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USO

THE WEEK AHEAD (PART II): HPQ, CRM, COST, GDXJ/GDX, USO/XOP, EWZEARNINGS: ... with June monthly at-the-money short straddle price as a function of stock price shown: HPQ (38/62), 14.3%: Announces Wednesday before market open. CRM (54/46), 8.7%: Announces Thursday before market open. COST (35/32), 6.5%: Announces Thursday before market open. Notes: Ordinarily, I screen potential earnings announcement volatility contraction plays by rank and for 30-day greater than 50%, but we've had a volatility pop in the last 52-weeks such that implied rank or percentile isn't necessarily as informative as it was. Where this happens, I look at whether the underlying is going to objectively pay or be worthwhile, using the at-the-money short straddle price relative to the stock price in a potential evaluation of that (i.e., the HPQ June at-the-money short straddle is paying 14.3% of the price of the stock). A good rule of thumb is that anything paying below 10% of the stock price is probably not worth it as a volatility contraction play in single name, so HPQ would probably be the only earnings play I'd consider putting on here, with the June 19th 17 short straddle paying 2.42 at the mid price and the skinny June 19th 15.5/19 paying 1.09, although the markets are wide here, so would look to recheck setup pricing running into Tuesday close if you're keen on putting that play on. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY AND ORDERED BY RANK WITH JULY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SHOWN: SLV (48/38), 10.8% EWW (44/42), 11.6% GDXJ (43/61), 17.7% TQQQ (41/87), 24.3% GDX (40/48), 14.5% XBI (38/41), 11.8% EWZ (36/55), 15.2% XLE (35/47), 13.2% SMH (31/28), 11.4% XOP (24/57), 17.1% USO (23/86), 21.8% ... AND ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SCREENED FOR >15%: TQQQ (41/87), 24.3% USO (23/86), 21.8% GDXJ (43/61), 17.7% XOP (24/57), 17.1% EWZ (36/55), 15.2% GDX (40/48), 14.5% Notes: Here, TQQQ looks to provide the best bang for your buck, but I generally shy from leveraged products unless I can't resist doing something in the direction of the way the fund is set up. (See, TQQQ Post Below). Secondarily, USO/XOP have some juice, as do GDXJ/GDX, with the hammered EWZ rounding out the top five. Pictured here is a GDXJ July 17th (53 Days 'Til Expiry) 40/56 short strangle paying 2.75 at the mid price with delta/theta metrics of -1.52/5.55. BROAD MARKET, ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: IWM (47/40), 10.9% QQQ (29/29), 8.3% EFA (29/26), 6.8% SPY (28/29), 7.8% Notes: Here, the juice is in small caps, with the IWM July 17th, 16 delta strike 115/151 short strangle paying 3.39 at the mid price and delta/theta of -.1/8.27. IRA DIVIDEND PAYERS ORDERED BY RANK: EWA (47/39), 36.8% above 52 week lows; IYR (44/36), 31.5% above 52 week lows. XLU (38/25), 30.3% above 52 week lows. EWZ (36/55), 25.1% above 52 week lows. HYG (31/17), 20.5% above 52 week lows. EFA (29/26), 24.6% above 52 week lows. SPY (28/28), 35.4% above 52 week lows. EMB (22/18), 24.6% above 52 week lows. TLT (20/18), 29.2% above 52 week lows. Notes: I'm sticking the "above 52 week lows" out there just to show how much of everything has bounced, so it wouldn't have taken a genius to wade into the market, sell some out-of-the-money short puts in high implied and made out in some fashion. (See IYR, EFA, HYG Short Put Ladder Posts, Below). Conversely, that bounce means that things weren't as cheap as they were at the lows, so it may be time to sit back and wait for another sell-off or high implied event to wade back in with acquisitional setups, with the general elections in November being the next possible opportunity. In the mean time, I'll continue to work the call side in the covered calls I've got on now.
