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USO

Crude Oil UP ah!For the past month or so, been talking about higher Crude prices in the making. Here we are closer to that... The Weekly chart closed at a monthly high, and with such gusto that it is the most bullish looking candle in the past 6 weeks! This came after many indications and warnings from weekly candlestick patterns and daily technicals as outlined previously in the last couple of weeks. So, now the weekly technical indicators are showing a bullish turn. The daily chart have a late week Crude Oil price spike, that is meeting a gap resistance, and the coming week should break through... this is supported by the RPM and MACD technicals. 125 then 155... and this is an off-cycle surge, so am expecting a quick surge really.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
USO: Springy 👟👟USO seems to have put on its extra springy sneakers as it has jumped up into the green zone between $83.54 and $87.83 quite briskly after pressing against it for some time. Now, it should finish wave B in green in this region and subsequently turn around to move downwards. On its way, USO should then drop back below $82.48 and also fall below the support lines at $67.68 and $62.92 to reach the yellow zone between $60.18 and $43.48, where wave (2) in yellow should end.
AMEX:USO
by MarketIntel
Crude Oil clear breakoutCrude oil, as previously heads up, has broken out of its triangle decisively. It is now needed to clear 120 to continue its uptrend comfortably, with a near term target of 125. Nonetheless, daily technicals are supportive, with bullish candlestick patterns, so 125 target is deemed reasonably attainable. Longer term upside targets are 155-160, by early June, which is a little quick on the rise IMHO. *updated chart from previously, with slight adjustments.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil giving a heads up onto a massive breakoutI have not seen such bullish candlestick patterns for a very long time now... The weekly chart had an amazing weekly candle where it is a T type doji, with indications of massive upward momentum, pushing with upward pressure. This comes in tow with two or three previous long tail pattern, and the weekly close is highest in the past 6 weeks. Weekly MACD appear to be turning up again, although not yet crossed over. The Daily chart shows how the week developed, with a mid-week bullish engulfing, and a follow through to the end of the week, with a solid bullish marubozu. Just plain bullish indications, if you ask me. Technicals are again turning upwards, supporting the upward march. Simple projections bring Crude to USD124 at the very least, by end May 2022. And... this is just the beginning. Fair warning given previously... now, it is looking that previous expectations are panning out.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
USO: StairwalkerUSO has planned a tough workout on the stairwalker. After finishing wave iii in turquoise in the upper turquoise zone between $76.92 and $75.60, it should move upwards to complete wave iv in turquoise. Then, USO should drop into the lower turquoise zone between $73.45 and $72.12 to end waves v in turquoise and 1 in green. Following another countermovement into the green zone between $77.71 and $81.57, where wave 2 in green should end, USO should fall below the support at $67.68 and the one at $62.92. There, it should enter the yellow zone between $60.18 and $43.48 to finish waves 3 in green, c in orange and (2) in yellow.
AMEX:USO
by MarketIntel
Crude Oil continues upward momentumAs projected previously, Crude Oil prices are spiking and momentum continue to suggest that it is on track, and just might accelerate. Weekly chart closed with bullish momentum pattern and above average of the recent weeks. Long lower tails and close near the weekly tops suggest bullish momentum (also picking up?) The daily chart is now holding above a consolidation range, and technicals support the upward push to the next higher level. Closing above 120 will firmly put 165 in the target zone.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
1
Crude Oil breakout to the upsideIn an earlier (longer range) post, Crude to spike over USD150 this time... , Crude oil, energy were already earmarked for an upside spike in the coming weeks to months. Yesterday, due to a EU proposal to have a Russian oil ban including an embargo on crude in six months , it sent prices rocketing over 5% for yesterday. This rise was probably fueled further by FOMC's decision not to raise rates by more than 50 basis points. Some ambiguity in the interpretation but it was overall viewed as positive for demand, etcc. The close was nicely above the gap resistance, and so far in Asian trading hours appear to be continuing the uptrend, keeping well clear of the gap range reopening (yellow box) Based on shorter term projections, the triangle breakout targets USD126 in mid-May. MACD is supportive with a widening above the zero line. We have to wait and see if the acceleration picks up over the next two weeks. Short term target close USD126 Longer term target USD165 Please be prepared, a lot of inflationary pain will flow downstream...
