$USO Dips as Oil Coils Up into OPECUSO is pulling back, with key confluence support potentially in play in the $39 area as the oil market braces for a major OPEC+ decision later this week.
USO
🛢Crude Oil topping with H&S pattern : CL1! - the end of the runHi guys, nice looking top on NYMEX:CL1!
Crude Oil burnt out Seldom post about Crude Oil but this is too obvious to miss and a very good learning point...
You see, Crude (and Energy) has recently been on fire (almost literally) with the rise of Crude oil due to many factors in recent months. The thing is, warning signs appear to tell of a retracement pullback, or even end of bull run.
The Weekly chart kindly heads up with long upper tails above 61.50. The RPM clearly warns of a pull back too. Net interest from Non-Commercials are not increasing as it was in early Nov, and the Top 8 Traders appear to be going more Net short.
Perhaps the daily chart (right panel) shows it clearer... with a marubozu-doji-reversed marubozu top pattern, and technicals to boot where RPM has crossed down, and MACD cross down after a bearish divergence flatline.
Something is clearly about to change... the party is almost done.
A look at WTI Crude Oil on the daily, last resistance level!Good morning, as you can see from the chart we are coming into the last reistance level for WTI Crude oil at 63.3-63.4 range. From there a clean break above and we open up the 66-76 level for oil. Watch in conjunction both USO and UCO as indicators of the strength of the move.
Oil fueling the way to summerWith Oil (gas prices) on the rise and the recent winter storms in Texas slowing production, a long with announcements that demand for oil is increasing; USO turned green on on the last hour of trading. Entered a 41/40 PCS for 0.23 3 DTE below the daily low. AMEX:USO
Holding between $38 and $45We are comfortable holding long term USO between $38 and $45 based on current global environment and trading structure. There is a long term trend line that sweeps through at $38 that heads to $39 slowly, very slowly which is easier to take advantage of. Still targeting $45 on the long term that is a safe place to take a position off this trade but continue the uptrend
USO - very bullish on oilAnyone with a brain knows where we are heading.. Take a lesson from Texas. Long here for USO and Oil and gas in general. Especially with a Biden admin. Opposites attract...
Good luck!
NOW is now!!Commodity trade by another means!
Just work in a long position with fundamentals.
p.s. Check-out the closing price line chart for line placement -
India & Japan very bullish frm late 2020 -> Oil & Resources soarIndia (INDA) & Japan (EWJ) equities very bullish from late 2020 - helping Oil (USO) and Resources (DBC) to also soar.
𝗢&𝗚 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $XOP Weekly. Moving Averages and VolumeMoving averages and volume in and of themselves can tell an interesting story. Is a Wave 3 under way in a new bull?
$DRIP $GUSH $XLE $CL_F $USO $NG_F $UNG $BOIL #Trading #ElliottWave #CrudeOil #OOTT 🛢️
USO looking for $45With a break of the trend line and confirmation of that break today (Friday Feb 5) we will look for the next level at $45 a share. With pricing in oil going higher and more demand appearing in the market
Dead wrong on Oil, but what now?Obviously my previous predictions on Oil were wrong, however, it is hard to forecast a vicious virus from the far East. Now, the doomsdayers are back, touting their long bond positions with gold, saying "I told you so." Those positions have worked, and oil has tanked. To be clear, I don't dislike bonds or gold here, but Oil is ripe for a rebound. We are deeply oversold, indeed, I believe this sell-off is far overdone. From a pure technical perspective, the RSI is now turning, and MACD looks to be bottoming out. We should retest the ~60 level again, as this was the previous range bound channel crude was trading in. If 50 is broken, this thesis is invalidated and I am dead wrong. We will see.
USO Touching a trend line Breakthrough or PullbackWe are now touching a long term (march 2020) trend line that gives us an upside to this trade. As oil continues to climb above 55 we see this staying in support.
But be careful of a pullback to 33 to retest to the 50 MA
Nice setup to short Crude oil falling channel 🛢️📉NYMEX:CL1! is trading now in long-term supply area ( resistance). After estabilished triple top price pattern we could see trading NYMEX:CL1! in falling channel.On hourly timeframe its clear downtrend and price forming hanging man pattern.
After breakdown diagonal trendline price is testing it, its perfect setup to short entry.
here is data for my trade:
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 52.62
Stop Loss: 52.92
Profit target: 51.54
Time stop: MOC ( Market on Close)
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Upward channel on SCO: Short Crude Oil at TopHi mates, i posting another of my todays trades. Its based od triple top on in my another idea posted few days ago. Its in realated.
here is data for my swingtrade:
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 9.98
Stop Loss: 9,82
Profit target: 10,62
Time stop: 3 days
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If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow.
Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
Selling Triple top in supply zone: CL ShortHi guys i sharing one of my today swing trades. Crude is trading now in longterm supply zone in extended uptrend and formed triple top pattern.