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
TECHNICAL LONG OIL. TINY STOP. GOOD RISK REWARD.A good opportunity has presented itself for a long trade in oil. A mid term trade, from a nice level. First take gives us a roughly 2:1 risk reward and I will be closing half of my position there. Next take is at the first big resistance level. I will close my entire position there. The stop is very short, yet, pay attention, to that it is not ON the level, but slightly BELOW the level. Avoid simple mistakes. Wish you luck!
AMEX:USOLong
by ProSignalsFx
2
LONG UGA @ $8.50#Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures bottom close here at $.54 as gasoline crack spread (difference between spot price of crude oil & gasoline) looks to be bouncing from lows.. Hourly chart showing capitulation volume & bullish RSI divergence suggesting downtrend weakening $UGA $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 10:53AM CST twitter.com There it is.. #Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures likely long-term bottom here @ $.46 with massive capitulation volume & hammer candle rally back over $.50 or $UGA $8.80.. Expect gasoline futures upside rally to backtest 10dayEMA @ $.80 spot price or $14 $UGA stock price $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 1:27PM CST Playing this upside move with UGA October 16th $16 calls @ 1.00 twitter.com
AMEX:UGALong
by CashFlo_Trading
Litecoin Hinted at Bitcoin's Move Up, More to Come?Apologies for not posting yesterday. I was trapped with work and mentally drained from all the news coverage of our Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Honestly, it was a disappointment in terms of price action. For stock market bears, today there has been a lack of follow through to the down side. Yes, that should keep you up at night if you are short this market. The gold breakout was...meh. Oh and Bitcoin did what it does best and filled its ridiculous gap early this morning. Let's get into some charts. Today I'll focus on Litecoin, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, SPDR Gold Shares, and the United States Oil Fund. Litecoin Warned Us and it Delivered A few days ago I posted on how Litecoin was retesting support at 40 and may hint of a Bitcoin rally. I explained that it is informative to use other altcoin charts to gauge the future direction of Bitcoin. We reviewed Litecoin and it delivered. Bitcoin ripped from early week lows and has now filled the infamous 1200 point CME gap. Just ridiculous . However, the Litecoin price is lagging Bitcoin significantly (red flag). Below is the daily chart of Litecoin. As you can see, Litecoin is rallying off the lows but the lack of follow through should be concerning. In the coming week or two there is also the risk of a Head and Shoulders reversal top forming. Could this reversal pattern provide us with another hint for Bitcoin? Below is the daily chart of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Notice the lack of follow through for the bulls on the daily candle close. I view this as a sign of exhaustion which could lead to consolidation or a reversal. GBTC will be an important chart to watch in the coming weeks. For crypto in general, there are signs that are pointing to continued consolidation, with potential of further dips to as low as 6,000. In the meantime continue to BTFD and sell into rallies. Bias: Bearish . Follow through ASAP Maybe I am impatient, but gold needs to follow through asap! Below is the daily view of GLD. What we see here is potentially the next steps to a all-time high test . Momentum is beginning to build as GLD is breaking out from a month long symmetrical triangle. Don't short here, the trend has been bullish and the with the current state of the global economy there may not be a safer place to stack your cash. With that said, there are levels of support I would like GLD to hold. See below the 4-hour chart of GLD. A break below 161 support and there is cause for concern. In the interim my bias remains.... Bias: Bullish . Onto Black Gold I haven't talked about any oil stocks on this channel yet so why not begin with USO. Below is the 4-hour chart of USO. For the last 10 days USO has been in a sideways consolidation known as a rectangle . These types of formations often take form at the beginning of major trends. Last point on rectangle consolidations, is that they rarely have false breakouts outside of the rectangle. Whichever direction USO breaks will likely define the trend. Keep an eye on this chart as it could be a big winner heading into the summer. Short term, Bias: Bullish . Tomorrow is the weekly close. In the morning I'll be reviewing Zoom and possibly Tesla. I hope you have a great evening!
