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USO

Red alert: Idiots are selling! [Entertainment & lesson]We have a code red. I repeat, we have a code red. I can barely breathe! 🤣 I'm crying After USO had their reverse split, the price gapped up. You can check it on robintrack, first there was a strong decline which might be all the people so wiped out they could only afford <8 shares (LOL), but then even after this it keeps going down! robintrack.net It only went up before you can check for yourself. Since february they have only kept buying, the number of holders line never went down even for a day no matter what. And now even after the initial drop that might be explained for other reasons number of holders went down by ~7% There is only 1 explanation: These masterminds thought the price really went up, and they outsmarted institutions, and have locked up profit 😆 Now I don't know if Robinhood had an erronous display, or if they only show the gains since the split maybe (so investors saw green and thought they got their money back), perhaps some are doing "automated trading"? All I know is the price rallied up because of a reverse split and a group of people known to be stupid and have been strictly buying for 2 months without even 1 day of pause, have started selling. These can't be humans... They must be... something else... Hey so if a really solid company made a 1 > 10 split all the animals would be aggressively buying thinking the price dropped 90%? Making money in markets isn't that hard if you take it seriously, just look what kind of absolute imbeciles we are playing against!
AMEX:USOEducation
by MrRenev
14
Surely USO can't go to $0... RIGHT???The title was at least my reasoning on the trade... On April 20th, as the big news was that Oil was quickly becoming "free" I wanted to participate in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. My preferred instrument to trade oil has always been USO as it is an equity, optionable, and highly liquid. At the time USO was trading at 3.8. I decided to sell the 2.5 June Put Options as my trade. I reasoned that such a big fund as USO "could not go to $0" and I was OK with owning it at 2.5. I might have to wait but people are eventually going to burn off all this oil and need more in the future. On April 21st, a day after my trade, a headline read "OIL, One Of The Largest Oil ETNs, Will Be Shut Down And Liquidated". Wow, so oil ETNs *CAN* stop trading and go to $0. The next day April 22nd, USO announced that it would be doing a reverse 1-to-8 split. This would severely complicate my trade were I to receive fractional options and/or shares. Annoying. Overall I am not all that worried about the prospects of this trade. I was actually given a bit of a lucky reprieve in that when I took the trade my initial order only got a partial fill. As my remaining order sat there outstanding I decided to just close the rest of it. This momentary decision of general risk aversion fortuitously kept me small; small enough to be able to sit back as an intrigued participant rather than a nervous stake holder. As Carl Icahn said last week as he became the counterparty to the negative oil futures delivery this is a "once in-a-lifetime bargain". I think despite the FUD he is right. Despite the unique pressures of current events our modern civilization's thirst for energy has not fundamentally changed for the long term.
AMEX:USOLong
by norok
April 26 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 2730-2845 Balance Zone; Targets 2930, 2630; CBOE:VIX at 36. Technical: Nasdaq leading to the upside, with a complete retracement of Thursday’s news-driven sell-off. Market is balancing, leveraging time to correct, rather than price. Composite profile (2/19-4/24) POC at 50% retracement. Additionally, YTD VWAP lies nearby, a clue to why prices are so rotational here. Read more about VWAP here: bit.ly Despite terrible news, the market held up fairly well. On 4/17, /ES met it’s measured move, piercing into an area of low volume which served as resistance. Market quickly liquidated to the 2730 area and was not met with new selling. Instead, in subsequent trading, prices and value shifted higher, above the 50% retracement. Aside from remaining in balance, the market could extend directionally, or extend and return to balance quickly. Taking out 2730, downside target at 2630, a low volume area that could serve as support. Breaking above 2845, also an area of low volume on the composite profile, target 2930. