crash to the $40 region before the bull market in oil really starts.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming months.
USO
Opening (IRA): USO January 17th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.72 break even.
Comments: Dinking and doinking on USO at /CL <$70/bbl.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 66.72
Max Profit: 1.38
ROC at Max: 2.07%
50% Max: .69
ROC at 50% Max: 1.04%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; add if I can get in at better break evens/strike prices.
Opening (IRA): USO Jan 17th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.89 break even.
Comments: With 42 DTE in the January monthly, adding a "rung" to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on at the 68, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The ROC at max isn't stellar here with the usual metric I'm looking for being at least 2.0%.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.89/share
Max Profit: 1.11
ROC at Max: 1.71%
50% Max: .56
ROC at 50% Max: .86%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test of my take profit at 65.45.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.48 debit.
Comments: Back into the slippery stuff with /CL trading at 70.48. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
My basic approach here is to dink and donk on the underlying when /CL is at $70/bbl. or below.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 66.48
Max Profit: 1.52
ROC at Max: 2.29%
50% Max: .76
ROC at 50% Max: 1.15%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out short call on take profit test. I'll also look to add "rungs" should I be able to do so at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.74 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens than what I currently have on ... . Selling the -75 call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.74
Max Profit: 1.26
ROC at Max: 1.95%
50% Max: .63
ROC at 50% Max: .97%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out call on test.
Opening (IRA): USO Oct 18th 69 Monied Covered Call... for a 67.44 debit.
Comments: This isn't as low as I wanted to get in, but the short call is below where I would've entered would have to have been more patient and waited for 70. In any event, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.44/share
Max Profit: 1.56 ($156)
ROC at Max: 2.31%
ROC at 50% Max: .78 ($78)
ROC at 50% Max: 1.16%
Take profit at 50% max; roll in-profit short call to maintain net delta <30.
Opened (IRA): USO Dec 20th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.26 debit.
Comments: (Late Post). High IV (67.7% as of Tuesday close) + weakness.
Added a "rung" to my existing position at a strike better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.26
Max Profit: 1.74
ROC at Max: 2.84%
50% Max: .87
ROC at 50% Max: 1.42%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out in-profit short call on test of take profit. Here, the 50% max take profit would be .87 + 61.26 or 62.13.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 65 Covered Call... for a 62.41 break even.
Comments: High IVR/IV (79/51) plus weakness. Adding a rung to my USO position out in December at break evens better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 62.41
Max Profit: 2.59
ROC at Max: 4.15%
50% Max: 1.30
ROC at 50% Max: 2.07%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; look to roll out the short call on test.
Opening (IRA): USO Nov 15th 67 Covered Call... for a 65.26 debit.
Comments: Adding a rung at strike prices better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 65.26
Max Profit: 1.74 ($174)
ROC at Max: 2.67%
50% Max: .87
ROC at 50% Max: 1.33%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out the short call on side test.
Opening (IRA): USO Nov 15th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.27 debit.
Comments: Adding to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on (the Nov 15th 67's and the Dec 20th 69's). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.27/share
Max Profit: 1.73 ($173)
ROC at Max: 2.82%
50% Max: .87 ($87)
ROC at 50% Max: 1.41%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on side test.
Is Global Oil Demand the Key to Energy Market Stability?In the intricate landscape of global energy markets, the question of oil demand remains a central enigma. Driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production strategies, and economic dynamics, global oil demand is a complex tapestry that shapes the future of energy markets.
Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have historically been a significant driver of oil price volatility. The recent escalation of tensions has once again underscored the delicate balance between geopolitical stability and global oil supply. As geopolitical risks rise, so too does the price of oil, impacting investors in oil-related securities like the United States Oil Fund (USO).
However, geopolitical factors are just one piece of the puzzle. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, play a crucial role in regulating global oil supply. Their production decisions, often influenced by economic considerations and geopolitical pressures, can significantly impact oil prices and, consequently, global oil demand.
Beyond geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ dynamics, economic factors also play a vital role in shaping global oil demand. The global economy, with its cyclical nature, influences energy consumption. During periods of economic growth, oil demand tends to increase, while economic downturns can lead to reduced consumption.
The interplay between geopolitical risks, OPEC+ strategies, and economic factors creates a complex and dynamic environment for the global oil market. Understanding these intricate relationships is essential for investors seeking to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the oil sector.
Crude Oil vs Silveris Cheap AgainThe chart shows USOIL relative to Silver in a buy area again.
USO (Crude oil futures ETF) is favorable choice to invest in crude oil since it benefits from current backwardation in future contracts.
Target for USO : $80
Time period: 3 months.
Trade suggestion:
Buy USO at 73
Sell Covered call at 75 for Dec above $3.65-$4 per share premium.