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by DailyClose
1
Still think USO is a great way to invest in Oil?An Interactive Broker trader with a $77,000 account thought he would outsmart every institution and every big Oil trader, the result? A $9 million loss. Well done. IB normally doesn't take beginners, you need 2 years experience to trade FX with them (haven't checked futures so I don't know what the rule is for those), and the min account size is 10,000. This day trader (go figure) thought he was smarter than every one, and he went all in, he bet the farm. This alone is stupid, but he went all in without doing his research! Probably a "technical analyst". Weird, I thought magical esoteric TA told you everything you need to know, that everything was built in the chart and info not in the chart was useless noise. Didn't his magical TA tools tell him it would go negative? Well actually if he looked at the ATR / implied volatility he would have seen.... Even I, that has negative balance protection and guaranteed stops, went on the CME site to check announcements. They don't exactly talk about negative prices nor clearly about limit up limit down, but here, with Oil massive volatility, they did confirm that yes indeed they were prepared for negative prices. Thomas Peterffy (the hungarian market billionaire that is not George Soros) said 5 days wasn't enough for IB to update their platform and that's obviously true. Now maybe they should have warned people with messages on the interface, e-mails, maybe set some hard limit to what their clients can do. Maybe they should have had code ready at all time in case this happens. Maybe they share the fault, maybe not. But anyway, being a customer friendly broker, they absorbed losses over 100 million. Meanwhile I did my research, I shorted June contract and made money, and I'm fighting with my shady broker to withdraw some of my gains... They have been condemned by the french regulators years ago for shady business practices go figure, but every retail broker has! And the vast majority of their clients are retail. I'm waiting and waiting and waiting... I have resisted insulting them or calling the regulator for now. The only other broker to give me a hard time was Kraken. They mention anti laundering laws and more, and I understand, but why be so unclear, and ask for documents 5 times rather than all at once, and why ask for the same documents several time, and why be so difficult, only when someone made money? Short Bitcoin on Kraken which was clearly very pro bull, short Oil on *** which had a massive number of retail short sellers (they were on the June contract thought), and then it's an issue. Never had a single problem buying Bitcoin and sending it to a wallet, never a problem when losing money, extreme ease to deposit and start paying commissions, without any warning "getting it out will be very hard". "It's quick instant easy" ye sure, no it's not. The fund running USO clearly said it was a tool for short term bets. It's not made for massive hoardes of dumb money to buy and hold. They have spread over several months to be more nimble, ye looks like its working great! I heard reverse splits were a good sign, that it was smart to invest in a stock after it made a reverse split. Once again, retail that never in their lives made money consistently, thought they knew better than every one else, and that they would get rich quick. Once again, I warned people with what little visibility I had. Once again I was right and retail is getting wiped out. Bagholders are going to argue, they are going to say "just wait", and any spike up will be their celebration and "told you so" "this is it". Same old story. They'll keep arguing, they'll keep bagholding, they'll keep losing. Dumb money at its finest: never understand when you lost. You can never tell them "told you so" because in their mind it's always just a matter of time. When it gets delisted they'll have no choice but to understand they lost, and still then they'll go full lawsuit and dream of getting their money back. How long for this? 5 years? 