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USO

USO ETF Resumes Trading Oil Futures - 155% Price IncreaseFollowing temporary suspension of trading new oil futures contracts for all institutional and private customers by USO's broker RBC, USO has secured a second broker, RCG, to allow the trading of new oil futures contracts by USO , effective May 29, 2020. In addition to the buying and selling of new oil futures contracts under RCG, USO still maintains full rollover capabilities of preexisting oil futures contracts, prior to May 23, 2020, maintained, and brokered, under RBC . From the market low of $16.88 on April 28, 2020, USO has seen a 155% increase on price, as of June 2, 2020. With economic recovery, and an increased demand for oil , poised to dominate the summer season, outlooks for holders of USO ETF are promising.
AMEX:USO
by JeremyTrades
Welp. USO got permabanned from trading Oil.Extremely popular ETF among retail investors United States Oil Fund got banned from trading Oil. Less than 1 month after a 1 to 8 reverse split. The number of holders on Robinhood, a popular broker among retail investors, has been going up despite all the negative news. Actually it has been going up more the more negative news there have been. How to write about this without looking sarcastic or making it look like a parody? I assure you all I am writting is true. With Oil prices crashing the ETF saw about 2 months ago a massive influx of investors and hit their limit. They have responded (after losing alot of their investors money and getting limited by the CME & regulators) by spreading their positions over several months. On April 29th they did a, 8 to 1 reverse split to not get delisted. The price has kept going up since then, perhaps because of all the investors with less than 8 shares that bought back in. According to a Thursday SEC filing made by the ETF, RBC Capital Markets, their broker, has informed the fund running USO that they could no longer buy oil futures and not even hold oil positions. USO response has been to say they may hold larger amounts of cash & cash equivalents and treasuries (zero or even negative yielding US treasuries). RBC reason is speaking in layman terms to not end up like Lehman Brothers. Despite being down 75% YTD USO AUM have quadrupled (and would have done more than this had they not hit the limit). ycharts.com RobinTrack data shows that the number of accounts holding USO has soared by about 2000% since March. So... if they are at the limit, they money they lose can be replenished by new buyers and they can remain at the upper limit forever? (As long as new buyers join). They might have to redesign their offer, since they cannot hold oil anymore. I guess they're just going to hold "investors" money in cash & bonds while collecting fees. Let's see what the regulators say. People wanted to buy Oil but we all know they just want to buy something deep in the red and even if the ETF changes they are not going to sell because they enjoy holding losers. They might even be interested to buy more. Seriously. The keyword is "emotional" but better than this would be "irrational" and even better - I have to - is my own description "complete morons". Of course technical analysts do not need to read the news and knew all of this before it even happened thanks to their magical little oscillators and tools. Retail investors are unphased and ignoring this "FUD". I expect them to buy more, probably expecting an investment in their own money at a fee to magically go up. When I'm doing my research I'm angry and ranting half of the time but also I'm just laughing in front of my screen half of the time. I love my 'job'.
AMEX:USO
by MrRenev
31
THE WEEK AHEAD (PART II): HPQ, CRM, COST, GDXJ/GDX, USO/XOP, EWZEARNINGS: ... with June monthly at-the-money short straddle price as a function of stock price shown: HPQ (38/62), 14.3%: Announces Wednesday before market open. CRM (54/46), 8.7%: Announces Thursday before market open. COST (35/32), 6.5%: Announces Thursday before market open. Notes: Ordinarily, I screen potential earnings announcement volatility contraction plays by rank and for 30-day greater than 50%, but we've had a volatility pop in the last 52-weeks such that implied rank or percentile isn't necessarily as informative as it was. Where this happens, I look at whether the underlying is going to objectively pay or be worthwhile, using the at-the-money short straddle price relative to the stock price in a potential evaluation of that (i.e., the HPQ June at-the-money short straddle is paying 14.3% of the price of the stock). A good rule of thumb is that anything paying below 10% of the stock price is probably not worth it as a volatility contraction play in single name, so HPQ would probably be the only earnings play I'd consider putting on here, with the June 19th 17 short straddle paying 2.42 at the mid price and the skinny June 19th 15.5/19 paying 1.09, although the markets are wide here, so would look to recheck setup pricing running into Tuesday close if you're keen on putting that play on. