WTI - Short IdeaI see downside and weakness here. Price has tried to break but has been beaten back.
I am short.
2:1 RR - 1% risked.
Notice how price has settled at a level of 61.8% Fib.. significant.
USO
Crude does not look sustainable...Yes, still bullish up trending, but honestly, look at the technicals and it’s like crazy...
Cannot keep this weak rally up for too much longer.
MACD is so bearishly divergent and recent rally is weak
Th ebottom panel is the net non-commercial interest and it has been steadily waning as price edge higher.
I thought it was going to give way earlier but everything is extending into September.
Now I still expect Crude to roll over in September...
Crude Oil - Buying the DipsOil prices are coiling up for a move which will eventually head towards to the mid $60s for the following reasons:
- Bankruptcies
- DXY destruction
- Demand bottoming
- Chaos in the Middle East at some point
Pit stops along the way are marked by the fib extension from the first impulsive move - 0.5 and 0.618 being the most significant.
The simplest strategy is to assume the fib levels are to at first sell the resistance levels and then buy when it flips to support.
Right now it looks like the 0.236 level is now support. Below that you have a possible floor at the macro fib level around $40 - any dips here will likely be bought up quick.
Still long QM @ $42.85
Total Oil P/L: $1,930
All trades linked below.
Looks like CRUDE OIL is the first to give way...In a market where everything goes up, and ignoring the fact that we are no better than when the year started... something was gonna give.
It is Crude Oil that appears to cave in first...
The daily Crude Oil futures CL1! clearly shows a waning momentum to push oil prices just about 42. And this waning momentum was under a technical bearish divergence of the MACD, and price action within a rising wedge.
Any technical chartist would know the probability of how this eventually pans out...
So here you go, Crude appear to be the first mover, and soon, when it fails to bounce off the wedge support, breaks down, and drops below 40... we all would have an “ah ha!” moment.
Well, you got a heads up here... be warned, it almost time.
Interesting outcome... I was watching a couple of charts, wondering which would give the first signal, and how the cascade would start.
Stay safe and have a good weekend ahead!
Brent and crude: the story of one resistanceGap fill straight into major weekly resistance for both $CL and $BR. Good place for a significant retrace.
Oil struggling to find momentumFor most of my investing life, I have been a part of the upwards bull run spanning nearly a decade. Growth stocks outperformed cyclical and value, interest rates were kept low, and oil was at favorable prices. However, this year I experienced two unprecedented events: The Pandemic and negative oil prices.
Both the pandemic and negative oil prices come hand in hand
Pandemic forced everyone in their houses, forcing a build up in oil inventories. So much so, that storage was filled to the brim, and oil producers were paying buyers (what a weird statement) to take their oil – hence, negative prices.
Since that historic day, oil prices have doubled, and Brent Crude has stabilized around the $40 – $45 range. However, it struggles to find momentum getting back to the glory days of $60 and $70 a barrel for oil.
If New Zealand is to be followed, higher prices for oil may be unlikely
We are all optimists at heart – no matter our opinion, we want things to be better than expected. Better than expected results for earnings means we get a boost in a stock price. Better than expected, Coronavirus vaccine results mean we can return to a life of normal quicker. However, in the words of Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, “Things will get worse before it gets better.”
Jacinda’s statement was on the back of New Zealand recording more Community transmitted cases after 102 days of no community transmitted cases. Two things can be deduced from this:
No matter how successful you are at flattening the curve, just like New Zealand has, community transmission is inevitable
If we argue that New Zealand has relatively been the most successful in trying to get rid of the virus through their harsh lockdown measures and there still is community transmission – how is the rest of the world going to cope?
Oil isn’t just about supply
This is important because no matter how much suppliers restrict the supply of oil, there are two sides to the picture – the other side being demand. If New Zealand, after fully flattening the curve for 102 days, goes into another lockdown, can we assume that the rest of the world will follow a similar trajectory? Not to mention that countries like the United States and places like Victoria, Australia, have not been able to achieve what New Zealand has. Countries like Japan and Australia were initially praised for their low Coronavirus cases. However, they both have seen spikes due to community transmission.
That is a long-winded argument to back up the idea that Oil demand (and therefore oil prices) are inversely correlated to potential second lockdowns. And that may be the reason as to why we do not see oil push past $50 a barrel anytime soon.
Oil producers are hoping that that the Coronavirus doesn’t force a second lockdown
The International Energy Association (IEA) reported they predict oil demand would average around 91.9 million barrels a day (BPD) in 2020. This is 8.1 Million barrels a day lower than the average of 100m BPD last year. Quick maths
Average oil prices were around $64 a barrel in 2019
Currently, Brent is sitting at around $45 a barrel in 2020
Difference is $19 a barrel
$18 x 8.1 = $15.4 Billion of average potential oil revenues a day lost due to the Pandemic
That $15.4 Billion is assuming that oil prices stay at $45 and demand staying at an average of 91 Billion barrels a day this year. If a second lockdown occurs, we will see oil demand drop and the price of oil drop, causing a double blow to producers.
IEA noted that “Recent mobility data suggests the recovery has plateaued in many regions” and that the global oil supply was expected to be roughly steady in August. Assuming that demand is constant in August, we should see Brent Crude oil stay around the $45 mark. However, a second lockdown across the world as OPEC slowly increases its supply will lower oil prices.