10 years? Apple Sapphire screen bagholders as I posted recently have gotten like 4% of their money back on average. An average smart (average of the ones in the top) investor or speculator in 10 years will be up 15% compounded, so +300% (turn the total into 400%), and dumb bagholders that wanted to get rich quick "15% a year looool that's pathetic" will be spending their time in courts and dreaming of getting 4% back (turn the total into 4%). Delusion at its finest. There is no free lunch... If Oil was priced at $0.01 there was a very good reason for it. Oil traders weren't just selling at this price because "emotions" "rsi very oversold". It's so risible that some complete noobs that don't understand anything they are doing thought they are just so much smarter than the market, and that whales were just "being emotional" and selling a barrel of Oil at $5, $3, etc just because they were "scaaaaared". Homer Simpson really thought "Aha! Whales are selling Oil at $1 a barrel but they are scared. I, Homer J Simpson, know something they don't! Oil is worth more. I am a visionary!" It's like when Homer went hunting for a Turkey, he just put a nice plate down with rice and other food in, then shouted "Come on Turkey come join your friends" and pointed the gun towards the plate with a big smile on his face, fully convinced a Turkey would jump in his plate. I thought the Simpsons were ridiculous and overly exagerated when I was a kid. How wrong I was. My broker lets me set an order to short USO. Oh my, I sure know what I'm going to do! 2 possibilities actually. The Difference Between Stupidity and Genius Is That Genius Has Its Limits.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by MrRenev
8
May 10 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: A simplified analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $2965 Low-Volume Area; Targets $2940, $3015; VWAP Feb ‘20 High, Mar ‘20 Low, and Dec ‘18 Low. Technical: Broad market indices, such as the Nasdaq (/NQ), have shown relative strength, trending higher and experiencing muted liquidations. The Russell (/RTY) took back the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) anchored from the Feb ‘20 high, which also corresponds to its 50% fibonacci retracement level. Above current prices is a low-volume area which developed when participants had solid downside directional conviction. The short term strategy is to fade (short resistance, long support). When you trade into an area of low-volume, then sentiment (directional conviction) has changed and movement is swift. In case of the S&P 500, acceptance above Friday’s late-day spike may point to the subsequent penetration of the low-volume area and swift movement to $3015, the other end of that area. Spending minimal time above Friday’s spike base and high would point to rotation back into the high volume area we are attempting to leave. These high-volume areas are sticky, since they develop when prices slow to satisfy two-sided, rotational trade. Last week I said that if the market reverses and overtakes the initiative activity that created the gap, then sentiment has changed. Well, we reversed. Despite the market moving higher on Tuesday, participants did not have enough conviction to follow through. We left behind a thick area of value and an intraday poor high before selling-off on the Fed Clarida doom and gloom news. Excess was established lower, during the overnight session. The type of selling that occured on Tuesday was not accompanied by new money, left value behind, and offered a good opportunity to sell puts or establish some low-risk long positions. On Wednesday, we sold off again, leaving mechanical looking highs. When the following day retraced that selling, the context was there for repair of Tuesday’s high. All this put together, the most important note to be made is Friday’s continuation higher on terrible economic news. If the fundamental context is crap and we go higher, I’m not going to be bearish. In case of upside, targets include $2940 and $3015. On a continuation lower, targets include $2860, $2820, and $2786, the convergence of significant references. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: CPI; Initial Claims; Retail Sales; Industrial Production; UoM Confidence; Inventories; Producer Prices; Import Prices; Earnings. Moody’s projects retail and apparel spec grade default rate to surge. bit.ly European automakers restart production. Demand pickup remains questionable. bit.ly Shell dividend cut good for credit, but highlights downturn severity. bit.ly ISM non-manufacturing index falls as prices rise on increased shipping costs. bit.ly Market priced in negative U.S. interest rates. reut.rs Second phase of reopening to see turnover and employment impact. reut.rs China is not complying with the Phase 1 trade deal. bit.ly Borrowing plummeted as consumers pulled back credit card use. bit.ly Mortgage forbearance requests plateau. bit.ly Virus shock to reduce some banks’ capital, increase credit vulnerability. bit.ly Industrial Metals Price Index suggests downturn will lack GFC severity. bit.ly Mortgage applications from homebuyers show an improving trend. bit.ly Treasury to issuer longer-dated debt to finance growing deficit. on.mktw.net Sentiment: 23.7% Bullish, 23.7% Neutral, 52.7% Bearish as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 3,754,598,011 as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 44.1% as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: /ES: AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX /NQ: NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX /RTY: AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT /YM: AMEX:DIA DJCFD:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA /GC: AMEX:GLD /CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL /NG: AMEX:UNG /ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