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: Central Bank Meetings; Initial Claims, Earnings; GDP; Home Sales; PCE; Consumer Confidence; Personal Income; Construction Spending; Vehicle Sales; ISM Manufacturing. Who’s Winning: Remote Work (e.g., Zoom, Slack, Microsoft, Facebook), Cloud (e.g., Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure), Telemedicine (bit.ly). Tickers: NASDAQ:ZM , NYSE:WORK , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AMZN Who’s Losing: Software (e.g., Google Chrome), Video Games (e.g., Sony), Hardware, Camera (e.g., GoPro), Manufacturing (e.g., Boeing, Ford, GM, U.S. Steel), and more (bit.ly). TICKERS: NYSE:SNE , NASDAQ:GPRO , NYSE:F , NYSE:GM , NYSE:X Gamma Trap: Despite terrible news, major market indices ended the week practically unchanged. This comes as SPX 2,800 emerges as the neutral gamma zone. A close above $2813 SPX would “push dealer gamma in the green, creating a feedback loop whereby higher prices result in even higher prices as dealers are forced to chase the market higher” (bit.ly). TICKERS: AMEX:SPY , TVC:SPX The Bear’s Case: “In view of how the equity market was recently up by 25.6% from its March 23 low, it should be mentioned that during the equity market’s long trek to its March 2009 trough, at one point (on January 6, 2009 to be exact) the equity market was up by an even greater 26.3% from its then low of November 20, 2008. As it turned out, the U.S, equity market sank by 27.3% from January 6, 2009’s misleading high to March 9, 2009’s bottom. Thus, even a 26% jump by the equity market from a bottom does not necessarily obviate the impending formation of an even lower trough.” Read More Here: bit.ly The Bull’s Case: "The market is loudly saying the Fed Bazooka worked to turn the tide, and risk assets are going higher.” (bit.ly). "If this bear market was much shorter than other , it’s because the speed and magnitude of Fed actions." "Negative data is the reality around market bottoms. If this rally continues, the negative data will become less bad on the margin over the next several months. In 2009, the market started rallying in March and the non-farm payrolls report didn’t turn positive until November." "If the Fed has successfully started to reflate the economy as many assets suggest, the bond market will need to confirm this trend." "If bond yields don’t start moving higher in the next 4 weeks, this would be a major signal that the reflation trade is not working." Crisis Averted: In New York, the risk of hospital overflowings was never realized and states are showing a genuine interest in getting back to work. "The scenes in Michigan and elsewhere show genuine hunger to resume working." "Wuhan gives us clear evidence that things can reopen within 90 days. Again, this is much better than the worst scenarios." Read More Here: bit.ly Oil: Dislocations within physical markets remain, a negative for short-term price volatility and the spread between WTI and Brent. Adding, “US crude prices below $30/barrel (bbl) in the second quarter of 2020, and oil prices beneath the cash cost of production will lead US oil and gas producers to keep announcing deep cuts in capital spending. Such spending cuts will accelerate the decline in US oil production in 2020 and into 2021,” a downside for oil prices in 2020, even with the expected decline in supply (bit.ly). Moody’s Energy Downgrades: bit.ly Citi on the ‘New World of Petroleum’: citi.us Short puts in /CL worth the risk? Check out the statistics here: bit.ly What Oil ETFs To Invest In (HINT: Avoid $USO): bit.ly TICKERS: $CL1!, $DBO, $USL /CL To /GC: “Realistically, a dramatic breakdown in the gold market (which might actually present as a super-spike) can’t be viewed as highly likely. But then again, an infectious disease epidemic wasn’t included in most 2020 pricing models either, nor was negative-priced crude. While it may not seem likely, one can see how a dislocation in the gold market, one starving for physical gold, could result in a strong, unexpected rally—the exact opposite of what has occurred in a flooded crude oil market.” Read more here: bit.ly TICKER: $GC1!, $GLD Steel: “The U.S. steel industry has fallen into its most severe downturn since the 2008 financial crisis. United States Steel Corp., ArcelorMittal and other steelmakers are ratcheting back output and shedding workers, anticipating that orders and prices will fall further” (bit.ly). Trade: “There were high hopes that China's commitment to $200 billion of increased spending on U.S. agriculture, energy, manufacturing and services as part of the ‘phase one’ trade deal would help make farmers whole. But as the virus outbreak rattled Chinese demand, those planned purchases evaporated” (bit.ly). Treasury Run: Expectation for a sustained rise in Treasuries (mostly longer-dated maturities) remains as economic rebound expectations become more delayed (bit.ly). Yields: “An unfolding global recession will rein in Treasury bond yields. As long as the global economy operates below trend, the 10-year Treasury yield may not remain above 1.25% for long. Until COVID-19 risks fade, substantially wider credit spreads are possible” (bit.ly). Bond Credit: COVID-19 to strain sovereign and bank credit quality in Europe, a negative for covered bond