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
2
United States Oil FundNo clue how I found this chart, however, with looming concerns on various market, political and world disaster fronts - commodities, specifically OIL has been a major topic. I still have to do some research on what this fund actually represents, however, I know for a fact it is at a key price point technically. TECHNICALS Widening downward cone At diagonal + horizontal resistance Fundamental factors could flip this level into support RED trendline is a long term TL that has served as a sort of mean reversion point since the beginning of this fund. With price now on the right side of this line, this could be bullish when paired with everything else. BELOW: Long term charts on the WEEKLY and MONTHLY timeframes. Also something that should be noted - This security is also listed on FTX as a synthetic stock token. Previous analyses related to OIL linked below.
AMEX:USO
by N0ST0PL0SS
Crude to spike over USD150 this time...Crude aooears to have broken out of trendline resistance, particularly on the daily chart. Closing today above 107.60 would launch the next rally. Fibonacci projections set target about USD165, about mid-June. The weekly chart candlestick is also forming what might be a bullish candlestick with a long shadow at the bottom, suggesting upward momentum. Daily technicals are already indicating the inevitable. Follow through would also mean some rather significant events in either disruption, conflict, or massive return of consumption. Brace brace brace!!!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
5
United States Oil Fund (USA: $USO) Is Still Mega-Bullish! 🔥The United States Oil Fund® LP (USO) is an exchange-traded security whose shares may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca. USO’s investment objective is for the daily changes, in percentage terms, of its shares’ net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the spot price of light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Specifically, USO seeks for the average daily percentage change in USO’s net asset value, for any period of 30 successive valuation days, to be within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.
AMEX:USOLong
by Bullishcharts
1
Is BTC Inflation Proof? Is BTC Solid against Inflation? Well, my little inquisitive love muffins, let’s find out! What is inflation? Inflation refers to the increase in prices of goods AND services within an economy. It is commonly referred to devaluation of the dollar. What causes inflation? Complex question that maybe many don’t agree on but in essence; - Excessive money printing by the Federal Government (i.e. the Venezuela crises and kind of like North America now); - Central bank policy, regulations and laws (i.e. 1970s inflation crises) - Availability of goods and services (i.e. currently) - List goes on Theoretical basis for the position that BTC is inflation proof? I think different arguments have been advanced for this, but in general, under the law in North America (Canada and the USA), BTC and Cryptocurrency is not actually considered a currency. It is classified as a “good” (and there is a reason for this, that being TAXATION! If the Government recognized Crypto as a currency, they would not be able to legally tax you on it, so you can BET that Crypto will NEVER be considered a currency!!!). Yes, you can use Crypto to buy things, but at the end of the day, policy and regulation views Crypto as a “good” that a person “owns”. And thus, the presumption would be, if it is a good and inflation causes prices of goods to rise, then BTC should, technically, rise with the price of goods and services. So is BTC inflation proof? Quick answer is, not really in the way that I think people intended it to be. But so far, sort of. Long answer, below: What is Cryptocurrency, really? Its interesting, I was excited to write this post because in law school I had to write a legal brief on what the classification of Ethereum should be under the law in Canada (I argued a security like a stock). And what’s interesting is Crypto in general and BTC generally behave like a stock! And particularly they behave like a growth stock. They grow with time and peoples’ interest, and continued investment of holders (or should I say HOLDERS? Is that the term?). I recently did an analysis on BTC where I briefly compared it to SPY (S&P 500) and we saw BTC had much better growth than SPY but was behaving quite similarly to SPY. And BTC and other Cryptos have all they key makings of a stock, you can hold them on a exchange, trade them either on an exchange or through blockchain, buy, sell, short, long, hold, etc. While, it is not IDENTICAL to a stock, the key makeup