Get started

USO

THE WEEK AHEAD: ROKU, WYNN, SQ EARNINGS; XOP, USO, GDXJ, EWZEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: ... Screened for options liquidity and 30-day implied greater than 50% and ranked by "bang for your buck": ROKU (38/31/16.4%),* announcing Thursday after market close. WYNN (27/76/14.7%), announcing Wednesday (no time specified). SQ (43/74/14.3%), announcing Thursday after market close. PYPL (56/60/11.6%), announcing Monday after market close. GM (20/59/11.4%), announcing Thursday after market close. QCOM (45/54/10.9%), announcing Wednesday after market close. BABA (65/55/10.5%), announcing Thursday after market close. Pictured here are two 2 x expected move setups in ROKU, one in November (19 days 'til expiry), and one in December (47 days 'til expiry). The November setup was paying 8.55 at the mid price as of Friday close, with delta/theta of -.89/51.22; the December: 10.13 at the mid price as of Friday close, with delta/theta of -.95/27.88. I could see doing either, with the primary benefit of the shorter duration being that the volatility contraction tends to be more rapid, and with the primary benefit of the longer duration one being that you've got a little bit more room to be wrong. If you're of a more defined risk bent, look for an iron condor setup paying at least one-third the width of the wings in credit, such as the November 20th 160/165/265/270, paying 1.63. Look to put this on in Thursday's session prior to market close, adjusting strikes as necessary to accommodate movement between now and then. With the exception of GM, the remainder of the underlyings can be short strangled or iron condored, but would go short straddle or iron fly in GM due it's size (34.53 as of Friday close). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: XOP (23/69/18.7%) USO (14/71/17.5%) GDXJ (22/56/15.7%) EWZ (29/56/15.5%) XLE (38/57/14.9%) GDX (23/46/13.3%) SLV (28/48/13.0%) XBI (36/44/12.1%) EWW (35/49/11.6%) IWM (42/42/10.8%) SMH (28/42/10.9%) QQQ (43/40/10.8%) BROAD MARKET: IWM (42/42/10.8%) QQQ (43/40/10.8%) SPY (38/38/9.6%) EFA (33/30/8.4%) IRA DIVIDEND-EARNERS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: EWZ (29/56/15.5%) XLE (38/57/14.9%) KRE (32/50/14.1%) SLV (38/48/13.0%)** XBI (37/44/12.1%) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price the November at-the-money short straddle is paying. ** -- SLV does not pay a dividend.
NASDAQ:ROKU
by NaughtyPines
2
Green New Oil DealOil prices should offer some nice opportunities to create some green days in the near future. Calling the bottom is difficult however, it should be a fairly safe trade once it closes above the macro fib level, 50/200 Day EMA, and this down trend line. Clearing these levels could mean that Bill Gates will have a vaccine for us soon or the Dollar Index is falling into the abyss. The Macro Fibs. Prices continue to coil up around these levels and act as check points in the trend. The DXY. On the macro level it appears it's only a matter of time before the Dollar breaks below it's first fib extension target. Should this happen, you do not want to be short oil. A Closer Look. The OBV is showing that selling pressure taking control and now that prices broke out of the uptrend and failed to retest, it looks like traders might look to test this pink trend line once again and could offer another buying opportunity. My last post, linked below, we can see that this pink trend line offered a perfect buying opportunity. If it get's there again I'll look for a bounce to take advantage of.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ryan-snk
Crude does not look sustainable...Yes, still bullish up trending, but honestly, look at the technicals and it’s like crazy... Cannot keep this weak rally up for too much longer. MACD is so bearishly divergent and recent rally is weak Th ebottom panel is the net non-commercial interest and it has been steadily waning as price edge higher. I thought it was going to give way earlier but everything is extending into September. Now I still expect Crude to roll over in September...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil - Buying the DipsOil prices are coiling up for a move which will eventually head towards to the mid $60s for the following reasons: - Bankruptcies - DXY destruction - Demand bottoming - Chaos in the Middle East at some point Pit stops along the way are marked by the fib extension from the first impulsive move - 0.5 and 0.618 being the most significant. The simplest strategy is to assume the fib levels are to at first sell the resistance levels and then buy when it flips to support. Right now it looks like the 0.236 level is now support. Below that you have a possible floor at the macro fib level around $40 - any dips here will likely be bought up quick. Still long QM @ $42.85 Total Oil P/L: $1,930 All trades linked below.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ryan-snk
Looks like CRUDE OIL is the first to give way...In a market where everything goes up, and ignoring the fact that we are no better than when the year started... something was gonna give. It is Crude Oil that appears to cave in first... The daily Crude Oil futures CL1! clearly shows a waning momentum to push oil prices just about 42. And this waning momentum was under a technical bearish divergence of the MACD, and price action within a rising wedge. Any technical chartist would know the probability of how this eventually pans out... So here you go, Crude appear to be the first mover, and soon, when it fails to bounce off the wedge support, breaks down, and drops below 40... we all would have an “ah ha!” moment. Well, you got a heads up here... be warned, it almost time. Interesting outcome... I was watching a couple of charts, wondering which would give the first signal, and how the cascade would start. Stay safe and have a good weekend ahead!