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY AND ORDERED BY RANK WITH JULY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SHOWN: SLV (48/38), 10.8% EWW (44/42), 11.6% GDXJ (43/61), 17.7% TQQQ (41/87), 24.3% GDX (40/48), 14.5% XBI (38/41), 11.8% EWZ (36/55), 15.2% XLE (35/47), 13.2% SMH (31/28), 11.4% XOP (24/57), 17.1% USO (23/86), 21.8% ... AND ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SCREENED FOR >15%: TQQQ (41/87), 24.3% USO (23/86), 21.8% GDXJ (43/61), 17.7% XOP (24/57), 17.1% EWZ (36/55), 15.2% GDX (40/48), 14.5% Notes: Here, TQQQ looks to provide the best bang for your buck, but I generally shy from leveraged products unless I can't resist doing something in the direction of the way the fund is set up. (See, TQQQ Post Below). Secondarily, USO/XOP have some juice, as do GDXJ/GDX, with the hammered EWZ rounding out the top five. Pictured here is a GDXJ July 17th (53 Days 'Til Expiry) 40/56 short strangle paying 2.75 at the mid price with delta/theta metrics of -1.52/5.55. BROAD MARKET, ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: IWM (47/40), 10.9% QQQ (29/29), 8.3% EFA (29/26), 6.8% SPY (28/29), 7.8% Notes: Here, the juice is in small caps, with the IWM July 17th, 16 delta strike 115/151 short strangle paying 3.39 at the mid price and delta/theta of -.1/8.27. IRA DIVIDEND PAYERS ORDERED BY RANK: EWA (47/39), 36.8% above 52 week lows; IYR (44/36), 31.5% above 52 week lows. XLU (38/25), 30.3% above 52 week lows. EWZ (36/55), 25.1% above 52 week lows. HYG (31/17), 20.5% above 52 week lows. EFA (29/26), 24.6% above 52 week lows. SPY (28/28), 35.4% above 52 week lows. EMB (22/18), 24.6% above 52 week lows. TLT (20/18), 29.2% above 52 week lows. Notes: I'm sticking the "above 52 week lows" out there just to show how much of everything has bounced, so it wouldn't have taken a genius to wade into the market, sell some out-of-the-money short puts in high implied and made out in some fashion. (See IYR, EFA, HYG Short Put Ladder Posts, Below). Conversely, that bounce means that things weren't as cheap as they were at the lows, so it may be time to sit back and wait for another sell-off or high implied event to wade back in with acquisitional setups, with the general elections in November being the next possible opportunity. In the mean time, I'll continue to work the call side in the covered calls I've got on now.
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
TECHNICAL LONG OIL. TINY STOP. GOOD RISK REWARD.A good opportunity has presented itself for a long trade in oil. A mid term trade, from a nice level. First take gives us a roughly 2:1 risk reward and I will be closing half of my position there. Next take is at the first big resistance level. I will close my entire position there. The stop is very short, yet, pay attention, to that it is not ON the level, but slightly BELOW the level. Avoid simple mistakes. Wish you luck!
AMEX:USOLong
by ProSignalsFx
2
LONG UGA @ $8.50#Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures bottom close here at $.54 as gasoline crack spread (difference between spot price of crude oil & gasoline) looks to be bouncing from lows.. Hourly chart showing capitulation volume & bullish RSI divergence suggesting downtrend weakening $UGA $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 10:53AM CST twitter.com There it is.. #Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures likely long-term bottom here @ $.46 with massive capitulation volume & hammer candle rally back over $.50 or $UGA $8.80.. Expect gasoline futures upside rally to backtest 10dayEMA @ $.80 spot price or $14 $UGA stock price $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 1:27PM CST Playing this upside move with UGA October 16th $16 calls @ 1.00 twitter.com
AMEX:UGALong
by CashFlo_Trading
Litecoin Hinted at Bitcoin's Move Up, More to Come?Apologies for not posting yesterday. I was trapped with work and mentally drained from all the news coverage of our Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Honestly, it was a disappointment in terms of price action. For stock market bears, today there has been a lack of follow through to the down side. Yes, that should keep you up at night if you are short this market. The gold breakout was...meh. Oh and Bitcoin did what it does best and filled its ridiculous gap early this morning. Let's get into some charts. Today I'll focus on Litecoin, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, SPDR Gold Shares, and the United States Oil Fund. Litecoin Warned Us and it Delivered A few days ago I posted on how Litecoin was retesting support at 40 and may hint of a Bitcoin rally. I explained that it is informative to use other altcoin charts to gauge the future direction of Bitcoin. We reviewed Litecoin and it delivered. Bitcoin ripped from early week lows and has now filled the infamous 1200 point CME gap. Just ridiculous . However, the Litecoin price is lagging Bitcoin significantly (red flag). Below is the daily chart of Litecoin. As you can see, Litecoin is rallying off the lows but the lack of follow through should be concerning. In the coming week or two there is also the risk of a Head and Shoulders reversal top forming. Could this reversal pattern provide us with another hint for Bitcoin? Below is the daily chart of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Notice the lack of follow through for the bulls on the daily candle close. I view this as a sign of exhaustion which could lead to consolidation or a reversal. GBTC will be an important chart to watch in the coming weeks. For crypto in general, there are signs that are pointing to continued consolidation, with potential of further dips to as low as 6,000. In the meantime continue to BTFD and sell into rallies. Bias: Bearish . Follow through ASAP Maybe I am impatient, but gold needs to follow through asap! Below is the daily view of GLD. What we see here is potentially the next steps to a all-time high test . Momentum is beginning to build as GLD is breaking