USO Bullish: Long 12mos - 24mos Volatile Stock - Invest Smarty!AMEX:USO The U.S. largest oil fund has come under fire as of late. USO’s recent actions to cushion the blow from a historic sell-off in oil markets hit by oversupply and a coronavirus-induced plunge in fuel demand have brought about doubt if the fund can still meet its investment objective of reflecting the spot prices of oil. The fund has been trying to mitigate potential losses from falling crude prices by spreading its holdings through contracts expiring in July, August and September. USO said, "The inability to closely track the benchmark oil futures contract, the changes in its portfolio of investments and the impact of higher levels of contango, will impact the performance of USO and the value of its shares." Many investors have bailed on USO as they understood more about contango. A Seeking Alpha article that described the perils of the futures roll when longer-dated contracts are more expensive than near-term ones. Understanding this motivated many investors to find exposure to oil futures that don’t expire anytime soon such as the United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP (USL), which contains further-out contracts or Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO). Taking into account everything that has occurred over the last few weeks, USO's stock has slightly climbed after executing its reverse split and as oil prices are recovering. You must recognize that the USO fund managers are in survival mode right now and doing everything they can to keep the ETF afloat. USO’s portfolio was moved away from the front-month contracts, which they did ahead of everybody else. As the world continues to battle the COVID pandemic, social distance restrictions are beginning to loosen. However, the recovery for oil will be slow. Oil traders believe it’s likely to take more than a year, and perhaps much longer, before global demand reaches the pre-pandemic levels of roughly 100 million barrels a day. But our world is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels as it is the world's primary energy source. Oil is the world's primary fuel source for transportation and the United States is the world's leader in petroleum consumption. So as the U.S.'s transportation activities recover, so will the USO ETF. My chart analysis sees the stock hitting $32 by January 2021 and expecting to trade above $60 by 2022. I obtained positions in USO when in the stock bottomed out prior to the reverse split and possess several long options at $1.50 & $2.50 calls ($12/$20 with reverse split conversions) that set to expire in 2022. Be effective and trade smartly my friends! I am not a financial advisor. The advice here given is not financial advice even though my excitement might make it look like such. Trade at your own risk and remember nobody can guarantee you results. I conduct analysis and make informed decisions on what I believe is right and at the end of the day, I am just a person, not an expert. Again, this is my belief, a belief of an ordinary man, who just works hard and enjoys the pleasures of swing trading personally. Darell
AMEX:USOLong
by mykonchince
May 3 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 4/29 Rejection; 2780 Gap; 5/1 Split b-Shape Profile. Technical: Other broad market indices, such as the Nasdaq have shown extreme relative strength in the weeks prior, with the /NQ spending a significant amount of time building value above it’s 61.8% retracement, a bullish sign. Indices such as the NYSE Composite paint a picture of relative weakness. On the last two days of April, the S&P 500 failed to break into a low-volume area, a space that often serves as strong resistance or support. Wednesday trade seemed a tad excessive, putting in a p-shape profile on higher volume, a sign of strong long-side participation and short-covering. Technically, the market ended its advance from the March 23 low, as signaled by the failed break higher from last-week’s balance zone (more in last week’s post) and Friday’s gap open. Friday’s gap (a signal that we’re out of balance) was formed by larger players that perceived value away from price. The right move at the open was to wait since many gaps are filled in morning trade. Obviously, responsive participants failed to close the gap and the market continued lower to a