Oil looking like a pullbackCertainly with the fall two days ago a bounce could be expected but now a declining wedge appears to be forming. I have had to extrapolate the lower resistance but that's essentially what it will probably look like.
USO
🤔 Keep An Eye On Oil. (USO)💰 LET'S GET INTO SOME OIL ANALYSIS!💰
1️⃣ First off SMASH that LIKE BUTTON & Give us a FOLLOW for DAILY ANALYSIS! ❤❤❤
(Overall Market Sentiment) 🐻 Bearish
- 3day Chart
- Doji Compression
- 3/3 EMA DOTS Red
Potential double top as oil takes a 5% hit today. Take entry based off indicators and add the breakout on the range drawn for extra confirmation on trend.
Best of luck to you and all of your trades this week! 🤜
Drop your charts and comments down below, share with us what you think is going on in the markets! ❤❤❤
Thanks for checking out our analysis! ✌😁✌
🥇MLT | MAJOR LEAGUE TRADER
Cup and handle OXY 20 Jun 2020Typical textbook entry. Will you take this trade? Let me know below. ?
Crude Oil - Wait for it...$40+ seems imminent however, looks like a pullback is likely.
Alternatively, if there is a daily candle close above $40 that might be good enough for me to start buying.
$USO ETF (OIL) - Trend Strength Test$USO ETF (OIL) price action has set a temporary Support level in the 25.83 to 25.97 range.
A test of Resistance above in the 27.21 to 28 range is possible. USO has been in an uptrend for the past month.
Resistances: 26.82 and 27.21 and 28.
Supports: 25.96 and 25.83 and 25.
Brent Crude Oil Forecasted to New ATHsABCDE correction complete at E with divergence and upthrust therefrom.
Oil Go Drip! (USO)😯 Uh oh! It seems to be that oil has broke upward support.
Now it seems to be treating support as resistance.
With a potential Elliott 5 Wave completion.
Would not be surprised if it dumped.
27.58 needs to hold.
Break below 27 is a short.
Bear > Bull
Best of luck! 🎲
🥇MLT | MAJOR LEAGUE TRADER
USOIL - Buy OpportunityPrice has been in a strong uptrend. We are expecting price to retrace to our highlighted area and we'll be looking for buy entries there.
We're expecting price to at least its recent high
I'll sell you a barrel and a dream! These rising wedges typically do not end well. The MACD is tired and looking to roll over. Lets see what shakes out. Daddy needs a new pair of shoes
USO ETF Resumes Trading Oil Futures - 155% Price IncreaseFollowing temporary suspension of trading new oil futures contracts for all institutional and private customers by USO's broker RBC, USO has secured a second broker, RCG, to allow the trading of new oil futures contracts by USO , effective May 29, 2020.
In addition to the buying and selling of new oil futures contracts under RCG, USO still maintains full rollover capabilities of preexisting oil futures contracts, prior to May 23, 2020, maintained, and brokered, under RBC .
From the market low of $16.88 on April 28, 2020, USO has seen a 155% increase on price, as of June 2, 2020.
With economic recovery, and an increased demand for oil , poised to dominate the summer season, outlooks for holders of USO ETF are promising.
Purchasing puts on USO for the month of May.April's candle closed below March's candle. The next factor I look for is for price to return to March's lows. If price does this, then I will be looking to begin purchasing puts at the 32.00 strike with an early June expiration.
Welp. USO got permabanned from trading Oil.Extremely popular ETF among retail investors United States Oil Fund got banned from trading Oil. Less than 1 month after a 1 to 8 reverse split.
The number of holders on Robinhood, a popular broker among retail investors, has been going up despite all the negative news.
Actually it has been going up more the more negative news there have been.
How to write about this without looking sarcastic or making it look like a parody? I assure you all I am writting is true.
With Oil prices crashing the ETF saw about 2 months ago a massive influx of investors and hit their limit.
They have responded (after losing alot of their investors money and getting limited by the CME & regulators) by spreading their positions over several months.
On April 29th they did a, 8 to 1 reverse split to not get delisted. The price has kept going up since then, perhaps because of all the investors with less than 8 shares that bought back in.
According to a Thursday SEC filing made by the ETF, RBC Capital Markets, their broker, has informed the fund running USO that they could no longer buy oil futures and not even hold oil positions. USO response has been to say they may hold larger amounts of cash & cash equivalents and treasuries (zero or even negative yielding US treasuries).
RBC reason is speaking in layman terms to not end up like Lehman Brothers.
Despite being down 75% YTD USO AUM have quadrupled (and would have done more than this had they not hit the limit).
ycharts.com
RobinTrack data shows that the number of accounts holding USO has soared by about 2000% since March.
So... if they are at the limit, they money they lose can be replenished by new buyers and they can remain at the upper limit forever? (As long as new buyers join).
They might have to redesign their offer, since they cannot hold oil anymore. I guess they're just going to hold "investors" money in cash & bonds while collecting fees.
Let's see what the regulators say. People wanted to buy Oil but we all know they just want to buy something deep in the red and even if the ETF changes they are not going to sell because they enjoy holding losers. They might even be interested to buy more. Seriously. The keyword is "emotional" but better than this would be "irrational" and even better - I have to - is my own description "complete morons".
Of course technical analysts do not need to read the news and knew all of this before it even happened thanks to their magical little oscillators and tools.
Retail investors are unphased and ignoring this "FUD". I expect them to buy more, probably expecting an investment in their own money at a fee to magically go up.