out from a month long symmetrical triangle. Don't short here, the trend has been bullish and the with the current state of the global economy there may not be a safer place to stack your cash. With that said, there are levels of support I would like GLD to hold. See below the 4-hour chart of GLD. A break below 161 support and there is cause for concern. In the interim my bias remains.... Bias: Bullish . Onto Black Gold I haven't talked about any oil stocks on this channel yet so why not begin with USO. Below is the 4-hour chart of USO. For the last 10 days USO has been in a sideways consolidation known as a rectangle . These types of formations often take form at the beginning of major trends. Last point on rectangle consolidations, is that they rarely have false breakouts outside of the rectangle. Whichever direction USO breaks will likely define the trend. Keep an eye on this chart as it could be a big winner heading into the summer. Short term, Bias: Bullish . Tomorrow is the weekly close. In the morning I'll be reviewing Zoom and possibly Tesla. I hope you have a great evening!
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by DailyClose
1
Still think USO is a great way to invest in Oil?An Interactive Broker trader with a $77,000 account thought he would outsmart every institution and every big Oil trader, the result? A $9 million loss. Well done. IB normally doesn't take beginners, you need 2 years experience to trade FX with them (haven't checked futures so I don't know what the rule is for those), and the min account size is 10,000. This day trader (go figure) thought he was smarter than every one, and he went all in, he bet the farm. This alone is stupid, but he went all in without doing his research! Probably a "technical analyst". Weird, I thought magical esoteric TA told you everything you need to know, that everything was built in the chart and info not in the chart was useless noise. Didn't his magical TA tools tell him it would go negative? Well actually if he looked at the ATR / implied volatility he would have seen.... Even I, that has negative balance protection and guaranteed stops, went on the CME site to check announcements. They don't exactly talk about negative prices nor clearly about limit up limit down, but here, with Oil massive volatility, they did confirm that yes indeed they were prepared for negative prices. Thomas Peterffy (the hungarian market billionaire that is not George Soros) said 5 days wasn't enough for IB to update their platform and that's obviously true. Now maybe they should have warned people with messages on the interface, e-mails, maybe set some hard limit to what their clients can do. Maybe they should have had code ready at all time in case this happens. Maybe they share the fault, maybe not. But anyway, being a customer friendly broker, they absorbed losses over 100 million. Meanwhile I did my research, I shorted June contract and made money, and I'm fighting with my shady broker to withdraw some of my gains... They have been condemned by the french regulators years ago for shady business practices go figure, but every retail broker has! And the vast majority of their clients are retail. I'm waiting and waiting and waiting... I have resisted insulting them or calling the regulator for now. The only other broker to give me a hard time was Kraken. They mention anti laundering laws and more, and I understand, but why be so unclear, and ask for documents 5 times rather than all at once, and why ask for the same documents several time, and why be so difficult, only when someone made money? Short Bitcoin on Kraken which was clearly very pro bull, short Oil on *** which had a massive number of retail short sellers (they were on the June contract thought), and then it's an issue. Never had a single problem buying Bitcoin and sending it to a wallet, never a problem when losing money, extreme ease to deposit and start paying commissions, without any warning "getting it out will be very hard". "It's quick instant easy" ye sure, no it's not. The fund running USO clearly said it was a tool for short term bets. It's not made for massive hoardes of dumb money to buy and hold. They have spread over several months to be more nimble, ye looks like its working great! I heard reverse splits were a good sign, that it was smart to invest in a stock after it made a reverse split. Once again, retail that never in their lives made money consistently, thought they knew better than every one else, and that they would get rich quick. Once again, I warned people with what little visibility I had. Once again I was right and retail is getting wiped out. Bagholders are going to argue, they are going to say "just wait", and any spike up will be their celebration and "told you so" "this is it". Same old story. They'll keep arguing, they'll keep bagholding, they'll keep losing. Dumb money at its finest: never understand when you lost. You can never tell them "told you so" because in their mind it's always just a matter of time. When it gets delisted they'll have no choice but to understand they lost, and still then they'll go full lawsuit and dream of getting their money back. How long for this? 5 years? 