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Oil struggling to find momentumFor most of my investing life, I have been a part of the upwards bull run spanning nearly a decade. Growth stocks outperformed cyclical and value, interest rates were kept low, and oil was at favorable prices. However, this year I experienced two unprecedented events: The Pandemic and negative oil prices. Both the pandemic and negative oil prices come hand in hand Pandemic forced everyone in their houses, forcing a build up in oil inventories. So much so, that storage was filled to the brim, and oil producers were paying buyers (what a weird statement) to take their oil – hence, negative prices. Since that historic day, oil prices have doubled, and Brent Crude has stabilized around the $40 – $45 range. However, it struggles to find momentum getting back to the glory days of $60 and $70 a barrel for oil. If New Zealand is to be followed, higher prices for oil may be unlikely We are all optimists at heart – no matter our opinion, we want things to be better than expected. Better than expected results for earnings means we get a boost in a stock price. Better than expected, Coronavirus vaccine results mean we can return to a life of normal quicker. However, in the words of Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, “Things will get worse before it gets better.” Jacinda’s statement was on the back of New Zealand recording more Community transmitted cases after 102 days of no community transmitted cases. Two things can be deduced from this: No matter how successful you are at flattening the curve, just like New Zealand has, community transmission is inevitable If we argue that New Zealand has relatively been the most successful in trying to get rid of the virus through their harsh lockdown measures and there still is community transmission – how is the rest of the world going to cope? Oil isn’t just about supply This is important because no matter how much suppliers restrict the supply of oil, there are two sides to the picture – the other side being demand. If New Zealand, after fully flattening the curve for 102 days, goes into another lockdown, can we assume that the rest of the world will follow a similar trajectory? Not to mention that countries like the United States and places like Victoria, Australia, have not been able to achieve what New Zealand has. Countries like Japan and Australia were initially praised for their low Coronavirus cases. However, they both have seen spikes due to community transmission. That is a long-winded argument to back up the idea that Oil demand (and therefore oil prices) are inversely correlated to potential second lockdowns. And that may be the reason as to why we do not see oil push past $50 a barrel anytime soon. Oil producers are hoping that that the Coronavirus doesn’t force a second lockdown The International Energy Association (IEA) reported they predict oil demand would average around 91.9 million barrels a day (BPD) in 2020. This is 8.1 Million barrels a day lower than the average of 100m BPD last year. Quick maths Average oil prices were around $64 a barrel in 2019 Currently, Brent is sitting at around $45 a barrel in 2020 Difference is $19 a barrel $18 x 8.1 = $15.4 Billion of average potential oil revenues a day lost due to the Pandemic That $15.4 Billion is assuming that oil prices stay at $45 and demand staying at an average of 91 Billion barrels a day this year. If a second lockdown occurs, we will see oil demand drop and the price of oil drop, causing a double blow to producers. IEA noted that “Recent mobility data suggests the recovery has plateaued in many regions” and that the global oil supply was expected to be roughly steady in August. Assuming that demand is constant in August, we should see Brent Crude oil stay around the $45 mark. However, a second lockdown across the world as OPEC slowly increases its supply will lower oil prices.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Crude Oil - Black GoldCommodities are rallying today as the Dollar index loses value and right on cue, oil has hit my target at $43 (the 50 week EMA) and could pullback soon. I've closed my positions for a $1,237.50 gain (entry/exit linked below) and am looking to buy dips moving forward. I believe oil is heading higher by the end of the year and the fib extensions should help map out buy/sell points and hint on the strength of the moves. That pink trend line also will likely come into play at some point. Goodluck.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ryan-snk
Crude Oil - Launch PadCrude Oil sold off today at first however, traders decisively bid the price back up above the 200 day EMA. Note: The light blue 50 EMA on this 4hr chart is equivalent to the 200 day EMA This bullish price action tells me that the 200 day EMA is now the launch pad for traders to take this to the next level up. Most likely that would be the 50 week EMA around $43.25 - Depending on the reaction to this level, I'll sell or hold. Could be a short squeeze coming. Further, the MACD is crossing right at the zero line which indicates bullish momentum.
NYMEX_MINI:QM1!Long
by ryan-snk
Which Way Does Oil Want To Breakout, Down or Up?Since collapse we have had a good recovery with a very strong impulse and the 3 day continues to shoot green. Now we are zoomed in on 12 hour timeframe. After the strong impulse, price action has started to range into something similar to an ascending wedge creating a test at the recent top with a tight price consolidation. These are the perfect kinds of moves you want to play. What we will look for next is to play a breakout either way out of the current compression point. Big volume should attack on the breakout. $30 high / $29 low. Currently in mid range. Let it lead into a transition on the daily candle to shift the indicators. Good luck.
AMEX:USO
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
8
Schlumberger Layoff 20,000If the price does not break past previous highs, it will go down.This is bear flag pattern forming, now add in the fundamentals of a twenty thousand scheduled lay off and you get a new price discovery. I would set my buy orders around five below $5.00 This is not trading advice, and i am not legally able to give anyone financial advice as I am not licensed. I will never tell you what to do with your money, or how to trade. this is only my opinions, and my trade ideas for my personal growth.
NYSE:SLB
by MrMoneyMatrix