When I'm doing my research I'm angry and ranting half of the time but also I'm just laughing in front of my screen half of the time. I love my 'job'.
Oil (4H) / Primary Elliott Wave Count. Beware of Alternates!Oil is tricky, as always. Plenty of possibilities here. We could be in a traditional impulse with an extended W3 (instead of an impulse with an extended 5th, typical of oil prices). Another possibility is that we would be starting the C leg of a flat 2 relatively soon. If the indices are at the beginning of their W3, the latest may be in play in oil.
THE WEEK AHEAD (PART II): HPQ, CRM, COST, GDXJ/GDX, USO/XOP, EWZEARNINGS:
... with June monthly at-the-money short straddle price as a function of stock price shown:
HPQ (38/62), 14.3%: Announces Wednesday before market open.
CRM (54/46), 8.7%: Announces Thursday before market open.
COST (35/32), 6.5%: Announces Thursday before market open.
Notes: Ordinarily, I screen potential earnings announcement volatility contraction plays by rank and for 30-day greater than 50%, but we've had a volatility pop in the last 52-weeks such that implied rank or percentile isn't necessarily as informative as it was. Where this happens, I look at whether the underlying is going to objectively pay or be worthwhile, using the at-the-money short straddle price relative to the stock price in a potential evaluation of that (i.e., the HPQ June at-the-money short straddle is paying 14.3% of the price of the stock).
A good rule of thumb is that anything paying below 10% of the stock price is probably not worth it as a volatility contraction play in single name, so HPQ would probably be the only earnings play I'd consider putting on here, with the June 19th 17 short straddle paying 2.42 at the mid price and the skinny June 19th 15.5/19 paying 1.09, although the markets are wide here, so would look to recheck setup pricing running into Tuesday close if you're keen on putting that play on.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY AND ORDERED BY RANK WITH JULY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SHOWN:
SLV (48/38), 10.8%
EWW (44/42), 11.6%
GDXJ (43/61), 17.7%
TQQQ (41/87), 24.3%
GDX (40/48), 14.5%
XBI (38/41), 11.8%
EWZ (36/55), 15.2%
XLE (35/47), 13.2%
SMH (31/28), 11.4%
XOP (24/57), 17.1%
USO (23/86), 21.8%
... AND ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SCREENED FOR >15%:
TQQQ (41/87), 24.3%
USO (23/86), 21.8%
GDXJ (43/61), 17.7%
XOP (24/57), 17.1%
EWZ (36/55), 15.2%
GDX (40/48), 14.5%
Notes: Here, TQQQ looks to provide the best bang for your buck, but I generally shy from leveraged products unless I can't resist doing something in the direction of the way the fund is set up. (See, TQQQ Post Below).
Secondarily, USO/XOP have some juice, as do GDXJ/GDX, with the hammered EWZ rounding out the top five.
Pictured here is a GDXJ July 17th (53 Days 'Til Expiry) 40/56 short strangle paying 2.75 at the mid price with delta/theta metrics of -1.52/5.55.
BROAD MARKET, ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
IWM (47/40), 10.9%
QQQ (29/29), 8.3%
EFA (29/26), 6.8%
SPY (28/29), 7.8%
Notes: Here, the juice is in small caps, with the IWM July 17th, 16 delta strike 115/151 short strangle paying 3.39 at the mid price and delta/theta of -.1/8.27.
IRA DIVIDEND PAYERS ORDERED BY RANK:
EWA (47/39), 36.8% above 52 week lows;
IYR (44/36), 31.5% above 52 week lows.
XLU (38/25), 30.3% above 52 week lows.
EWZ (36/55), 25.1% above 52 week lows.
HYG (31/17), 20.5% above 52 week lows.
EFA (29/26), 24.6% above 52 week lows.
SPY (28/28), 35.4% above 52 week lows.
EMB (22/18), 24.6% above 52 week lows.
TLT (20/18), 29.2% above 52 week lows.
Notes: I'm sticking the "above 52 week lows" out there just to show how much of everything has bounced, so it wouldn't have taken a genius to wade into the market, sell some out-of-the-money short puts in high implied and made out in some fashion. (See IYR, EFA, HYG Short Put Ladder Posts, Below). Conversely, that bounce means that things weren't as cheap as they were at the lows, so it may be time to sit back and wait for another sell-off or high implied event to wade back in with acquisitional setups, with the general elections in November being the next possible opportunity. In the mean time, I'll continue to work the call side in the covered calls I've got on now.
TECHNICAL LONG OIL. TINY STOP. GOOD RISK REWARD.A good opportunity has presented itself for a long trade in oil.
A mid term trade, from a nice level. First take gives us a roughly 2:1 risk reward and I will be closing half of my position there.
Next take is at the first big resistance level. I will close my entire position there.
The stop is very short, yet, pay attention, to that it is not ON the level, but slightly BELOW the level.
Avoid simple mistakes.
Wish you luck!
LONG UGA @ $8.50#Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures bottom close here at $.54 as gasoline crack spread (difference between spot price of crude oil & gasoline) looks to be bouncing from lows.. Hourly chart showing capitulation volume & bullish RSI divergence suggesting downtrend weakening $UGA $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 10:53AM CST
twitter.com
There it is.. #Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures likely long-term bottom here @ $.46 with massive capitulation volume & hammer candle rally back over $.50 or $UGA $8.80.. Expect gasoline futures upside rally to backtest 10dayEMA @ $.80 spot price or $14 $UGA stock price $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 1:27PM CST
Playing this upside move with UGA October 16th $16 calls @ 1.00
twitter.com
