Get started

USO

WTI Crude Oil Futures: The Chokers of the Global EconomyLast Friday, January 10, 2025, the United States announced its most sweeping and aggressive sanctions against Russian oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House and is replaced by Donald Trump. In fact, it was more of a soap opera at first, as an unofficial document of unknown origin on the subject of sanctions had been circulating on the Web since the Fridays' morning before the official press release from the US Treasury appeared, causing the stock quotes of the companies affected by the sanctions to experience increased volatility in Friday trading on the local exchange. Finally, about 160 oil tankers were sanctioned, and India, a key buyer of seaborne barrels, will not allow ships to call at its ports after the end of the curtailment period in March. If these measures remain in place under Trump, they have a better chance of disrupting Russian oil exports than anything any Western power has done so far. In addition to the tankers, sanctions were imposed on two major producers and exporters, traders arranging hundreds of shipments were listed, major insurers were named and two U.S. oil service providers were ordered to leave. A Chinese oil terminal operator was also included. The measures could theoretically reduce what the International Energy Agency forecasts as a supply glut of nearly 1 million barrels a day this year. Brent and WTI crude futures, which have generally traded lower for the past two and a half years, ended Friday at $80, data from ICE Futures Europe and CME Group's Nymex show. Surgutneftegaz Sanctions RUS:SNGS and Gazpromneft RUS:SIBN are by far the most direct and aggressive move taken so far by Washington or any other Western power. Together, the two companies shipped about 970,000 barrels of oil per day by sea in 2024, and their inclusion on the list will be a cause for concern for refineries in India as well as state-owned companies in China. Putting their seaborne flows in context, that’s more than the global supply glut the International Energy Agency predicts for 2025. It’s also nearly 30% of Russia’s seaborne exports. No one is suggesting that either company’s shipments will be completely shut down, but the fact that they are under sanctions, as well as other measures announced, means that supply chain disruptions and supply shortages cannot be ruled out. Global markets, which were also hit by the December NFP report, reacted as expected. The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, the U.S. dollar index TVC:DXY rocketed to the moon while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds TVC:TNX jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average - a benchmark for the global economy - ended last week lower for a sixth straight week, while Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bears are already dreaming to enter a Bear Market, approaching a 20% decline from the highs of around $108,000 reached in December 2024. The technical main graph is dedicated specifically to WTI oil futures (the contract following the expiring one), and supported by the averages of the 5- and 10-year SMA. It points to the reversal of the disinflationary time span seen in the previous two and a half years, from mid-2022. // Don't say "hop" , before you throned 😏
NYMEX:CL2!
by Pandorra
2
Opening (IRA): USO February 21st 79/April 17th 107 PMCP** -- Poor Man's Covered Put Comments: Shorting USO on strength using a long put diagonal/Poor Man's Covered Put, buying the back month 90 delta put and selling the front month 30 that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 22.96 debit Break Even: 84.04 Max Profit: 5.04 ROC at Max: 21.95% 50% Max: 2.52 ROC at 50% Max: 10.98% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short put on approaching worthless.
AMEX:USOShort
by NaughtyPines
Crude Opportunity Part 2In this second part, the Crude Futures Daily chart is used. In this chart, there are marked points where the SuperTrend Buy signal is triggered and is coincided by a green Rate of VolDiv (RoVD, bottom panel). There is one on 8 October but there was no comcomitant indication and clearly it "failed". The others that fulfilled the condition are marked with a yellow time line. So clearly, the recent breakout is projected to have something similar in terms of a bullish rally. This is in line with the weekly outlook. Together with technical indicators like the RoVD, as well as the MACD where there is a clear breakout support, Crude appears to have much upside potential. However, there is no rush as it just met the trendline resistance and is expected to pull back a bit to retest and breakout again for the longer term. Overall, this looks not like a spike out of fear, but one spurred by inflation. This is in the MUST WATCH list for sure and an accumulation plan should be in place. A projected path is drawn as a guide and the target for Crude is 100-105.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Crude Opportunity Part 1Previously, heads up about BTCUSD and it was pretty spot-on. Oddly enough, CRUDE OIL CL1! is next. For the first part, here we look at the marked time lines, and the effect after these time lines. 5 of the last 6 times, saw a bullish rally. Of these, 4 of the 5 occasions had the Rate of VolDiv (custom indicator) trend changed for an uptick. In essence, the current weekly Crude Oil Futures CL1! show a similar set up ready for a spike and rally for Crude Oil. No fundamental reason (yet) but the technicals are projecting a billish scenario based on the technical set up. Part 2 will look more in-depth and zoom into the recent time frame... Stay tuned if you are keen...
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Bearish drop?USO/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 70.64 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 71.66 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 69.35 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
1
Opening (IRA): USO Jan 17th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.89 break even. Comments: With 42 DTE in the January monthly, adding a "rung" to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on at the 68, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The ROC at max isn't stellar here with the usual metric I'm looking for being at least 2.0%. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.89/share Max Profit: 1.11 ROC at Max: 1.71% 50% Max: .56 ROC at 50% Max: .86% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test of my take profit at 65.45.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.48 debit. Comments: Back into the slippery stuff with /CL trading at 70.48. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. My basic approach here is to dink and donk on the underlying when /CL is at $70/bbl. or below. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 66.48 Max Profit: 1.52 ROC at Max: 2.29% 50% Max: .76 ROC at 50% Max: 1.15% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out short call on take profit test. I'll also look to add "rungs" should I be able to do so at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.74 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens than what I currently have on ... . Selling the -75 call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.74 Max Profit: 1.26 ROC at Max: 1.95% 50% Max: .63 ROC at 50% Max: .97% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out call on test.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO Oct 18th 69 Monied Covered Call... for a 67.44 debit. Comments: This isn't as low as I wanted to get in, but the short call is below where I would've entered would have to have been more patient and waited for 70. In any event, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.44/share Max Profit: 1.56 ($156) ROC at Max: 2.31% ROC at 50% Max: .78 ($78) ROC at 50% Max: 1.16% Take profit at 50% max; roll in-profit short call to maintain net delta <30.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opened (IRA): USO Dec 20th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.26 debit. Comments: (Late Post). High IV (67.7% as of Tuesday close) + weakness. Added a "rung" to my existing position at a strike better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.26 Max Profit: 1.74 ROC at Max: 2.84% 50% Max: .87 ROC at 50% Max: 1.42% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out in-profit short call on test of take profit. Here, the 50% max take profit would be .87 + 61.26 or 62.13.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines