Energy stocks & commodities basing for coming reversal?Using XLE to represent the sector, it appears to be forming a "W" pattern, which could morph into an IH&S reversal pattern, but it still needs a little more time. Green zone is general support, and probable good intermediate term buying opportunity, maybe lasting into the end of the year. Pink boxes are gaps I would expect to be filled before reversal manifests.
USO
CRUDE Bounce and rehash IILast week's assessment was way off, admittedly. No follow through and just a turn and dive. It went further down to 92, and bounced strongly to end the day, and the week with a candlestick and long lower tail.
Expecting bullish week ahead... later in the week.
104 resistance, then 108 next resistance.
CRUDE Bounced off & rehash...As previously expected, Crude bounced off 95 (95.10 to be exact) and it bounced off with gusto, to reclaim 100 support. The bounce was a fast intraday check-in at 95, and the following day clocked a bullish engulfing of sorts. This was then followed by another bullish day to end the week with a long lower tail, indicative that between 95 to 100, likes a lot of demand.
The daily technical indicators are starting to crossover.
This recovery bounce is also awesome as it broke down and out of the triangle and then returned back in. For technical analysts, we do know that when this happens, there is a higher probability that there will be an exit on the other side... ie. a breakout is imminent.
Note that the triangle was updated by readjustment from previously.
In the weekly chart, while the technical indicators are still trudging lower, the candlestick shows a temporary spike out of the triangle only to make it back in. This is a bullish indication IMHO.
Taken together, expect the bullish run to meet some resistance about 112-114 in the following days of the incoming week. There needs to be a higher low, that bounces off the triangle support... and then we just might get a bull run breakout in early August 2022.
Watch this one!
ps. Target breakout (dotted green arrow) and upside target of 165 updated. Pennant pattern (fibonacci) projection also added (dashed green arrow)
USO Strong buy. Long call 200 optionsIf I were still trading, which I am not. I would invest in long 200 call options on USO. I am considering opening an options account and investing in long call options with a strike of 200. I would use the price of the long call as my maximum lose tolerance level. Meaning, If my max risk per trade was $150, I would buy (long) a 200 strike price that would only cost me $150; if I am wrong, I lose my max risk tolerance of $150. If I am right, I get exponential profit potential.
Stop putting all of your money into buying and holding. Select entry points, max risk tolerance and strategic entry intervals. Long USO seems great right now. If I am wrong, which can and will happen, the max risk will be automatically handled in a long option position. Learn option trading and stop giving greedy assholes your money.
Check out the Cash in/Cash out Report a free open source indicator on Tradingview.com. Here is the indicator If you have question on how to use and setup the indicator, please let me know. If the indicator gets 1,000 likes I will turn it into a free iOS and Android app. Let me know if it saves or makes you money!!
Crude Oil - CL Weekly WedgeThis grows increasingly curious.
Weekly Negative Divergences continue to expand
as Price (Porpper for ESG/Green Ag.) continues to
hold the Range.
___________________________________________
The Stickup for Sellers always begins Pre-NYMEX
simulated Pit for the AM Session, only to dump back
between the Sim PM Session.
Easy "A" Trade.
Get some.
Updated monthly for USO using the Cash In/Cash out ReportThis is the monthly USO chart with the Cash in/Cash out Report applied. The Cash in/Cash out report is a free and open source indicator here on TradingView. However, since Tradingview won't allow me to give a direct link to a free product on their own site, you will need to understand how to add an indicator to your chart. Please post comments if you want help installing the free open source indicator to your charts. The Cash in/Cash our Report is set to three. We are seeing three months of rolling cash into and out of the market. The green bubble forming is the rolling sum of the period set by the user, three months in this case. The individual bars are the months. USO looks like a strong buy right now. However, I am much better at identifying short positions. What do you think, are you long or short USO?
If the Cash in/Cash out report gets 1000 likes, it will become a free Android and iOS app. If you make or save money using the Cash in/Cash out report, give it a like!
USO: Rubber BallLike a rubber ball, USO has bounced off the green zone between $77.92 and $79.69 twice and finished wave 5 in green. We now expect it to jump a bit higher still to finish wave ii in orange before dropping down until the support line at $67.68. There, it should rebound to complete wave iv in orange and resume the overarching downward movement afterwards, which should lead into the turquoise zone between $60.18 and $43.48. There is a 30% chance, though, that USO could jump above the resistance at $87.83, thus continuing the ascent instead.
Crude Oil - CL (Negative Divergences Traded)We could see a pullback was arriving off the 4H NegDivs.
It arrived but has more work to do.
Commods were taken out to the commode and frushed
of FUF.
Pick one, they were all Skippy Red.
NQ, beaten down, Gold looking sketchy at best, although it
is attempting a consolidation - it should fail biggly - but will
remain tied to the FED's push-pull non-sense.