credit. On the other hand, “covered bonds will continue to benefit from systemic support amid the coronavirus disruptions - as occurred during previous crises - which will help support overall credit quality” (bit.ly). Earnings: Boeing, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Exxon, Chevron to post slowdowns or losses in certain categories. Microsoft, Spotify, Qualcomm and Amazon earnings likely to show gains in certain categories. Read More Here: tmsnrt.rs TICKERS: NYSE:BA , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOGL , NASDAQ:FB , NYSE:XOM , NYSE:CVX Unemployment: True number of people unemployed between 32-70 million people (i.e., 20-45% unemployment rate), according to Axios (bit.ly). Liquidity: Desire to assure adequate liquidity during has prompted a temporary surge by IG bond offerings (bit.ly). Typically, alongside a rise in corporate bond issuance comes the refinancing of “outstanding short-term debt, such as commercial paper, as long-term fixed-rate bonds in order to eliminate the risk of not being able to roll-over very short-dated credit market instruments. Once the recession subsides and the return of profits growth is visible, the imperative to buttress liquidity fades and IG bond issuance sinks as was the case during the 12-months-ended June 2010.” Rescue Package: House approved a $480 billion coronavirus rescue package that provides aid to SMEs and hospitals. Additionally, the bill will provide a $320 billion infusion for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) which ran out of money last week. Read More Here: politi.co Check Out Moody’s PPP Breakdown Here: bit.ly Hubei: The epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak had its economy shrink by 40%, the largest drop for any province since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Consumer Sentiment: “Morning Consult finds respondents are showing increasing optimism about the future, as the number of people who say they expect to be worse off in a year has consistently declined,” since sentiment hit a low April 7 (bit.ly). Money Market Flows: “A record $4.65 trillion is now held in money market funds. That's around $700 billion more than the peak level seen during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis” (bit.ly). Farming: U.S. family farmers filed 595 bankruptcies in 2019, up from 498 filings in 2018 (reut.rs). Adding, the USDA announced a $19B support program for farmers and ranchers, helping soften the blow to demand for many agricultural commodities (bit.ly). Moreover, the two prior pieces of news come alongside the closing of major meat plants across the United States, which may net higher meat prices in the long-term (bit.ly). Note: “The Farm Credit System is also strongly capitalized, a credit positive, in the event that its credit costs rise materially” (bit.ly). TICKERS: AMEX:DBA Startup Funding: Crunchbase projects $34.5 billion was invested in North American startups in Q1 2020, up 2% year over year. The increase is attributable to late-stage venture funding. Read Here: bit.ly Sentiment: 24.9% Bullish, 25.1% Neutral, 50.0% Bearish as of 4/25/2020 (bit.ly). Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,264,910,712 as of 4/25/2020 (bit.ly). Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 44% as of 4/25/2020 (bit.ly). Index Analysis: $SPX: TVC:SPX $NDX: TVC:NDX $RUT: TVC:RUT $DJI: TVC:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA $UKX: TVC:UKX $NI225: TVC:NI225 $HSI: TVC:HSI Futures Analysis: /GC: AMEX:GLD /CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO NASDAQ:USLV /NG: AMEX:UNG /ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
Potential long term view of some key marketsUSO: Line of support under $0.00 (if that's possible). This line could be forming basis for up sloping PF and the lower parallel CL1!: Biggest question is if median line holds this drop or if a decade of sub $0.00 prices is setting up. If next several months hold above the red median line then price could move off it. If April and ensuing months close below the median line the a test of last weeks low could be possible. SPX: If current levels holds then another try at 3340 early in coming year. XAUUSD: It looks like Gold is bullish well through 2020 and into 2021 maybe target in $2060 area
AMEX:USO
by mxb1961
1
$USO $3.5c 4/24 Short-Term SwingUSO continues to follow the purple downtrend I drew last week. The short term bull trend couldn't hold and today opened below the support levels (shown as 1st the horizonal purple line). I was able to get cheap $3.5 calls at market open, and could've taken a 75% profit but decided to chase more gains (bad move) and the market closed with my options up about 30% instead. I'll be watching market open tomorrow to see if it'll be possible to squeeze some more profits out before selling. If not, I'll be selling before I get into the red.