Crude Oil - Black GoldCommodities are rallying today as the Dollar index loses value and right on cue, oil has hit my target at $43 (the 50 week EMA) and could pullback soon.
I've closed my positions for a $1,237.50 gain (entry/exit linked below) and am looking to buy dips moving forward.
I believe oil is heading higher by the end of the year and the fib extensions should help map out buy/sell points and hint on the strength of the moves. That pink trend line also will likely come into play at some point.
Goodluck.
Crude oil: A good short hereCrude oil is running out of steam to the upside. It has closed the gap from the last decline and presents a good RR short here.
$USOoil is back near it's 1987, 2000 and 2003 highs and being rejected by it's 2015 multilows and 2008 low. may just range for years now between 50 and 15 $XLE $XOP
Crude Oil - Launch PadCrude Oil sold off today at first however, traders decisively bid the price back up above the 200 day EMA.
Note: The light blue 50 EMA on this 4hr chart is equivalent to the 200 day EMA
This bullish price action tells me that the 200 day EMA is now the launch pad for traders to take this to the next level up. Most likely that would be the 50 week EMA around $43.25 - Depending on the reaction to this level, I'll sell or hold. Could be a short squeeze coming.
Further, the MACD is crossing right at the zero line which indicates bullish momentum.
USO - finally some movementBeen awhile since USO has done much. Think it has started toward bottom in wave C.
Which Way Does Oil Want To Breakout, Down or Up?Since collapse we have had a good recovery with a very strong impulse and the 3 day continues to shoot green.
Now we are zoomed in on 12 hour timeframe. After the strong impulse, price action has started to range into something similar to an ascending wedge creating a test at the recent top with a tight price consolidation.
These are the perfect kinds of moves you want to play. What we will look for next is to play a breakout either way out of the current compression point. Big volume should attack on the breakout.
$30 high / $29 low. Currently in mid range. Let it lead into a transition on the daily candle to shift the indicators.
Good luck.
Schlumberger Layoff 20,000If the price does not break past previous highs, it will go down.This is bear flag pattern forming, now add in the fundamentals of a twenty thousand scheduled lay off and you get a new price discovery. I would set my buy orders around five below $5.00
This is not trading advice, and i am not legally able to give anyone financial advice as I am not licensed. I will never tell you what to do with your money, or how to trade. this is only my opinions, and my trade ideas for my personal growth.
United States OilFUNDAMENTALS:
Ever since the reverse stock split back in April of this year, this chart has become problematic in future price discovery. I have no skin in this, but I want to take on the oil markets as a challenge to myself to focus in on the global markets, and how political shenanigans play a factor in the price of oil. Just keep in mind what drove the prices of oil down this year, and think about the coming presidential election. That will be your unknown variable to the fundamentals in the price.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
I have chosen the daily time frame for this chart since it has done the reverse stock split that has complicated the price ranges. I have found that the price is possibly forming an ASCENDING TRIANGLE or a PENNANT. This pattern I have outlined in white lines. There WILL be a breakout of this pattern in the coming days or weeks. A break below will happen based on the fundamentals of the global economic, and the fear virus.
A break above this pattern will allow the price push higher and retest the orange lines.
Remember, I am not your financial advisor, and I am not legally qualified to give advice or tell you what to do with your money. Do your own research.
Brent Crude Oil - Trends of Support & ResistanceHere I have laid out historical trend lines that prove previous support, and resistance prices. Using technical analysis to predict the future price of Brent Crude Oil is only one variable to the equation. I believe that the most important factor for future price discovery will be the global fundamentals. The United states of America is coming up on a presidential election. This is very important for future production.
I have mapped out the price levels I expect to see resistance, and support. The orange horizontal lines are the areas I would take profits. Brent Crude is currently testing resistance between the price of 45-47 dollar range. Day traders and swingers (Lol) may be setting up for shorts going into the weekend. Long term, based on previous trends I would expect a push back up to the upper 86.00 dollar region.
This is not financial advice, and I am legally able to tell you what to do with your money. these markets are extremely volatile during the election years, and the rise of the fear factor pandemic. Trade safe, and use stop losses, and do your own research into the fundamental factor that will impact this asset.
"Ju$t Follow The Money Matrix."
WTI - Support & ResistanceHere I have laid out historical trend lines that prove previous support, and resistance prices. Using technical analysis to predict the future price of WTI is only one variable to the equation. I believe that the most important factor for future price discovery will be the global fundamentals. The United states of America is coming up on a presidential election. This is very important for future production.
I have mapped out the price levels I expect to see resistance, and support. The orange horizontal lines are the areas I would take profits. WTI is currently testing resistance in the mid 40's now. A retest of the 33 dollar range would be healthy to create organic growth, and give the bulls to buy back in to push the price higher to the next target of 57 dollars. Long term, based on previous trends I would expect a push back up to the upper 80 dollar region.
This is not financial advice, and I am legally able to tell you what to do with your money. these markets are extremely volatile during the election years, and the rise of the fear factor pandemic. Trade safe, and use stop losses, and do your own research into the fundamental factor that will impact this asset.
"Ju$t Follow The Money Matrix."