is there (at least, legally and technically). And, perhaps unfortunately or perhaps not so unfortunately, depending on your stance, BTC and Crypto has begun to follow the market almost to a T. In preparing to write this, I correlated BTC to 3 other equities, SPY (S&P 500 ETF), USO (United States Oil ETF), GLD (Gold ETF) and VNQ (Real-Estate Index ETF). I will post the raw statistical data in the image below. In this chart, we look at the Pearson Correlation (or R value, you linear regression analysts will know this well!) to determine the strength of the relationship. And we see, BTC has a HUGELY strong POSITIVE relationship to SPY. What does that mean? It means, we can expect BTC to follow SPY fairly consistently. In fact, from this degree of a relationship, I can actually use BTC data to accurately predict SPY data (like highs, lows, ranges, etc.) without even looking at SPY data. That is how strong the relationship is! Inversely, we see a really and NEGATIVE relationship between BTC and OIL, and that is shared between SPY and OIL, which means that Oil will do the INVERSE of SPY and BTC. SPY and BTC go up, Oil will likely go down, etc. So what does it all mean? Well, it means a couple of things: - BTC behaves like a growth stock. This, in general, is neutral, it’s neither good nor bad. And I would argue its kind of good because we buy BTC with the aspiration of it “going to the moon”. - BTC is vulnerable to market conditions. There is just no way to deny this unfortunately. The relationship BTC has wit the market is undeniable statistically and I would be feeding you lies if I said “its okay, its completely independent of the market, you will be fine”. Because, the statistics are strong and compelling here. - That said, just because BTC follows the market, does not mean it will behave in the same way as other growth stocks. This is the area that we still don’t know for sure. As of right now, BTC is actually trading normally (you can refer to my other post), meaning that it has not sold off to a point where BTC would be considered “negative growth”. IF you look at PayPal stock, that stock has sold off into negative growth. Same with NFLX. BTC has not! It is still holding its, let’s call it “statistically expected” value based on its position as a growth “good”. Just because BTC follows SPY, does not mean that the annualized return rates and value are identical (GLD has technically outperformed SPY and it still is fairly strongly linked to SPY). It just means, the behaviour is similar. And because it currently retains its expected value, we can say that so far it has technically warded off inflation. Yes, there is some devaluation here, but this devaluation cannot be attributed to inflation alone at this point in time, because this devaluation is a “statistically expected” happening in the lifespan of BTC, whether there be inflation or not (I am trying to explain this as simply as I can haha). - The other thing is, BTC and Crypto has a sizeable fan base and a sizeable portion of the population that may think that this will aid in holding off inflation. Thus we may see more people place larger holdings into BTC and Crypto in general during times of high inflation, which would ultimately cause the price to rise and thus, at least at face value, appear to be warding off inflation dramas. Conclusion So, should you buy BTC to ward off inflation? My answer is, it depends. If you are TRULY concerned about inflation and inflation alone and you have a sizeable net worth that you want to guard against inflation and you are nearing retirement or you may need a sizeable portion of this money in the near future, then no. The answer is no. You should follow conventional recommendations of financial analysts and invest in Gold, commodities, bonds, etc. Consult with a Financial Planner for sure, but I wouldn’t recommend BTC. Anyone else, my motto is diversification! I wouldn’t put all my eggs in one basket, but investing in BTC or Ethereum or Doge, it wouldn’t hurt. I personally have a sizeable holding in Tezos (XTZ) that I continually add to every once in a while and stake. DO I think its going to protect me against inflation? No, probably not, but that’s not the point. I believe in it, I like it, I think it has potential and if it does ward off inflation, well, great! At the end of the day, there is more chance that Tezos or BTC will increase dramatically in price than say Gold or commodities. Yes, Gold is a stable investment, but its not going to go “to the moon” anytime soon. That's it! Thanks for reading! These are my opinions that I have drawn from a look at math and chart based data. It is not financial advice. If you are truly concerned about inflation, I would advise speaking to a financial advisor. These markets can be difficult to navigate! Let me know your questions/comments/critiques below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Steversteves