AMEX:USOLong
by CameronDWills
1
USO - Long Hold. Amazing what is happening with OIL. especially USO. I know there is a lot of fear in the market...but imagine you were sitting on some cash (cause you listened to Matt about financial markets being overbought and you protected yourself). Imagine you bought USO at this level...imagine in 10-15-20 years what that position could look like? Sure we could all go electric, not happening anytime soon. Plus everything is made of plastics (reality). Sure we could run out of oil...wouldn't that drive prices up? Sure we could go lower, more upside than downside from my analysis. I see this as an amazing place to buy this equity, I will ride whatever drawdown comes and be holding for 10+ years. Good luck out there...these are crazy times. but acutely crazy and we shall all be on our feet again soon(ish) I hope! -Matthew Armstrong - CFTe
AMEX:USOLong
by MattArmstrong
30
I Think USO Will Go Down, So Naturally I'm Buying USO CallsWho really needs OIL anymore? We have the sweat and tears of the new investors trying to figure out this market, right? Wrong! Donald J Trump, chicken nugget of the United States of America, is running out of baby batter. A glowing tan is important for president, if not, how can be young and nimble? Answer: CANT. Ok let's predent do some technical analysis: Fibonacci. Now that we did that let's get serious. Dodo will buy oil from oil place while it's still inside the comfortable cradles of the oil mine, ok? We do that to save the workers cuz if you buy that oil and say, hey bro, ima buy such cheap oils from you rn but you dont have to mined it yet, then you dont has to put that oil in a tanker or nothing just leave it there bro and we will take it in a few years when it's, idk, maybe 50 bux or something (lol jk but really tho). You ask, coinholio, my gentle tard, does this mean that economy will be save? Answer: no. Oil companies will get boughten the oil because jaret kushner will read this post and think its good idea (so meta, but that's ok, he won't read the whole thing he's kinda got ADHD and at this point he is already jacking it on henta hevaen). Basically they will boughted all this oil and then oil company will be all, well, they boughted all this oil, but do we really wanna pay these guys all these moni for nothing when they aren't doing no work? So they make fired and pass cost up to tax payeds and people say "oh well they did their best". OK so but what about contigo and all that stuff. There's no time for coffee right now. The USO will just change the rules and say hey you know what, we don't like the rules so lets do something else. See, no more contigo issues. Drink tea and marmalade. Basically I applied to MAC DONALDS as a second job now because I boughten over ONE THOUSAND dollar of these calls options. I don't really think that oil will go to that high, to be TBH with you, but the important part is that some one just a bit smarter than me will think it will, and then we can sell these option to thems people (again, im glad jaret doesn't read too much). Thank you for watching my video, please like and subscribe. Online peoples approval very important stuff, especially in these trying times. Remember that wen ppls say to do something, do the opposite. Except for wen I do it, then do it, because I want you to do the opposite it is REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY. The only way to win is to do double reverse psychologyies. Remember I already boughted these so in order to get moni you need to buy now! USO $5 5/15 100
AMEX:USOLong
by coinhoIio
10