Because US Dollar lifting up i will make more pressure to oil. I trading this by ETF: AMEX:SCO
USOil (WTI)Due to the fall of the May contract into negative territory, oil can hardly be counted superordinate, as this is not provided in the EWT. Therefore, I have here only the last movement counters. Here it is not yet quite clear whether the final yellow (z) only the red w (here Alt. w) was completed or whether it was already completed. The 0.618 minimum target was reached in any case, so that a further rise would not be mandatory.
WTI - Short IdeaIdea is laid out here:
-broke trendline
-retested
-unconfirmed double top
-divergence showing in heatmap
2:1RR
1% risk
Oil Playbook ( 2021 )Prices for Crude Oil are down -20% from last year which means the bearish outlook is priced in. The bearish outlook is that the -16% drop in consumption outweighs the -7% drop in production plus the 4% increase in inventory stockpiles. Bulls want to know if demand has bottomed or not and since consumption tends to be highest in Jan-Feb, it might have further to fall since travel is still lagging. However, exports have recovered and circling back, the -20% discount in crude prices indicate the market is fundamentally balanced given the uncertainty.
Production
2019 Average: 12,197
2020 Average: 11,318
%Change: -7.76%
Stockpiles
2019 Nov: 1,918
2020 Nov: 2,003
%Change: +4.24%
Consumption
2019 Average: 1,070
2020 Average: 916
%Change: -16.81%
Exports
2019 Average: 8,471
2020 Average: 8,407
%Change: -0.76%
Trading Strategy
Swings in the dollar index are primarily moving prices so this will create the trading opportunities in the near term. Get ready.
There is a momentum divergence on the DXY daily chart and the RSI has some room to run.
Crude prices have reached a resistance level.
If the Dollar index does start to rally then crude prices are going to waterfall. Best to wait for a decisive candle closing below the 10 day EMA before making a short trade.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long oil/gas producer equities
KMI, LUKOY, EQT
Crude oil under pressure - 📉 Trading bearish flag on CL1!🛢️If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow.
Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
Hi fellows, just one of my today daytrades:
Nice entry point on bearish flag
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 48.07
Stop Loss: 48.22
Profit target: 47.60
Time stop: Exit at market close
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Crude oil drop by 4% soon! If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow.
Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
Hi fellows, just one of my today swingrades:
Crude oil forming head and shoulders pattern inside supply zone. Drop is very likely very near.
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 48.18
Stop Loss: 48.67
Profit target: 46.41
Time stop: 5 days
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CL: USO: Crude Oil Awaiting OPEC Decision to Boost ProductionCrude Oil chart is consolidating awaiting OPEC's decision to boost production by 500,000 B/d in February, with a total of 2 Billion B/d increase by April of 2021.
Prices may dip to $45 level. Economic recovery from COVID-19 is in the cards with expectations of higher demand coming in the spring and into H2 of 2021.
Currently, Crude Oil prices are holding grounds, pressured by the OPEC production increases news, but supported by expectations of growing demand.
Based on the OPEC agenda and Russia's position seeking price stability, 2021 oil prices are expected to trade within the range of $45-$55.
Lower prices, down to $45 -42 level may be seen in the near term, while demand has not recovered yet, but production increases are already agreed upon.
Technical analysis: 4 Hr RSI chart shows mid-range consolidation, which may get resolved by testing the bottom before going back up.
Multi-frame MACD chart analyses show consolidation at the top of the range on a Daily chart, with mid-range consolidation on a 4 Hr chart.
The most significant Fibonacci level from the most recent run up appears to be 50% at $45.50, which is also 200 EMA. This area is expected to
get tested first, should OPEC approve its production increases on January 4th. Lower levels of $42 and $39 are also possible targets, depending on the
EIA inventory reports in the coming weeks. We still do not have full demand recovery, while production may start increasing ahead of time.
Looking for a decent, if minor correction on USO > 44-ishLooking to purchase Oil/energy equities, looks like USO has a slight negative bias and might break down from ascending wedge. Looking to purchase more oil/energy on a dip. I can see 43-44 on a correction. 100 EMA near 44 should cap losses, unless we have a news catalyst.
Exxon and other energy names have moved up hard over the last few weeks, might be time for a correction. This would be to add to existing positions or to add new names. Also noticing some bearish divergence on the RSI in the 4-hr chart. Looking to pick up a few shares of FENY to diversify. Main vehicle is XOM, FENY is not ideal for diversification, but it provides some. Charts and indicators look okay, XOM appears to be at distribution and therefore a dip is underway as I write. Ideal price for FENY would be 9.90ish, for XOM, I would say anything below 40. Market will do what it wants, so I might just put in a trailing buy order with a half-decent delta and see if I can get a better price, but not going to try to get too "cute" about getting a sale price.