In the real world, arrangements are in solid decay.
Crude Oil - CL Daily WedgeStructurally, Oil looks to be moving higher in time.
We see Early July as the pivot to higher after a potential
dip in to lows to chase away the Retail Herd.
China imported a record volume of Russian crude in May,
with arrivals surging by 55 percent to nearly 2 million BPD.
This has made Russia the top oil supplier to the world's
leading crude importer—putting it ahead of Saudi Arabia
for the first time in a year and a half. A record volume
of cheap Russian oil, which sells at steep discounts to
crude from other countries, made its way to Chinese refiners
last month, according to figures from China's Administration
of Customs.
Off NYMEX Pricing discounts are quite common and have been
for some time.
Our Riggers appear bound and determined to spike Oil as high
as possible to suit their needs for the Greener Agendas and
pastures of the promised BBB.
Build back from the rubble... isn't going to work now other than
facilitate a move to Robo Transpo.
Crude in retracementCrude oil prices are in clear retracement this week, in the midst of broad market down trending.
Previous week's assessment was that Crude stalled, and the week passed saw Crude reach near target, almost 124, before stalling and retracing. For interest, white arrows show entry and exit points that were taken. Just days after closing the trade, Crude turned down for a retracement, and started with a weekly down candle that wiped out 5 weeks of gains. The daily chart shows that particularly after FOMC announcement of the 75 basis point increment, Crude took a definitive step back, and as the news sunk in, accentuated the slide downwards. Crude is in retracement mode, that appears to target 95 bounce support at the moment. The trajectory is broken, but the target for USD155-160 for 2022 is still in the making; IF Crude prices falls and maintains below 82, then it nullifies the USD155 projection.
Weekly and Daily technical indicators are bearish for now.
Look for 100 and 95 as supports over the next week.
Crude pausesThe Crude oil futures weekly chart started the week with a gap up, but ended the week with a doji candlestick, indicating a stall. Weekly indicators are divergent currently, with the RPM clearly pointing out the stalling, but the MACD crossed over to be bullish again.
The daily chart shows of a mid-week extension to near the 125 target, missing slightly, and then stalling and retracing at the end of the week. The rate of daily increase is steady, and not sudden spikes, which is good for the trend build up. Meaning, it would probably last longer uptrend. But for now, it appears to be stalling, and the daily technicals are also showing the signs of a stall.
Expectations for the coming two to three weeks would be retracements and consolidating for a coil, before the next launch, pending no sudden geopolitical events to trigger price spikes.
Crude Oil much longer term perspectiveThe monthly Crude Oil chart shows some seriously nasty ranges. From early 2000s, we have had monthly close check-ins from 20-140; and it does appear that the current dash for the upper end of the range is stronger in momentum (acceleration as seen by the slope and the size of the candlesticks). Taking history into account, it should slow down once crude is about 140, but I suspect the momentum should push it beyond, and as far as 155 in an overshoot.
IF we are lucky, ensuing years might see it come back down to 42-45 support area. Unless it maintains above 140, then there would be a massive range breakout. Projections from there would give crude oil another 100 more... yes, 240.
But for the nearer term, When crude makes a high above 140 by the end of 2022, things should start getting shaky... watch for it!
Phwfffftttttt....
CL - Crude OilRevisiting Prior High @ 148.20, breaking it and moving to 175 - 185...
OPEC doesn't dig the Joey B.
MBS - Media Backed Shitstorm.
BIDEN - Begging in Doom Energy Nightmare
Brough to you by the WEF - Werewolves Engineering Failure.
Silver Bullets?
Nah, $7 / $8 / $9 / $10 Gasoline the goal.
To add insult to injury, Biden will attempt the Miles Driven Tax.
Crude Oil UP ah!For the past month or so, been talking about higher Crude prices in the making. Here we are closer to that...
The Weekly chart closed at a monthly high, and with such gusto that it is the most bullish looking candle in the past 6 weeks! This came after many indications and warnings from weekly candlestick patterns and daily technicals as outlined previously in the last couple of weeks.
So, now the weekly technical indicators are showing a bullish turn.
The daily chart have a late week Crude Oil price spike, that is meeting a gap resistance, and the coming week should break through... this is supported by the RPM and MACD technicals.
125 then 155... and this is an off-cycle surge, so am expecting a quick surge really.
USO: Springy 👟👟USO seems to have put on its extra springy sneakers as it has jumped up into the green zone between $83.54 and $87.83 quite briskly after pressing against it for some time. Now, it should finish wave B in green in this region and subsequently turn around to move downwards. On its way, USO should then drop back below $82.48 and also fall below the support lines at $67.68 and $62.92 to reach the yellow zone between $60.18 and $43.48, where wave (2) in yellow should end.