10
Crude spikes... how now, brown cow?And so, Crude spiked, and well above 100 as expected . This defying feat was not quite aligned to the weekly technical indicators, I must say. Nonetheless, the weekly candle itself had bullish lower tails and ended the week near the top. So, appears to continue spiking... perhaps above USD120, at least. The daily chart is rather interesting to me... on Mon, it was resting on a support and did look like it was going to continue the slide, having broken the 55EMA. Then the next three days totally about turned and started spiking. In doing so, it broke out of a trendline (or triangle), and the projections for the upside target is about USD140, at the end of April, or as we turn into May. (green arrow trajectories) Technicals for the daily chart are now turning upwards and bullish in support as well. Technicals aside, this spike and continued bullish momentum correlates to a somewhat expected jolt in global geopolitical tensions that would affect energy supply, and hence prices... especially over the Easter weekend, or just after.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
1
USO: Island Hopping 🏝 Summer is approaching slowly but surely, and some might start to arrange their next holiday. Meanwhile, USO is already heading south and has a bit of island hopping planned. The first stop should be in the green zone between $68.62 and $66.43, where USO should finish wave 3 in green – and maybe drink a cocktail or two. Then, it should draw some breath in a short countermovement to complete wave 4 in green. Afterwards, the next green island between $62.86 and $60.67 is waiting, where USO should conclude wave 5 in green, wave c in orange and wave in magenta. Following another countermovement in wave in magenta, USO should finally reach the warm beach strip between $60.18 and $43.48 to finish wave in magenta and wave (2) in yellow and to catch some rays.
AMEX:USOShort
by MarketIntel
Oil - A Quick break before heading northWeekly Chart: Since ATH of $ 145 a barrel from 2008, we can draw a solid Down Trendline which penetrated for the first time on September 2021 (13 years). Note the 4 aesthetic points of resistance, whom adding more power to this significant trendline. This break of the trendline, by itself, tells us that something is changed - or at least, the trend might be reversed upward. Moreover, Fundamentally wise, we can't forget the huge increase in money supply (50%) which took part in the lase 2 years - This factor by itself serves a quite confident argument why inflation will still be present in the near future, and what are the implications of such act on commodities prices. What I mean is that the platform for high prices is set and done, and now what the economy needs is the reasons for new price rallies in practice - and trust me, there are going to be various of those (Covid, Wars, Supply chain problems, etc). The last Intermediate Rally: And indeed, we are not surprised to see the last upward burst (whatever the reason might be.., in this case - the russia-ukraine war) as a positive sign of continuation. The last Minor rally from 91 to 130, was a good bargain for those who positioned themselves before the war. The last Minor rally: But the Long party is far from over, and The Oil Train is about to give new opportunity for those who want to travel north. Daily Chart: Zooming into the Daily Interval, the tactical picture becomes much clearer: 1. Successive price movement throughout Major Resistance levels: 84.48, 91.41 - Clear sign of strong Buyers. 2. Penetration of the ascending Blue Line (tops) - which serves as a preparation signal for long trade. 3. Fibonacci level of 40% which sets harmonically with the ascending Blue Line - a decent place to take a Long Position when the right signal arrives. Tactical Keys: What we want to see is some sort of Reversal Candle which takes place on the Ascending Blue Line as a form of Support (Between 90-100). When and if such a signal arrives, a proper Stop Loss should be placed 5% below the Low of the new higher expected Bottom. The first target is 145 - ATH. Reversal: If somehow the Russian-Ukraine negotiations are progressed for the good, and somehow the Russia commodities market back to the game (Very low probability) - we might suffer a huge decrease in prices for the near term, or at least, a stagnation. In such case we want to wait for the price to draw us a clear tactical picture again, and wait for a qualitive trade opportunity.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ido_Havazelet