high-volume area. Friday’s b-shaped, multi-distribution profile points to liquidation of old longs and emotional participation. Additionally, the profile is split and rounded at the bottom (i.e., market got too short). Since the market is too short, I’d expect some sort of quick snap higher, up to the low-volume split (i.e., resistance) or 2860. The low is a structure that will most likely be repaired in subsequent sessions. The broad market appears ripe for a pullback. In case of upside, target is 2860. On a continuation lower, targets include 2787 (convergence of significant references), 2633 (top of prior-balance), and 2566 (half of the 3/23-4/29 advance). If the market reverses and overtakes the initiative activity that created the gap, then sentiment has changed. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: April Employment; ISM Non Manufacturing; ADP Employment; Trade Data; Earnings. Overwriter flows to cut volatility; if gamma flips long, then speculate with cheap calls. bit.ly If the market slips into short gamma, then it’s possible to get another push lower. bit.ly Yield volatility further muted due to success of Fed action. bloom.bg Investor confidence high despite lower sentiment amongst business owners. bit.ly Alongside soaring cloud usage, new contracts from bigger clients drop-off. reut.rs U.S. threatens tariffs on China over virus outbreak. reut.rs Sprint lost 350K phone subscribers last quarter. reut.rs Britain hires Morgan Stanley for help on its aviation rescue plan. reut.rs Fed, ECB, BoJ hone in on improved lending, bond-buying. bit.ly Main Street Lending program improves access to “bottomless supply of cheap capital” (bit.ly). ECB cut rates and introduced new facilities to ensure financing of the real economy. bloom.bg Gold and natural gas to benefit in the face of economic weakness. bit.ly Increased bond issuance will come alongside massive future downgrades. bit.ly Even after the reopening, the economy will be “shackled to only 25-50%” (bit.ly). Fed action has diminishing returns; “I fear the effects will be short-lived” (bit.ly). Despite the downturn, startups are hiring and raising funds. bit.ly U.S. tells Saudi Arabia to cut oil supply or lose military support. reut.rs OPEC+ cuts for May, June total 9.7 million barrels per day ($USO, $USL, $DBO). tmsnrt.rs Boeing ($BA) and Embraer ($ERJ) deal scrapped, freeing up cash. bit.ly Auto loan extensions to slow note payments, increase borrower distress. bit.ly China reforms for small banks lowers risk from coronavirus disruption. bit.ly Great Migration: Coronavirus to cause shifts in population density. bit.ly Sentiment: 30.6% Bullish, 25.4% Neutral, 44.0% Bearish as of 5/1/2020 (bit.ly). Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 721,282,138 as of 5/1/2020 (bit.ly). Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 48.3% as of 5/1/2020 (bit.ly). Index Analysis: $SPX: TVC:SPX $NDX: TVC:NDX $RUT: TVC:RUT $DJI: TVC:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA $UKX: TVC:UKX $NI225: TVC:NI225 $HSI: TVC:HSI Futures Analysis: /GC: AMEX:GLD /CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL /NG: AMEX:UNG /ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
Red alert: Idiots are selling! [Entertainment & lesson]We have a code red. I repeat, we have a code red. I can barely breathe! 🤣 I'm crying After USO had their reverse split, the price gapped up. You can check it on robintrack, first there was a strong decline which might be all the people so wiped out they could only afford <8 shares (LOL), but then even after this it keeps going down! robintrack.net It only went up before you can check for yourself. Since february they have only kept buying, the number of holders line never went down even for a day no matter what. And now even after the initial drop that might be explained for other reasons number of holders went down by ~7% There is only 1 explanation: These masterminds thought the price really went up, and they outsmarted institutions, and have locked up profit 😆 Now I don't know if Robinhood had an erronous display, or if they only show the gains since the split maybe (so investors saw green and thought they got their money back), perhaps some are doing "automated trading"? All I know is the price rallied up because of a reverse split and a group of people known to be stupid and have been strictly buying for 2 months without even 1 day of pause, have started selling. These can't be humans... They must be... something else... Hey so if a really solid company made a 1 > 10 split all the animals would be aggressively buying thinking the price dropped 90%? Making money in markets isn't that hard if you take it seriously, just look what kind of absolute imbeciles we are playing against!
AMEX:USOEducation
by MrRenev
14