10 years? Apple Sapphire screen bagholders as I posted recently have gotten like 4% of their money back on average. An average smart (average of the ones in the top) investor or speculator in 10 years will be up 15% compounded, so +300% (turn the total into 400%), and dumb bagholders that wanted to get rich quick "15% a year looool that's pathetic" will be spending their time in courts and dreaming of getting 4% back (turn the total into 4%). Delusion at its finest. There is no free lunch... If Oil was priced at $0.01 there was a very good reason for it. Oil traders weren't just selling at this price because "emotions" "rsi very oversold". It's so risible that some complete noobs that don't understand anything they are doing thought they are just so much smarter than the market, and that whales were just "being emotional" and selling a barrel of Oil at $5, $3, etc just because they were "scaaaaared". Homer Simpson really thought "Aha! Whales are selling Oil at $1 a barrel but they are scared. I, Homer J Simpson, know something they don't! Oil is worth more. I am a visionary!" It's like when Homer went hunting for a Turkey, he just put a nice plate down with rice and other food in, then shouted "Come on Turkey come join your friends" and pointed the gun towards the plate with a big smile on his face, fully convinced a Turkey would jump in his plate. I thought the Simpsons were ridiculous and overly exagerated when I was a kid. How wrong I was. My broker lets me set an order to short USO. Oh my, I sure know what I'm going to do! 2 possibilities actually. The Difference Between Stupidity and Genius Is That Genius Has Its Limits.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by MrRenev
8
May 10 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: A simplified analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $2965 Low-Volume Area; Targets $2940, $3015; VWAP Feb ‘20 High, Mar ‘20 Low, and Dec ‘18 Low. Technical: Broad market indices, such as the Nasdaq (/NQ), have shown relative strength, trending higher and experiencing muted liquidations. The Russell (/RTY) took back the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) anchored from the Feb ‘20 high, which also corresponds to its 50% fibonacci retracement level. Above current prices is a low-volume area which developed when participants had solid downside directional conviction. The short term strategy is to fade (short resistance, long support). When you trade into an area of low-volume, then sentiment (directional conviction) has changed and movement is swift. In case of the S&P 500, acceptance above Friday’s late-day spike may point to the subsequent penetration of the low-volume area and swift movement to $3015, the other end of that area. Spending minimal time above Friday’s spike base and high would point to rotation back into the high volume area we are attempting to leave. These high-volume areas are sticky, since they develop when prices slow to satisfy two-sided, rotational trade. Last week I said that if the market reverses and overtakes the initiative activity that created the gap, then sentiment has changed. Well, we reversed. Despite the market moving higher on Tuesday, participants did not have enough conviction to follow through. We left behind a thick area of value and an intraday poor high before selling-off on the Fed Clarida doom and gloom news. Excess was established lower, during the overnight session. The type of selling that occured on Tuesday was not accompanied by new money, left value behind, and offered a good opportunity to sell puts or establish some low-risk long positions. On Wednesday, we sold off again, leaving mechanical looking highs. When the following day retraced that selling, the context was there for repair of Tuesday’s high. All this put together, the most important note to be made is Friday’s continuation higher on terrible economic news. If the fundamental context is crap and we go higher, I’m not going to be bearish. In case of upside, targets include $2940 and $3015. On a continuation lower, targets include $2860, $2820, and $2786, the convergence of significant references. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: CPI; Initial Claims; Retail Sales; Industrial Production; UoM Confidence; Inventories; Producer Prices; Import Prices; Earnings. Moody’s projects retail and apparel spec grade default rate to surge. bit.ly European automakers restart production. Demand pickup remains questionable. bit.ly Shell dividend cut good for credit, but highlights downturn severity. bit.ly ISM non-manufacturing index falls as prices rise on increased shipping costs. bit.ly Market priced in negative U.S. interest rates. reut.rs Second phase of reopening to see turnover and employment impact. reut.rs China is not complying with the Phase 1 trade deal. bit.ly Borrowing plummeted as consumers pulled back credit card use. bit.ly Mortgage forbearance requests plateau. bit.ly Virus shock to reduce some banks’ capital, increase credit vulnerability. bit.ly Industrial Metals Price Index suggests downturn will lack GFC severity. bit.ly Mortgage applications from homebuyers show an improving trend. bit.ly Treasury to issuer longer-dated debt to finance growing deficit. on.mktw.net Sentiment: 23.7% Bullish, 23.7% Neutral, 52.7% Bearish as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 3,754,598,011 as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 44.1% as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: /ES: AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX /NQ: NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX /RTY: AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT /YM: AMEX:DIA DJCFD:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA /GC: AMEX:GLD /CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL /NG: AMEX:UNG /ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik